UFC 208: Holm vs. de Randamie (February 11, 2017)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

PPV 10:00 p.m. ET
Holly Holm vs Germain de Randanie (for women's featherweight title)
Derek Brunson vs Anderson Silva
Ronaldo Souza vs Tim Boetsch
Jared Cannonier vs Glover Teixeira
Jim Miller vs Dustin Poirier

Fox Sports 1, 8:00 p.m. ET
Randy Brown vs Belal Muhammad
Wilson Reis vs Ulka Sasaki
Nik Lentz vs Islam Makhachev
Ian McCall vs Jarred Brooks

UFC Fight Pass 6:30 p.m. ET
Marcin Tybura vs Justin Willis
Roan Carneiro vs Ryan LaFlare
Rick Glenn vs Phillipe Nover

[UncleChael]

#ANDNEW ... Germaine De Randamie.

[PaperTrail07]

Glover and Maka Roll w ease......

[Alex Hart]

How do you pros see the Silva vs Brunson fight going?

[Unwritten Law]

I'm on Brunson. He was on a roll until he fought a terrible gameplan vs a heavy hitter like Whittaker. Probably a lot of jitters, pressure, and was on enemy soil over there. Think he gets back on track here and probably KO's Silva cold.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm on Brunson. He was on a roll until he fought a terrible gameplan vs a heavy hitter like Whittaker. Probably a lot of jitters, pressure, and was on enemy soil over there. Think he gets back on track here and probably KO's Silva cold.

If Brunson fights stupid again he will certainly get KO'ed but I think he will adjust and take Silva down. He shouldn't have much of a problem controlling Silva on the ground but Silva is dangerous throughout so Brunson might be in trouble late if he gets tired.

[Shagdogy]

Just went to cap Tybura vs. Willis... damn Willis can bang. He's a tank and his hands are dynamite. There's very little footage on him, and he's coming in on super late notice with probably some poor cardio. Makes me think he will come out and look to KO immediately. I don't know what it is, but I like what I see from this guy, and Tybura can definitely get hit. Hoping Willis opens a heavy dog cause he's worth a stab IMO.

[JIBBBY]

Good card!!!

All in on Brunson and Souza... Liking Glover too... DP should punk Jim Miller as well..

Thinking Nick Lentz might get the upset win as well.. Still capping this event though..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good card!!!

All in on Brunson and Souza... Liking Glover too... DP should punk Jim Miller as well..

Thinking Nick Lentz might get the upset win as well.. Still capping this event though..

Glad to hear you're thinking some of the same things

[richie360]

Brunson ITD is +200.

[Thor4140]

Jibby, i thought for sure u would be all over the "Killa Gorilla"

[PaperTrail07]

Lentz will not upset anything IMO

Good card!!!

All in on Brunson and Souza... Liking Glover too... DP should punk Jim Miller as well..

Thinking Nick Lentz might get the upset win as well.. Still capping this event though..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Brunson ITD is +200.

Where is that?

[JIBBBY]

Maybe you guys are right.. Nick Letz is pretty scrappy though and could tap that chin... Islam will have a pretty large height advantage.. Backing off Nick Letz now.. Was thinking maybe Lentz could land something like Martins did..

Took another look and changed my mind.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Islam-Makhachev-76836

I just remembered seeing this happen recently.. That is all... Islam by decision or sub.. Nick is a survivor though so maybe the decision prop is the call?

[JIBBBY]

Where is that?

It's not out yet.. No props up yet except for the Holly Holm fight..

[Hugo de Naranja]

It's not out yet.. No props up yet except for the Holly Holm fight..

That's what I thought. Basic 7 props should be out today.

[JIBBBY]

MMA Mania write ups are out on the prelims.. Parts 1 and 2... The basics..






145 lbs.: Phillipe Nover (11-7-1) vs. Rick Glenn (18-4-1)

After going 0-3 in his first UFC run, Nover put together a 5-2 run on the regional circuit to return to the promotion five years later. In his first fight back, he defeated Yui Chul Nam, then lost decisions to Zubaira Tukhugov and Renan Barao. He is three inches shorter than the 6’0" Glenn.
"The Gladiator" entered the UFC as the former WSOF Featherweight Champion and with a 16-1-1 record in his previous eighteen fights. None of that could save him from Evan Dunham, who overpowered the late-notice replacement for a decision win. Ten of his eighteen victories have come by knockout.
I don’t have super high expectations for Glenn’s ceiling, but Nover has just been such a disappointment that I can’t in good conscience pick him. There’s a valid argument to be made that he should be 0-6 in the UFC.
Though Glenn’s takedown defense has failed him in the past, Nover is a far cry from the likes of Lance Palmer and Evan Dunham in the wrestling department. On the feet, I favor Glenn’s meat-and-potatoes boxing over Nover’s generally ineffective kickboxing. "The Gladiator" boxes his way to a decision win.
Prediction: Glenn by unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Randy Brown (9-1) vs. Belal Muhammad (10-2)

The first graduate of Dana White’s "Lookin’ for a Fight," Brown took a decision over Canadian brawler Matt Dwyer in his UFC debut before submitting to a rear-naked choke from Mike Graves. Undaunted, he finished up his four-fight 2016 campaign with stoppage victories over Erick Montaño and Brian Camozzi. He will have four inches of height and six of reach on Muhammad.

