on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

[Douchebag50]

Today's plays

Waiting for all the bets today! keep it rolling!

Go On3!!!

[chound]

To Darkmatter,

What was the results of the first game on a RL, I didn't see them or I overlooked it somewhere. Thanks for your hardwork.

[on3]

System record 15-0-0; 4-0-0
Units +10.5
1 unit = $20

4/16

#16 -- houston @ WAS -260/-115 (A) -- o/u 7 - play RL
#17 -- ny mets @ ATL -170 (A) -- o/u 7.5
#18 -- minnesota @ NYY -185 (A) -- o/u 10
#19 -- oakland @ LAA -185 (A) -- o/u 6.5

Game 1 win = 9-6; 3-1
Game 2 win = 4-2; 1-0
Game 3 win = 2-0; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

21-22-17-22 (shifted to even out)
x-x-39-36
x-x-x-x

Labby Line (filter)

x-10-10-x

WAS to win 43
ATL to win 39
NYY to win 39
LAA to win 36

NYY to win 20 (filtered)

[NoHero]

Here's to a good day, fellas.

[J.M. Disciple]

Slickrick even though you may not like my contributions, at least I am contributing instead of just criticizing. yes 2 of my bets were C bets, Boston was an underdog and other two were favorites. But name one person who goes 5-0 betting all underdogs? Can not knock me cause i bet mostly favorites. Then going back to previous day all my predictions came true as well. If you do not have anything to contribute, then maybe you shouldn't say anything at all. your nonconstructive criticism is not welcomed.

[darkmatter117]

chound, thanks for the question. I stopped tracking R/L results for A bet early in the backtest. I believe it added 2-3 series losses in 2006 for AL alone -- the team would win game 1 by a run then drop the next two games. I may doublecheck if I have time this week, but I don't think there's going to be anything there.

[chound]

Thanks for the prompt reply dm. The main reason I'm asking is because if we follow the same aggressive labby or even a toned down version of the one on3 uses unless most of the loses are late in the year we should be able to recoup the losses and hold down the juice.

just my $.02

[SlickRick1382]

Slickrick even though you may not like my contributions, at least I am contributing instead of just criticizing. yes 2 of my bets were C bets, Boston was an underdog and other two were favorites. But name one person who goes 5-0 betting all underdogs? Can not knock me cause i bet mostly favorites. Then going back to previous day all my predictions came true as well. If you do not have anything to contribute, then maybe you shouldn't say anything at all. your nonconstructive criticism is not welcomed.

1. I never claimed not to like your contributions.

2. If you're the type who can't handle any criticism then perhaps you should be at home playing with barbies rather than in an online gambling forum.... Such is life, try not to whine so much ....

I could care less if you go 10-0, 20-0 or 0-10. You can make $10,000 today or lose $10,000 What you do doesn't bother me in the slightest. My original comment came from you calling Seattle the 2nd strongest play on the board a few days earlier. That was irresponsible of you since it may lead to some people betting more on one game than on another. I wasn't the only person to make that comment either.

You promptly came in gloating about how you rated your plays and how they were correct, which is what lead me to say that even a broken clock is right at least two times a day. I haven't been criticizing you more than you've come on here to gloat at your winnings like it would validate how you rated your plays.

You're changing this into something else. Post your plays, I could care less, Go 20-0, I could care less, just don't come on here saying Seattle was the 2nd strong play of the day and potentially influence newer members to bet differently because of what you said (when it refers to System plays we're making).

I'll leave you alone now since you seem ill-equipped to handle even the slightest bit of "criticism"


P.S. My apologies to the regular posters and the on3 for derailing the thread. I'll refrain from replying to any more comments of his ....

Best of luck to everyone throughout the season....

[alxsamsonov]

System record 15-0-0; 4-0-0
Units +10.5
1 unit = $20

4/16

#16 -- houston @ WAS -260/-115 (A) -- o/u 7 - play RL
#17 -- ny mets @ ATL -170 (A) -- o/u 7.5
#18 -- minnesota @ NYY -185 (A) -- o/u 10
#19 -- oakland @ LAA -185 (A) -- o/u 6.5

Game 1 win = 9-6; 3-1
Game 2 win = 4-2; 1-0
Game 3 win = 2-0; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

21-22-17-22 (shifted to even out)
x-x-39-36
x-x-x-x

Labby Line (filter)

x-10-10-x

WAS to win 43
ATL to win 39
NYY to win 39
LAA to win 36

NYY to win 20 (filtered)

Question: once we clear these lines then we go back to betting to win 20, right?

