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New here love all the talk on the best sport in the world small write up on last 5 bouts for the night good luck all!!
Dos Santos (-220) v Lewis(+180)...on paper this should be a slug em out stand up bout between two heavy hitters. Dos Santos has the cleaner boxing no question about it.. Lewis has the edge in terms of home run lights out power. The kicker here could be the X factor and Junior is a more well rounded MMA fighter an could use his bjj black belt if he can get Lewis on the floor where he clearly isn’t near as dangerous or skilled.. don’t blink in this one.
Millender (-125) v Zaleski(+105)..two strikers again Millender will have a speed advantage an a bit of a reach advantage however Zaleski is the more creative striker and more willing to think outside the box with his striking. The stats on these two are insanely close almost identical both are also on very nice win streaks this will be a very competitive high level fight.
Price (+160) v Means (-190)... both guys love to throw heat at their opponent usually finishing the opposition if either fighter wins.. Means is the veteran been in the UFC forever is on a bit of a skid tho not all his fault some bad judging.. Price lost twice in the promotion but both losses are two very tough hard hitting guys this fight will be fun to watch.
Rothwell(+105) v Ivanov(-110).. Rothwell is coming off a 36 month layoff which is alarming and both men share the same last loss to Junior Dos Santos both lost by decision as well. Ivanov made his octagon debut against junior as had a very unimpressive showing only landing 50 strikes in 5 rounds he also is notoriously low volume guy.
Dariush(-190) v Dober (+165)... Dober is a little bulldog who comes forward with some pretty clean striking and is on his best win streak in his time w the ufc winning 5 of his last 6. Dariush is a staple of the 155 pound division and has been a top 25 guy or higher forever has a great ground game an control on the mat an is a solid striker. Worry for Dariush is lately he has been a bit chinny He is 3-3 in his last 6 in the promotion.Comment -
Welcome to the forum Penny. Thanks for the write ups.Comment -
MMA Pros Pick
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No problem & thanks Hugo just tried to come out strong only 1 first impreshComment -
Just few days away. Go jds as long as lewis doesn't get lucky ko while gassed.Comment -
MMAMANIA write ups coming in. PART 1...Prelims...
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135 lbs.: Louis Smolka vs. Matt Schnell
Louis Smolka (15-5) — once on the verge of Flyweight title contention — washed out of UFC after four consecutive losses. “Da Last Samurai” picked up three wins on the regional circuit before successfully returning to the Octagon with an armbar finish of Sumudaerji in Nov. 2018.
Seven of his 13 stoppage wins have come by submission.
Matt Schnell (12-4) entered TUF 24 as the Legacy Flyweight champion and choked out Matthew Rizzo before tapping to eventual winner Tim Elliott. He suffered knockout losses to Rob Font and Hector Sandoval in his first two UFC appearances, but has since gotten back on track with decisions over Marco Antonio Beltran and Naoki Inoue.
“Danger” is one inch shorter than Smolka, but will have a four-inch reach advantage.
Schnell has been one of the more underwhelming TUF 24 alumni, giving up takedowns to most of his Octagon opponents, showing a poor chin, and barely squeaking past a skilled but extremely green Naoki Inoue in his most recent bout. For all of Smolka’s inconsistency, this looks like a winnable fight for him — Schnell doesn’t have the size or takedowns to physically dominate “Da Last Samurai,” nor particularly potent striking.
Against a chinny opponent without overwhelming wrestling, Smolka’s durability and submission prowess should carry the day. Expect him to either clip Schnell standing or drag him down in transition en route to a submission finish.
Prediction: Smolka via second-round submission
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170 lbs.: Alex Morono vs. Zak Ottow
Alex Morono (15-5) started his UFC career perfect (2-0), but has alternated losses and wins since a knockout defeat to Niko Price was overturned because of Price testing positive for marijuana. He earned “Fight of the Night” for his most recent effort, an entertaining decision over Song Kenan in Beijing.
Despite his free-swinging style, “The Great White” has earned more wins by submission (six) than knockout (four).
Zak Ottow (17-6) has likewise struggled to put two consecutive wins together in the Octagon, going 4-3 without a single win streak. His last time out, he took on knockout artist Dwight Grant and defied lopsided odds to win a narrow split decision.
He has submitted 10 opponents and knocked out another three.
Ottow is a strange case — three of his four UFC victories were by split decision and, save for brief spurts of violence against Mike Pyle and Sage Northcutt, he never seems to get out of first gear. Morono, by contrast, never stops coming, making up for his technical deficiencies with gusto and a solid chin. In addition, he’s got a surprisingly strong ground game to fall back on should Ottow actually make an effort to take it to the mat.
