UFC 234: Whittaker vs. Gastelum (February 09, 2019)

[Shagdogy]

All prelims favorites - parlay - Boom!

This card looks like a very favorite heavy card. I try to play ML dogs usually but I’ll prob only have parlays for this one.

[Thrilla]

[PaperTrail07]

MMA write ups are not bad...but he is WAY off on the Ishi fight....not a chance he taps in the first.....I see that going the distance...I also see young finishing Arnett...

[Mavsaddict]

Hey guys, 1st post here on SBR. I've been lurking here for years. I appreciate all MMA insight I've received on this forum.

MMA betting has been good to me and I've been a UFC fan since I started renting the UFC VHS tapes as a child. Any and all information helps, it's hard to calculate the weight of specific variables into the outcome of a fight but you can really get an edge if you can "weight" information properly. There is no such thing as a lock so you just have to keep grinding out winning nights.

With that being said, I'd just like to point out that everything points to Kelvin Gastelum to have a staph infection. IMO this should heavily weight into your decision. Kelvin's cardio won't hold up in this fight. Both of these fighters are very violent and without this staph infection there is a decent chance this fight would finish in the first two rounds.

Kelvin could win this fight but I don't think he can win a decision with staph; cardio. I personally favoured Whittaker before hearing about the staph. If Kelvin wins it will probably be by a KO in the first two rounds.

If you like Kelvin I would urge you not to bet on him. Instead to bet on a rock solid No (Fight does not complete 4 full rounds) -145

If you like Robert Whittaker please consider that if Kelvin is suffering from staph that Whittaker will take him out.
Robert Whittaker wins inside distance +125

[Hugo de Naranja]

MMA write ups are not bad...but he is WAY off on the Ishi fight....not a chance he taps in the first.....I see that going the distance...I also see young finishing Arnett...

What odds can I get on Kang R1 Finish or R1 Submission. I’m confident Kang DOES tap Ishi early.

[PaperTrail07]

I'll give you 3:1 on sub finish in the 1st..............300 vs your 100 points....I can send them all ( if lose) at 1 times after they process my "pro" renewal...

What odds can I get on Kang R1 Finish or R1 Submission. I’m confident Kang DOES tap Ishi early.

[Shagdogy]

What odds can I get on Kang R1 Finish or R1 Submission. I’m confident Kang DOES tap Ishi early.

I like a lot about Kang except his offensive TD ability which could be a hole here. Ishi has displayed some pretty decent getups in the past

[Shagdogy]

KKF from -305 to -240 pretty quick. Any info supporting that or just some money getting dumped on Paiva?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like a lot about Kang except his offensive TD ability which could be a hole here. Ishi has displayed some pretty decent getups in the past

Does he? Thought Maynard easily took him down and held him down

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'll give you 3:1 on sub finish in the 1st..............300 vs your 100 points....I can send them all ( if lose) at 1 times after they process my "pro" renewal...

Can I do 500 to win 1500?

[PaperTrail07]

sure can my man All you can eat...

Can I do 500 to win 1500?

[PaperTrail07]

Want to note I currently don't have 1500 but you will be paid ASAP priority if I lose......

Can I do 500 to win 1500?

[Thrilla]

Why isn't anyone on the legend Anderson Silva?

+425 is too low for you? Last time I checked he has more weapons than Adesanya.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Want to note I currently don't have 1500 but you will be paid ASAP priority if I lose......

Sounds good. We are on. I will pay immediately if I lose.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Why isn't anyone on the legend Anderson Silva?

+425 is too low for you? Last time I checked he has more weapons than Adesanya.

No. Adesanya has the best striking toolkit in the UFC. Anderson only has low volume counterstriking and doesn’t have the trigger pulling ability or power he once had. Very unlikely that Silva wins rounds. Think it is KO or bust for him.

[PaperTrail07]

Sounds good. We are on. I will pay immediately if I lose.

[Shagdogy]

Does he? Thought Maynard easily took him down and held him down

I think Maynard has way better TDs than Kang. How many did he land in that fight? Ishi was totally outmatched with the wrestling but he fought tough and climbed to his feet more than once. I think if Kang is gonna keep Ishi on the mat he needs half guard or back take transition right off the TD. He’s an excellent scrambler so I won’t say he can’t do it but he also accepts bottom at times and can get hit by Ishi’s laser left. I don’t think this is a completely cut and dry scenario but I do favor Kang, just not with any value.

[PaperTrail07]

Ishi will 99% be walking backwards but I'm ok w that esp for this bet....he can circle well and is not DUMB....can fight hands, wont give up a RNC that quick IMO....

I think Maynard has way better TDs than Kang. How many did he land in that fight? Ishi was totally outmatched with the wrestling but he fought tough and climbed to his feet more than once. I think if Kang is gonna keep Ishi on the mat he needs half guard or back take transition right off the TD. He’s an excellent scrambler so I won’t say he can’t do it but he also accepts bottom at times and can get hit by Ishi’s laser left. I don’t think this is a completely cut and dry scenario but I do favor Kang, just not with any value.

[UncleChael]

No. Adesanya has the best striking toolkit in the UFC. Anderson only has low volume counterstriking and doesn’t have the trigger pulling ability or power he once had. Very unlikely that Silva wins rounds. Think it is KO or bust for him.

He's also able to strike with a guy named Brad Tavares for 25 minutes and not hurt him. #TellEmUncleChaelSentYa

[JIBBBY]

Why isn't anyone on the legend Anderson Silva?

+425 is too low for you? Last time I checked he has more weapons than Adesanya.