[J.M. Disciple]

Question: once we clear these lines then we go back to betting to win 20, right?

correct, once the lines are clear you start with a fresh line 10-10-10-10

[J.M. Disciple]

Question: Have any one tried using their sbr points in the casino using labby strategy? I just made 200pts pretty easy using it so far. The table cap of 200 might get in the way eventually, but seems like you can gain quite a bit of SBR points from it.

I calculated each point is worth .037 cents, so 200pts I made roughly $7.40 in like 15min...

I start with 1 # on my line
5 if i lose
5 5 if i lose agian
5 5 10 etc... Just my starting line starts with 1 # instead of traditional 4 #s. Anyone try this?
I started with 1965pts today and transfered 1,000 points into my sports book wallet, so we will see how it keeps going... Maybe try and win a $100 gift card or some thing.

[darkmatter117]

Leaving off September, the 2006 unfiltered, ML only numbers would be:

Unfiltered, ML only (172-6)
A bets: 121-56 (68.4%)
B bets: 34-23 (59.6%)
C bets: 17-6 (73.9%)

By leaving September off, you save yourself from one series loss, but you also lose 40 wins. My calculations could be wrong -- and please correct me if they are -- but I think that at -200 odds a series loss costs you 12 units if you're using labby lines. In other words, at least for 2006, stopping in August would have cost you money.

[darkmatter117]

Thanks Darkmatter, I've been working on a different betting strategy for this system and your numbers have helped cut down on my workload. Keep it coming if you can! And again thanks for your work!

Limit, I've been reading through this year's JM NBA thread (58 pages so far... I need a hobby) and noticed that you mentioned trying to find a way to apply 7/5 to MLB. Any luck there or is that what you're working on? It was actually that idea that got me started on this backtesting. Let me know if there's any way I can help.

[soul786]

Question: Have any one tried using their sbr points in the casino using labby strategy? I just made 200pts pretty easy using it so far. The table cap of 200 might get in the way eventually, but seems like you can gain quite a bit of SBR points from it.

I calculated each point is worth .037 cents, so 200pts I made roughly $7.40 in like 15min...

I start with 1 # on my line
5 if i lose
5 5 if i lose agian
5 5 10 etc... Just my starting line starts with 1 # instead of traditional 4 #s. Anyone try this?
I started with 1965pts today and transfered 1,000 points into my sports book wallet, so we will see how it keeps going... Maybe try and win a $100 gift card or some thing.

Good luck to you but the casino's anywhere are house favored. Lose 10 in a row at times and that'll clean you out fast. I've seen runs of 12 blacks in a row followed by a green in roulette before a red hits so...been there...done that...left empty. BOL though.

[J.M. Disciple]

Good luck to you but the casino's anywhere are house favored. Lose 10 in a row at times and that'll clean you out fast. I've seen runs of 12 blacks in a row followed by a green in roulette before a red hits so...been there...done that...left empty. BOL though.

Ending up losing 500pts just going to use my points to bet.

WagerType:PARLAY (5 TEAMS)
Date:	Team:
Apr 16	NBA [701] NEW ORLEANS -290
Apr 16	NBA [704] INDIANA -800
Apr 16	NBA [709] MIAMI -460
Apr 16	NBA [712] CHICAGO -1600
Apr 16	NBA [719] SAN ANTONIO -725
Risking 500 SBR To Win 613.43 SBR

I am not sure if i started with "1" as my labby line instead of "5" would of been any better. I just know 100 units in the casino not safe. You get a nice run going for a while, but quickly lose it back once the AI or some thing catches on. I was up 500pts at one point, so that means with starting labby line of "5" I dropped 1k in points from the peak. Ill stick with sports bets.

Worth looking at however.

