Eccocide's MMA Picks

[snake11eyes]

Mir by 3 Round Decision (+400) 0.5 units to win 2 units

Mcdonald / Not Grove by TKO / Torres-Johnson Starts Round 2 3-fight parlay (-118) 2.95 units to win 2.5 units

Good job last night buddy. It seems everybody had a pretty good night. Thanks, I tailed you on these two. I also have this nice parlay left open. You think I should hedge a little or just let it ride. I'm really liking these last two picks.

71398416-2 5/28/11 1:54pm $20.00 $1,272.03
Pending 6 Team Parlay
Pending 6/18/11 11:30pm Strikeforce Fighting 1002 Alistair Overeem -311* vs Fabricio Werdum
Pending 6/18/11 11:00pm Strikeforce Fighting 1102 Josh Barnett -293* vs Brett Rogers
Win 5/28/11 11:00pmProps Fighting 1203 Hamill/Jackson goes 3 round distance -145* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
Win 5/28/11 10:30pm Props Fighting 1311 Mir wins by 3 round decision +347* vs Not Mir by 3 round decision Win 5/28/11 10:00pm Props Fighting 1504 Fight won't go 3 round distance -325* vs Struve/Browne goes 3 round distance
Win 5/28/11 9:25pm Props Fighting 1607 Story wins by 3 round decision +269* vs Not Story by 3 round decision

[Eccocide]

tnx Snake. Glad I could help.

That is a sick parlay you have there lol. I like both picks in all honesty. The only thing that worries me about the Barnett fight is that it will be a year since his last fight, so there may be some rust there. However, Rogers looked DREADFUL against Villareal in his last fight and he clearly has a narow path to victory. Since you only put 20 down to win, I'd let it ride. If youre really feeling unsure, I'd wait till they release props and see what Rogers by KO and Werdum by Sub are paying. I cant see either guy winning by another means.

[Eccocide]

TUF 13 Finale:

Maldonado (+165) 1.5 units to win 2.47 units
Herman (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Cope/Oneil Over 2.5 Rounds (-115) 1.725 units to win 1.5 units
Jorgensen/Duran 2-fight parlay (-130) 3 units to win 2.31 units
Stephens/Pettis-Guida goes the distance 2-fight parlay (-120) 3 units to win 2.5 units
Oneil/Not Pettis by TKO 2-fight parlay (-124) 1.86 units to win 1.5 units

That should be it unless 5dimes adds some more props. GL tonight everyone.

[snake11eyes]

Where did you get cope/oneill over. I dont see any props except for the main event.

[Ladle]

Where did you get cope/oneill over. I dont see any props except for the main event.

5dimes. I like that bet too.

Good luck, Eccocide.

[Eccocide]

Where did you get cope/oneill over. I dont see any props except for the main event.

5dimes. I like that bet too.

Good luck, Eccocide.

Ya they have O/U on the main card fights at 5dimes. Cope/Oneil sitting at -150 now for the over.

GL tonight as well Ladle!

[rocky mattioli]

sportsbook had finishes rd 2 in cope/o`neil at -115.....but i`m worried that o`neil will catch cope...o`neil finishes most of his fights...

[Eccocide]

TUF 13 Finale Results: +4.45 units


Thats 3 good events in a row for me. Hopefully the streak continues next weekend.

[Vaughany]

Gd job Ecco, unlucky with Maldonado as well

[Eccocide]

Gd job Ecco, unlucky with Maldonado as well

Tnx V. I seem to have regained my groove lol.

I've been avoiding adding plays way before events because I like to get as much info as possible but I really like these plays, espcially at the prices.

UFC 133:

Rashad Evans (-120) 3.6 units to win 3 units

UFC on Versus 5:

Jim Miller (-152) 4.56 units to win 3 units

[bjpenn85]

I do not like jim miller against ben henderson at all. He was controlled and muscled by bocek. Bocek was muscled by henderon. Its a 50 50 fight, where henderson have the strength advantage, the ability that may prove to be the difference. Where do you see the fight take place, and why do jim miller win?

[bjpenn85]

I think rashad evans its very good bet.

[Vaughany]

I think rashad evans its very good bet.

Yeah, Im planning goin big on Rashad hedged with fight goes distance or Davis by decision.

[Eccocide]

I do not like jim miller against ben henderson at all. He was controlled and muscled by bocek. Bocek was muscled by henderon. Its a 50 50 fight, where henderson have the strength advantage, the ability that may prove to be the difference. Where do you see the fight take place, and why do jim miller win?

I dont have a lot of time right now but Im not big on MMA math as I believe every matchup is different. Miller was very unimpressive against Bocek, but then went on to beat a bigger and stronger Tibau in his next fight. His standup looked on-point against Shalorous and I dont see many facets when Henderson has the advantage.

[Eccocide]

Adding:

UFC 131:


Maia (+105) 2 units to win 2.1 units

[bjpenn85]

well. I am not a fan either on mma math. The most important in mma is style, please, i am not a noob. But the strength, is def were the mma math actually work. A lot of people did talk about how good roy nelson was in the clinch. I said, well, mirco cro cop, was strong against shaub in the clinch. Mir crushed cro cop, covito ergo sum, mir has to be very strong, and therefor is more likely to control nelson. what happened....weeeeeel i dont need to tell you that.

