UFC on FOX 12: Lawler vs. Brown (July 26, 2014)

[mmaed]

^^Nog in 4 years really hasn't faced anyone that strikes as hard and looks to bang like Rumble Johnson does.. Rashad Evans (whom hasn't looked good in recent years) is a counter puncher first and dances around looking to stick and move.. Rumble looks to take one to give one these days and moves forward, he simply doesn't play games and has the granite chin to back it up...

In 4 years Nog really just faced pure wrestlers with no pop in their punches - Phil Davis, Bader, Tito Ortis simply are not good strikers... Rashad what ever....

Rumble Johnson (in his prime) is a different beast Nog will be facing... At 38 one only has to assume Nog is slowing and declining in skills to go along with perhaps a chin that can't take the big shots anymore.. Much like what has happened recently with his twin brother in Big Nog........

Fair points. One thing that concerns me is AJ shooting in on Nog. Nog is some decent jiu jitsu and he loves to drop for the guillotine on double legs.

[marzwoody]

he had his chance against the big boys in ufc and failed. means is a tough fighter

[marzwoody]

Fair points. One thing that concerns me is AJ shooting in on Nog. Nog is some decent jiu jitsu and he loves to drop for the guillotine on double legs.

Why would he drop when he could beat him to a pulp? seems like a pretty dumb gameplan to me if he goes for the takedown. what some people dont understand is its not beating phil davis that was impressive. it was the way he fought, looked amazing even his gas tank looked great. he was the underdog and everyone was on davis when i brought up the possibility of rumble even beating him.

[mmaed]

^ this. he had his chance against the big boys in ufc and failed. means is a skilled fighter

Maybe I am wrong but I remember Perpeteo rallying against Mein and taking the last round convincingly.

[JIBBBY]

bla bla bla, old, bla bla anthony johnson is in his prime, this is why people get burned. Focus on reality. The reality is, he outstruck a very sad and depressed rashad,but he won. Be prepared at least for a 3 round fight that may look competitive and not the typical 1.round KO that we bettors have a lame habit of predicting. He is not worth a chicken shit at these odds IMO (i had to put him in a small parlay, but you catch my drift)

Maybe, we will see???..... None of us have crystal balls and this is MMA where anything can happen... Just remember 11 of 17 Rumble Johnson victories have all come by way of KO though...

Moving on from the Rumble/Nog fight.. Thompson fight I'm on now. Re-watching his recent fights... Greens too..

[mmaed]

Can anyone post me a link to hernani perpetuo vs Jordan Mein? I can't find it anywhere. Feel free to PM it to me if posting it is against the rules. Thanks ahead of time.

[bjpenn85]

I think thompson should be ranked nr 2 in the world, so..he should beat king. I really like king though, but i think thompson in a tiny parlay seems fair. Again, not a lot, cause green has very good takedown defence and the ground may be where thompson has the biggest edge. Thompson has muuuuuch better standup than healy, which means that green may have problems see thompsons shots. Thompsons clinch abilities is also quite good, however I was really surprised though how often green countered healy at the cage. He looks like a skinny crack/cocain addict but MAAAAAAAAN does that ***** pack some power!!

[bjpenn85]

Ni gg a

[bjpenn85]

Lol, fooled that idiot data-system of SBR

[mmaed]

I think thompson should be ranked nr 2 in the world, so..he should beat king. I really like king though, but i think thompson in a tiny parlay seems fair. Again, not a lot, cause green has very good takedown defence and the ground may be where thompson has the biggest edge. Thompson has muuuuuch better standup than healy, which means that green may have problems see thompsons shots. Thompsons clinch abilities is also quite good, however I was really surprised though how often green countered healy at the cage. He looks like a skinny crack/cocain addict but MAAAAAAAAN does that ***** pack some power!!

This is pretty much exactly what I was thinking.

The reason I like Hernani to beat Tim Means is because I think he is the better striker (Brazilian kickboxing champion) and Means isn't the best wrestler. I also think Means is having a tougher time at 170 now that he doesn't command a huge reach advantage over his opponents. I still need to watch some tape but I am liking Hernani and maybe Hernani by decision. I wouldn't be surprised to see both at + odds.

[bjpenn85]

I dont care about merits, he was manhandled by jordan mein, and jordan mein isnt really good. So that puts him almost or at least way dont the rankings, probably in tim means ally - even fight - dont care. Check your inbox btw

[mmaed]

I dont care about merits, he was manhandled by jordan mein, and jordan mein isnt really good. So that puts him almost or at least way dont the rankings, probably in tim means ally - even fight - dont care. Check your inbox btw

I think Mein is pretty decent and how much do rankings really mean? It's all about the stylistic matchup. Means is primarily a stand up fighter that rarely(as far as I know) uses offensive wrestling and Perpetuo is a Brazil and Pan am kickboxing champion multiple times over. Thanks for the PM. I'll keep looking into this one. I am hoping to get Perpetuo as a dog. We'll see.