"Remember the Name" earned Fight of the Night honors in his UFC debut against Alan Jouban, then earned his first promotional victory by stopping Augusto Montaño two months later. Another quick turnaround saw him face Vicente Luque, who knocked Muhammad cold in just 79 seconds. He steps in for George Sullivan, who’s once again found himself in hot water with the USADA, on a week’s notice.
I’m going to be straight with you: this is a pure gut pick. I don’t know if I’m overvaluing Muhammad’s win over Steve Carl or what, but I just can’t shake the feeling that he wins this. Brown has yet to fully maximize his ridiculous physical gifts and Muhammad is exactly the sort of tough bastard to mercilessly exploit what deficiencies remain.
Brown could certainly pick Muhammad apart from long range, but I have faith in the latter’s grit and boxing technique. He pieces Brown up on his way to a decision win.
Prediction: Muhammad via unanimous decision


125 lbs.: Wilson Reis vs. Yuta Sasaki

After splitting his first two UFC bouts at Bantamweight, Wilson Reis (21-6) made the drop to 125 pounds and impressively won three of his next four fights. This put him in line to face Demetrious Johnson at UFC 201, only for "Mighty Mouse" to get injured and leave Reis to submit late replacement Hector Sandoval.
He will give up six inches of height to the 5’10" Yuta Sasaki (19-3-2).
"Ulka" turned heads with an impressive submission of Roland Delorme in his UFC debut, but stoppage losses to Leandro Issa and Taylor Lapilus sapped his momentum. Dropping to flyweight, he made his divisional debut last March with a submission of Willie Gates.
He owns 10 wins by submission, nine of them by rear-naked choke.
I will be extremely surprised if Reis doesn’t dominate here. He possesses the same grappling prowess that Issa used to overwhelm Sasaki, bolstered by a superior wrestling game and massively improved striking. Reis’s only real weakness at this point is his tendency to get clipped once a fight, but "Ulka’s" striking is far too underdeveloped to take advantage of that.
You know me and Japanese mixed martial arts (MMA). When I say a Japanese fighter is going to get thrashed, that means I’m pretty damn certain. Reis with an early submission.
Prediction: Reis via first-round submission

155 lbs.: Nik Lentz vs. Islam Makhachev

Nik Lentz's (27-7-2) nearly three-year run as a Featherweight came to an end in 2015 when he suffered a submission loss to Charles Oliveira in their long-brewing rematch. Upon returning to Lightweight, he scraped by Danny Castillo two Decembers ago and pounded out late replacement Michael McBride nine months later.
Lentz is two inches shorter than Islam Makhachev (13-1), standing 5’8."
A long-time training partner of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev ran through Leo Kuntz in his Octagon debut before winding up on the wrong end a surprise knockout loss to Adriano Martins his next time out. After a brief scuffle with United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA), he returned to action in Sept. 2016 with a win over fellow grappler Chris Wade.
Six of his eight stoppage wins have come by submission.
Lentz honestly seems like he’s run out of steam. Against Oliveira and Castillo, he looked slow and vulnerable, a far cry from the furious pace he used to overwhelm the likes of Diego Nunes and Hacran Dias. Without the X-factor of that attrition, he’s in trouble against a superior technician in Makhachev.
Makhachev still lacks the sort of physical dominance that Nurmagomedov uses so well, but he’s so smooth with his takedowns and grappling that it might not even matter here. He puts Lentz on his back over and over for a clear decision victory.
Prediction: Makhachev via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Ian McCall vs. Jarred Brooks

Once the top-ranked Flyweight in the world, Ian McCall (13-5-1) has seen his career grind to a halt since losing to an overweight John Lineker in Jan. 2015. "Uncle Creepy" has seen five consecutive fights disintegrate, some at the last minute, and will be competing for the first time in two years.
He is two inches taller and nine years older than Jarred Brooks (11-0).
A standout wrestler from Warsaw, Indiana, Brooks has emerged as a top prospect at the age of 23. He has stopped four of his last five opponents, most recently the previously unbeaten Jun Nakamura on Fight Pass. He replaces Neil Seery -- who pulled out because of a death in the family -- on short notice.
When I say Brooks is a top prospect, I mean it. He’s got great takedowns, solid top control and hits damn hard. He does, however, have two major issues that will likely sink him against McCall. The first is size -- he wrestled at 113 pounds and has twice fought at Strawweight in the last 12 months.
The second is striking technique. Brooks charges forward, winging bombs without really moving his head or mixing in other striking styles. That could very well be enough against McCall -- who will almost certainly be incredibly rusty -- but "Uncle Creepy’s" solid footwork and sharp boxing should be able to overcome that.
Brooks has the skills to win this and has almost every intangible going his way. McCall is just too experienced. Expect him to narrowly edge out a decision with good movement and counter-striking.
Prediction: McCall via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Ryan LaFlare vs. Roan Carneiro