Gleison tibau, doesnt use his strength very well and isnt in my opinion a top fighter. But he actually startet off quite well. If i am not wrong i had him winning the first round, after taking jim down, and controlling and taking the centre of the cage. He faded after a while, and that was when jim miller took over. exactly when, i cant recall. Ben henderson is a top fighter, he belongs up there with the best and i expect him to get takedowns or controlling the fight and be the strongest in the clinch, very slightly.

You also point to that you cant see that many facets henderson has over miller, so cant i. But i believe both fighters will stay away from the ground, as both fighters has good reasons to avoid it. Jim miller dont wanne get wraaasseld, and henderson wont be playing into the very tricky submissions of miller. So, if the fight ends up standing, i pick henderson to clinch and make it ugly. I rather favor a tough match against pettis, and a strong victory over henderson, than a victory against inexperienced shamalrous and a potential rising star in oliveira. And am out

[Eccocide]

I wouldnt compare HWs to any other weight class. There are no similarities. Mir is a legit sized HW..Nelson clearly is not. I dunno how anyone would question who had the strength advantage in that one.

As well Miller is a big LW and he's a solid wrestler. I havent been overly impressed with Hendersons wrestling over the last few fights. He was taken down in every round by Bocek and I dont believe he completed any takedowns of his own. Pettis was able to defend the TD's as the fight progressed and Varner was also able to take him down. IMO Miller is the better wrestler and if there is a guy to get TDs it will be Miller. I also think Pettis getting taken down over and over by Guida speaks a little to Bendo's ability to be able to take Miller down.

As well Miller's pace is relentless. Henderson hasnt fought anyone who can keep a pace like him. Henderson isnt going to be able to circle and throw kicks from a distance. Can Henderson hold him against the cage for 3 rounds? Maybe, but he's usually not the one to initiate the cagework.

I guess we will find out in a couple of months. GL with the Bendo bet.

[Eccocide]

Adding:

UFC 131:

Carwin in Round 1 (+350) 1 unit to win 3.5 units
Carwin in Round 2 (640) 1 unit to win 6.4 units

[Eccocide]

UFC 131:

Florian Inside the Distance (+185) 1.5 units to win 2.775 units

[rocky mattioli]

UFC 131:

Florian Inside the Distance (+185) 1.5 units to win 2.775 units

the more i look, the more i like maia.....and i love those props in your last 2 panels....


hope you keep the streak going...well done...

[Vaughany]

ufc 131:

florian inside the distance (+185) 1.5 units to win 2.775 units

"who wants to see fights finished at 145???!!"

[Straight Cash]

UFC 131:

Florian Inside the Distance (+185) 1.5 units to win 2.775 units

I like this bet alot. Florian by GNP with elbows.

[jacktheknife]

Yeah, Im planning goin big on Rashad hedged with fight goes distance or Davis by decision.

Between the height and reach disadvantages AND the lesser wrestling acumen AND losing his camp AND the questionable cardio AND the ring rust? That's quite a scenario to be leaning big money on the nebulous value of experience.

[rocky mattioli]

Between the height and reach disadvantages AND the lesser wrestling acumen AND losing his camp AND the questionable cardio AND the ring rust? That's quite a scenario to be leaning big money on the nebulous value of experience.

i`m swimming against the tide on this one also,jtk.......hoping for a decent sized dog play by post time...

[Educ8d Degener8]

"who wants to see fights finished at 145???!!"

LOL

[Vaughany]

Between the height and reach disadvantages AND the lesser wrestling acumen AND losing his camp AND the questionable cardio AND the ring rust? That's quite a scenario to be leaning big money on the nebulous value of experience.

So do you think Davis is going to TKO/KO or submit Evans? Just because a fighter is taller and has longer reach does not mean that he automatically has an advantage! Many also said Struve would beat Browne because he was taller and had reach "advantage"! It's only an advantage if you know how to use it. Davis' stand-up may have improved since his earlier fights but it's still no way near Rashad's level and he doesn't use his jab enough to take full advantage of his reach. If u'd of said size advantage then I'd agree as Rashad isn't the biggest LHW and Davis has huge upside. But then Evans has been able to deal with Forrest Griffin and Thiago Silva who are also large HWs.

Rashad's wrestling credentials might not be as impressive as Davis' but MMA wrestling is different to Amateur wrestling. Rashad's experience and speed will make it a lot harder for Davis to get a takedown than it was against likes of Stann, Gustaffson, Wallace, and Nog - none of whom have Evans' footwork, speed or wrestling ability. If Davis does take him down he's going to be concentrating more on keeping Evans there than he is on working a submission.

You're quite right that ring-rust and upheaval from camp could be problems, but I doubt they are going to be big enough to make Evans get finished by Davis.

[jacktheknife]

So do you think Davis is going to TKO/KO or submit Evans? Just because a fighter is taller and has longer reach does not mean that he automatically has an advantage!

