JoshKnows Ufc fn 85: Hunt vs Mir

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  • JoshKnows46
    SBR MVP
    • 07-27-12
    • 3691

    #1
    JoshKnows Ufc fn 85: Hunt vs Mir
    Hunt -175/-180 risking $3000
    Magny +110/+115 risking $3000
    Hunt/mir starts round 2 -135 risking $250
    Hunt/mir starts round 3 +183 risking $250
    Hunt/mir starts round 4 +340 risking $100
    Hunt/mir starts round 5 +473 risking $50
    Hunt wins by unanimous dec +2000 risking $50
    Hunt wins by majority/split dec +2950 risking $50
  • agendaman
    SBR MVP
    • 12-01-11
    • 3729

    #2
    lotta broke people now josh
    Comment
    • JoshKnows46
      SBR MVP
      • 07-27-12
      • 3691

      #3
      Originally posted by agendaman
      lotta broke people now josh
      Yup, can't understand why people choose to make their own bets, when I give them the winners for free, some people have to learn the hard way.
      Comment
      • TPowell
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-21-08
        • 18842

        #4
        ehh is this just a fade of Lombard coming off PEDS? I really think the old Lombard would physically overwhelm him, but I'm committed to following you for the most part, at least for the big fights
        Comment
        • All_Or_Nothing
          SBR High Roller
          • 03-03-16
          • 111

          #5
          Originally posted by JoshKnows46
          Hunt -175/-180 risking $3000
          Magny +110/+115 risking $3000
          Hunt/mir starts round 2 -135 risking $250
          Hunt/mir starts round 3 +183 risking $250
          Hunt/mir starts round 4 +340 risking $100
          Hunt/mir starts round 5 +473 risking $50
          Hunt wins by unanimous dec +2000 risking $50
          Hunt wins by majority/split dec +2950 risking $50
          Interesting straight play on Magny Josh. I am curious why you don't play Magny Decision? I believe Magny will be victorious. However, I don't see him knocking Hector out & I certainly don't see him submitted the judoka either. I am also playing the over in case Hector keeps the rounds close.
          Comment
          • JoshKnows46
            SBR MVP
            • 07-27-12
            • 3691

            #6
            Originally posted by All_Or_Nothing
            Interesting straight play on Magny Josh. I am curious why you don't play Magny Decision? I believe Magny will be victorious. However, I don't see him knocking Hector out & I certainly don't see him submitted the judoka either. I am also playing the over in case Hector keeps the rounds close.
            Many people didn't think bisping could drop anderson twice, many people told me nunes and latifi could only win in the distance, point is people mess up perfectly good bets by getting too cute, and anything is possible expecially against a near 40 year old ex juicer, against a guy with a significant height and reach advantage, I know Lombard has never lost inside the distance, but I don't think it's unthinkable to see him subbed by magny, magny showed mark. Improvements in his ground game against Maia just to survive that Long under him, and marked improvements in his wrestling against Kelvin gastlem, he's a well rounded guy, hard worker, always looking better, and a strong desire and will to win. I wouldn't count him out inside the distance, his length, judgement of distance, footwork and cardio is gonna be a problem for most of the division, dec is obviously the most likely path to victory, but props are limited, and you should nearly always have a straight wager of equal or greater value, expecially when you get into betting 5 or more units, or 10 unit plays as I have here.
            Comment
            • JoshKnows46
              SBR MVP
              • 07-27-12
              • 3691

              #7
              My bad Lombard is just turning 38 Feb 2nd, that's still a old age to be coming off the juice and it gonna show in his performances.. losing to Tim boetch and okami and going the distance with shields, and having a tough fight with burkman. A old guy still carry alot of muscle, not being able to train as hard, is gonna have problems with a quicker longer fighter, that is a cardio machine, it's gonna be hard for Lombard to find his range before he starts to gas trying to keep up with magnys pace.
              Comment
              • JoshKnows46
                SBR MVP
                • 07-27-12
                • 3691

                #8
                Added:
                Magny wins in the 3rd +1700 $50 to win $850
                Magny wins by dec +245 $100 to win $245
                Comment
                • JoshKnows46
                  SBR MVP
                  • 07-27-12
                  • 3691

