UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio (July 16, 2017)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-05-17, 02:05 PM

Some decent fights scattered throughout. Both the main and co-main events are good

**PaperTrail07** · 07-05-17, 03:21 PM

Good Stuff

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 07-10-17, 12:07 PM

looks like early action coming in on Ponzinibbio

**bjpenn85** · 07-10-17, 04:18 PM

I have faith in Nelsons takedowns. He gets them although it doesnt always look so pretty. Either by strikes or by something in between. Dropped thatch and jouban. Also set up td by strikes in the vs tumenov. Ponzinibbio isnt a good bet at current price. I would need to see +300 to bet it.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-10-17, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

I have faith in Nelsons takedowns. He gets them although it doesnt always look so pretty. Either by strikes or by something in between. Dropped thatch and jouban. Also set up td by strikes in the vs tumenov. Ponzinibbio isnt a good bet at current price. I would need to see +300 to bet it.

That Club 'n Sub is real. Nelson is such a good finisher

**Sanity Check** · 07-10-17, 06:30 PM

Conor is training for Floyd & might not be able to help Gunnar Nelson prepare as much as he did in past fights. Its tough to predict whether that will make a difference. Gunnar Nelson might not be as sharp on his feet as he usually is. So many intangibles & unquantifiable variables in MMA fights.

**JIBBBY** · 07-10-17, 10:49 PM

Double post

**JIBBBY** · 07-10-17, 10:53 PM

So this card got next up... Looks decent at a quick glance..

I give Ponz a very good chance against Gunnar Nelson.. Ponz has beaten some tough guys http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Santi...zinibbio-64593

**Ty$** · 07-11-17, 09:09 PM

IDK Jibbs Gunnar has only lost to other guys that can control him. I say he finds a way to mat eventually and subs him. Definitely over 1.5 I'd say. Gunnar has taken out big strikers already. This fight could go past 3 rounds too.

**JIBBBY** · 07-11-17, 10:23 PM

Originally posted by Ty$

IDK Jibbs Gunnar has only lost to other guys that can control him. I say he finds a way to mat eventually and subs him. Definitely over 1.5 I'd say. Gunnar has taken out big strikers already. This fight could go past 3 rounds too.

Gunnar by sub is certainly a solid hedge option if the odds are right.. Ponz is tough though and has never lost by submission..

**firekillex** · 07-11-17, 11:04 PM

Gunnar will win this

**bjpenn85** · 07-11-17, 11:53 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Gunnar by sub is certainly a solid hedge option if the odds are right.. Ponz is tough though and has never lost by submission..

Never lost because he never gets taken down. When gunnar takes him down, im sure hes blackbelt will help him a little bit. But its not enough to withstand the sub from happening at some point, i believe. Laflare had him in many dangerous positions nelson would have snapped a sub easy so you cant blindly look at sherdog jibby. Gotta watch the tape!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-11-17, 11:59 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Never lost because he never gets taken down. When gunnar takes him down, im sure hes blackbelt will help him a little bit. But its not enough to withstand the sub from happening at some point, i believe. Laflare had him in many dangerous positions nelson would have snapped a sub easy so you cant blindly look at sherdog jibby. Gotta watch the tape!

Ponz gets taken down and knocked down plenty. Not sure what you're talking about here

**JIBBBY** · 07-12-17, 12:49 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Never lost because he never gets taken down. When gunnar takes him down, im sure hes blackbelt will help him a little bit. But its not enough to withstand the sub from happening at some point, i believe. Laflare had him in many dangerous positions nelson would have snapped a sub easy so you cant blindly look at sherdog jibby. Gotta watch the tape!

BJ I know Gunnar Nelson well and his skills and I know Ponz and don't ever think I don't watch tapes.. I just reference Sherdog because it's easy and straight forward.. I can't post Fight Pass vids either..

Gunnar is decent on the ground but not like Demian Maia.. Gunnar is also hit and miss in fights, has that stupid ass karate style stand up that won't work against elite strikers...

I do think GN has a good chance of winning though and that's why I said Gunnar by sub is a solid hedge if he can get the fight to the ground.. I wouldn't brush off Ponz with an automatic loss to Gunnar though... Dude is what 6-2 in the UFC, on a 4 fight win streak, tall fighter and will be able to hold his own against Gunnar I believe..

We'll see what happens?.. I'll probably play it Ponz by dec and Gunnar by sub as a hedge..

**JIBBBY** · 07-12-17, 01:00 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Ponz gets taken down and knocked down plenty. Not sure what you're talking about here

Right BJ is talking out of his ass... Ponz is not dead in the water when taken down.. Like I said he's never been sub'd and has many more pro fights then Gunnar Nelson.. Can't write the guy off just like that, he is on 4 fight win streak in the UFC against decent guys.. Tough guys..