Alright, alright, I know that, man. I'm saying it's a advantage, not the advantage. And it's shown to be a grappling advantage as well as a striking one. And none of my drift was against the hedge, but on backing Rashad for a big money play with all things considered.

[Vaughany]

Alright, alright, I know that, man. I'm saying it's a advantage, not the advantage. And it's shown to be a grappling advantage as well as a striking one. And none of my drift was against the hedge, but on backing Rashad for a big money play with all things considered.

Yeah ur right, Davis' length will help on the ground as well, a lot more than it will on the feet. And I agree I definitely wouldn't play Rashad straight up.

[sirchadwick1]

The more I read about the Rashad and Phil fight, the more likely I am to just stay away from it. Solid arguments on each side and I can't quite get a good feel of how it will play out.

[kmdubya]

The more I read about the Rashad and Phil fight, the more likely I am to just stay away from it. Solid arguments on each side and I can't quite get a good feel of how it will play out.

I really like Rashad in this fight. Davis has great wrestling, but watching his fight with Little Nog, I though he was pretty average against someone with grappling experience. I see Rashad keeping in standing and taking it to Davis.

[rocky mattioli]

i sense a tendency to put too much emphasis on a guy`s last fight....lil nog is nobody`s walkover...
rashad out-wrestled silva(which he won`t do here)....and he was losing to griffin until griffin slipped in the last round and got g&p`ed......very fortunate...and a draw with ortiz and a split with bisping don`t tend to dissuade me one bit...

i think this is a very winable fight for davis...i hope the odds go up....

i just hope it doesn`t turn into a track meet...

[Eccocide]

Good discussion here, wish I had time to chime in lol. A couple more value plays.

UFC 131:

Edwards by Decision (+314) 1 unit to win 3.14 units
Weidman by Decision (+201) 1.25 units to win 2.5125 units

[Eccocide]

the more i look, the more i like maia.....and i love those props in your last 2 panels....


hope you keep the streak going...well done...

tnx rocky, GL this weekend.

"who wants to see fights finished at 145???!!"

I do!!

I like this bet alot. Florian by GNP with elbows.

Lets hope so. Its kind of a risky bet because Florian pretty much knows he just has to win to get a title shot and with this being his first fight at 145 he may play cautious. I just couldnt pass it up at these odds.

So do you think Davis is going to TKO/KO or submit Evans? Just because a fighter is taller and has longer reach does not mean that he automatically has an advantage! Many also said Struve would beat Browne because he was taller and had reach "advantage"! It's only an advantage if you know how to use it. Davis' stand-up may have improved since his earlier fights but it's still no way near Rashad's level and he doesn't use his jab enough to take full advantage of his reach. If u'd of said size advantage then I'd agree as Rashad isn't the biggest LHW and Davis has huge upside. But then Evans has been able to deal with Forrest Griffin and Thiago Silva who are also large HWs.

Rashad's wrestling credentials might not be as impressive as Davis' but MMA wrestling is different to Amateur wrestling. Rashad's experience and speed will make it a lot harder for Davis to get a takedown than it was against likes of Stann, Gustaffson, Wallace, and Nog - none of whom have Evans' footwork, speed or wrestling ability. If Davis does take him down he's going to be concentrating more on keeping Evans there than he is on working a submission.

You're quite right that ring-rust and upheaval from camp could be problems, but I doubt they are going to be big enough to make Evans get finished by Davis.

. I agree with pretty much everything you've said. Evans has adapted his wrestling much better to MMA in comparison to Phil Davis. I've watched a lot of Phils tape and there have been very few times that a TD has came easily for him. Rashads footwork and speed is going to keep Davis off balance and I see him really struggling to find the right opportunity to shoot and actually succeed.

[Eccocide]

Adding:

UFC 131:

Cerrone / Edwards-Stout Starts Round 3 2-fight parlay (-123) 3 units to win 2.44 units


UFC 131 Recap (So Far):

Maia (+105) 2 units to win 2.1 units
Carwin in Round 1 (+350) 1 unit to win 3.5 units
Carwin in Round 2 (640) 1 unit to win 6.4 units
Florian Inside the Distance (+185) 1.5 units to win 2.775 units
Edwards by Decision (+314) 1 unit to win 3.14 units
Weidman by Decision (+201) 1.25 units to win 2.5125 units
Cerrone / Edwards-Stout Starts Round 3 2-fight parlay (-123) 3 units to win 2.44 units

I'm honestly not in love with my card at all so far lol. I got sucked in with a lot of props which I have been trying to avoid as of late (and it has been working). But I love me some value and had to bite lol. FYI, a lot of money has come in on Carwin in Round 1 (down to +220) which has caused Carwin in Round 2 to skyrocket to +1200.....I should have seen this coming and waited to play it. Definitely regretting it now! I may have a couple more plays, but not loving anything at the moment.

[bogbat]

I'm on Mia and Carwin too but just about the rest of the forum are on the other side. This card is a very hard card to predict in my opinion, if I wasn't such an action junkie for MMA I'd avoid wagering on it all together.