Value Plays Mlb 2012

[pacocn]

Updated record 132-149 Up 2.43 units,
lets keep it rollin.

[pacocn]

7/7 Toronto +125 bol everyone

[pacocn]

This will conclude today's card
bol everyone.

[2daBank]

i played Jays-1.5 +175...just doesnt feel like a gm decided by 1 run...gl pacman

[fitguy67]

pac...just ran up the first-ever "SOE" (SIERA over ERA...easy to remember how to interpret it by thinking...if it's Over 100...it Says "Over-Estimated")...

I ended up just going with a simple ratio with the decimals jumped two places to put it's neutral value (where numerator SIERA=denominator ERA) at 100... this index itself is centred at 105 (cuz mlb-starter mean SIERA is a bit higher than mean ERA) and has a StdDev of 25...

Just did for 2012 so far, but could whip up for previous years and longer time frames fairly easily...but wanna get feedback on this first.

Here's a tast of the five most over-rated (by ERA) guys
*Vogelsong, SFO 4.4/2.26=>194.7
*Jered Weaver, LAA 3.9/2.13=>183.1
*C.J. Wilson, LAA 4.28/2.43=>2.84
*Johnny cueto, CIN 3.75/2.35=>159.6
*Kyle Lohse, STL 4.3/2.8=>153.6

and the five most under-rated-by-ERA
*Max Scherzer, DET 3.08/4.98=>61.8
*Jake Arrieta, BAL 3.85/6.13=>62.8
*Tim Lincecum, SFO 4.01/6.08=>66.0
*Joe Blanton, PHI 3.45/4.79=> 72.0
*Adam Wainwright, STL 3.29/4.56=>72.1

the other 89 starters (when i downloaded the starter pitcher data from fangraphs I got just 99 records...seems a bit small for the thirty-ish teams involved...but i double checked) obviously fit somewhere in between these extremes...if tracked weekly you'd expect some movement into and out of the "top" and "bottom" lists...

getting a few names in our background RAM thusly may help trigger our "spidey sense" occasionally and get us to pull the trigger on something we were'n't otherwise interested in or even give us reason to back off something that did look good at first

________
pm me instructions on how to zap the excel sheet to you and you can take care of getting it "out there" (I am absolutely useless when it comes to "sharing" stuff over the web, have no idea how to set up a "google.doc" for example...and I couldn't see anywhere in sbr's pm facility any "attachment" function)...a simple email address would be best for me

[pacocn]

Fit, Very nice work, i pmd you my info. We can definitely use this info. to generate
value and winners.

[pacocn]

7/7 Results 0-1 down 1 unit.

[pacocn]

Overall record 132-150 Up 1.43 units.

[pacocn]

Orioles +115

[pacocn]

Adding Giants/Pirates Under 8 (-103 5 dimes)

[cboogie]

under in whitesox
o's
dodgers

[pacocn]

under in whitesox
o's
dodgers

looks good to the eyeball still in the middle of capping, had
a late night last night

[pacocn]

Never possessed one, but I'm playing one, grand salami, under 137, under before all star break, you know the rules

[pacocn]

I added up all the o/u's and got 131, we are getting some value on this salami

[cboogie]

thoughts on over in the tex game? looking at the later games and this is what looked best to me.

[pacocn]

c boogie, didn't get to that one, heading to beach with family, my card
is final, bol everyone

[pacocn]

This may be my first and last grand salami, everyones
putting up runs. Stros score 3 in the 1st off of the ace
Grienke.

[pacocn]

You know you are Fd when you are relying on Bad Penny to salvage
your under

[fitguy67]

zapped the sheet to ur e-add, bro...

2012 record only, up to Friday's games,the 99 starters listed by "fangraphs"

Here they are from ORP (Over-Rated Position)#1 to #99...highest SIERA/ERA to lowest