                  #9
                  BTW everyone my unit is 300, for tailing purposes, if your unit is 100, don't be betting props for 100 when I do, a 100 is 1/3rd my unit, so if you want to bet the same way, a 100 dollar prop for me should be 35 for you, a 50 dollar prop should be 15 For you, don't let props cut into your overall profit for a event. If your unit is 100, then bet 1 3rd of what I bet, if your units $50, bet 1 6th of what I bet, On ALL WAGERS. Stay within your units, even with props, they are more volatile then straight wagers. Eventually your units will grow as your bankroll grows, don't go broke betting above your means, if you go broke you gotta start over, and I know no one wants to reload, let the money come, don't be in a hurry to get rich, that will cost u in the long run, steady pace. For every $5,000 you earn, you can increase your unit 50 dollars, no sooner.
                  Comment
                  • JoshKnows46
                    SBR MVP
                    • 07-27-12
                    • 3691

                    #10
                    Click image for larger version

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                    Comment
                    • JoshKnows46
                      SBR MVP
                      • 07-27-12
                      • 3691

                      #11
                      Comment
                      • brainfreeze
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 05-13-14
                        • 5689

                        #12
                        Pressure bust pipes.. His words " He panicked " #Humbled
                        First decent interview of the guy.

                        On other things Mir used to be good, haven't seen him in a while, what does he look like?
                        Comment
                        • JoshKnows46
                          SBR MVP
                          • 07-27-12
                          • 3691

                          #13
                          Originally posted by brainfreeze
                          Pressure bust pipes.. His words " He panicked " #Humbled
                          First decent interview of the guy.

                          On other things Mir used to be good, haven't seen him in a while, what does he look like?
                          most recently he defeated duffee in a fight where he came in uncharacteristically reckless, duffee went to sleep early in the 1st round, and then followed up with a dec lose to the pitbull arlowski, I see hunt keeping this standing, and turning it into a kickboxing match, both guys can take the punishment, i see hunt forcing the action for the majority of the fight as mir will be aware of his power and he will eventualy finishing mir 3rd round or later as mir gets more aggressive being down 2 rounds, if it goes to dec, mark should get the dec as he's the better kick boxer, and he has the wrestling to keep this on the feet, he could also get a little extra home cooking from 1 or 2 judges if it turns out close rounds, as the fans in Australia will be fully behind their country man, and will overreact to everything landed by mark.
                          Comment
                          • JoshKnows46
                            SBR MVP
                            • 07-27-12
                            • 3691

                            #14
                            This quoto below, tells me mir wants to play the matador to marks bull, he plans on fighting conservative, and trying to get the fight to the ground, which i believe he will be unsuccessful at doing, this is one of the reasons i love the over plays in this contest...

                            “I don’t think there’s any secrets in this fight. Obviously he wants to try and knock me out and I’m looking to get the submission.



                            “But I think the interesting part is how we’re both going to try to accomplish our goals.

                            “People I think are foreseeing a lot of fireworks but I think they forget that both of us are such savvy veterans that there’s going to be a lot of cat and mouse going on too.”
                            Comment
                            • JoshKnows46
                              SBR MVP
                              • 07-27-12
                              • 3691

                              #15
                              in marks mma career he has fought 4 times in Australia, he's only lose was to stipe in a fight he lasted till the mid 5th round, his two longest fights in his career, one going to 5 round dec, and the other him losing in the 5th to stipe have been in australia. This is his third fight in a row in australia, and this is Frank's first time in his career making the trip there to fight.
                              Comment
                              • JoshKnows46
                                SBR MVP
                                • 07-27-12
                                • 3691

                                #16
                                mir has 2 wins his last 7 fights, and that was against a soft chinned duffee in a fight he could have easily been ko'd himself, and a washed up ex juicer in antonio silva who basically needs the juice to survive....hunt has lost to the top of the top recently in stipe, werdum, and dos santos, but he was manhandling werdum and on his way to winning the interm title up to the point in the second where werdum caught him with a beautiful knee, he even dropped werdum a couple times, he did well defending the takedown, also spent a minute in werdums guard and did well defending the sub. he took damage and got man handled in the stipe fight, but almost went the distance, and had a slug fest with dos santos that went till just 42 minutes left in the fight before dos santos hit a wheel kick, mir would have been on a 6 fight losing streak if he lost to duffee, and would have likely retired or got cut, imo mir is lucky to still have a job, while hunt is fighting at home, and still has plenty of gas left in the tank. I'm usually not comfortable betting heavyweight fights, but with hunts chin, wrestling and kickboxing advantage, i feel comfortable making this a big 10 unit play.
                                Comment
                                • CaptChaos145
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 04-03-14
                                  • 588

                                  #17
                                  Lombard has some of the best wrestling in the game. No one did to Jake Shields what Hector did to him. Hector threw Jake around like a rag doll. Yes Magny will keep his distance but Hector has never been stopped in 38 pro fights. It's not likely to happen against a guy that doesn't really have KO power. Plus Magny's last 2 wins could have gone either way. Magny cannot take Hector down on his best day.