Cause he's an old man at 43 and fighting a young undefeated knock out artist that's why.. Silva's chin is questionably glass now also.. I think he gets dropped. Young mans sport especially when it comes to strikers.

https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Israel-Adesanya-56374

1133 Adesanya wins by TKO/KO

-139

If you must take the Spider his ITD prop has the best value, don't think he's gonna win a decision if it goes the distance.. Might catch a sub or lucky kick KO strike if anything.

1105 Silva wins inside distance

+660

[UncleChael]

Anderson steps in the Octagon 25 times and gets knocked out, once. That's a 4% chance he gets finished. If anyones knocking out anyone, Silva gonna be the guy to do it. Good luck.

[JIBBBY]

Anderson steps in the Octagon 25 times and gets knocked out, once. That's a 4% chance he gets finished. If anyones knocking out anyone, Silva gonna be the guy to do it. Good luck.

At 43 he's too old.. Bisbing rocked him in their fight.. Chin is going and shot now.. Touch it he goes out.. ..




However if Spider can get the MT clinch going he does have a shot at the KO Uncle... Anderson does have those clinch and crazy knee strikes.. Ala Rich Frankin ko's from up knees.



I stand corrected maybe? Anderson Silva could get the KO but it's a long shot this kid is quick he is fighting.. Gonna be tough to grab a hold of..

1129 Silva wins by TKO/KO

+1040

[Shagdogy]

Anderson steps in the Octagon 25 times and gets knocked out, once. That's a 4% chance he gets finished. If anyones knocking out anyone, Silva gonna be the guy to do it. Good luck.

That math is impeccable. Takes into account every variable.

[Shagdogy]

Adesanya has 15 pro fights and 13 KO wins, so he has an 87% chance to KO Anderson here. Fact. -139 is insane value. Hammer it Jibbs.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Maynard has way better TDs than Kang. How many did he land in that fight? Ishi was totally outmatched with the wrestling but he fought tough and climbed to his feet more than once. I think if Kang is gonna keep Ishi on the mat he needs half guard or back take transition right off the TD. He’s an excellent scrambler so I won’t say he can’t do it but he also accepts bottom at times and can get hit by Ishi’s laser left. I don’t think this is a completely cut and dry scenario but I do favor Kang, just not with any value.

Kang has a great back take and I think he puts that to use here.

[Hugo de Naranja]

@ Jibby. I wouldn't say Silva's chin is glass I just don't think he pulls the trigger enough to win rounds. Picking Adesanya by stoppage but would not be surprised if it went the distance. I think Silva needs a finish to win.

[The HOFF]

Rewatched Romero vs Whittaker 2. Whittaker got rocked and dropped by a left hand a few times in the fight. I like Gastelum's chances of landing a left hand bomb given that he's a southpaw. Brunson, also a southpaw, was able to land some decent lefts in his fight with Whittaker. The difference being Gastelum won't run after Whittaker chin first like Brunson did. Going with the upset.

Kelvin Gastelum +205 (5u to win 10.25u)

[jacharron17]

Under 1.5 +150 Silva-Adesanya. Too easy!

[Shagdogy]

Under 1.5 +150 Silva-Adesanya. Too easy!

If I could get even or better on the over I’d take it.

[PaperTrail07]

it was pretty funny-got a laugh out of that myself LOL..

That math is impeccable. Takes into account every variable.

[firekillex]

be careful betting Gastelum looks like he has ring worm and could be on anti biotics

[JIBBBY]

Rewatched Romero vs Whittaker 2. Whittaker got rocked and dropped by a left hand a few times in the fight. I like Gastelum's chances of landing a left hand bomb given that he's a southpaw. Brunson, also a southpaw, was able to land some decent lefts in his fight with Whittaker. The difference being Gastelum won't run after Whittaker chin first like Brunson did. Going with the upset.

Kelvin Gastelum +205 (5u to win 10.25u)

I'll say this Gas does have a chin.. I can't blame you for taking him as a 2-1 underdog.. It is a 5 round fight also, Gas if anyone could certainly finish.

Can Gas win a decision against Whittaker? I don't this so.. With that being said this prop below makes pretty good sense if you are taking Gas.

I still personally think Whittaker wins though but as a 2-1 favorite going in on the straight that is hard to swallow I can't lie.

Gas KO prop even better odds at 3.35 to 1.

1037 Gastelum wins by TKO/KO

+335

[bjpenn85]

Rewatched Romero vs Whittaker 2. Whittaker got rocked and dropped by a left hand a few times in the fight. I like Gastelum's chances of landing a left hand bomb given that he's a southpaw. Brunson, also a southpaw, was able to land some decent lefts in his fight with Whittaker. The difference being Gastelum won't run after Whittaker chin first like Brunson did. Going with the upset.


Kelvin Gastelum +205 (5u to win 10.25u)

Huh, glad im not on whittaker then. I kind of have a strange feeling this welterweight fatty is going to win as well.

[Hugo de Naranja]

One thing Adesanya will have to watch out for are Silva's Head Kicks. Adesanya leans back to avoid Head Kicks all the time and while that technique looks cool if he gets caught with an unblocked Head Kick he is likely getting dropped.

[The HOFF]

I'll say this Gas does have a chin.. I can't blame you for taking him as a 2-1 underdog.. It is a 5 round fight also, Gas if anyone could certainly finish.

Can Gas win a decision against Whittaker? I don't this so.. With that being said this prop below makes pretty good sense if you are taking Gas.

I still personally think Whittaker wins though but as a 2-1 favorite going in on the straight that is hard to swallow I can't lie.

Gas KO prop even better odds at 3.35 to 1.

1037 Gastelum wins by TKO/KO

+335

KO/TKO prop was at +402 just a few days ago. The only thing that gives me pause is thinking Whittaker gets dropped and then Gastelum gets his back/neck in a scramble. ITD got up to +300, but has since dropped backed to around +270. I kind of agree that I don’t see Gastelum winning a decision.