Vaughany's MMA Picks...

FlashinLeather · 03-09-11, 03:20 PM

how much is a unit vaughany

Vaughany · 03-09-11, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by FlashinLeather

how much is a unit vaughany

£10

Vaughany · 03-09-11, 06:11 PM

UFC 128 Plays:

3 units on Miller/Shalorus to go the distance at +110 to win 3.3 units (also have a free bet worth 5 units on the fight going distance but wont include this on my record on here);

1 unit on Schaub by decision at +400 to win 4 units;

0.086 units on Wineland by decision at +800 to win 0.688 units.

illmatick · 03-09-11, 06:41 PM

nice!

damn, i really want a piece of that +400, is that paddy's line? almost an identical price to "schaub by decision" against Gonzaga

doubt we see 5dimes put up anything better than +300.

Vaughany · 03-09-11, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

nice!

damn, i really want a piece of that +400, is that paddy's line? almost an identical price to "schaub by decision" against Gonzaga

doubt we see 5dimes put up anything better than +300.

Yeah, paddy's. I expect +250 to +310 range on 5dimes/Sportbet. I'll add some on Schaub KO of the Night as well at +550 or better.

thesox0311 · 03-10-11, 09:13 PM

Loving the Schaub line...only thing that scares me is that Mir/Cro Cop ending.

MMAdisciple · 03-10-11, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by thesox0311

only thing that scares me is that Mir/Cro Cop ending.

Schaub: "No hugs, no high-fives". I doubt CC makes it through fifteen minutes of Schaub's right. CC had it correct when he said no more young lions but I think after the garbage Mir fight Dana told CC "Schaub or gtfo" in so many words. More lights out for CC imo. CC at this point is the HW Liddell; expired chin. Schaub said it himself, he aint bullshittin out there, and look at Mir... he bullshitted and still got the KO!

RaiderNation MMA · 03-10-11, 10:47 PM

go cro cop!

Kaladarus · 03-10-11, 11:06 PM

I still think CC has a good chin. He has taken a lot of punishment and survived. JDS stopped him, but that was because of an eye injury not because of a KO. I don't think Schaub's power is even comparable to Mir's, JDS or Pat Barry at this point. He may be more skilled than most of CC's opponents, but CC can easily survive and +400 is an amazing price.

Vaughany · 03-14-11, 06:29 AM

Originally posted by MMAdisciple

Schaub: "No hugs, no high-fives". I doubt CC makes it through fifteen minutes of Schaub's right. CC had it correct when he said no more young lions but I think after the garbage Mir fight Dana told CC "Schaub or gtfo" in so many words. More lights out for CC imo. CC at this point is the HW Liddell; expired chin. Schaub said it himself, he aint bullshittin out there, and look at Mir... he bullshitted and still got the KO!

Originally posted by Kaladarus

I still think CC has a good chin. He has taken a lot of punishment and survived. JDS stopped him, but that was because of an eye injury not because of a KO. I don't think Schaub's power is even comparable to Mir's, JDS or Pat Barry at this point. He may be more skilled than most of CC's opponents, but CC can easily survive and +400 is an amazing price.

Yeah, I think Schaub might be even more tentative and composed then he was in the Gonzaga fight and try and use his jab and be elusive as possible. He's also admitted in an interview that he suffers big time with nerves and anxiety which is only gonna be compounded when your a big favourite against a guy with Cro Cop's mystique! I'll be adding Schaub KO of the Night tho as well.

thesox0311 · 03-14-11, 10:18 AM

I could def. see Schaub KO of then night, might throw some on that as well.

Vaughany · 03-14-11, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by thesox0311

I could def. see Schaub KO of then night, might throw some on that as well.

Yeah only competition for this could be Shogun or Wineland IMO. Bones could finish Shogun with strikes/elbows but it's highly unlikely going to be a KO as such. I guess Marquadt could potential finish Miller but Miller is very resilient and I think will be able to avoid gettin KO'd. Miller/Shalorus should end in decision or Miller sub. Cane could KO Marshall and Barboza/Njokuani could of course end in a KO but as Schaub is on main card and against a big name in Cro-Cop I like him to be favoured if he does finish CC with strikes.

thesox0311 · 03-14-11, 04:16 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah only competition for this could be Shogun or Wineland IMO. Bones could finish Shogun with strikes/elbows but it's highly unlikely going to be a KO as such. I guess Marquadt could potential finish Miller but Miller is very resilient and I think will be able to avoid gettin KO'd. Miller/Shalorus should end in decision or Miller sub. Cane could KO Marshall and Barboza/Njokuani could of course end in a KO but as Schaub is on main card and against a big name in Cro-Cop I like him to be favoured if he does finish CC with strikes.

