UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi | 14.01.2018 (St. Louis, Missouri)

[Sanity Check]

Hey, everyone. Long time no see.

I'm thinking of upgrading to pro & am interested in knowing how serious are SBR's KYC checks?

Am I the only one thinking this card has a lot of easy plays on it, btw? Some match ups are tempting me to go heavy. Sometimes I think to myself, its ok if I lose. That will only motivate me to not be lazy and work harder. Probably not the best mentality to have.

Eye/Faria at evens (Eye opened as slight dog but the public went in on her). Eye actually has solid fundamentals and a good jab for WMMA. Her problem is she gets stuck with a one way fighting gameplan and she seems to be having trouble adapting properly during a fight. Its do or die for her as she's lost 4 straight with a horrendous 1-5-1 UFC record. The over props for this one are bad.

Any feel for this fight from anybody?

(If I remember right) Eye could have some type of lingering neck injury which she refuses to have surgery on to fix. I'm sure a lot of people expected Eye to be a bigger favorite. That could be the reason for the odds being closer than expected.

By this point, I'm certain bookies have sources and spies in MMA gyms who help them make the proper odds. Its getting harder to go against books in picking underdogs/favorites.

[Shagdogy]

Capped Clark vs. PVZ and I think Clark is an excellent play. I don't think it's a stretch to say she could win this fight 70-75% of the time so I have her capped in the -250 range. If she favors TDD and crisp boxing she should absolutely pick PVZ apart. Interestingly, I think the head kick knock down of Rawlings was a bad thing to happen for PVZ because it seems to have given her false confidence in her striking game from range. She has no hands at all, and her kicks aren't damaging outside of the one kick to Rawlings which, honestly, never should have found a home. If she tries to play that game again in this fight, she will lose a striking match by a wide margin IMO, and if she tries to press the clinch/TD game, I'm not sure she can do it. She was overpowered by Rose and Waterson, and now she's moving up a weight class against a fighter who recently moved down into that weight class. I like Clark in this spot a LOT.

Edit: As I typed this I notice the line has moved even more for PVZ and it's now at -110 for both. I know Clark had her home broken into in Vegas, and PVZ is super popular, but just being safe... does anyone know any other possible reason for the line move?

I'm going to put some on it now and if it keeps improving may add more.

[Sanity Check]

Edit: As I typed this I notice the line has moved even more for PVZ and it's now at -110 for both. I know Clark had her home broken into in Vegas, and PVZ is super popular, but just being safe... does anyone know any other possible reason for the line move?

PVZ moved back to Oregon to be closer to her family and is training with Chael Sonnen and the Team Quest guys. PVZ isn't at team alpha male full time anymore. That could be one reason for the line move.

PVZ has also said she passed out making weight to fight @ 115. The bump up to 125 could give her a bigger advantage than people realize.

There are a lot of different reasons PVZ could be favored.

You could be right about it being PVZ's popularity also since she was on dancing with the stars, cooking shows and has a lot of followers on social media.

[turbozed]

Capped Clark vs. PVZ and I think Clark is an excellent play. I don't think it's a stretch to say she could win this fight 70-75% of the time so I have her capped in the -250 range. If she favors TDD and crisp boxing she should absolutely pick PVZ apart. Interestingly, I think the head kick knock down of Rawlings was a bad thing to happen for PVZ because it seems to have given her false confidence in her striking game from range. She has no hands at all, and her kicks aren't damaging outside of the one kick to Rawlings which, honestly, never should have found a home. If she tries to play that game again in this fight, she will lose a striking match by a wide margin IMO, and if she tries to press the clinch/TD game, I'm not sure she can do it. She was overpowered by Rose and Waterson, and now she's moving up a weight class against a fighter who recently moved down into that weight class. I like Clark in this spot a LOT.

Edit: As I typed this I notice the line has moved even more for PVZ and it's now at -110 for both. I know Clark had her home broken into in Vegas, and PVZ is super popular, but just being safe... does anyone know any other possible reason for the line move?

I'm going to put some on it now and if it keeps improving may add more.

I agree and am on Clark too. I think -110 is a great price but I'm going to wait for a better one come event day. PVZ should get some public action. Cyborg went from - 360 to like -275 fight day sale. I imagine we can get a discount.

[KingHawkins]

I agree and am on Clark too. I think -110 is a great price but I'm going to wait for a better one come event day. PVZ should get some public action. Cyborg went from - 360 to like -275 fight day sale. I imagine we can get a discount.

I fully agree on the market action prediction. I would be pretty surprised if Clark wasn't offered at plus odds across all books by fight time.

