UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz (January 17, 2016)

[JIBBBY]

Cruickshank has been knocked down and out plenty of times, both on TUF and earlier in his career. Chin is very shaky.

I agree Miri, Daron Cruickshank has a suspect chin and can certainly get dropped by the tough hard nosed bully in Paul Felder..

Felder by KO prop will be my main play on this fight because I don't have faith in Crapshanks chin....

1733 Felder wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_143" size="4"> +170

May at some point hedge with this just incase...

1707 Cruickshank wins by 3 round decision

<input id="editx" name="M1_130" size="4"> +410

[TPowell]

Last fight I plan on looking at today. Ilir Latifi has been very impressive so far with only the TKO loss to Jan standing out. He fought Mousasi to a decision on less than 2 weeks notice and has 2 first round TKO's and a 1st round sub win. The more I look at it, the more impressed I am with Hans Stringer who he finished last fight by TKO. That was a solid win for him. Latifi is a massive guy who is so heavy on the ground and a solid wrestler, but also has hands of stone. I think Latifi will be able to lay back and counter punch like he always wants to do in this fight because Sean O'Connell just constantly tries to pressure guys, even if he takes a few shots doing so. Once again, O'Connell has a lot of power as well. He dropped Gian in their fight that went to a decision and has 2 TKO wins lately, even though poor Anthony Perosh has no business fighting anymore. I think this fight ends within the distance. Both guys are solid on the ground, but I would favor Latifi there. I don't really have a clear picture on this fight, but my gut says Latifi catches him coming in with a straight right hand and drops him.

[JIBBBY]

Last fight I plan on looking at today. Ilir Latifi has been very impressive so far with only the TKO loss to Jan standing out. He fought Mousasi to a decision on less than 2 weeks notice and has 2 first round TKO's and a 1st round sub win. The more I look at it, the more impressed I am with Hans Stringer who he finished last fight by TKO. That was a solid win for him. Latifi is a massive guy who is so heavy on the ground and a solid wrestler, but also has hands of stone. I think Latifi will be able to lay back and counter punch like he always wants to do in this fight because Sean O'Connell just constantly tries to pressure guys, even if he takes a few shots doing so. Once again, O'Connell has a lot of power as well. He dropped Gian in their fight that went to a decision and has 2 TKO wins lately, even though poor Anthony Perosh has no business fighting anymore. I think this fight ends within the distance. Both guys are solid on the ground, but I would favor Latifi there. I don't really have a clear picture on this fight, but my gut says Latifi catches him coming in with a straight right hand and drops him.

Probably Latifi by KO also if I had to guess.. Not very good odds on this prop though unfortunately

2033 Latifi wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_200" name="radiox" type="radio">-105

[TPowell]

Wow Sanders comes out at barely plus money. Lot of respect

[yisman]

Abdul-Kerin Edilov (knee) has withdrawn from the UFC fight vs Francimar Barroso. The replacement has yet to been named.

[TPowell]

Watched some tape on Rosa and Hettes. Rosa looks very awkward and not very good in his standup. Obviously he's solid on the ground and very dangerous with all of his sub wins, but Jimy Hettes is just as dangerous on the ground. Both guys are basically just sub artists at this point. Rosa has a few knockouts before the UFC in weak promotions and Hettes has a decision win over Nam Phan who is long gone from the UFC after a terrible stint. I can't see any value in this fight. Hettes is probably the better striker on the feet, but I can't see that leading to a finish so we are back to where we started, which is on the ground. If you buy both of these guys submission defense, I would think you'd have to hit the over 2.5 rounds maybe

[JoshKnows46]

Bunch of scrubs and flaky fuks on this card, not much value at all, leaning to the underdogs based on the unreliability of both sides in many fights, lines are moving the way I want them to, gonna be waiting till after weighins on the rest of the fights, possibly 2 more plays...seems like a card you can make money betting every underdog, I'm not gonna do that however, but fighters on this card on both sides are flaky enough that it could turn a nice profit. Still gonna be selective. only clear dominate favorite that's worth laying his current price is dillashaw. I see some okay favorites, that could win, but none worth laying the price tag.

[JIBBBY]

Bunch of scrubs and flaky fuks on this card, not much value at all, leaning to the underdogs based on the unreliability of both sides in many fights, lines are moving the way I want them to, gonna be waiting till after weighins on the rest of the fights, possibly 2 more plays...seems like a card you can make money betting every underdog, I'm not gonna do that however, but fighters on this card on both sides are flaky enough that it could turn a nice profit. Still gonna be selective. only clear dominate favorite that's worth laying his current price is dillashaw. I see some okay favorites, that could win, but none worth laying the price tag.