**firekillex** · 07-12-17, 01:01 AM

damian maia has a 31% takedown accuracy hes not even that great at take downs as you think he is imo.... he just creates scrambles or jumps guard finds different ways to get the fight to the mat or even chain wrestles and jumps on the guys back, hes been stuffed on takedowns more then any fighter ive ever seen imo

and Gunnars last 2 fights were against above average strikers in Jouban and Tumenov ( who beat larkin in a striking match )
Santiago has fought 2 top level ufc guys and lost to both so far, Gunnar is top 10 material as well so lets see if he can beat a top guy this time if not hes 0-3 and gatekeeper status which i think is very likely

and santiago was taken down at will versus Laflare 5 takedowns and he was passing positions but Laflare isnt really a submission threat at all ( only has 1 sub in the UFC) so you cant really say Ponzinbio can defend submissions until an elite sub artist is ontop of him ) imo

**JIBBBY** · 07-12-17, 01:04 AM

Ponz is not a fish out water on the ground..

Ponzinibbio (24-3) has quietly put together one heck of a run, winning four straight, including two by TKO. The Argentinian striker has only lost to Lorenz Larkin since 2013, emerging victorious six of his last seven fights. Ponzinibbio, 30, trains out of Rio de Janeiro and is an alum of The Ultimate Fighter Brazil.

**firekillex** · 07-12-17, 01:10 AM

6-2 lost to both guys top 15 talent
and his best win outta those 6 was against a 26th ranked guy currently
Gunnar is a better fighter , Ponzinibbio is a solid striker but Gunnar has more skills in his arsenal period imo

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-12-17, 01:10 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Right BJ is talking out of his ass... Ponz is not dead in the water when taken down.. Like I said he's never been sub'd and has many more pro fights then Gunnar Nelson.. Can't write the guy off just like that, he is on 4 fight win streak in the UFC against decent guys.. Tough guys..

I think Gunnar wins but I like Ponz decision as a hedge. Ponz no easy out.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-12-17, 01:24 AM

What worries me about Ponz is that his kicks get caught all the time (potentially leading to TDs) and Gunnar is an excellent finisher on the ground. He can also get the fight to the mat by scoring traditional American-style TDs, clinch trips, or knocking Ponz down like he did against Jouban. I think the chin of Ponz isn't terrible but it is overrated and he's been dropped in several fights.

**bjpenn85** · 07-12-17, 03:09 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I think Gunnar wins but I like Ponz decision as a hedge. Ponz no easy out.

Last year i bet ponz, i have much respect for him. And as i said, hes a black belt. But both his footwork and his tdd represent threat to gunnar. Gunnar has a very good chin, so the fight may end up looking like the gunnar vs rick story fight.

But i dont think it will end that way, i also will use ponz dec as a hedge.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-12-17, 03:10 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Last year i bet ponz, i have much respect for him. And as i said, hes a black belt. But both his footwork and his tdd represent threat to gunnar. Gunnar has a very good chin, so the fight may end up looking like the gunnar vs rick story fight.

But i dont think it will end that way, i also will use ponz dec as a hedge.

He does have a good chin. Can't think of a time where he was knocked down despite taking some big shots. Both guys a bit hittable imo

**bjpenn85** · 07-12-17, 03:19 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Right BJ is talking out of his ass... Ponz is not dead in the water when taken down.. Like I said he's never been sub'd and has many more pro fights then Gunnar Nelson.. Can't write the guy off just like that, he is on 4 fight win streak in the UFC against decent guys.. Tough guys..

Last two fights he hasnt been taken down at all? Isnt that statement 100% incorrect?

**JIBBBY** · 07-12-17, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I think Gunnar wins but I like Ponz decision as a hedge. Ponz no easy out.

Agreed.. If Ponz is to win it's probably gonna be by decision.. Gunnar is hard to KO or SUB, fights at distance as well with slightly better then average defense...

**Demonata** · 07-12-17, 01:11 PM

One of my favorite fighters David teymur is fighting

go Sweden represent.

**JIBBBY** · 07-12-17, 01:12 PM

UFC Fight Night 113 - Lightweight 3 rounds - The SSE Hydro - Glascow, Scotland - FS1
Sun 7/16	1201 Stevie Ray	-125	o2½ -240
4:30PM	1202 Paul Felder	-105	u2½ +180

Paul Felder vs Stevie Ray at even money is an interesting scrap.. Felder brings it in every fight but I don't trust him.. I've lost money betting on Felder in the past and am a little gun shy..

Paul has won 3 of 4 but average guys.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Paul-Felder-68205

Stevie has never been KO'd and has won 5 of 6 in the UFC.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Steven-Ray-59838

Felder wins his fights by KO mostly so I'm not sure Felder can drop Stevie or out point him round after round...

Kinda liking Stevie and by decision in this one.. Anyone have thoughts on this fight?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-12-17, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by Demonata

One of my favorite fighters David teymur is fighting

go Sweden represent.