                                  Lombard's losses were at MW and his dec win against Shields was solid considering Shields has only been subbed once (recently) and stopped by strikes twice in 40 pro fights. If you beat Jake you're gonna win by decision.

                                  I think this line should be -150 for Lombard and a +150 for Magny all day.

                                  I'm 1 of the few that bet on Maia when he fought Magny. Imo that was a no brainer and the fight played out as I expected.

                                  Magny is a tad overrated.
                                  Comment
                                  • JoshKnows46
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 07-27-12
                                    • 3691

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by CaptChaos145
                                    Lombard has some of the best wrestling in the game. No one did to Jake Shields what Hector did to him. Hector threw Jake around like a rag doll. Yes Magny will keep his distance but Hector has never been stopped in 38 pro fights. It's not likely to happen against a guy that doesn't really have KO power. Plus Magny's last 2 wins could have gone either way. Magny cannot take Hector down on his best day.

                                    Lombard's losses were at MW and his dec win against Shields was solid considering Shields has only been subbed once (recently) and stopped by strikes twice in 40 pro fights. If you beat Jake you're gonna win by decision.

                                    I think this line should be -150 for Lombard and a +150 for Magny all day.

                                    I'm 1 of the few that bet on Maia when he fought Magny. Imo that was a no brainer and the fight played out as I expected.

                                    Magny is a tad overrated.
                                    Kelvin is a better wrestler then lombard, and magny out wrestled him, lombard will be gassed early second round, magny will take him down if he chooses to. Muscle mass, less energy off the juice at a old age, less training equals less cardio, plus fighting a guy that keeps a fast pace, magny will own him, this is easy money man. Even lombard of 3 years ago, on the juice, would loss to the magny of today, reassess ur bet.
                                    Comment
                                    • mirinquads
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 04-22-13
                                      • 3927

                                      #19
                                      Lombard has better takedown defense than Kelvin.

                                      No promise that Lombard is off the juice either.
                                      Comment
                                      • jordanft19
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 09-12-15
                                        • 673

                                        #20
                                        Love the Magny play, good luck bro!
                                        Comment
                                        • JoshKnows46
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 07-27-12
                                          • 3691

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by mirinquads
                                          Lombard has better takedown defense than Kelvin.

                                          No promise that Lombard is off the juice either.
                                          The 3rd round bet is assuming he is, would be stupid if he'd risk still being on, next suspension is 3 years and at his age, his career would be over, have to assume he wouldnt want to risk 3 years of pay. It's still a horrible matchup for him either way.
                                          Comment
                                          • brainfreeze
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 05-13-14
                                            • 5689

                                            #22
                                            Thanks for the info, so Mir only won 2 of his last 7? ..
                                            Comment
                                            • CaptChaos145
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 04-03-14
                                              • 588

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by JoshKnows46
                                              The 3rd round bet is assuming he is, would be stupid if he'd risk still being on, next suspension is 3 years and at his age, his career would be over, have to assume he wouldnt want to risk 3 years of pay. It's still a horrible matchup for him either way.
                                              Josh for some reason you seem to be really big on Magny. I think you overrate him. His last 2 wins weer splits.

                                              Go back and look at your posts about Magny when he fought Maia. Then look at mine.

                                              Who has taken Lombard down to make you think Magny can? In 6 UFC fights Lombard has only been taken down by Okami.

                                              jake Shields takes almost everyone down and he couldn't even come close to taking hecto down. Instead Lombard tossed Jake around.
                                              Comment
                                              • CaptChaos145
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 04-03-14
                                                • 588

                                                #24
                                                Also keep in mind Hector is 34-4 and his last 2 losses were splits at MW. And he has never been finished. Magny finishes less than 25% with strikes and it is highly unlikely he subs Hector.
                                                Comment
                                                • JIBBBY
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 12-10-09
                                                  • 83686

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by JoshKnows46
                                                  McGregor is cerebral I'll give him that much.. Seems humbled and I like to see that..

                                                  He needs to go back down in weight and stay there as his power did not carry up to 170 and he even knows that now. Then again the Diaz bro's do have granite chins...
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JoshKnows46
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 07-27-12
                                                    • 3691

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by CaptChaos145
                                                    Josh for some reason you seem to be really big on Magny. I think you overrate him. His last 2 wins weer splits.

                                                    Go back and look at your posts about Magny when he fought Maia. Then look at mine.

                                                    Who has taken Lombard down to make you think Magny can? In 6 UFC fights Lombard has only been taken down by Okami.

