Mlb 2012

[BiffTFinancial]

Tuesday 5.8.2012 updated card
2* Orioles ML (+117) - LOSER
2* Tribe TT over 4 (-115) - LOSER
2* Parlay: Marlins ML + Dodgers ML (+144) - LOSER
2* Reds ML (+123) - LOSER
2* Rockies ML (-116) - LOSER

0-5 -10.62u

bona fide fkn tragedy. well, the hot streak is officially over.

season to date: 96-74-4 +43.61u

[pacocn]

Biff, rough day, but you have a helluva season going.
Keep up the good work

[NYyanks14]

hey biff rough day yesterday, the great thing is that there's early baseball to get back on the horse!... was thinking of taking the brewers early since they are 18-0 in games that greinke starts at miller park, but on the other side cueto has been pitching great. would appriciate some help haha

[spladle08]

ouch... lets get it back today, BOL

[nosaij]

damn tough day Biff.

Its a marathorn. lets grind it back

[BiffTFinancial]

thanks for the well wishes, fellas. just one of those days, and followed two downs days. the operative word is grind, time to focus on that. i have every intention of getting my paper back from Tony at 5D, but it won't happen in one day.

still can't believe that we beat the closers by so much in O's and Reds and never had a chance in either game. never saw that coming.

[BiffTFinancial]

hey biff rough day yesterday, the great thing is that there's early baseball to get back on the horse!... was thinking of taking the brewers early since they are 18-0 in games that greinke starts at miller park, but on the other side cueto has been pitching great. would appriciate some help haha

i would probably lean Brewers but more to the under there. however, i also note that both teams are playing a lot of their normal starters (including Braun, who was rumored to be out early this morning) and the roof likely will be open, so i'll probably pass on the under. Cueto is pitching great, but his advanced stats would seem to indicate that a regression is coming (while Greinke's stats are more the reverse). BOL to you whatever you decide.

[BigBoi]

Bravos

[BiffTFinancial]

Bravos

i lean Braves and under. wish i'd played under before they announced that McCann was out, that immediately added 10c to the line. Hudson good history vs Cubs (though not many of these guys were part of that history). Maholm has been really solid his last three starts, though the Cubs bullpen can always obliterate whatever good he does in an inning or two.

[a4u2fear]

Like I said Bif, I've been sucking, since I started tailing, so have you, I'll stop

[RoadDog]

i lean Braves and under. wish i'd played under before they announced that McCann was out, that immediately added 10c to the line. Hudson good history vs Cubs (though not many of these guys were part of that history). Maholm has been really solid his last three starts, though the Cubs bullpen can always obliterate whatever good he does in an inning or two.

Cubs FF. But then again, I'm running as bad as you this week. Who knows anymore lol.

[BiffTFinancial]

Like I said Bif, I've been sucking, since I started tailing, so have you, I'll stop

do as you wish, man. my failures are my own and i'm not superstitious enough to think that they have anything to do with who tails me. that said, it ate me up all last night that there were people tailing me while i went 0-5.

[CappinTerp]

Biff no problem it's early May we have a long way to go..................................gl

[BiffTFinancial]

Cubs FF. But then again, I'm running as bad as you this week. Who knows anymore lol.

i'm thinking FF under, but i'm more thinking pass. Hudson and Maholm have both had some rough starts to games this season.

thinking that i'll probably do a day-night parlay with Jays this afternoon, have to decide on late game with which to pair them.

will almost definitely be on CWS/Tribe under. lean Tribe, but like the under better. also like a couple of ump-based overs (TEX/BAL, LAA/MIN).

[RoadDog]

You read my mind. Wanted the Blue Jays all morning now its looking like they're going to have to be parlayed.

[BiffTFinancial]

You read my mind. Wanted the Blue Jays all morning now its looking like they're going to have to be parlayed.

problem is, not a lot of great options. Phils are obvious choice, but that's juiced to death and it's Lee's first start off DL. no way am i touching Marlins with Josh Johnson on the mound (ditto for Angels with Santana). Red Sox, Tigers and Dodgers seem like probably best options, need to look at it further.

[RoadDog]

Blue Jays + Red Sox (+171) looks solid.

Bruce Chen with an impressive 22.50 era against Boston last season.

[BiffTFinancial]

Blue Jays + Red Sox (+171) looks solid.

Bruce Chen with an impressive 22.50 era against Boston last season.

yep. also KC batting .222 vs lefties and Lester's numbers vs players on their roster (in limited action - 70 ABs): .214/.329/.329/.658.

liking this more and more, esp since i'm not to keen on playing Dodgers (Lincecum really hard to cap right now).

[RoadDog]

Yea, I'm gonna see how the Cubs FF starts then I'm gonna lock that parlay in.

[BiffTFinancial]

Wednesday 5.9.2012
2* Parlay: Blue Jays ML + Red Sox ML (+187)

day-night parlay

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* White Sox/Tribe FF under 3' (-105)

like full-game under, but like this better

Wednesday 5.9.2012 updated card
2* Parlay: Blue Jays ML + Red Sox ML (+187)
2* White Sox/Tribe FF under 3' (-105)

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Rangers/Orioles over 9 (+102)

Wednesday 5.9.2012 updated card
2* Parlay: Blue Jays ML + Red Sox ML (+187)
2* White Sox/Tribe FF under 3' (-105)
2* Rangers/Orioles over 9 (+102)

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Rays ML (+128).