Currently, SportsInsights android app shows 53% of action on PVZ. It's worth noting that the app I do not think specifies if that is ticket % or $ % (my guess wold be ticket, which is less valuable info to me than $).

That being said, I personally have to lay off of wagering on the side here. My pick is Clark, but I will not fire. May take a look at the total, I feel like there is value on the under.

On the Eye / Faria fight, I am not confident in Eye. I feel like I will be putting some action on Faria if the price stays the same and I like what I see at weigh-ins. I predict a Faria decision win.

[KingHawkins]

Claressa Shields is about to knock some girl out on ShowTime for anyone who wants to see a girl-fight KO this weekend.

Watching on my Thorstream Elite, a small investment that all of you who bet on or watch a ton of sports should have.

[Shagdogy]

PVZ moved back to Oregon to be closer to her family and is training with Chael Sonnen and the Team Quest guys. PVZ isn't at team alpha male full time anymore. That could be one reason for the line move.

PVZ has also said she passed out making weight to fight @ 115. The bump up to 125 could give her a bigger advantage than people realize.

There are a lot of different reasons PVZ could be favored.

You could be right about it being PVZ's popularity also since she was on dancing with the stars, cooking shows and has a lot of followers on social media.

I think that's a significant downgrade in camp.

[KingHawkins]

I try not to bet more than a couple bucks on MMA totals, but I feel this fight comes to a decision. I think where the line is set, indicates the same.

STRAIGHT WAGER01/13/18 11:41 EST
Bet $ 250.00 to win $ 178.57Result: Pending
UFC Fight Night 124 - Emil Meek vs Kamaru Usman - Round Prop
Over vs Under01/14/18 22:15 EST
Over 2.5 (-140)

[richie360]

Belfort Vs Hall And Alves vs Cummings fights both been scrapped!

[firekillex]

Belfort Vs Hall And Alves vs Cummings fights both been scrapped!

uriah hall didnt even weigh in..... this guy is mentally killing his own career, sad to see with all the talent he has

[Hugo de Naranja]

uriah hall didnt even weigh in..... this guy is mentally killing his own career, sad to see with all the talent he has

Pathetic.

[Thrilla]

Might be the hottest fight ever.

Though hottest fighter ever is Gina Carano. Look at that face! Look at that smile! Omg.

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[Hugo de Naranja]

Though hottest fighter ever is Gina Carano. Look at that face! Look at that smile! Omg.

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Yeah she was. Pretty solid fighter too. Only ever lost to Cyborg.

[turbozed]

Yeah she was. Pretty solid fighter too. Only ever lost to Cyborg.

I think I got around even odds on Cyborg on that fight. Cheapest Cyborg price ever.

[Sanity Check]

I think that's a significant downgrade in camp.

PVZ's wrestling sucked when she trained at Team Alpha Male. She was outwrestled and dominated badly by Thug Rose.

That might've been because PVZ didn't train with any of the good wrestlers there. She trained with a bunch of scrubs who didn't push her hard enough.

If PVZ takes her training more seriously at Team Quest she might actually be better than she was at Alpha Male.

[Demonata]

This card is turning to shit!

[Shagdogy]

PVZ's wrestling sucked when she trained at Team Alpha Male. She was outwrestled and dominated badly by Thug Rose.

That might've been because PVZ didn't train with any of the good wrestlers there. She trained with a bunch of scrubs who didn't push her hard enough.

If PVZ takes her training more seriously at Team Quest she might actually be better than she was at Alpha Male.

I don't understand this argument. TAM has some real good wrestlers and a lot of them are smal guys that she could get some relevant training in against. So somehow you're saying it's a positive that she's in a camp with 1/4 the elite fighters and almost none of them are her size just because she might try harder?

Also, do you know that PVZ trained with scrubs at TAM?

Check her twitter, there's about 5 people in all of her training photos. 4 dudes twice her size and one out of shape chick. I don't think she's got the resources she needs where she is at.

[turbozed]

I don't understand this argument. TAM has some real good wrestlers and a lot of them are smal guys that she could get some relevant training in against. So somehow you're saying it's a positive that she's in a camp with 1/4 the elite fighters and almost none of them are her size just because she might try harder?

Also, do you know that PVZ trained with scrubs at TAM?

Check her twitter, there's about 5 people in all of her training photos. 4 dudes twice her size and one out of shape chick. I don't think she's got the resources she needs where she is at.

She moved to Oregon to be close to family and because she's dating one of those dudes at the small garage gym. The choice is pretty obviously personal and not with any focus on improving her skills. She could've had Cynthia Coalville as a training partner instead of no name Oregon chick.

Maybe the only benefit is that TAM might have been too distracting for her because she dated a lot of guys there and there mightve been too much drama to focus.