Could use the near double up dog theory if you really believe that Josh..

Example - Bet the first dog on the card for a $100, lose, nearly double up on the next dog for $150, lose again, then nearly double up again for $200 on the next dog and win.. Etc...

After you hit the first dog you start over and do it again til the card ends.. 2 or 3 good valued dogs hit out of 10 fights on the card and you get paid..

Risky but it could pay off... There is typically dogs that always hit at some point on an entire UFC card.... I can't remember a card where every single favorite hit anyways..

[bjpenn85]

Could use the near double up dog theory if you really believe that Josh..

Example - Bet the first dog on the card for a $100, lose, nearly double up on the next dog for $150, lose again, then nearly double up again for $200 on the next dog and win.. Etc...

After you hit the first dog you start over and do it again til the card ends.. 2 or 3 good valued dogs hit out of 10 fights on the card and you get paid..

Risky but it could pay off... There is typically dogs that always hit at some point on an entire UFC card.... I can't remember a card where every single favorite hit anyways..

Its a very funny idea. It should work.

[Sanity Check]

Could use the near double up dog theory if you really believe that Josh..

Example - Bet the first dog on the card for a $100, lose, nearly double up on the next dog for $150, lose again, then nearly double up again for $200 on the next dog and win.. Etc...

After you hit the first dog you start over and do it again til the card ends.. 2 or 3 good valued dogs hit out of 10 fights on the card and you get paid..

Risky but it could pay off... There is typically dogs that always hit at some point on an entire UFC card.... I can't remember a card where every single favorite hit anyways..

I think I've heard of this, before. Martingale?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

Never seen or heard of anyone using it seriously, though.

[bjpenn85]

It obviously requires one to have infinite funds. On a card that can easily have an underdog come through in the 8th og 9th fight, it can prove to be very costly before the very small gain, which means its a waste of money more or less when you can spend your money on winning on fighters that you are confident going to win. But, it would work i think in theory. I have almost never ever seen a ufc card when an underdog havent come through. I have several times seen events where 7-8 or more underdogs have won. Usually the commentators call it "a night of upsets"

[Deceptakhan]

Fibonacci sequence would be better then a martingale sequence, and betting to win "said unit" would limit your risk
https://www.mathsisfun.com/numbers/fibonacci-sequence.html

[JIBBBY]

Its a very funny idea. It should work.

I've never tried it, but in theory it should work and be profitable especially for the UFC cards where most favorites are heavily favored.. Dogs usually hit every 2 or 3 fights.. Sometimes they hit one after the other too..

[JoshKnows46]

Could use the near double up dog theory if you really believe that Josh..

Example - Bet the first dog on the card for a $100, lose, nearly double up on the next dog for $150, lose again, then nearly double up again for $200 on the next dog and win.. Etc...

After you hit the first dog you start over and do it again til the card ends.. 2 or 3 good valued dogs hit out of 10 fights on the card and you get paid..

Risky but it could pay off... There is typically dogs that always hit at some point on an entire UFC card.... I can't remember a card where every single favorite hit anyways..

This would be the card to do this, could easily see every single underdog winning beside dillashaw. 3 of my 4 bets that I will be placing will be on underdogs.

[TPowell]

This would be the card to do this, could easily see every single underdog winning beside dillashaw. 3 of my 4 bets that I will be placing will be on underdogs.

curious about your thoughts on some of these fights. I have Latifi and Felder in a parlay right now and may take Mairbek inside the distance at plus money. The dogs on this card are grinding type fighters. If dogs win, it should be decisions all over the place

[yisman]

M. Taisumov (V I S A issues) has been scratched from UFC Fight Night 81 vs. Chris Wade. Taisumov is replaced by Mehdi Baghdad.

[TPowell]

M. Taisumov (V I S A issues) has been scratched from UFC Fight Night 81 vs. Chris Wade. Taisumov is replaced by Mehdi Baghdad.

he did finish inside the distance then

[JIBBBY]

M. Taisumov (V I S A issues) has been scratched from UFC Fight Night 81 vs. Chris Wade. Taisumov is replaced by Mehdi Baghdad.

Damn!!