[bjpenn85]

its about matchup off course but do you know how good this perpetuo is? means wins and loose in the ufc but has some skills, so its diffuclt to match them up that what i mean by rankings in this context. Its risky to put to much into merits if they havent really translated into wins in the ufc.

[mmaed]

its about matchup off course but do you know how good this perpetuo is? means wins and loose in the ufc but has some skills, so its diffuclt to match them up that what i mean by rankings in this context. Its risky to put to much into merits if they havent really translated into wins in the ufc.

I'm still trying to find tape on him. There is older tape I should watch but I'd like to see him up against a known commodity. Also BTW, Perpetuo took the fight against Jordan Mein on short notice.

[Skel]

This is pretty much exactly what I was thinking.

The reason I like Hernani to beat Tim Means is because I think he is the better striker (Brazilian kickboxing champion) and Means isn't the best wrestler. I also think Means is having a tougher time at 170 now that he doesn't command a huge reach advantage over his opponents. I still need to watch some tape but I am liking Hernani and maybe Hernani by decision. I wouldn't be surprised to see both at + odds.

I'm not all that high on Perpetuo's striking. Tape of his previous fights is extremely easy to find, by the way.

[Skel]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/0mptHMU2S7c" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[MD]

Remember that time Bobby Green said that he wasn't a dirty fighter?

http://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/6/StrikeforceM1-Fedor-vs-Henderson-Preview-34220

Lol. Docked two points against Dan Lauzon in the first round.

[mmaed]

fast forward to the 28 minute mark to see Clay Guida. Fantastic.

[mirinquads]

I don't know why you're so confident in Anthony Johnson ITD. Nog has better hands than Anthony, and has very good defense for an MMA fighter. Nog has been stopped once in the biggest upset in MMA history. You're all assuming his chin and abilities has deteriorated, but where's the proof? He looked good on the feet against a flat Rashad and Lil Noggy has actually taken the prober time to rehab his injuries (he catches a lot of flak for this) and doesn't look like he's held together by tape and paperclips like his big bro, who basically fights with an injury every fight. Johnson didn't come close to stop Davis, who has way stiffer standup than Nog. I predict an ugly fight where Johnson struggles to hit Nog with anything significant and tries to wall clinch and struggle for the takedown. Nog isn't an easy fight, and seem to have improved his takedown defense as well.
I took the Over at -140 with a smile.

[Bumdeal]

I dont care about merits, he was manhandled by jordan mein, and jordan mein isnt really good. So that puts him almost or at least way dont the rankings, probably in tim means ally - even fight - dont care. Check your inbox btw

what makes you say that ? I completely disagree

[mmaed]

I don't know why you're so confident in Anthony Johnson ITD. Nog has better hands than Anthony, and has very good defense for an MMA fighter. Nog has been stopped once in the biggest upset in MMA history. You're all assuming his chin and abilities has deteriorated, but where's the proof? He looked good on the feet against a flat Rashad and Lil Noggy has actually taken the prober time to rehab his injuries (he catches a lot of flak for this) and doesn't look like he's held together by tape and paperclips like his big bro, who basically fights with an injury every fight. Johnson didn't come close to stop Davis, who has way stiffer standup than Nog. I predict an ugly fight where Johnson struggles to hit Nog with anything significant and tries to wall clinch and struggle for the takedown. Nog isn't an easy fight, and seem to have improved his takedown defense as well.
I took the Over at -140 with a smile.

Thats a smart play i may just have to tail.

[JIBBBY]

I think thompson should be ranked nr 2 in the world

Reallly? Sure about that bjpenn?

Thompson has lost 3 of his last 5 fights... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Josh-Thomson-2394... I don't think he can beat 2 of those 3 guys he lost too already either if they were to fight again.....let alone beat the rest of the top 5 guys in the division..

Thompson is good though but not #2 good.. Not saying he won't beat Green either whom is quietly on a 7 fight win streak himself but all those wins were not against top guys.

[MD]

Reallly? Sure about that bjpenn?

Thompson has lost 3 of his last 5 fights... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Josh-Thomson-2394... I don't think he can beat 2 of those 3 guys he lost too already either if they were to fight again.....let alone beat the rest of the top 5 guys in the division..

Thompson is good though but not #2 good.. Not saying he won't beat Green either whom is quietly on a 7 fight win streak himself but all those wins were not against top guys.

Is there more of a c-nt move than quoting someone's statement, editing out their explanation, and then bringing up points that they already explained in the parts of their post that you edited out? Seriously.

[JIBBBY]

I don't know why you're so confident in Anthony Johnson ITD. Nog has better hands than Anthony, and has very good defense for an MMA fighter. Nog has been stopped once in the biggest upset in MMA history. You're all assuming his chin and abilities has deteriorated, but where's the proof?

Better hands not sure about this either? Perhaps though if it were a boxing match with the big gloves on.... Power is still a big equalizer which Rumble has to go along with his youth and strong chin..... He doesn't have to worry as much about being taken down in this fight like he did in the Phil Davis fight either.. He can look up and throw kicks in this match up.