"ORP"=Over-Rated Position

Name	Team	SIERA	ERA	SOE	ORP
Ryan Vogelsong	Giants	4.4	2.26	194.7	1
Jered Weaver	Angels	3.9	2.13	183.1	2
C.J. Wilson	Angels	4.28	2.43	176.1	3
Johnny Cueto	Reds	3.75	2.35	159.6	4
Kyle Lohse	Cardinals	4.3	2.8	153.6	5
James McDonald	Pirates	3.76	2.45	153.5	6
Chris Sale	White Sox	3.23	2.21	146.2	7
Chris Capuano	Dodgers	3.8	2.62	145.0	8
Jeremy Hellickson	Rays	4.9	3.41	143.7	9
Jordan Zimmermann	Nationals	3.79	2.7	140.4	10
Barry Zito	Giants	5.41	4.01	134.9	11
Matt Harrison	Rangers	4.1	3.1	132.3	12
Aaron Harang	Dodgers	4.61	3.51	131.3	13
Mark Buehrle	Marlins	4.23	3.25	130.2	14
Edinson Volquez	Padres	4.56	3.52	129.5	15
Justin Verlander	Tigers	3.26	2.58	126.4	16
Jake Peavy	White Sox	3.57	2.85	125.3	17
Matt Cain	Giants	3.26	2.62	124.4	18
Wade Miley	Diamondbacks	3.76	3.03	124.1	19
David Price	Rays	3.4	2.82	120.6	20
Tommy Milone	Athletics	4.27	3.57	119.6	21
R.A. Dickey	Mets	2.86	2.4	119.2	22
Wei-Yin Chen	Orioles	4.33	3.64	119.0	23
Kevin Millwood	Mariners	4.33	3.69	117.3	24
Carlos Zambrano	Marlins	4.79	4.14	115.7	25
Kevin Correia	Pirates	5	4.34	115.2	26
Johan Santana	Mets	3.73	3.24	115.1	27
Ubaldo Jimenez	Indians	5.28	4.59	115.0	28
Hiroki Kuroda	Yankees	4.01	3.5	114.6	29
Wandy Rodriguez	Astros	4.04	3.54	114.1	30
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	3.32	2.91	114.1	31
Clayton Richard	Padres	4.13	3.64	113.5	32
Trevor Cahill	Diamondbacks	4.06	3.63	111.8	33
Edwin Jackson	Nationals	4.15	3.73	111.3	34
Tommy Hanson	Braves	4.11	3.7	111.1	35
Bronson Arroyo	Reds	4.11	3.73	110.2	36
Tim Hudson	Braves	3.92	3.56	110.1	37
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	3.28	3.01	109.0	38
Jonathon Niese	Mets	3.62	3.35	108.1	39
Yovani Gallardo	Brewers	4.01	3.74	107.2	40
Bartolo Colon	Athletics	4.26	4.05	105.2	41
Madison Bumgarner	Giants	3.42	3.27	104.6	42
Yu Darvish	Rangers	3.75	3.59	104.5	43
Homer Bailey	Reds	4.37	4.24	103.1	44
Lance Lynn	Cardinals	3.49	3.41	102.3	45
Henderson Alvarez	Blue Jays	4.42	4.36	101.4	46
Cole Hamels	Phillies	3.24	3.2	101.3	47
Jake Westbrook	Cardinals	3.79	3.75	101.1	48
Jason Vargas	Mariners	4.33	4.31	100.5	49
Jason Hammel	Orioles	3.44	3.43	100.3	50
Ricky Nolasco	Marlins	4.36	4.35	100.2	51
Matt Moore	Rays	4.15	4.17	99.5	52
Derek Lowe	Indians	4.37	4.43	98.6	53
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	3.2	3.26	98.2	54
A.J. Burnett	Pirates	3.65	3.74	97.6	55
Colby Lewis	Rangers	3.42	3.51	97.4	56
Randall Delgado	Braves	4.4	4.52	97.3	57
CC Sabathia	Yankees	3.33	3.45	96.5	58
Mike Leake	Reds	3.85	4.01	96.0	59
Zack Greinke	Brewers	2.95	3.08	95.8	60
Josh Johnson	Marlins	3.86	4.06	95.1	61
Ivan Nova	Yankees	3.8	4.05	93.8	62
Rick Porcello	Tigers	4.13	4.47	92.4	63
Paul Maholm	Cubs	4.26	4.62	92.2	64
Josh Beckett	Red Sox	4.08	4.43	92.1	65
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	2.59	2.82	91.8	66
Justin Masterson	Indians	4.03	4.4	91.6	67
Lucas Harrell	Astros	4.15	4.56	91.0	68
Erik Bedard	Pirates	4.27	4.8	89.0	69
Brian Matusz	Orioles	4.82	5.42	88.9	70
Chad Billingsley	Dodgers	3.72	4.2	88.6	71
Mat Latos	Reds	3.63	4.13	87.9	72
Ricky Romero	Blue Jays	4.69	5.35	87.7	73
Bruce Chen	Royals	4.23	4.83	87.6	74
Ian Kennedy	Diamondbacks	3.73	4.26	87.6	75
Anibal Sanchez	Marlins	3.65	4.19	87.1	76
Phil Hughes	Yankees	3.7	4.29	86.2	77
Jon Lester	Red Sox	3.7	4.33	85.5	78
Matt Garza	Cubs	3.68	4.32	85.2	79
Hector Noesi	Mariners	4.9	5.77	84.9	80
Felix Doubront	Red Sox	3.75	4.42	84.8	81
James Shields	Rays	3.44	4.11	83.7	82
Clay Buchholz	Red Sox	4.59	5.53	83.0	83
Luke Hochevar	Royals	4.21	5.14	81.9	84
Dillon Gee	Mets	3.49	4.34	80.4	85
Dan Haren	Angels	3.89	4.86	80.0	86
Randy Wolf	Brewers	4.65	5.83	79.8	87
Bud Norris	Astros	3.75	4.71	79.6	88
Ervin Santana	Angels	4.54	5.75	79.0	89
Cliff Lee	Phillies	3.09	3.98	77.6	90
Gavin Floyd	White Sox	3.77	4.91	76.8	91
J.A. Happ	Astros	3.91	5.14	76.1	92
Jeff Samardzija	Cubs	3.58	4.77	75.1	93
Mike Minor	Braves	4.46	5.97	74.7	94
Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	3.29	4.56	72.1	95
Joe Blanton	Phillies	3.45	4.79	72.0	96
Tim Lincecum	Giants	4.01	6.08	66.0	97
Jake Arrieta	Orioles	3.85	6.13	62.8	98
Max Scherzer	Tigers	3.08	4.98	61.8	99

