Sometimes I even find myself putting bets in at Legends when I could get a better price at 5dimes. I do this because Legends always pays out. Sometimes 5dimes will give you the run-around.
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looks like DeMuth will be behind the plate in Cincy, so that's one over ump out there that can't fk up our unders. still looking for whereabouts for G Davis (over lean but has leaned under in last 18 games), Barry (over) and Timmons (under).
apparently, Booger Lee will be back in the lineup for the Astros.Comment -
I love this thread, but have a bad feeling about tonight. You being on fire lately + a huge card tonight + mystery dinner = a baaadd feeling!
Bol!Comment -
thanks for the props on the thread, i appreciate that.
i don't disagree. i've been half-expecting a soul-crushing night for a few days now. i do not like the line movement on our unders, that's for sure (esp Dbacks/Nats - now fully expecting us to get Dale Scott behind the plate there). all i can say is, i capped these games with the same model and principles that i've used for every other day this season (including the horrific 5-17 start to April). here's hoping that my judgment was sound and the numbers reliable (i.e., we avoid too much variance tonight).
no real mystery to the dinner. just a work dinner where it would be powerfully stupid and unprofessional and obvious for me to constantly check scores.Comment -
haha, i hear you, RD. would be easier if there were going to be more than a handful of people. that's okay, though, i had meetings all afternoon each of the last two Thursdays and had to endure radio silence on checking scores, and both afternoons went really well. let's hope that continues.Comment -
Tim Timmons behind the plate at beauuutiful US Cellulah Field, the beautiful ballpark in the beautiful cityyyyy. solid news for our under there.Comment -
Nelson behind the plate in DC, Estabrook in Atlanta. i can live with both of those.Comment -
when u have time, watch this video if u haven't already...
in it, Dr. Bob parrots your attitude, saying that he caps the same day in day out...that "hot" and "cold" have everything to do with the natural ebb and flow of positive and negative variance and nothing to do with how well he's "reading" the games...
I liken this to putting on lots of bets on black cards being peeled off a constantly-reshuffled deck at book-odds say +103 based on your "research" (basic knowledge in this case that the true odds should be +100)...the blacks (and reds) naturally go on runs that have nothing to do with the soundness of that analysis that concludes that each and every one of those black+103 bets is +eV...Comment -
3* Phillies/Braves under 6' - WINNER
aw yeah, just got home in time to flip on mlb.tv and watch Paps bring in his nail gun to close the door in the 9th.Comment -
thanks for posting that. very interesting. it's weird, i think that bases is different than hoops or football, and that the approach you describe is better for bases. in hoops, i definitely feel as if there are times when i'm "seeing games" better than others (same in football but to lesser extent). in bases, i just use a set of ginned-up xFIP formulae and picking and choosing plays based upon the difference between model's projection and the posted line and right now the cards are hot.when u have time, watch this video if u haven't already...
in it, Dr. Bob parrots your attitude, saying that he caps the same day in day out...that "hot" and "cold" have everything to do with the natural ebb and flow of positive and negative variance and nothing to do with how well he's "reading" the games...
I liken this to putting on lots of bets on black cards being peeled off a constantly-reshuffled deck at book-odds say +103 based on your "research" (basic knowledge in this case that the true odds should be +100)...the blacks (and reds) naturally go on runs that have nothing to do with the soundness of that analysis that concludes that each and every one of those black+103 bets is +eV...Comment -
oh, Tribe. what the fk are you doing?Comment -
That indians game is ridiculous.Comment -
Awful awful night for me. Indians are gross. Ubaldo is on my shit list.Comment -
except it isnt ubaldo. they can't field a routine grounder, catch a routine pop up. embarrassing.Comment -
Even with all the defensive mistake, Ubaldo is terrible. He cant locate anything. He's a shell of his once formidable self.Comment -
better hope for some serious pop up storms in chicago now.Comment -
RoadDog, time for your best rain dance.
and although Ubaldo is crap, the fumbling of the ball in the field is inexcusable.Comment -
Tuesday 5.1.2012 updated card
3* Phillies/Braves under 6' (-110) - WINNER
2* Diamondbacks/Nationals under 6'(-103) - WINNER
2* Rangers/Blue Jays over 9 (+111) - WINNER
2* Mariners/Rays under 8 (-120) - WINNER
2* Mets/Astros under 8 (-105) - LOSER
1* Tribe/White Sox under 7 (+105) - LOSER
1* Parlay: Dodgers ML + Giants ML (+228) - LOSER
4-3 +5.12u
4-0 start fizzled but at least the losses were on the smaller picks.
81-56-4 +54.98u season to dateComment -
you're always up more units than me on your picks (obv because I just do 2u on each) I'm going to start just matching your card identically I think.... NBA was my fail yesterday, side note, did you see the Thunder @ +3350 to sweep? Probably a bad odd... but I threw 134 on it wish me luck!!!!! Look forward to your picks again today! Thanks for posting my friend, and congrats on the success.Comment -
Wednesday 5.2.2012
2* Phillies/Braves under 6 (-108)Comment -
i do recommend playing same units as me. all of my plays are based upon numbers, so the weighting reflects my confidence based upon what i believe to be our advantage according to the numbers.
did not see the OKC to sweep prop, but i hope that you cash, pal. that would be a sweet hit.Comment -
adding
2* Tigers RL (-122)
2* Diamondbacks/Nationals under 7 (-123)
Wednesday 5.2.2012 updated card
2* Tigers RL (-122)
2* Diamondbacks/Nationals under 7 (-123)
2* Phillies/Braves under 6 (-108)Comment -
also liking Astros and Dodgers in the other afternoon games, trying to decide what i want to do with them.Comment -
adding
2* Astros ML (-136)
Wednesday 5.2.2012 updated card
2* Tigers RL (-122)
2* Astros ML (-136)
2* Diamondbacks/Nationals under 7 (-123)
2* Phillies/Braves under 6 (-108)
Considering 1u on the Astros RL +165, gonna think about it for a bit. also thinking maybe a day-night parlay with Dodgers. BOL to all today.Comment -
Biff, keep it rolling
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Dodgers + Tigers + Yanks parlay? Can't see any losingComment -
Dodgers+ Angels Parlay
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Too much juice on under AZ/WSH for me. at -135 and climbing. Figure itll drop to 6'? Under Seattle/TB looks tasty again. Without Longoria, TB will win, but that takes a lot of their pop and the fact that big game James is on the hill helps.Comment