[Sanity Check]

Also, do you know that PVZ trained with scrubs at TAM?

In one of the UFC embeddeds, the guy training PVZ @ team alpha male had something like a 1-4 pro MMA record.

PVZ never trained with the men at alpha male the way Cynthia Calvillo does, as far as I know.

That's why PVC got outwrestled & dominated by Thug Rose.

If PVZ has better trainers / sparring partners she might have improved over where she was at TAM.

[Shagdogy]

In one of the UFC embeddeds, the guy training PVZ @ team alpha male had something like a 1-4 pro MMA record.

PVZ never trained with the men at alpha male the way Cynthia Calvillo does, as far as I know.

That's why PVC got outwrestled & dominated by Thug Rose.

If PVZ has better trainers / sparring partners she might have improved over where she was at TAM.

We'll see. She better get takedowns cause she's gonna get pieced up on the feet.

[ImmortalKrop]

What’s the reasoning for the Aldana line drop? She was one of my more confident bets on this card

[TPowell]

Going to try to get into the rest of this card tomorrow morning. Been on the road for 6+ hours (300+ miles) traveling back home in the snow and ice. Playing with this Bovada casino bonus right now. Trying to roll it over for a little $300 gift while I watch some games.

[KingHawkins]

Any Invicta picks from anyone? 4 lined lady fights coming up shortly.

[turbozed]

Any Invicta picks from anyone? 4 lined lady fights coming up shortly.

I put a tiny action bet down on Cheri Muraski since she's a gritty as hell tough as hell 38 year old widower. Not much footage of Brogan Walker out there unfortunately so I can't recommend doing the same. Just don't like the chances of a young Guamanian with a few fights under her belt flying over here to face someone that tough.

[KingHawkins]

Dang Turbo, I would tail you blindly without any research here for some action, but that is not one of the 8 fighters I can wager on. May fire a few bucks on all of the dogs just for fun.

Thanks for the reply and best of luck!!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

I put a tiny action bet down on Cheri Muraski since she's a gritty as hell tough as hell 38 year old widower. Not much footage of Brogan Walker out there unfortunately so I can't recommend doing the same. Just don't like the chances of a young Guamanian with a few fights under her belt flying over here to face someone that tough.

I bet Cheri as well. She trains at my gym and likely has a grappling advantage here.

[TPowell]

Damn I would have tailed. Too late

[KingHawkins]

I love the value on Pannie Kianzad and Ashley Nichols. $25 on each at +270/180 , respectively.

[turbozed]

Dang Turbo, I would tail you blindly without any research here for some action, but that is not one of the 8 fighters I can wager on. May fire a few bucks on all of the dogs just for fun.

Thanks for the reply and best of luck!!!

Good thing you didn't. Muraski lost by split decision. Thought she should've won. Still good price.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good thing you didn't. Muraski lost by split decision. Thought she should've won. Still good price.

Had it 29-28 for her as well

[KingHawkins]

I also had her winning, but yeah, lucky I couldn't tail... Invicta judging, sketchy like UFC. keeping girls undefeated. been a few great fights so far. better than the football game

[Hugo de Naranja]

I also had her winning, but yeah, lucky I couldn't tail... Invicta judging, sketchy like UFC. keeping girls undefeated. been a few great fights so far. better than the football game

Muraski was undefeated too.

[KingHawkins]

0-2 -$50, should have just watched.
The fight where the muscle-bound, Yoel Romero midget Wang girl took two separate illegal knees to the head from that Muay thai lady (boy looking) dude Lookboonmee was pretty awesome. FOTN for sure. Or maybe just busted face of the night. I hope some of you guys saw that one, it was a good watch.

[turbozed]

0-2 -$50, should have just watched.
The fight where the muscle-bound, Yoel Romero midget Wang girl took two separate illegal knees to the head from that Muay thai lady (boy looking) dude Lookboonmee was pretty awesome. FOTN for sure. Or maybe just busted face of the night. I hope some of you guys saw that one, it was a good watch.

That was one of the most entertaining fights I've ever seen in Invicta. Some high level MT clinchwork by Loma. Also the first time I've seen a girl throw like 30 standing elbows but only 2 or 3 standing punches in an mma fight.

Oh, and 3 or 4 beautiful MT style clinch throws/dumps

[turbozed]

Had it 29-28 for her as well

Between this and two 48-47s in Cyborg/Holly, incompetent judging has screwed me out of over $1k in the past two fights I've had bets on.

If there were a way to handicap, strategize, or hedge poor judging, I'd really like to know. I don't recall being on the winning end of a controversial decision in 2017.