[fitguy67]

Going the other way, in the biblical ("and the last shall be first") order...we have the same list in reverse order, ranked as

"URP" (think Sheriff Wyatt...who won many gunfights due to being under-rated by his square challengers)

Name	Team	SIERA	ERA	SOE	URP
Max Scherzer	Tigers	3.08	4.98	61.8	1
Jake Arrieta	Orioles	3.85	6.13	62.8	2
Tim Lincecum	Giants	4.01	6.08	66.0	3
Joe Blanton	Phillies	3.45	4.79	72.0	4
Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	3.29	4.56	72.1	5
Mike Minor	Braves	4.46	5.97	74.7	6
Jeff Samardzija	Cubs	3.58	4.77	75.1	7
J.A. Happ	Astros	3.91	5.14	76.1	8
Gavin Floyd	White Sox	3.77	4.91	76.8	9
Cliff Lee	Phillies	3.09	3.98	77.6	10
Ervin Santana	Angels	4.54	5.75	79.0	11
Bud Norris	Astros	3.75	4.71	79.6	12
Randy Wolf	Brewers	4.65	5.83	79.8	13
Dan Haren	Angels	3.89	4.86	80.0	14
Dillon Gee	Mets	3.49	4.34	80.4	15
Luke Hochevar	Royals	4.21	5.14	81.9	16
Clay Buchholz	Red Sox	4.59	5.53	83.0	17
James Shields	Rays	3.44	4.11	83.7	18
Felix Doubront	Red Sox	3.75	4.42	84.8	19
Hector Noesi	Mariners	4.9	5.77	84.9	20
Matt Garza	Cubs	3.68	4.32	85.2	21
Jon Lester	Red Sox	3.7	4.33	85.5	22
Phil Hughes	Yankees	3.7	4.29	86.2	23
Anibal Sanchez	Marlins	3.65	4.19	87.1	24
Ian Kennedy	Diamondbacks	3.73	4.26	87.6	25
Bruce Chen	Royals	4.23	4.83	87.6	26
Ricky Romero	Blue Jays	4.69	5.35	87.7	27
Mat Latos	Reds	3.63	4.13	87.9	28
Chad Billingsley	Dodgers	3.72	4.2	88.6	29
Brian Matusz	Orioles	4.82	5.42	88.9	30
Erik Bedard	Pirates	4.27	4.8	89.0	31
Lucas Harrell	Astros	4.15	4.56	91.0	32
Justin Masterson	Indians	4.03	4.4	91.6	33
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	2.59	2.82	91.8	34
Josh Beckett	Red Sox	4.08	4.43	92.1	35
Paul Maholm	Cubs	4.26	4.62	92.2	36
Rick Porcello	Tigers	4.13	4.47	92.4	37
Ivan Nova	Yankees	3.8	4.05	93.8	38
Josh Johnson	Marlins	3.86	4.06	95.1	39
Zack Greinke	Brewers	2.95	3.08	95.8	40
Mike Leake	Reds	3.85	4.01	96.0	41
CC Sabathia	Yankees	3.33	3.45	96.5	42
Randall Delgado	Braves	4.4	4.52	97.3	43
Colby Lewis	Rangers	3.42	3.51	97.4	44
A.J. Burnett	Pirates	3.65	3.74	97.6	45
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	3.2	3.26	98.2	46
Derek Lowe	Indians	4.37	4.43	98.6	47
Matt Moore	Rays	4.15	4.17	99.5	48
Ricky Nolasco	Marlins	4.36	4.35	100.2	49
Jason Hammel	Orioles	3.44	3.43	100.3	50
Jason Vargas	Mariners	4.33	4.31	100.5	51
Jake Westbrook	Cardinals	3.79	3.75	101.1	52
Cole Hamels	Phillies	3.24	3.2	101.3	53
Henderson Alvarez	Blue Jays	4.42	4.36	101.4	54
Lance Lynn	Cardinals	3.49	3.41	102.3	55
Homer Bailey	Reds	4.37	4.24	103.1	56
