Adding:
0.574 units on Vemola by TKO/KO at +240 to win 1.378 units.
0.574 units on Vemola by TKO/KO at +240 to win 1.378 units.
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Adding:
1.5 units on Benevidez/Wineland to Go the Distance at -137.5 to win 1.091 units.Comment -
Yeah his grappling is legit - high level Judo (which Greg Jackson has confirmed) and solid BJJ. He's choked out a decent prospect as well in Jacob Kirwan in his last fight. Kirwan was a Maryland State Wrestling Champ, won 1st place in the 2008 Naga World Championships, 1st place at 2008 Grapplers Quest U.S. Nationals Advanced light weight Division. Kirwan has also submitted both BJJ Black Belt Daniel Morales and Kevin Roddy who was a Kurt Pellegrino Brown Belt. So I'd say Hettes credentials are legit or at least better than Bruce Leroy's!Comment -
Adding:
8.1 units on Hardy at Evens to win 8.1 units.
May well regret this but I'm not ready to give up on Hardy yet! I really don't see Lytle tryin to take Hardy down and not convinced he even could if he tried. Hardy's weakness is the double-leg which GSP and AJ exploited, Lytle is not the type of fighter to shoot a double leg. I'm counting on a combination of Lytle not being 100% and Hardy being smart and throwing a lot of leg kicks at Lytle's dodgy knees and using his reach and size advantage to land more shots standing.Comment -
Lytle vs Davis...
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lytle is saying that he believes that dana put him in the main event for a reason....and that reason is that he knows that lytle gives the fans what they want.....he`s basically promised the fans a throw down.....
somehow,i believe lytle when he says something....it makes it a more difficult fight for him....but you have to admire the guy`s loyalty to the organization and his sack.......
was pretty ambivalent toward lytle prior to reading the comments below...always respected him as a fighter....but i have new found respect for him...he may well be setting himself up for a loss(i`m admittedly on hardy,so it benefits me),but that kind of loyalty is hard to come by....if he beats hardy in a throwdown,back and forth fan friendly fight,i think i`ll be quite satisfied to lose my wager...
but i hope dana doesn`t do anything stupid if lytle loses.....guys like lytle(who have given the ufc a long history of good work)deserve some loyalty in return...
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Yeah Lytle said before the Davis fight that they'd keep it standing and whoever took it to the ground first was a pussy (not so much in those words!) and we all saw how that played out! No doubt that Lytle will play the company man, same as Franklin, he knows he's not gonna get a title shot so might as well entertain the fans and look for bonuses and keep the boss happy. No way he gets cut if he loses, only way he leaves UFC is if he retires, which is very possible if he loses this. Have a feeling he may well follow Matt Hamill's lead.Comment -
u like jim miller then?Comment -
ha We shall see Mr Jesus, I may well be off on this.
If anything I'd say Hardy has better chance of winning the Rnd 3 as he gets stronger the longer the fight goes while Lytle get's slower the longer fights go. Lytle has always had less luck with more technical strikers, he got soundly counter-punched by Marcus Davis, IMO and many others should of lost the fight to Paul Taylor (Taylor won the 2nd and 3rd round) and Thiago Alves finished him. He also got dominated in first round against Kevin Burns and lost first round against Matt Brown. As the Davis fight showed, Lytle leaves himself open to taking knees to the body and sound counter-striking in general - areas that Hardy is effective in.Comment -
I don't have a play on him, he's a fighter I admire a lot and is the better fighter all round than Henderson. Problem is that this fight is likely to go distance, and I feel Miller is due to be on the wrong end of a close decision, and could well end up being this fight due to how it matches up stylistically. I'd rather not dice with the erratic tendencies of judges by picking either fighter straight-up and instead took Fight to go distance when it first came out at -150 and -155.Comment -
Exactly my thinking on this fight, I stay away from most award fight props, but I think this could be fight of the night, or a SLIGHT chance one of them pulls off a sub somehow (because they both have great BJJ, offensively and defensively) it's gonna be tough to top in terms of sub of the night... probably will stay away, or possibly lay a little on Benderson.
V, any thoughts about the Strikeforce Challengers card...I'm staring right at the Villefort line, and need someone who I know knows something to talk me out of throwing him into a parlay with one or more of the fights from the UFC Live 5 card. Nate James is unremarkable in every sense of the word, is 5 years older, and hasn't fought anyone worth anything, and I can throw Villefort in at ~-270 to a parlay...what am I missing hereComment -
Funny shit...
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Yeah spot on, defo a small chance one of them gets a submission, more likely Miller but as you say both have excellent defence.