Ottow just doesn’t do enough to earn a decision against someone as aggressive as Morono and he lacks the finishing ability to take the judges out of the equation. Morono outworks him in a brawl to win a decision.
Prediction: Morono via unanimous decision
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18 + 14 = KTFO
155 lbs.: Alex White vs. Dan Moret
Alex White (12-5) went 2-2 as a Featherweight in the Octagon, including a win over the inimitable Artem Lobov, before making the move to 155 pounds in 2017. Unlike Martin — whom White faced in his divisional debut — he hasn’t found similar success, going 1-3 and suffering a submission loss to Jim Miller in his last bout.
His 10 stoppages are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
Dan Moret (13-4) did well for himself in organizations like RFA and LFA, losing only to future UFC competitors Luke Sanders, Bobby Moffett and Raoni Barcelos. He made his Octagon debut against Gilbert Burns last April, but succumbed to “Durinho’s” power early in the second round.
Five of his eight submission wins have come in the first round.
You can’t really fault Moret for getting nuked by Burns — that tends to happen to a lot of people lately. Still, he’s come up short in every attempt to step up so far, and though he’s clearly skilled on the mat, he just seems like he can’t take the next step.
Neither can White, admittedly, so this is an interesting match up in that sense. White’s the better striker, but his takedown defense consistently fails him, making this a toss-up against the grappling-focused Moret. It’s a coin flip, but considering Moret’s lack of size and leaky defense, I say White survives some early grappling trouble to take him out with punches.
Prediction: White via second-round technical knockout
PART 2 -
Welterweight: Tim Means vs. Niko Price
Best Win for Means? Alex Garcia For Price? Randy Brown
Current Streak: One win for Means, one loss for Price
X-Factor: Price’s incredible opportunism
How these two match up: This is the best bet for “Fight of the Night.”
Means is a straight up scrapper. The lanky “Dirty Bird” stalks opponents around the cage, manages distance well, and is exceptionally nasty with his counter cross and elbow strikes. In addition, Means helps his case by keeping a high output. There are certainly similarities between Means and Price, who is similarly aggressive, more powerful, and definitely unafraid of a slugfest. Price is perhaps best known for his nearly unique ability to find openings to finish, such as his back fist knockout from his back while in a foot lock position.
This is a close fight with clear reasons to pick either man. Means has a great deal of experience, both inside the Octagon and out, as well as a rangier build. However, Price is six years younger and certainly the more volatile finisher.
Ultimately though, consistency is the deciding factor for me. Means knows his style, where he wants to be, and how he wins fights. Price seems to let his opponent dictate the pace, counting on that opportunism to find his way to a win. That works often enough to make him very dangerous, but Means is a difficult man to stop.
Prediction:Means via decision
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Predictions! UFC ‘Wichita’ ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 1
Predictions! UFC ‘Wichita’ ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 2
Heavyweight: Blagoy Ivanov vs. Ben Rothwell
Best Win for Ivanov? Shawn Jordan For Rothwell? Alistair Overeem
Current Streak: One single loss to Junior dos Santos for each man
X-Factor: Rothwell’s varying state of fitness
How these two match up: A pair of big ole’ Heavyweights will meet in the Octagon, meaning we’re probably going to see a brutal knockout or miserable slog.
Ivanov has a weird game, a he does not fight like one would expect of a decorated Sambo specialist. Though his takedowns are a strength, they’re not particularly elite, an issue we saw when dos Santos stuffed his few attempts. In fact, he doesn’t seem to try to wrestle all that often, preferring to counter along the fence.
Rothwell is a strange man himself. Known for his deceptive speed, herky-jerky movement, and monstrous knockout power, Rothwell has a ton of tricks up his sleeve. Also worth mentioning is Rothwell’s underrated submission game, which was enough to submit Josh Barnett with a 10-finger guillotine choke.
My pick depends entirely on what type of shape Ben Rothwell shows up in. The man’s nickname is “Big,” and he’s been away from the cage for well over two years. If he shows up with a decent amount of muscle and no serious belly, I expect Rothwell’s athleticism and tricks to land the better shots. If his body bears resemblance to Roy Nelson’s infamous belly, Rothwell is probably going to gas three minutes into the fight and lose a terribly boring decision.
I wish this post aired after weigh-in day, which is when I will make my final decision. Until then, though ...