                                                    jake Shields takes almost everyone down and he couldn't even come close to taking hecto down. Instead Lombard tossed Jake around.
                                                    I'll go into explain why lombard is the wrong side, once I'm finished capping the entire event, looks like you might be stuck on that side, so if your gonna bet lombard, you might as well wait to hear more from me and get the best line, the line will improve closer to fight time, don't be in a rush to bet it. For now, go watch those splits, and tell me if they are truly splits, you will find that was just one stupid judge, both those dec were clearly unanimous for magny. I don't undervalue or over value anyone, I bet based on line value and matchups... I don't care if I have to bet the most overvalued guy against the most underrated if that matchup suits the overrated guy and I see value in the line. I let the books serve first, you and them both have lombard overvalued, a guy that lost to boetch, okami, got tagged multiple times by burkman who doesn't have near the footwork, reach, volume, smarts of magney, who gassed in the shields fight because he went outside his comfort zone of tenitive head hunting striker, and decided to grapple which was taxing on his body.. I'm not the one over valuing someone here, reassess your bet...also do your own homework, i shouldnt have to go into each matchup that brought me to this conclusion, watch fights were lombard fought guys of similar build as magny, this should answer all your question, the tape never lies.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • bjpenn85
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 02-17-11
                                                      • 5059

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by JoshKnows46
                                                      Hunt -175/-180 risking $3000
                                                      Magny +110/+115 risking $3000
                                                      Hunt/mir starts round 2 -135 risking $250
                                                      Hunt/mir starts round 3 +183 risking $250
                                                      Hunt/mir starts round 4 +340 risking $100
                                                      Hunt/mir starts round 5 +473 risking $50
                                                      Hunt wins by unanimous dec +2000 risking $50
                                                      Hunt wins by majority/split dec +2950 risking $50
                                                      There is several things i like with this play. Frank mir doesnt have takedowns so i dont know what in the world that can make him takedown Mark hunt. Also, Mark hun has still a granite chin, which doesnt make sense in terms of how long hes been fighting and his current age. Only punches really stunned him is a spinning wheel house kick from dos santos and a jumping knee from werdum. Apart from that punches doesnt really hurt Hunt. The accumulation of many punches will like in the miocic will or as in other K1 competitions. Mir doesnt have the boxing or the takedowns prowess of Miocic. But obviously, none of the things mentioned above matter if hunt loses balance, or getting reversed, because Mirs submissions are good enough to submit anyone, pretty fast.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • bjpenn85
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 02-17-11
                                                        • 5059

                                                        #28
                                                        Mark Hunt play, that is
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JoshKnows46
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 07-27-12
                                                          • 3691

                                                          #29
                                                          Added:
                                                          Parlay
                                                          Antonio Carlos jr. -550
                                                          Not mir in round 1 -900
                                                          Magny/lombard start round 2 -367
                                                          Risking $900 to win $603.84

                                                          Johnny Case -115 risking $600
                                                          Comment
                                                          • CaptChaos145
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 04-03-14
                                                            • 588

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by JoshKnows46
                                                            I'll go into explain why lombard is the wrong side, once I'm finished capping the entire event, looks like you might be stuck on that side, so if your gonna bet lombard, you might as well wait to hear more from me and get the best line, the line will improve closer to fight time, don't be in a rush to bet it. For now, go watch those splits, and tell me if they are truly splits, you will find that was just one stupid judge, both those dec were clearly unanimous for magny. I don't undervalue or over value anyone, I bet based on line value and matchups... I don't care if I have to bet the most overvalued guy against the most underrated if that matchup suits the overrated guy and I see value in the line. I let the books serve first, you and them both have lombard overvalued, a guy that lost to boetch, okami, got tagged multiple times by burkman who doesn't have near the footwork, reach, volume, smarts of magney, who gassed in the shields fight because he went outside his comfort zone of tenitive head hunting striker, and decided to grapple which was taxing on his body.. I'm not the one over valuing someone here, reassess your bet...also do your own homework, i shouldnt have to go into each matchup that brought me to this conclusion, watch fights were lombard fought guys of similar build as magny, this should answer all your question, the tape never lies.
                                                            I think you explained enough about why you like Magny and it feels like Maia/Magny all over again. You had the same logic in that fight.

                                                            We are all entitled to our opinions but I'm very surprised you feel the way you do about this one.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JoshKnows46
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 07-27-12
                                                              • 3691

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by CaptChaos145
                                                              I think you explained enough about why you like Magny and it feels like Maia/Magny all over again. You had the same logic in that fight.