Not really looked at tht Strikeforce Challengers card, but yeah Villefort at anything better than -300 would be decent parlay material. Nate James is a considerable step down from his last two opponents who he beat - Horwich and Villasenor.Comment -
Im also on Hardy, he is younger, faster, have better footwork and cardio. And with that reach advantage I feel he will have the edge if it stays standing even tho Lytle is always a game opponent and no slouch on the feet. You make a good point regarding the double leg TD. Besides Lytle hardly ever shoots for takedowns.Comment -
Adding:
0.2 units on Volkmann by Submission at +550 to win 1.1 units.Comment -
Got a measly 0.2 units on it at +550 due my limits on paddy. He could latch on to something for sure, Castillo has been caught before by Roller and Cerrone so can't count out Volkmann doing the same.Comment -
Adding:
Parlay: 3.097 units on Hettes (-390), Sadollah/Ludwig to Not go the Distance (+115), Not Hardy by Submission (-2000), Schaub Inside the Distance (+133), & Andre Ward by Decision (-185) to win 28.434 units.
Have arbed out of my Sadollah/Ludwig to not go distance plays with a combination of Sadollah by decision at +125 and Fight to go OVer 2.5 rounds at +131 on pinnacle. So will now make 5.716 units if the fight ends within 2.5 rounds and that doesn't include the potential profit from the above parlay. If Sadollah wins by decision I'll make 0.054 units profit (including the stake in the parlay). If Ludwig wins by decision I'll lose 4.363 units, and if the fight ends after 2.5 rounds then I'll make 28.816 units which would be best case scenario!Comment -
Damnit, why did I have to see this after just finding an earlier post from jesus in his thread saying he wanted to not only pick villefort, but also to do EXACTLY what i was planning on with one of my parlays with healey/villefort for a small play at ~-129. I now have someone whose opinion I find extremely valuable pulling me the same way that..well..jesus is..I calculated that based on my assigning probabilities to each fight to determining the compound probability that the parlay is at a 7% disadvantage (assuming I think Villefort wins 75% of the time and healey wins 66% of the time), but I'm gonna be getting a decent bonus to play the card that would compensate for that deficiency in value (bonus is contingent on a win obviously)..I really don't like to make these types of decisions...and the worst part is I honestly don't feel like this is a no-play scenario.
EDIT: almost immediately after this post i saw money start coming in heavy on Villefort and didn't want to overpay, made a small move on him at -275, I'm looking at it now its -340...healey better not f this up for meComment -
Sorry for the double post; but I just realized I wanted to suggest that you also add NOT Lytle by sub (it's surely better priced than not hardy by sub), because while Lytle has tapped many a man:
A)Hardy is tough as nails, hasn't been subbed in ~6 years,
B)has only been subbed by chokes, never a joint lock
C)Lytle hasn't submitted anyone via choke in ten fights (gotta go back to the Matt Brown fight)
D) It's been almost 7 years since Lytle was consistently choking guys out..from 99-04 he choked 12 guys outComment -
haha I think you're be okay, law of averages Jesus is gonna have similar picks sometimes!
Yeah for sure, I will be including that in a parlay tomorrow, was just waiting to see if the line improved because I'm thinking some will think Lytle will take Hardy down and submit him for some reason!Comment -
You guys are really underestimating the level of Lytle's grappling and submissions. He is very very good.Comment -
Lytle sucks and anyone skeptical about Hardy loosing needs to come back to the real world.Comment -
I think in his play where he says "Gustaff" he is taking Gustaffson and not Hammil. I'm not 100% sure though. It's definitely up for debate since Gustaff can easily be short for Matt Hammil.Comment -
That goes without saying - if he did go in with the strategy of taking Hardy down and was persistent with it I'd have no doubt that he could control Hardy on the ground. I just don't see that happening, he's going to oblige Zuffa and "the fans" and keep this standing even if it's at his own detriment.Comment -
did Villefort loseComment -
vaughny out of the 4 big favs which one has the best chance of LOSINGComment -
MMA Fight Pit: Genesis Plays:
1.546 units on Wheeler at -115 to win 1.344 units;
0.5 units on Alexander at +180 to win 0.9 units.Comment -
I'm not underestimating his abilities on the ground whatsoever. He's very wily, a 2nd degree blackbelt in BJJ, used to be extremely aggressive with his BJJ and as I said, was choking everyone and their brother out back 6-10 years ago...but after his fight where he KO'd Bradley really fast, he said (and I think he's one of the very few guys that won't say things as a part of their gamesmanship, and the results since then have shown that) that he was going to drop his 'technical approach' or whatever, and since then, he's had 8 fights, and won 2 by submission, one of which was against a guy he'd already choked out once in Matt Brown, so why WOULDN'T he do what worked the first time? We've all seen how tough of a guy Hardy is, he's never tapped to anything but a choke (and that was at the very beginning of his career), and Lytle's two subs in those past 8 fights were an armbar and a kneebar.
I'd say it was a little worse than 'dodgy'.Comment