David has been a money train for me but this is actually his older brother Daniel Teymur who is making his UFC debut.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-12-17, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Paul Felder vs Stevie Ray at even money is an interesting scrap.. Felder brings it in every fight but I don't trust him.. I've lost money betting on Felder in the past and am a little gun shy..

Paul has won 3 of 4 but average guys.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Paul-Felder-68205

Stevie has never been KO'd and has won 5 of 6 in the UFC.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Steven-Ray-59838

Felder wins his fights by KO mostly so I'm not sure Felder can drop Stevie or out point him round after round...

Kinda liking Stevie and by decision in this one.. Anyone have thoughts on this fight?

Totally on board. Ray (-110) is my biggest bet of the card so far. The only fight he lost in the UFC he was outwrestled. I think it will be a tight kickboxing match where Ray edges rounds. I think the fact that it is in Scotland also makes a big difference. Felder is always in close fights and Scottish judges will likely give any close rounds to the hometown fighter (think Theodorou vs. Ferreira or Markos vs. Esparza type stuff).

**JIBBBY** · 07-12-17, 01:23 PM

This is another one of those off time Sunday cards in Glasgow, Scottland.. Uggggh... These cards can be tricky...

Been to Glasgow and spent a bit of time over there... Kinda funny the Scotts are hosting a UFC event and in Glasgow..

**Sirius** · 07-12-17, 01:46 PM

Hey all

I was gonna say look no further than the location. Gotta take homie... I was against Ray in his last fight and was impressed...

Same case for JoJo at home... I think Calvillo is prime for a set back but Calderwood sort of plods along so I may lay off it.

Never heard of Smith's Brazilian opponent, Lemos, but she's undefeated and gets KOs. I am ultra fade on Smith...just looks like an old loser (Seery, the same).

I also heavily lean against Jane, Marshman beats him up, and that fker "bearjew" he got me off to a terrible start in his last fight. What is he going to do against Rountree but get hit? ...comes down to Rountree fighting to stay up....same with Marshman it seems.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-12-17, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by Sirius

Hey all

I was gonna say look no further than the location. Gotta take homie... I was against Ray in his last fight and was impressed...

Same case for JoJo at home... I think Calvillo is prime for a set back but Calderwood sort of plods along so I may lay off it.

Never heard of Smith's Brazilian opponent, Lemos, but she's undefeated and gets KOs. I am ultra fade on Smith...just looks like an old loser (Seery, the same).

I also heavily lean against Jane, Marshman beats him up, and that fker "bearjew" he got me off to a terrible start in his last fight. What is he going to do against Rountree but get hit? ...comes down to Rountree fighting to stay up....same with Marshman it seems.

Think the line is a bit off in Calvillo+Calderwood. I like Calvillo a lot and think she can go far but JoJo is a huge step over a jobber like Amanda Cooper or a very inexperienced fighter like Pearl Gonzalez.

Also, I also don't think Leslie Smith is any good but Lemos doesn't impress me much either.

**Ty$** · 07-12-17, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

UFC Fight Night 113 - Lightweight 3 rounds - The SSE Hydro - Glascow, Scotland - FS1
Sun 7/16	1201 Stevie Ray	-125	o2½ -240
4:30PM	1202 Paul Felder	-105	u2½ +180

Paul Felder vs Stevie Ray at even money is an interesting scrap.. Felder brings it in every fight but I don't trust him.. I've lost money betting on Felder in the past and am a little gun shy..

Paul has won 3 of 4 but average guys.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Paul-Felder-68205

Stevie has never been KO'd and has won 5 of 6 in the UFC.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Steven-Ray-59838

Felder wins his fights by KO mostly so I'm not sure Felder can drop Stevie or out point him round after round...

Kinda liking Stevie and by decision in this one.. Anyone have thoughts on this fight?

Stevie Ray didn't impress me against Joe Lauzon. This fight will be extra close and if Stevie fights like he did against Joe he will lose. The easy pick is OVER 2.5.

**Ty$** · 07-12-17, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Think the line is a bit off in Calvillo+Calderwood. I like Calvillo a lot and think she can go far but JoJo is a huge step over a jobber like Amanda Cooper or a very inexperienced fighter like Pearl Gonzalez.

Also, I also don't think Leslie Smith is any good but Lemos doesn't impress me much either.

You're right but I think she takes JOJO down and gets an easy sub. I like this sexy mexi a lot!!!!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-12-17, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by Ty$

Stevie Ray didn't impress me against Joe Lauzon. This fight will be extra close and if Stevie fights like he did against Joe he will lose. The easy pick is OVER 2.5.

What didn't impress you? Lauzon steamrolled him early but he does that against a lot of guys. Ray pieced him up for the later rounds. Although TDD is still a liability, I don't think it will play much of a role in his matchup.