Prediction:Ben Rothwell via knockout
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Lightweight: Beneil Dariush vs. Drew Dober
Best Win for Dariush? Michael Johnson For Dober? Frank Camacho
Current Streak: One win for Dariush, three for Dober
X-Factor: Dariush’s conditioning
How these two match up: This should be fun.
Dariush fights with a level of aggression unmatched by most. On his feet, the Southpaw slugs forward with brutal power kicks and left hands. All those power strikes are dangerous, but they tend to distract from the fact that Dariush is one of the very best grapplers at 155 pounds.
Dober’s UFC career began with struggle, but he’s really turned it around, winning five of his last six bouts across the previous three years. He’s best known for his high-volume Muay Thai, but Dober is willing to wrestle when needed and is something of a generalist.
To be frank, Dober’s primary strategy in this match up should revolve around surviving the first round. In those opening five minutes, Dariush is legitimately one of the nastiest men on the roster: he heaves massive power shots and is always looking to strangle. Unless a perfect counter connects, Dober is unlikely to win the opening frame.
If he can survive it, though? Dober is a surprising big, strong Lightweight and throws strikes endlessly. Dariush, meanwhile, seems to fall victim to his own aggression, slowing down dramatically if the early finish does not emerge. If Dober can see the latter half of this fight, he’s very likely to do well, perhaps even well enough to knock his foe out.
Outlasting Dariush is clearly Dober’s path to victory, but that’s not an easy trail to walk.
Prediction: Dariush via submission
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Middleweight: Tim Boetsch vs. Omari Akhmedov
Best Win for Boetsch? Yushin Okami For Akhmedov? Abdul Razak Alhassan
Current Streak: One loss for “The Barbarian,” two wins and a draw for Akhmedov
X-Factor: Boetsch’s takedown defense
How these two match up: It’s a bit funny to me that Boetsch and Ben Rothwell are competing on the same card. Aside from the obvious physical resemblance, there are some fighting similarities as well. Both men pack considerable power behind their punches, surprising speed and effective kicks, and past inconsistency when it comes to conditioning and takedown defense.
Akhmedov is not particularly similar to Ivanov, though. Despite sharing a Sambo background and suffix with the Bulgarian Heavyweight, Akhmedov is very straight forward in his goals. Pushing forward behind wide hooks, Akhmedov looks to overpower his foe with punches or double leg takedowns.
Will it work against Tim Boetsch?
The answer is a resounding maybe. Boetsch has certainly been physically dominated and out-wrestled in the past — odd considering his own physicality. At the same time, Boetsch has also shucked off wrestlers, ruined their gas tanks with snap kicks, and then clubbed them into unconsciousness from the phone booth range.
Both outcomes are easy to visualize, but I’ll side with the experience and Middleweight resume of “The Barbarian,” who should take over late when Akhmedov’s power-based style drains his own gas tank.
Prediction: Tim Boetsch via decision
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Good stuff JIB... thoroughly enjoyed and agree with almost every single thing you wrote.Comment -
I don't wish, I just look for the best write ups out there.. I do wish to bet accordingly and win bets after capping all the fights in depth.. That's my only wish
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They are helpful short reads.. Good track record of winning picks as well year after year.. Best short fight reads out there IMO. That's why I continue to post them up..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 03-07-19, 07:23 PM.Comment -
In that case I disagree with Smoulka... schnell chin is worrisome but smoulka isn’t the kind of guy who will test it... and secondly I think Louis ground game may be a bit over rated an Schnells under rated on top of the fact schnell should own the stand up exchanges with superior speed and striking skills. Another little something I read is he trained at AKA a bit this camp to help with his wrestling. Schnell finishes Louis in this one. That was my biggest conflict on them all..Comment -
Have the same thoughts on Schnell. He seems like a pretty smart fighter and has been making adjustments in his previous few fights where Schnell's sharping looks sharper and sharper and training at AKA will help him shore up those defensive grappling holes which are worrisome. As far as chin is concerned, it may be improved at 135 (as well as his power). He should beat up Louis easily on the feet. I feel like the chin issues may be overblown too. He took a pretty hard shot from Font at 135 well before that knee which would probably put anyone else out. The hammerfists that put him out came after getting slammed on his head hard twice, so who knows how compromised he was by those.
Smolka on the other hand has taken a lot of damage in the past two fights and was very fortunate that his opponents weren't better grapplers. I feel like Smolka peaked a long time ago and hasn't been doing anything new. He will need TDs here, which alredy puts him at a disadvantage, but his top control has never been good enough to grind out wins. It may be that Smolka has a bigger frame at 135 than Schnell and can keep him down, but at worst it's a very close fight for Schnell if it is 50/50 striking/grappling. If Schnell can force Smolka to miss on TD attempts, it'll look bad for Smolka in the eyes of the judges by how desperate he looks doing them. So we're getting underdog odds on either a close fight at worse, or a pretty clear victory if it stays standing.