Cancelled

1/17/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1502 Mairbek Taisumov -270* <small>vs</small> Chris Wade

[TPowell]

Appears Felder had an awful weight cut in his last fight and Cruickshank isn't doing any interviews right now which is a little weird. Liking Felder in my parlay even more

[JIBBBY]

Appears Felder had an awful weight cut in his last fight and Cruickshank isn't doing any interviews right now which is a little weird. Liking Felder in my parlay even more

With ya Tpow..

$105.50

$179.40

Pending

1/17/16 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1733 Felder wins by TKO/KO +170* <small>vs</small> Any other result

[yisman]

J. Hettes (undisclosed) is OUT of UFC Fight Night 81. Replacement is yet to be announced.

[TPowell]

This kind of sucks. I was excited to see Mairbek fight for sure

[JoshKnows46]

Guys dropping like Flys on this card, hoping cruz makes it to the octagon without injury. TPowell I'll tell you who I'm on after weigh ins, want the best value, I wouldn't have laid the odds on either of those fights.only favorite worth laying at current price is dillashaw, he will be one of my biggest plays in a long time. I'll be on the opp of one of those 2 big favorites that are in your parlay.

[PaperTrail07]

Get outta here....lol.....everyone silently uses the double down theory LOL...

I think I've heard of this, before. Martingale?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

Never seen or heard of anyone using it seriously, though.

[PaperTrail07]

Simply not enough value for me.....Cruik footwork too good to BANK on a TKO at less than 2:1...shit Id almost bet 2:1 an eyepoke ends it befoer that lol...

With ya Tpow..

$105.50

$179.40

Pending

1/17/16 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1733 Felder wins by TKO/KO +170* <SMALL>vs</SMALL> Any other result

[JIBBBY]

Simply not enough value for me.....Cruik footwork too good to BANK on a TKO at less than 2:1...shit Id almost bet 2:1 an eyepoke ends it befoer that lol...

Felder is aggressive and always comes forward looking to knock your head off. I'm thinking the pressure eventually gets to Crapshank late.. I could be wrong though.. It might go to decision..

I just think Felder is overdue for a KO win, and Cruickshank has looked less then good in recent fight losses to both James Krause and Daruish... He really got steam rolled in both... Not sure he can turn it around against the hard nosed brawler in Felder.. Both need a win badly as well.. I'm thinking the fight ends before the final bell this go around...

[TPowell]

This is a make or break fight for Felder for sure. I think he'll be gunning for the finish. If he can keep it standing, he should be able to get it IMO

[UncleChael]

KILLASHAW is going to whoop his ass. You'll better get on it now. Save your money, Cruz has fought once in 4.5 years lol

[Shagdogy]

I'm on Dillashaw. I don't see how you can place a bet on Cruz here. He's had 3 ACL surgeries, a torn groin, and it's been over FOUR YEARS since his last competitive fight, since the Mizugaki fight didn't really show us anything substantial. You have to bet Dillashaw or no bet in this fight IMO. Can't imagine betting Cruz under these circumstances.

[JIBBBY]

D Cruz already showed he can fight at an extremely high level after long layoffs.. He's been training his ass off leading up to this fight.. It shows in his interviews as well.. He's confident, he only has one loss in his entire MMA career and that was a sub loss choke out 10 years ago against Faber.. Former UFC champion is D Cruz and still in his prime at age 30... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dominick-Cruz-12107

It would be foolish to bet against him.. Dillashaw has been stopped a few times, changed camps recently because of problems and greed, has never looked more beatable then now.. Shaky in interviews..

D Cruz has too much foot work and is basically unhitable.. Dillashaw will get frustrated, press and then get caught. TJ doesn't have a granite chin either.. I'm banking on the KNOCK OUT myself...

Hit this a week ago and the odds have dropped since..

$50.00

$262.50

Pending

1/17/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1037 Cruz wins by TKO/KO +525* <small>vs</small> Any other result

[Pinocchio]

He's confident, he only has one loss in his entire MMA career and that was a suspect decision call 10 years ago against Faber..

Someone hasn't done their homework...

[JIBBBY]

Someone hasn't done their homework...

Submission choke win for Faber.. My bad... Not by decision... Got me there...

My memory gets foggy at times after almost 10 years please forgive. I should have double checked before posting... WEC days were a while back..

Thanks for the correction..