Wednesday 5.9.2012 updated card
2* Parlay: Blue Jays ML + Red Sox ML (+187)
2* White Sox/Tribe FF under 3' (-105)
2* Rangers/Orioles over 9 (+102)
2* Rays ML (+128)

BOL to all tonight.

[HOT WINGS]

GL Biff on the Rays with ya. Also took the Tribe, hope they come through tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

GL Biff on the Rays with ya. Also took the Tribe, hope they come through tonight.

thanks, Hot Wings, BOL to you too. like the Tribe, just like the under a little better. certainly hope that you hit. bit of a rain delay right now but i don't think it's supposed to last long.

[a4u2fear]

GL biff, i layed off tonight, if superstitions are correct, you'll be a winner.

[fitguy67]

hey biff, got a basic baseball-metric q...is there anywhere to find each team's "slugging average"...i think it'd be as good a one-single-summary-stat as any for how good a team is offensively...if a team were higher in the slugging percentage rankings than they were in run-production u gotta know that the "timing" of their hitting just isn't "clicking" and they've been stranding lotsa guys...but with a high SP regression's gotta set in and the run production is likely to go up/men stranded go down...and vice-versa

is "team slugging percentage" and rankings based on it kept anywhere handy?

[BiffTFinancial]

Wednesday 5.9.2012 final card
2* Parlay: Blue Jays ML + Red Sox ML (+187) - LOSER
2* White Sox/Tribe FF under 3' (-105) - LOSER
2* Rangers/Orioles over 9 (+102) - POSTPONED
2* Rays ML (+128) - WINNER

1-2 -1.54u

stupid 3-run error by Marlon Byrd

97-76-4 +42.07u season to date

[Redscot]

hey biff, got a basic baseball-metric q...is there anywhere to find each team's "slugging average"...i think it'd be as good a one-single-summary-stat as any for how good a team is offensively...if a team were higher in the slugging percentage rankings than they were in run-production u gotta know that the "timing" of their hitting just isn't "clicking" and they've been stranding lotsa guys...but with a high SP regression's gotta set in and the run production is likely to go up/men stranded go down...and vice-versa

is "team slugging percentage" and rankings based on it kept anywhere handy?

This stat at Fangraphs does a pretty good job of evaluating individual and team offensive performance.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/wrc/

Here are the teams, which you can further break down to against left hand pitcher, at home, last 14 days etc.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=&ind=0&team=0,ts&players=0

GL today Biff Tee!

[spladle08]

look forward to your plays today, bad week is about to turn around... 5-0 I feel it

[fitguy67]

This stat at Fangraphs does a pretty good job of evaluating individual and team offensive performance.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/wrc/

Here are the teams, which you can further break down to against left hand pitcher, at home, last 14 days etc.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=&ind=0&team=0,ts&players=0

GL today Biff Tee!

Thanks Red...seems like OPS, wOBA(if available), or OPS+(if available) are even better candidates for the single best "at a glance" summary-statistics for a team's offensive prowess.

That Fangraphs site is amazing...so far here's what my quest for a single summary stat for each of the major aspects of the game has come up with.

Pitching: SIERA
Offense: OPS+ (if available), wOBA (if available), otherwise OPS
Defense: either UZR or DRS

if you, Biff, RD, any thread regulars have any comments on my short list...in particular which is "better" (gun to the head, if u could only keep one) of OPS+ vs. wOBA......UZR vs. DRS

__________________

hmmmm...think I'll start a new thread in PlayersTalk section for this, to not "red herring" this one

[Redscot]

Thanks Red...seems like OPS, wOBA(if available), or OPS+(if available) are even better candidates for the single best "at a glance" summary-statistics for a team's offensive prowess.

That Fangraphs site is amazing...so far here's what my quest for a single summary stat for each of the major aspects of the game has come up with.

Pitching: SIERA
Offense: OPS+ (if available), wOBA (if available), otherwise OPS
Defense: either UZR or DRS

if you, Biff, RD, any thread regulars have any comments on my short list...in particular which is "better" (gun to the head, if u could only keep one) of OPS+ vs. wOBA......UZR vs. DRS

__________________

hmmmm...think I'll start a new thread in PlayersTalk section for this, to not "red herring" this one

Sorry Biff Tee for the hijack here. Fitguy: SIERA for me is best for pitching with xfip 2nd.
Offense: from FanGraphs.
● If you’re thinking about using OPS+, use wRC+ instead. wRC+ is based off of wOBA and is regarded as a more accurate depiction of a player’s or team's offensive value.

I give the defensive metrics a glance, but honestly I think they are less accurate than the pitching and offensive evaluators. The defensive metrics will be the next break through IMO for "advanced stats" guys.

[BiffTFinancial]

Sorry Biff Tee for the hijack here. Fitguy: SIERA for me is best for pitching with xfip 2nd.
Offense: from FanGraphs.
● If you’re thinking about using OPS+, use wRC+ instead. wRC+ is based off of wOBA and is regarded as a more accurate depiction of a player’s or team's offensive value.

I give the defensive metrics a glance, but honestly I think they are less accurate than the pitching and offensive evaluators. The defensive metrics will be the next break through IMO for "advanced stats" guys.

no worries, redscot, feel free. i have a lot to learn so i appreciate the discussion.

have a few leans tonight but not sure whether or not i'll play them:
TOR/MIN under 8' (waiting for ump)
Nats -1
Tribe
Rays (also liked under but not after move from 7' to 8)

[BiffTFinancial]

Thursday 5.10.2012
2* Nationals -1 (-125)

[hydrosmak]

B. Welke in Minnesota