Pulled trigger on Schnell decision +200 and am waiting on further movement on the ML since it seems to be going back to the original opener.
PS Welcome to the board Penny, appreciate your thoughts.Comment -
I like JDS in this one. Lewis is certainly dangerous but JDS has typically won in this type of style matchup. JDS has typically soundly beaten slow footed power punchers like Tai Tuivasa, Blagoi Ivanov, Ben Rothwell, Mark Hunt, and Roy Nelson.
The guys that have beaten JDS are typically highly fit and offer a wrestling threat. His only losses in the UFC are to Cain Velasquez, Stipe Miocic, and Alistair Overeem who are all better athletically and technically than Lewis.Comment -
Another point for JDS is that he is a great body puncher and Lewis often gets hurt badly and doubles over if he gets hit to the body.Comment -
Feeling the same way turbo Schnell in both losses was looking pretty good..good point about the Sandoval slams. Smoulka doesn’t really have any great wins either IMO. JDS line getting bet down so much is kind of surprising here Lewis homerun KO or nothing..Comment -
Guys schnell is very weak for 135. Rob font big brothered him to the mat not that long ago. Smolka will definitely be able to create scrambles here I believeComment -
Enjoy this heavyweight writeup on a fight I originally wanted to pass until the props just made zero sense.
Rothwell and Ivanov should take place entirely on the feet as both have decent TDD and neither guy really looks to shoot TD's at all. Ivanov refused to shoot at all against JDS and Rothwell never offered against Overeem or JDS in a 5 rounder as well. On the feet, both guys are on the slow and plodding side movement wise. Rothwell has very weird movement and can look decently agile at times, but his issue over the years has been that he can't catch these faster guys at HW like JDS for example. Ivanov's claim to fame is his sambo win over Fedor back in the day, but he doesn't have one punch power which is a real disadvantage for a guy that is fairly nonathletic as well. His striking is technical and is undeniably solid but he's largely too slow and doesn't pack enough power to win against high level competition. He only has two losses and they are to top 5 HW's in JDS and Volkov. Both of those guys are quicker style HW's that move well and have high level boxing. This match-up is interesting because Rothwell struggles against the same type of opponent.
We touched on Ivanov's lack of power but he does possess an excellent chin as he's never been finished by strikes in his career. Rothwell is also a very durable guy with a great chin as he's only been finished by strikes a few times in his 46 fight career that spans 10 fights. While Rothwell is coming off a 3 year layoff and is now 37 years old, I don't think this is an awful spot to come back in. Ivanov is a low volume but talented striker who shouldn't be able to push the pace or threaten him with his power. Rothwell may take a few minutes to get going but I think he's the much better all around fighter due to the power he has in his hands and his forward pushing tendencies. He's also very dangerous on the mat as he's submitted elite level ground fighters like Josh Barnett. Lastly, Rothwell will have around a 7 inch reach advantage in this fight. Luckily for Ivanov, Rothwell will probably be pushing forward and not using it as well as he could, but he'll still have to get deep into the pocket with Rothwell to land those hands. On the other hand, Rothwell should be able to land off the counter with his reach and how slow both guys are physically.
I don't love loading up on a guy off a 3 year layoff but I find it very hard to believe that Rothwell is finished in this fight unless he's in awful physical shape and has battled major injuries since his last UFC fight. At -255 or so, Ivanov NOT ITD is a very solid play here and can be used as a parlay piece for guys like JDS, Dariush, and Means to get you plus money. I've personally locked in multiple parlays with Ivanov NOT ITD and have also played Rothwell -130 NO CARDS as I think the only finish that is likely is Rothwell. Picking a side seems very easy to me as well here, but due to already having 3+ units on this fight, I find it difficult to load up the wagon on a fight with some definite question marks. I think that the fight goes the distance (FGTD) line at +130 is a little crazy given how durable both fighters are. You can also still get Rothwell by DEC at +400 which has definite value when you factor in parlaying Rothwell ML and the FGTD line isn't as big of a payout as the +400 on that line. At the end of the day, I have to make some tough decisions on how I want to spread out 2-3 more units max on this fight but there are very good options out there and I invite you to draw your own conclusions.Comment -
Nice write-up TP. Interestingly, I was watching the MMA Beat this morning and Luke Thomas had mentioned that Big Ben has refused to do any media for this fight and basically inferred that he is in a strict focus mode with no media. Personally, I like it when fighters are committed to this level, psychologically, because it usually yields decent results. It appears he is really focused on this fight after a 3 year ban (if memory serves me correct). That's a lot of emotion and drive which could translate to a beating - but a 3 year layoff is a 3 year layoff. And, unfortunately, I have tried to find some sort information on the state of his conditioning, which has always been inconsistent for Ben, on social media. But mum's the word fits the narrative here; hence, "no media".