[Shagdogy]

D Cruz already showed he can fight at an extremely high level after long layoffs.. He's been training his ass off leading up to this fight.. It shows in his interviews as well.. He's confident, he only has one loss in his entire MMA career and that was a suspect decision call 10 years ago against Faber.. Former UFC champion is D Cruz and still in his prime at age 30... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dominick-Cruz-12107

It would be foolish to bet against him.. Dillashaw has been stopped a few times, changed camps recently because of problems and greed, has never looked more beatable then now.. Shaky in interviews..

D Cruz has too much foot work and is basically unhitable.. Dillashaw will get frustrated, press and then get caught. TJ doesn't have a granite chin either.. I'm banking on the KNOCK OUT myself...

I get not being confident in Dillashaw, but how can you possibly be so confident in a guy with only one minute of fighting in over four years? That fight barely demonstrated his movement, and didn't show his cardio at all. These are both things that could be drastically effected by the long layoff, adrenaline dump of returning and going straight to title fight, and yet ANOTHER knee surgery. I can't fathom some of the confidence I'm reading in Cruz. way too many unknowns. You have no real clue what you're betting on with Cruz.

[JIBBBY]

I get not being confident in Dillashaw, but how can you possibly be so confident in a guy with only one minute of fighting in over four years? That fight barely demonstrated his movement, and didn't show his cardio at all. These are both things that could be drastically effected by the long layoff, adrenaline dump of returning and going straight to title fight, and yet ANOTHER knee surgery. I can't fathom some of the confidence I'm reading in Cruz. way too many unknowns. You have no real clue what you're betting on with Cruz.

Betting on the former UFC champ that never lost his championship belt and is very hungry to get it back.. You can see that in his interviews.. Guys on a mission to prove he still is the champ..

Betting on a Cruz because he's only lost 1 fight in 21 pro bouts.. He's never been KO'd either

I'm betting on a guy that moves and boxes better then TJ standing...

I'm betting against TJ Dill because he got dropped by Jon Dodson whom beat him in the striking department.. That is also D Cruz's strength...

I'm betting on D Cruz because he is also a +125 dog currently going in...

<small>UFC Fight Night 81 - Bantamweight 5 rounds - TD Garden - Boston, Massachusetts - FS1</small>
Sun 1/17		1001 Dominick Cruz		<input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4"> +125	<input id="editx" name="L1_0" size="4"> o4½ -185
11:30PM		1002 T.J. Dillashaw		<input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4"> -145	<input id="editx" name="L2_0" size="4"> u4½ +160

Etc.. Etc..


Good luck to you guys betting on Killashaw.. It's a fight and certainly TJ has a chance but my money will be on D Cruz the true UFC champion that has never been defeated in the UFC.

[JIBBBY]

Can on can violence has got me thinking????

<small>UFC Fight Night 81 - Middleweight 3 rounds - TD Garden - Boston, Massachusetts - FS1</small>
Sun 1/17		1801 Ed Herman		<input id="radiox" value="M1_7" name="radiox" type="radio">+190	<input id="radiox" value="L1_7" name="radiox" type="radio">o2½ -115
8:00PM		1802 Tim Boetsch		<input id="radiox" value="M2_7" name="radiox" type="radio">-230	<input id="radiox" value="L2_7" name="radiox" type="radio">u2½ -105

I remember Ed Herman always coming into fights in shape, he's a tough guy that always brings it.. He's very hard to knock out as well.. Derrick Brunson dropped him in his last fight but Brunson is Jackson/Wink trained brute of a fighter.. Derrick Brunson just dropped Sam Alvey which is hard to do so I give that loss a pass for Short Fuse Herman.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ed-Herman-6561

Now you gotta think does Tim Boetsch really have enough to beat short fuse? Maybe, but I don't think so.. He's lost 5 of his last 7 fights and got dropped in a couple of them.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tim-Boetsch-19544

Final thoughts on both cans, it should be a slug fest but Ed Short Fuse might be the tougher guy and might edge out Tim in the cardio department as well.. I certainly don't think this fight goes the distance for starters..

Anyways at +190 I'm giving short fuse Ed Herman a legit shot in this match up.. In on the can Short Fuse for the straight win...

$180.00

$342.00

Pending

1/17/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1801 Ed Herman +190* <small>vs</small> Tim Boetsch

Will hedge a bit though with the Barbarian by KO for insurance.. Tim ain't gonna sub out Ed or beat him by decision one would think

$100.00

$225.00

Pending

1/17/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1833 Boetsch wins by TKO/KO +225* <small>vs</small> Any other result

Are we learning how to effectively hedge bet for profit yet people?