                                                              We are all entitled to our opinions but I'm very surprised you feel the way you do about this one.
                                                              That's Magny's only loss in his last 10 fights, lombard isn't near the man beast Maia is,and lombard doesn't use his grappling much since coming into the ufc, and isn't likely to use it in front of his home crowd, he'd rather wade forward flat footed and look for the hail Mary punch, not only will that punch never come against someone with that reach, height, smarts, and excellent footwork, it will be hard for him to land a finger on magny. He's dependant on his roids and power, very low skilled standup, decreased cardio, and magny showed mark improvements in the gastlem fight defending the takedown and getting his own, winning clearly, not a split as you made it seem. So the question becomes, first will lombard use his grappling, second how affective will it be against magny, third will he not gas as he did against shields, if he chooses to use his grappling as he did against sheilds, how will he look off tge roids, as u ask yourself those questions you should see magny as a much higher favorite. It's more likely magny hands him his first lost inside the distance, then it is lombard wins this matchup. A old guy lacking skill, must now depend more on skill without his roids, 30 percent chance he gets finished late, 60 percent chance he loses a dec, 10 percent chance he wins a dec.....we are all in titled to I own opinion, it's just my opinion is right 90 percent of the time, I have a huge edge on anyone else in this game, even thinking about betting against my edge is a mistake 100 percent of the time.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • All_Or_Nothing
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 03-03-16
                                                                • 111

                                                                #32
                                                                [QUOTE=JoshKnows46;25409169]That's Magny's only loss in his last 10 fights, lombard isn't near the man beast Maia is,and lombard doesn't use his grappling much since coming into the ufc, and isn't likely to use it in front of his home crowd, he'd rather wade forward flat footed and look for the hail Mary punch, not only will that punch never come against someone with that reach, height, smarts, and excellent footwork, it will be hard for him to land a finger on magny. He's dependant on his roids and power, very low skilled standup, decreased cardio, and magny showed mark improvements in the gastlem fight defending the takedown and getting his own, winning clearly, not a split as you made it seem. So the question becomes, first will lombard use his grappling, second how affective will it be against magny, third will he not gas as he did against shields, if he chooses to use his grappling as he did against sheilds, how will he look off tge roids, as u ask yourself those questions you should see magny as a much higher favorite. It's more likely magny hands him his first lost inside the distance, then it is lombard wins this matchup. A old guy lacking skill, must now depend more on skill without his roids, 30 percent chance he gets finished late, 60 percent chance he loses a dec, 10 percent chance he wins a dec.....we are all in titled to I own opinion, it's just my opinion is right 90 percent of the time, I have a huge edge on anyone else in this game, even thinking about betting against my edge is a mistake 100 percent of the time.

                                                                This would also be a great fight to live bet. Lombard may win the first round via takedown & hold Magny down. Hopefully the odds improve on Magny then. Magny simply has more cardio. He has a lot more cardio. I can not emphasize this enough. Rounds 2 & 3 will go to Magny. I'm also betting Magny wins via decision. Although a 3rd round stoppage could happen. However, I find a decision victory far more likely.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JoshKnows46
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 07-27-12
                                                                  • 3691

                                                                  #33
                                                                  To add lombard is coming off over a year layoff, against a fighter 10 years younger, against a fighter that recently fought just 4 months ago, in a 5 ROUND FIGHT, And out wrestled a better wrestler than lombard is...you are completly lost with this matchup, and you will lose. You bet against me, you lose, it's that simple.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • All_Or_Nothing
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 03-03-16
                                                                    • 111

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by CaptChaos145
                                                                    I think you explained enough about why you like Magny and it feels like Maia/Magny all over again. You had the same logic in that fight.

                                                                    We are all entitled to our opinions but I'm very surprised you feel the way you do about this one.
                                                                    A good compromise would be the over 2.5 play. I doubt either man gets finished.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • All_Or_Nothing
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 03-03-16
                                                                      • 111

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by mirinquads
                                                                      Lombard has better takedown defense than Kelvin.

                                                                      No promise that Lombard is off the juice either.
                                                                      While it is true that Lombard has better takedown defense than Kelvin. I believe kelvin's takedowns are better. Lombard was able to look impressive vs Shields because Shields was closing the distance for Hector & trying to take Hector down. Big mistake! Hector was able to easily use judo trips & toss Jake to the ground like a child. I don't think Neil will even try to take Hector down until Hector is tired. As far as PED's go. Hector would be absolutely insane to risk getting caught again. At his advanced age a 2 or 3 year penalty would effectively end his career.
                                                                      Comment
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