Eccocide's MMA Picks

**xelance** · 02-06-11, 03:03 PM

VERY surprised Shogun came out as a +155 dog...not many champions come out as underdogs. What book did you use to get this line?

**Eccocide** · 02-06-11, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by snake11eyes

Bad move ecco lol. Jones is too big, too strong, too athletic. Only thing that concerns me is how will Jones react to fighting again in 6 weeks.

I guess we will see in just 6 weeks

. This will be Shogun/Overeem 3, same outcome as the first 2

.

**Eccocide** · 02-06-11, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by xelance

VERY surprised Shogun came out as a +155 dog...not many champions come out as underdogs. What book did you use to get this line?

bookmaker has him at +155 right now.

**xelance** · 02-06-11, 03:10 PM

wow...im definitely taking Shogun. thanks for the headsup

**Eccocide** · 02-07-11, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

UFC 128:

Shogun (+155) 2 units to win 3.1 units

I bought back 2 units on Jones at -170 and replayed Shogun at +185 for 2 units. So it essentially works out as follows:

Shogun (+155) 2 units to win 3.1 units
Jones (-170) 3.4 units to win 2 units
Shogun (+185) 2 units to win 3.7 units

So it basically works out to:

Shogun (+170) 2 units to win 3.4 units

And I added another unit at +185.

Shogun (+185) 1 units to win 1.85 units

So in Summary lol:

UFC 128:

Shogun (+170) 2 units to win 3.4 units
Shogun (+185) 1 units to win 1.85 units

**Eccocide** · 02-07-11, 05:19 PM

UFC on Versus 3:

CB Dolloway (+185) 1.5 units to win 2.775 units

**snake11eyes** · 02-07-11, 06:36 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

UFC on Versus 3:

CB Dolloway (+185) 1.5 units to win 2.775 units

Good to see you on Dollaway as well. I grabbed 185 when it first came out. I thought it would have dropped a little by now. I also have him in a few parlays.

**lasker** · 02-07-11, 06:41 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

UFC on Versus 3: CB Dolloway (+185) 1.5 units to win 2.775 units

love it

I have him in some parlays as well.

**Eccocide** · 02-07-11, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by snake11eyes

Good to see you on Dollaway as well. I grabbed 185 when it first came out. I thought it would have dropped a little by now. I also have him in a few parlays.

Originally posted by lasker

love it

I have him in some parlays as well.

Tnx boys.

**Vaughany** · 02-08-11, 05:35 AM

Yeah Dolloway bet makes sense when u consider that people saw value in Simpson at +145 when he was against Munoz. IMO Dolloway is a younger and slightly better version of Simpson. Im probly gonna take Dolloway by decision prop tho as Im not sure he can finish Munoz.

**Eccocide** · 02-10-11, 07:28 AM

Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Silva:

Fedor/Silva Over 1.5 Rounds (-113) 2.26 units to win 2 units

**JohnGalt2341** · 02-10-11, 07:35 PM

Fred Simmons would DESTROY Jon Jones.

**Eccocide** · 02-11-11, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Silva:

Fedor/Silva Over 1.5 Rounds (-113) 2.26 units to win 2 units

Adding:

Sefo (+144) 1.25 units to win 1.8 units
Arlovski (+110) 1.5 units to win 1.65 units

**Eccocide** · 02-11-11, 06:34 PM

Adding:

Del Rosario/Johnson Under 1.5 Rounds (-175) 2.625 units to win 1.5 units

**xelance** · 02-11-11, 08:05 PM

you are on Sefo?

**Eccocide** · 02-11-11, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by xelance

you are on Sefo?

Ya its a small play and its more of a fade of Overeem. He's looked dreadful over the last couple of years. He's fought very limited competiton, some guys with losing records and has only won 4 of his last 10. He has no notable wins over that time period and has some very bad losses. He has a tendency to want to stand and seems to rarely follow any sort of gameplan. He's had one sub with since 2003 and has really neglected his ground game. I just don't think he should be a -160 favourite against many ppl at this stage of his career and against a guy who may be one dimensional but is very good at that dimension. Overeem could potentially be smart and get this to the ground and work for the sub but I just don't see that happening and I'll take my chances with the dog in this case. As well, Sefo's been at Xtreme Couture for a little while now so I figure he will be somewhat prepared to stuff the TD and work to keep it standing. Small play though.

**Eccocide** · 02-11-11, 08:34 PM

Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Silva Recap:

Fedor/Silva Over 1.5 Rounds (-113) 2.26 units to win 2 units
Arlovski (+110) 1.5 units to win 1.65 units
Del Rosario/Johnson Under 1.5 Rounds (-175) 2.625 units to win 1.5 units
Sefo (+144) 1.25 units to win 1.8 units

That will prolly be all. I lean Cholish but I was only going to play him at -150 or better. I may have one more play, depending on the line move, but that is it for now.

**xelance** · 02-11-11, 08:36 PM

I got him at -135 for 4 units...I think I will just let it play out and hope for the best....no real arb value here

**illmatick** · 02-11-11, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Silva Recap:

Fedor/Silva Over 1.5 Rounds (-113) 2.26 units to win 2 units
Arlovski (+110) 1.5 units to win 1.65 units
Del Rosario/Johnson Under 1.5 Rounds (-175) 2.625 units to win 1.5 units
Sefo (+144) 1.25 units to win 1.8 units

That will prolly be all. I lean Cholish but I was only going to play him at -150 or better. I may have one more play, depending on the line move, but that is it for now.

looks solid

small plays on Arlovski and Rosario for me, under is also tempting in the Rosario fight...I think Johnson either catches him early or he gasses late in the first.