Like Dana White always says this is a young mans sport and at age 38 Little Nog isn't getting any faster or quicker with his BETTER HANDS... Flip side - Rumble seems to improving with his hands and kicks with every fight.. Rumble is way more athletic and explosive then the MORE EXPERIENCED and aging Nog....

After watching the vid - all I witnessed is that Rumble is hungry, dialed in, and all about fighting in his life right now which I already knew.. Little Nog has a hot wife and a cute little girl, he's in love, playing on the beach in Brazil, smiling and happy................and about to get dropped like a bad habit if you ask me..

Twin brother Big Nog has the same genetic materials and make up and he's done.. (there's your proof) Just saying...

The Nog brothers could be the missing links though... LOL

[JIBBBY]

Is there more of a c-nt move than quoting someone's statement, editing out their explanation, and then bringing up points that they already explained in the parts of their post that you edited out? Seriously.

Wasn't what I was trying to do, was just trying to state the obvious... Relax Irish..

[bjpenn85]

hehe, sure, he lost 3 out of 5. yep, thats a fair statement.

[Tommy Blingshyne]

lost 3 of his last 5 but 2 of those should have been wins...hes def capable of beating the top 3 guys in the world

[Bumdeal]

hehe, sure, he lost 3 out of 5. yep, thats a fair statement.

yea lol. way to omit just a few details there jib.

2 split decisions against the top fighters in the division. he's lost 3 out of 5 what a schlub.

[Bumdeal]

what am i missing. i now have about 10 parlays, including tennis, closing with lawler. and many closing with johnson and lawler.

this is the most confident i've felt in a ufc bet in years, and yet it holds at -350. i am missing something and am in store for an epic let down here.

[Bumdeal]

will probably hedge with brown on fight night just because this is classic set up for a huge loss for me.

[MD]

what am i missing. i now have about 10 parlays, including tennis, closing with lawler. and many closing with johnson and lawler.

this is the most confident i've felt in a ufc bet in years, and yet it holds at -350. i am missing something and am in store for an epic let down here.

Eh, just roll with it. If you're confident for the right reasons, then you need to trust yourself. I've been on the other side of some guys that I respect heavily; the reality is that high-level 'cappers can look at the same matchup and draw completely different conclusions.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Have got Lawler closing a few parleez including a 40:1... I too feel seemingly too comfortable with the play.

[JIBBBY]

^^^I don't have the nads or confidence to go parlay crazy with Lawler like some of you guys are proclaiming to do.. Brave lads ya all are!!!. Best of luck as always....

My thoughts - Gotta consider that Matt Brown is a tough out period, Lawler could actually get bullied a bit in this one.. Still like Lawler but it's probably gonna end up being a stand up slug fest in which Matt Brown is pretty good at. We've seen Robbie Lawler get dropped in the past with strikes.. It's been a while though...

This might be a Prop/Under bet only fight for me - "not going the distance".. I'd rather blast the parlays with Rumble personally myself and not Lawler if I do......

[MarkWoodstick]

Keep in mind that linesmarkers open lines not based on what they think the probabilities that each fighter will win are, but based on how they think betters will perceive those probabilites to be. According to the current line on 5dimes, Johnson is given an 80 percent chance of victory, which is ridiculous to me. I dont know how any bettor believes Johnson would win this fight more than 80 percent of the time if it was simulated 100 times.

I believe the line is so steep because linesmakers know that the hype on Johnson is as high as it's ever been, and they are forced to make the line for Johnson so steep in order to get even action.

Basically, i think the line is representative less on the actual probabilities of each fighter winning and more on the skewed public perception of this fight.

With that being said, if Johnson goes in there and absolutely runs over Nog, you must give the Johnson backers credit. I just dont see this matchup as lob sided s this line suggests

[MD]

Keep in mind that linesmarkers open lines not based on what they think the probabilities that each fighter will win are, but based on how they think betters will perceive those probabilites to be. According to the current line on 5dimes, Johnson is given an 80 percent chance of victory, which is ridiculous to me. I dont know how any bettor believes Johnson would win this fight more than 80 percent of the time if it was simulated 100 times.

I believe the line is so steep because linesmakers know that the hype on Johnson is as high as it's ever been, and they are forced to make the line for Johnson so steep in order to get even action.

Basically, i think the line is representative less on the actual probabilities of each fighter winning and more on the skewed public perception of this fight.

With that being said, if Johnson goes in there and absolutely runs over Nog, you must give the Johnson backers credit. I just dont see this matchup as lob sided s this line suggests

Obviously, Phil Davis beat Nog, and Rumble beat Davis, and Davis beat Gustafsson, and Gustafsson beat Hamill, and Hamill beat Tito, and Tito beat Bader, and Bader beat Nog, and Nog beat Mir, and Mir beat Lesnar, and Lesnar beat Couture, and Couture beat Belfort, and Belfort beat Rumble.

What is so hard to understand about that?