Nevertheless, taking a small bet on Rothwell wouldn't necessarily be a bad move here - I like and agree with many of the points you have made.Comment -
Definitely a concern but Smolka is in no way comparable to Font in terms of strength and power.
Smolka took a long time to secure positions against his last two opponents, both 125ers with zero grappling ability. Save for a great performance against Ben10 one time, he's never been a strong positional grappler, getting reversed repeatedly by competent grapplers.Comment -
Derrick Lewis: Junior dos Santos is ‘the weakest guy that I’m gonna fight’
UFC heavyweight contender Derrick Lewis does not think too highly of former heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos.
Since losing to former champion Stipe Miocic in 2017, Junior dos Santos has gotten himself back on the winning track with two straight victories. He will be looking to extend this streak next Saturday, when he faces number three-ranked Derrick Lewis.
Coming into the fight, Lewis is confident he will get to take out another veteran of the sport.
“He’s probably the weakest guy that I’m gonna fight out of the guys that I’ve fought before. He’s probably like the fifth or the sixth guy,” Lewis told reporter Helen Yee (transcript via MMA Fighting). “I don’t think he’s the toughest guy I’ve ever fought so we’ll see on March 9th.”
Lewis is aware about the high chances of getting knocked out with one shot as a heavyweight. But at the same time, he is assured he will get to dictate the fight’s pace and end it in his own terms.
“It’s like I say all the time, it’s the heavyweight division. It doesn’t matter if the guys a black belt or if he’s a world-class boxer. We still have a 50-50 chance. We’re heavyweights, so it’s just gonna take one punch,” Lewis said.
“... Really, [I’ll end the fight] whatever round I want. If I want to end the fight in the first, I’ll end the fight in the first. If I want to end the fight in the fifth, I’ll end the fight then. So it’s just whenever I get ready to.”
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Handicapped lines are out, JDS -5.5 -135 should be the play if you like him winning.
Has Lewis ever won a round where he didn't knock someone out? Roy I guess, but if you go back and watch that fight again, I still think Lewis should've lost the decision.Comment -
Beast talking major shiiiit about JDS.. Calling him the weakest.. Probably not wise to say these things.. Will get JDS motivated..
JDS isn't the biggest HW, Beast best chance I see is to walk him down and throw bombs while he's still fresh and connect on the chin.. Get JDS backing up..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 03-08-19, 12:18 PM.Comment -
Beast wants him to brawl.....that happens he could win.....JDS needs to stay on his bike and wear BB down....poke the bear lol..Beast talking major shiiiit about JDS.. Calling him the weakest.. Probably not wise to say these things.. Will get JDS motivated..
JDS isn't the biggest HW, Beast best chance I see is to walk him down and throw bombs while he's still fresh and connect on the chin.. Get JDS backing up..
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showing 2 gifs where JDS won lolComment -
haha beast cant walk fast enough....JDS footwork really who I like him here...
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Just showing success when you back him up. That's all.
Oh and Stipe KO'd JDS just to correct your statement..
Junior is 35 years old now.. Not a spring chicken anymore..
https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Junior-dos-Santos-17272
Last edited by JIBBBY; 03-08-19, 01:29 PM.Comment -
Lot of talk about the main event even though it seems pretty cut and dry, anyone have any thoughts on the co?
Saw Millender in Austin against a pretty shot Alves albeit, but looked the part. I was a little concerned that he didn't pounce on him after he rocked him w/ the knee, Alves was hurt and would've been finished regardless, but that image stuck with me. Two fights later, he still seems to be lacking that KI, maybe he wants to live up to his nickname. Felt like he cruised against both Griffin and Bahad, and has looked really bad on the mat defensively.Comment -
The gif you showed Stipe wearing blue shorts and both have sponsors on their shorts , JDS won that fight by decision
he lost the rematch by KO
but yes JDS cannot back up to the cage, he has to circle a ton and ride his bike while landing jabs, body shots and maybe get a takedown until Lewis is super tired and just tag him up maybe get a late finish/ lopsided decisionComment -
You guys think it's likely Dawson/Erosa doesn't go to decision? That's at -205Comment