GL

**Eccocide** · 02-12-11, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by illmatick

looks solid

small plays on Arlovski and Rosario for me, under is also tempting in the Rosario fight...I think Johnson either catches him early or he gasses late in the first.

GL

Tnx Ill, GL to you tonight. I totally agree with that assessment. I figured the line would be closer to -200 for U 1.5 so I had to play it.

**The HOFF** · 02-12-11, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by Eccocide

Adding:

Del Rosario/Johnson Under 1.5 Rounds (-175) 2.625 units to win 1.5 units

Johnson has no cardio. Hopefully he gases and Del Rosario makes quick work of him.

**Shagdogy** · 02-12-11, 12:38 PM

Good job on 126 ecco... just checking out your strikeforce plays and I'm right with you on 'em. I've been giving Sefo a hard look myself as a dog. Just don't trust Overeem at -160 for the reasons you said. Arlovski scares me a bit so I can't pull the trigger on that one yet. Still deciding.... gotta get to it today.

**Eccocide** · 02-12-11, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Good job on 126 ecco... just checking out your strikeforce plays and I'm right with you on 'em. I've been giving Sefo a hard look myself as a dog. Just don't trust Overeem at -160 for the reasons you said. Arlovski scares me a bit so I can't pull the trigger on that one yet. Still deciding.... gotta get to it today.

Tnx Shag. Yeah I dont blame anyone for being hesitant to back Arlovski. I just think this is a good spot for him and his head seems to be in the right place. Kharitonov has looked very pedestrian over the past couple of years and his movement has really suffered due to his back injuries. I think speed and angles will be the difference in this matchup.

**bogbat** · 02-12-11, 01:42 PM

I like the Sefo play. Too bad you cant get sefo by submission anywhere. Mini Overeem tapping to punches wouldn't be surprising.

**Vaughany** · 02-12-11, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by bogbat

I like the Sefo play. Too bad you cant get sefo by submission anywhere. Mini Overeem tapping to punches wouldn't be surprising.

Can get tht prop on bookmaker I think.

**urge2kill** · 02-12-11, 02:09 PM

+550 for Sefo by sub. No thanks.

**Eccocide** · 02-12-11, 04:02 PM

I waited for this play to see if it would get to -110 or better and it has hit -110 so Im going to play it. I may regret it as either guy can finish the fight with one punch, but I like this one to get out of the first.

Adding:

Arlovski/Kharitonov Starts Round 2 (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units

Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Silva Recap:

Fedor/Silva Over 1.5 Rounds (-113) 2.26 units to win 2 units
Arlovski (+110) 1.5 units to win 1.65 units
Del Rosario/Johnson Under 1.5 Rounds (-175) 2.625 units to win 1.5 units
Sefo (+144) 1.25 units to win 1.8 units
Arlovski/Kharitonov Starts Round 2 (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units

Thats it for tonight. GL tonight everyone!

**terpkeg** · 02-12-11, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

I waited for this play to see if it would get to -110 or better and it has hit -110 so Im going to play it. I may regret it as either guy can finish the fight with one punch, but I like this one to get out of the first.

Adding:

Arlovski/Kharitonov Starts Round 2 (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units

Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Silva Recap:

Fedor/Silva Over 1.5 Rounds (-113) 2.26 units to win 2 units
Arlovski (+110) 1.5 units to win 1.65 units
Del Rosario/Johnson Under 1.5 Rounds (-175) 2.625 units to win 1.5 units
Sefo (+144) 1.25 units to win 1.8 units
Arlovski/Kharitonov Starts Round 2 (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units

Thats it for tonight. GL tonight everyone!

Ive been eyeing that one as well. BOL

**Eccocide** · 02-12-11, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

Johnson has no cardio. Hopefully he gases and Del Rosario makes quick work of him.

GL with your big play on Rosario Hoff.

Originally posted by bogbat

I like the Sefo play. Too bad you cant get sefo by submission anywhere. Mini Overeem tapping to punches wouldn't be surprising.

I'm hoping this one goes nowhere near the ground, even if its GnP lol. Overeem used to have some decent leglocks in his arsenal!

Originally posted by terpkeg

Ive been eyeing that one as well. BOL

Yeah the odds are enticing. GL tonight Terp.

**Vaughany** · 02-12-11, 04:36 PM

GL tonight Ecco, Im likin the prop plays...I think Arlovski will start very cautiously against Kharitonov and could see alot of feeling out and circling in Rnd 1.

**Eccocide** · 02-13-11, 12:35 AM

Strikeforce Results: -0.9 units

Small loss on the night. Arlovski screws me again. The late add of Starts Round 2 put me in the negative for the night. Dana White is having a good laugh right now

.

**Eccocide** · 02-15-11, 06:03 PM

UFC 129:

Bocek (+145) 2 units to win 2.9 units

UFC 129:

Hominick (+330) 1 unit to win 3.3 units

**Jordan23** · 02-16-11, 01:13 AM

Originally posted by Eccocide

UFC 129: Hominick (+330) 1 unit to win 3.3 units

I like this pick personally.. I just can't pull the trigger on this one.

**Eccocide** · 02-16-11, 12:57 PM

Tachi Palace

camoes (-140) 2.8 units to win 2 units

**Eccocide** · 02-16-11, 10:38 PM

UFC 127:

Sotiropolous by Submission (+100) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units