Yu Darvish	Rangers	3.75	3.59	104.5	57
Madison Bumgarner	Giants	3.42	3.27	104.6	58
Bartolo Colon	Athletics	4.26	4.05	105.2	59
Yovani Gallardo	Brewers	4.01	3.74	107.2	60
Jonathon Niese	Mets	3.62	3.35	108.1	61
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	3.28	3.01	109.0	62
Tim Hudson	Braves	3.92	3.56	110.1	63
Bronson Arroyo	Reds	4.11	3.73	110.2	64
Tommy Hanson	Braves	4.11	3.7	111.1	65
Edwin Jackson	Nationals	4.15	3.73	111.3	66
Trevor Cahill	Diamondbacks	4.06	3.63	111.8	67
Clayton Richard	Padres	4.13	3.64	113.5	68
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	3.32	2.91	114.1	69
Wandy Rodriguez	Astros	4.04	3.54	114.1	70
Hiroki Kuroda	Yankees	4.01	3.5	114.6	71
Ubaldo Jimenez	Indians	5.28	4.59	115.0	72
Johan Santana	Mets	3.73	3.24	115.1	73
Kevin Correia	Pirates	5	4.34	115.2	74
Carlos Zambrano	Marlins	4.79	4.14	115.7	75
Kevin Millwood	Mariners	4.33	3.69	117.3	76
Wei-Yin Chen	Orioles	4.33	3.64	119.0	77
R.A. Dickey	Mets	2.86	2.4	119.2	78
Tommy Milone	Athletics	4.27	3.57	119.6	79
David Price	Rays	3.4	2.82	120.6	80
Wade Miley	Diamondbacks	3.76	3.03	124.1	81
Matt Cain	Giants	3.26	2.62	124.4	82
Jake Peavy	White Sox	3.57	2.85	125.3	83
Justin Verlander	Tigers	3.26	2.58	126.4	84
Edinson Volquez	Padres	4.56	3.52	129.5	85
Mark Buehrle	Marlins	4.23	3.25	130.2	86
Aaron Harang	Dodgers	4.61	3.51	131.3	87
Matt Harrison	Rangers	4.1	3.1	132.3	88
Barry Zito	Giants	5.41	4.01	134.9	89
Jordan Zimmermann	Nationals	3.79	2.7	140.4	90
Jeremy Hellickson	Rays	4.9	3.41	143.7	91
Chris Capuano	Dodgers	3.8	2.62	145.0	92
Chris Sale	White Sox	3.23	2.21	146.2	93
James McDonald	Pirates	3.76	2.45	153.5	94
Kyle Lohse	Cardinals	4.3	2.8	153.6	95
Johnny Cueto	Reds	3.75	2.35	159.6	96
C.J. Wilson	Angels	4.28	2.43	176.1	97
Jered Weaver	Angels	3.9	2.13	183.1	98
Ryan Vogelsong	Giants	4.4	2.26	194.7	99

_____________________

I think the most value will appear in games involving the top 20 names on each of these two lists...

the more "public" the game=
+ the more broadly the game is being televised
+ the more important the game is from a "sports page" perspective
+ the more well-known generally (in non-mlb circles) is the pitcher's name

= the more "white-bread" weekend-bettors likely to have never even heard of SIERA are betting
=the larger is the "square money" bulge, much more likely to be in sync with ERA than SIERA
=the larger is the edge that may be available to us

[italianbandit]

Great stuff, Fit. Thanks.

[italianbandit]

I would say Top 5 vs a Top 5 either way should get alerted. I will be looking.