I agree 100% with that. Only thing that scares me is if Shogun knocks out Jones...title fight KO is a lock for KO of the night.

Vaughany · 03-14-11, 05:37 PM

Additional UFC 128 Plays:

9.091 units on Marquardt/Miller to go the distance at +110 to win 10 units;

9.8 units on Marquardt/Miller to not go the distance at +160 to win 15.68 units;

6.218 units on Faber not inside the distance at +105 to win 6.529 units.

Will be hedging this with Faber by Submission or Faber Submission of the Night.

urge2kill · 03-14-11, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Additional UFC 128 Plays:

9.091 units on Marquardt/Miller to go the distance at +110 to win 10 units

Drool.

Vaughany · 03-16-11, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Additional UFC 128 Plays:

9.091 units on Marquardt/Miller to go the distance at +110 to win 10 units;

9.8 units on Marquardt/Miller to not go the distance at +160 to win 15.68 units;

Adding:

4 units on Marquardt by decision at +162.5 to win 6.5 units.

rocky mattioli · 03-16-11, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah only competition for this could be Shogun or Wineland IMO. Bones could finish Shogun with strikes/elbows but it's highly unlikely going to be a KO as such. I guess Marquadt could potential finish Miller but Miller is very resilient and I think will be able to avoid gettin KO'd. Miller/Shalorus should end in decision or Miller sub. Cane could KO Marshall and Barboza/Njokuani could of course end in a KO but as Schaub is on main card and against a big name in Cro-Cop I like him to be favoured if he does finish CC with strikes.

makes sense,v...seems like the one that would worry me would be njok catching barboza....if barboza gets it done it would seem like it might be an incremental beatdown featuring those monster kicks....

good stuff...

Vaughany · 03-16-11, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by rocky mattioli

makes sense,v...seems like the one that would worry me would be njok catching barboza....if barboza gets it done it would seem like it might be an incremental beatdown featuring those monster kicks....

good stuff...

I'd be very shocked if Njokuani takes out Barboza. From what I've seen Barboza has decent enough defence and from what he's said in interviews he may even look to take this to the mat.

rocky mattioli · 03-16-11, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I'd be very shocked if Njokuani takes out Barboza. From what I've seen Barboza has decent enough defence and from what he's said in interviews he may even look to take this too the mat.

i hadn`t read that...thanks for the info....i am a barboza admirer...looking at the barboza itd prop.....

some of those kicks should be measured on the richter scale...

Vaughany · 03-16-11, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by rocky mattioli

i hadn`t read that...thanks for the info....i am a barboza admirer...looking at the barboza itd prop.....

some of those kicks should be measured on the richter scale...

Yeah, his direct quote was... "Anything can happen in a fight...my ground game is pretty solid. I know that quite a few people wonder about my ground game. All I can say is watch . . . it should be very interesting as to how I win this fight.”

However, he also goes on to say... "I fight because I really love it. I love to knock people out.” So maybe he will stand and strike with Njokuani. But he did say after the Lullo fight that he wants to be a great all-rounder like GSP and he also did takedown Lullo in their fight so it's not like he's absolutely focused on keeping the fight standing, even against a guy like Lullo whose only potential threat was on the ground (and of course he wont have this problem with Njokuani on the ground). With this in mind, I've made a small play on Barboza by submission at +1000 which I feel is great value.

omalley21 · 03-16-11, 06:52 PM

I got barboza by sub at +1200 at 5dimes then it jumped to 800 so I basically got +1000 too. Great call, thanks.

Vaughany · 03-17-11, 06:37 AM

Originally posted by omalley21

I got barboza by sub at +1200 at 5dimes then it jumped to 800 so I basically got +1000 too. Great call, thanks.

Yeah I added more to my +1000 on that +1200 line on 5dimes/Sportbet.