Ryan LaFlare (12-1) handily dispatched his first four UFC opponents, including The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veterans Santiago Ponzinibbio and Court McGee, to earn a main event slot opposite Demian Maia in 2015. Though he fell to the resurgent Brazilian, he rebounded with a win over stalwart veteran Mike Pierce.
This will be his first fight in exactly 14 months.
Roan Carneiro (21-10) -- who first joined the UFC in 2007 -- returned to the Octagon after 6.5 years away to submit Mark Munoz at UFC 184. Since then, he’s suffered a knockout loss to Derek Brunson and eked out a split decision over Kenny Robertson to raise his record to 4-4 in the promotion.
He owns 10 wins by submission overall.
Literally, the only real concern here is how confident I am in LaFlare -- fighters tend to massively underperform when I put this much faith in them. He’s the better striker, the better wrestler, and his top game is more than enough to shut down Carneiro’s submissions.
LaFlare’s layoff is a bit troubling, but it’s not terribly longer than ones he’s had before. He should cruise to a decision.
Prediction: LaFlare via unanimous decision

[Alex Hart]

Are you pros leaning towards Germaine De Randamie, or is still to early to say?

[MMANick]

I like Holm to keep the fight at range and be able to avoid being taken down. I think her cardio is far superior as well. I'm on Holm to win this one.

[richie360]

It's not out yet.. No props up yet except for the Holly Holm fight..

Bet 365.

[JIBBBY]

Bet 365.

Ok Richie Rich, I'm not with that book even though I want to be, they don't take Americans

Racists

[richie360]

Ok Richie Rich, I'm not with that book even though I want to be, they don't take Americans

Racists

They put the lines out quicker than any book I no of.

[PaperTrail07]

Honestly Martins was a BEAST that day....I expect Mak to roll Lentz with Ease...

Maybe you guys are right.. Nick Letz is pretty scrappy though and could tap that chin... Islam will have a pretty large height advantage.. Backing off Nick Letz now.. Was thinking maybe Lentz could land something like Martins did..

Took another look and changed my mind.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Islam-Makhachev-76836

I just remembered seeing this happen recently.. That is all... Islam by decision or sub.. Nick is a survivor though so maybe the decision prop is the call?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Huge steam on Poirier and Makhachev

[JC2008]

Anderson Silva +800 decision?! Unlikely, but you never know with the shady-ass officiating in MMA.

[PaperTrail07]

Glover is next

Huge steam on Poirier and Makhachev

[PaperTrail07]

Glover from -165 to -200 already...

[JIBBBY]

Huge steam on Poirier and Makhachev

Yep I missed out on that.. Still no action on either yet.. Will play props instead of straights.. Anything over -200 I turn to prop play these days with the UFC....

Maybe a parlay on the straights at heavy odds, haven't been doing that lately though on the UFC cards.. Bellator every time as the favorites typically always hit....

[MMANick]

I think Poirier is going to starch Jim. He has a huge athletic advantage and should be one step ahead the whole time. I also see Makhachev winning, but Lentz is a game grinder and won't go away easy.

I really like Uncle Creepy at the price hes at. He's fighting a tough prospect, but Creepy has an advantage almost everywhere here and is going to be the bigger guy. Anybody else liking this fight? It's not long ago that Creepy was one of the divisions best and he only loses to quality opposition.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Yep Nick, I'm leaning Mcall also.. Uncle Creepy probably pulls his one off.. I'll take him by decision..

[Unwritten Law]

Just rewatched the Silva vs Bisping fight. Silva repeatedly kept his hands low and just bobs and weaves without utilizing minimal footwork to avoid punches. He got clipped a couple times that put him on his stool. With Brunson's power I don't think it would be wise of him to play roulette like he did when Weidman caught him. We might see Silva knocked silly come Saturday. The only thing I'm afraid of is if Brunson is too nice. He already mentioned there will be no trash talk, praised Silva as the GOAT, and has a lot of respect for him. I hope he won't be gun shy to pull the trigger on that chin.

[JC2008]

I'm leaning Brunson by decision, myself.

[Hugo de Naranja]

How do you pros see the Silva vs Brunson fight going?

After further thought, I think Brunson gets lands a pair of hooks and KO's Silva stiff. Either way I think this one ends ITD.

[Unwritten Law]

Silva's chin was definitely shot after the Weidman KO, and he took some solid ones from Bisping and Cormier manhandled him. Think he fights on pure experience and legacy he's built. It might just take Brunson to eat a leg kick in exchange for a hard counter punch to floor Silva. Once he hits the deck, the ref will be quick to save Silva from further assault. That's how I see it playing.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Silva's chin was definitely shot after the Weidman KO, and he took some solid ones from Bisping and Cormier manhandled him. Think he fights on pure experience and legacy he's built. It might just take Brunson to eat a leg kick in exchange for a hard counter punch to floor Silva. Once he hits the deck, the ref will be quick to save Silva from further assault. That's how I see it playing.

Not trying to shit on Silva but he's a reflex fighter who never learned orthodox defense and the reflexes aren't there anymore.