[2daBank]

i like the idea but i would also mention that metrics always hate Loshe and they simply dont paint the entire picture of him, he has very good control and makes batters hit his pitches so his babip is always gonna be low and it is far from luck..that said he typically fades by sept so maybe he will work out on the list but normally he is not overpriced (maybe at open) but die hard metric guys almost always bet his lines down to where the value lies with betting on him imo..

[fitguy67]

paco...sorry for hi-jackin' ur thread...i ended up figurin' it out for myself...was surprised spread-sheet sections would cut&paste so easily onto a post window...

if u want, i can update & post this list here every week (and mention any new names entering either the ORP or URP top ten)...apart from that...life may continue as usual...

[pacocn]

Fit, Wow!!!! Unbelievable stuff, great job!!!!! This is very valuable info. I just got back from beach
to a great surprise. Please leave it right here, and thanks so much for your hard work. It will make finding
those "shit covered gold nuggets" much easier.

[pacocn]

Fit, it would be my honor to have you update it, add to it and post it as often
as you think it needs to be done. The rest of us can be on the look out for
the plays that present themselves. Thanks again

[pacocn]

Cash The Grand Salami 1-2 on the day, but we got the Grand.

[pacocn]

Updated Record 133-152 Up .43 units.
Ended up positive at the All Star break,
with all this new data and team work, books better
be ready for a beat down.

[2daBank]

Fit, it would be my honor to have you update it, add to it and post it as often
as you think it needs to be done. The rest of us can be on the look out for
the plays that present themselves. Thanks again

i second this as certainly could make my life easier on days when im rushed getting home from work late...i give die hard metric guys a lot of grief but that only because in certain times i dont believe they paint a clear and accurate picture and most metric guys use them as gospel (Grineke on the road comes to mind as they dont wanna believe the guy has issues and just trust the data, still a gm played by humans) but i do use them daily as one of many tools in my capping...

[fitguy67]

2dabank...be sure to pipe in when u see some value brewing somewhere...I'm a numbers guy (comfy with money management, stats and probability, and technical analysis of time-series data)...but not a sports metrics guy at all...putting this little "sharp" vs "square" ratio was my first foray into that world...it was fun but, like u, I don't wanna get in that "can't see the forest for the trees" deep

[pacocn]

2dabank...be sure to pipe in when u see some value brewing somewhere...I'm a numbers guy (comfy with money management, stats and probability, and technical analysis of time-series data)...but not a sports metrics guy at all...putting this little "sharp" vs "square" ratio was my first foray into that world...it was fun but, like u, I don't wanna get in that "can't see the forest for the trees" deep

Gentlemen lets all keep our eyes open and our machetes close to our sides.

[EXhoosier10]

Fit, that's awesome work, nice job.

This is a great starting point, plenty of these guys, as bank mentioned with Lohse, are consistently over/undervalued by these metrics.
Vogelsong has thrown ~300 innings as a Giant with a SIERA north of 4 and and ERA around 2.5.
Weaver has bested his SIERA in 4 straight years, and 3 of them by more than 0.5 runs.
CJ Wilson: had an ERA that was .5 and .8 runs below his SIERA in texas, and now 1.8 runs below in Anaheim.

Since SIERA is park adjusted, and ERA is, on average, half a reflection of home starts, this tool may be best utilized in neutral ball-parks (as SIERA is park-adjusted). Another suggestion would be to compile 2010 (or '11) - 2012 pitcher stats and flag the '12 chart when pitchers have shown some sort of ability to consistently outperform their SEIRA.

Don't mean to rain on your hard work, Fit, but Pac's thread is nothing but a goldmine and I don't want to see you, pac, or anyone else come in and make plays based on flawed data.

I'm in the process of collecting umpire stats (at least this year, trying to find a .xls schedule for previous years), so I'll be sure to share some stuff once finished.

[italianbandit]

Interesting tid-bit on Vogelsong is that he has shown (in various reports, I've read) a history of emotional instability. I think he might be a good candidate to exponentially regress faster if he starts having a few bad starts.

[BiffTFinancial]

Fit guy

[2daBank]

Interesting tid-bit on Vogelsong is that he has shown (in various reports, I've read) a history of emotional instability. I think he might be a good candidate to exponentially regress fast if he starts having a few bad starts.

never heard that about him, i know Grienke and jamie Garcia are certifiable head cases, backs up my theories they are pussies if a guy like volgelsong can keep his shit together with stuff not nearly as good as those 2...ill admit i was with metric guys about Vogelsong for some time, hell just watching him half the time i wonder why the opposing team doesnt have 5-6 runs ! finally sometime last year i just said "fukk it, obviously the guy just knows how to pitch"...