I expected it to come out at +650 to +800 range so the +1200 was too good to pass up on. Obviously a TKO/KO is most likely outcome and decision might be more likely as well, but there is always the chance that Barboza knocks down Njokuani and follows up with a rear-naked or something, or even the chance he takes Njokuani down and chokes him out. Even small chance Njokuani taps to strikes or technical submission due to leg strikes.

sirchadwick1 · 03-17-11, 08:16 AM

Love the Barboza by sub at +1200 prop! It's down to +350 now. I was lucky to get on it yesterday. Also on him ITD.
I already have a play on Marquardt, but looking at that decision prop also as I see Dan being tough to finish.

Vaughany · 03-17-11, 08:47 AM

Originally posted by sirchadwick1

Love the Barboza by sub at +1200 prop! It's down to +350 now. I was lucky to get on it yesterday. Also on him ITD.
I already have a play on Marquardt, but looking at that decision prop also as I see Dan being tough to finish.

ha +1200 to +350 is some pretty crazy movement! Yeah I like Marquardt by decision most but I wouldnt rule out a finish. Miller hasn't fought anybody with Marquardt's striking power (Maia, Bisping, Salter, Sonnen) and he's got considerable size and strength advantage IMO which negate any perceived grappling advantage that Miller may have.

Vaughany · 03-17-11, 09:05 AM

Additional UFC 128 Plays:

0.186 units on Barboza by submission at +1200 to win 2.234 units;

0.086 units on Barboza by submission at +1000 to win 0.86 units;

0.2 units on Benavidez by decision at +300 to win 0.6 units;

0.064 units on Pyle by TKO/KO at +1400 to win 0.896 units.

xelance · 03-17-11, 12:46 PM

hey vaughn, do you like Jones/ Shogun for fight of the night?

Vaughany · 03-17-11, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by xelance

hey vaughn, do you like Jones/ Shogun for fight of the night?

Yeah, I really like Jones/Shogun or Faber/Wineland to get FOTN and plan on making a play on both once all the odds are out.

Vaughany · 03-17-11, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Additional UFC 128 Plays:

9.091 units on Marquardt/Miller to go the distance at +110 to win 10 units;

9.8 units on Marquardt/Miller to not go the distance at +160 to win 15.68 units;

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

4 units on Marquardt by decision at +162.5 to win 6.5 units.

Have added more to each of these plays:

10 units on Marquardt/Miller to go the distance at Evens to win 10 units;

15 units on Marquardt/Miller to not go the distance at +165 to win 24.75 units;

6 units on Marquardt by decision at +162.5 to win by decision at +162.5 to win 9.75 units.

So I'm good (guaranteed 13 to 14 units profit) as long as D.Miller doesn't win by decision.

thesox0311 · 03-17-11, 02:31 PM

def. jumping on shogun/jones FOTN...heard you today btw, good stuff man!

NunyaBidness · 03-17-11, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Have added more to each of these plays:

10 units on Marquardt/Miller to go the distance at Evens to win 10 units;

15 units on Marquardt/Miller to not go the distance at +165 to win 24.75 units;

6 units on Marquardt by decision at +162.5 to win by decision at +162.5 to win 9.75 units.

So I'm good (guaranteed 13 to 14 units profit) as long as D.Miller doesn't win by decision.

Yah, but if he does win, it'll be by decision.

pubster77 · 03-17-11, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Additional UFC 128 Plays:

9.091 units on Marquardt/Miller to go the distance at +110 to win 10 units;

9.8 units on Marquardt/Miller to not go the distance at +160 to win 15.68 units;

6.218 units on Faber not inside the distance at +105 to win 6.529 units.

Will be hedging this with Faber by Submission or Faber Submission of the Night.

How can it be +110 to go the distance and +160 to not go the distance? Did the line change that much?

Vaughany · 03-17-11, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by pubster77

How can it be +110 to go the distance and +160 to not go the distance? Did the line change that much?

Two different books.

Vaughany · 03-18-11, 09:29 AM

Adding:

Parlay (double): 1 unit on Barboza & Pyle/Almeida to go the distance to win 1.222 units;

0.062 units on Marquardt KO of the Night at +2100 to win 1.302 units;

0.043 units on Wineland KO of the Night at +3300 to win 1.419 units.

jliggett12 · 03-18-11, 10:12 AM

my picks tonight are like this for the main card.

jon jones
eddie wineland
jim miller
nate marquardt
and leaning towards cro cop because i dont think schaub has enough knockout power and i see it ending like the pat berry fight. schaub gassing out finally and cro cop sneaking the vicotry

pubster77 · 03-18-11, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Two different books.

Which books?

If you saw those odds you shoulda max bet those as its impossible to lose.