[J.M. Disciple]

I am going to use this thread and system to labby my SBR points and share my strategy. Please just ignore this post and future post. I do not want to throw anyone off from the way On3 is doing it, but if you like my style, then go ahead and do it as well.

labby lines:
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Bets

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking / To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 16	MLB [952] WASHIN -260 [Action]	52.00 SBR / 20.00 SBR	1423820
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 16	MLB [954] ATLANT -170 [Action]	34.00 SBR / 20.00 SBR	1423821
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 16	MLB [964] NY YAN -184 [Action]	73.60 SBR / 40.00 SBR	1423822
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 16	MLB [970] LA ANG -185 [Action]	37.00 SBR / 20.00 SBR	1423823

In Order Was first line, ATL 1st line, LAA 2nd line, and NYY 3rd line.

[swordsandtequila]

Deleted post

[nitsuj378]

Limit, I've been reading through this year's JM NBA thread (58 pages so far... I need a hobby) and noticed that you mentioned trying to find a way to apply 7/5 to MLB. Any luck there or is that what you're working on? It was actually that idea that got me started on this backtesting. Let me know if there's any way I can help.

The only problem with implementing a 7/5 or 1/3/5 betting method is that the juice on MLB games always varies so its hard to measure what a loss will cost you in terms of units. In turn you might be laying a lot of juice for just 1 series win. I havn't beeen able to come up with anything myself but I am always open to bigger and better options.

[thelimit0310]

Limit, I've been reading through this year's JM NBA thread (58 pages so far... I need a hobby) and noticed that you mentioned trying to find a way to apply 7/5 to MLB. Any luck there or is that what you're working on? It was actually that idea that got me started on this backtesting. Let me know if there's any way I can help.

This is exactly what I've been working on, there have been a few minor changes to the formula and testing is still in progress on various ways-of-play, but so far things are looking promising. I'd rather not clutter the thread with theories until I'm ready to present, if you want to help send me a PM and we can get started! All help is appreciated and seeing as the season has just started - the sooner the better!

[thelimit0310]

The only problem with implementing a 7/5 or 1/3/5 betting method is that the juice on MLB games always varies so its hard to measure what a loss will cost you in terms of units. In turn you might be laying a lot of juice for just 1 series win. I havn't beeen able to come up with anything myself but I am always open to bigger and better options.

I have a juice calculator I've been using, so I know exact loss amounts during my backtests. I've already been checking various ways-of-play as stated and the results do look promising so far. As noted in my last post I will present my findings when they are ready.

[nitsuj378]

I have a juice calculator I've been using, so I know exact loss amounts during my backtests. I've already been checking various ways-of-play as stated and the results do look promising so far. As noted in my last post I will present my findings when they are ready.

I understand the juice calculator for backtesting. My question is, how do you determine the win percentage needed to be a winning system if the juice constantly changes? I guess what I am saying is, if a certain leg of a series (A,B, or C) is hitting at certain percentage, how do you determine if that is profitable with odds that change? Like I said I am open minded and always willing to here any inputs.

[TripleDDD]

LOL atlanta is garbage

[CrazyCarl]

LOL atlanta is garbage

I absolutely hated taking Atlanta at -160ish, but ultimately decided to do it. :/

[NoHero]

I absolutely hated taking Atlanta at -160ish, but ultimately decided to do it. :/

Unfortunately, we gotta follow the system.

[BSUWADDY]

Unfortunately, we gotta follow the system.

Hated ATL too. But took them.

Hated taking two C bets yesterday, but did it. The whole point of the system for me is that I don't have to bet based on how I feel or what I know about baseball--I've followed that path in the past and it taught me an expensive lesson: I'm not that smart! At the end of the season I'll be light years of where I'd be if I didn't follow the system.

We'll get em tomorrow. And LAA looks promising early............

[FezzHimself]

I have a question: I'm rather new to sports betting, and especially the Labby system. Is it too late to start my own Labby line, or can I start one at any point in time during the season? I'd likely only have one line set up as I'm still learning the ropes and don't want to complicate things for myself.

[darkmatter117]

Fezz, I'm new to Labby lines as well, but here's my understanding. It's never too late to start your own Labby line. However, using only one line is a very aggressive approach, and your bets will grow very large. The nice thing about using three lines is that you spread your losses across the series so, for example, you don't have to recover all of your A bet losses on future A bets -- B bets can contribute, too.

P.S. Limit, I'm three posts shy of being able to send PMs and have no intention of cluttering the thread to get there. I should be clear soon. And I would love to help. I'll PM you when I can. Thanks.

[eric14tsui]

2-2 tonight. The Mets have been great this year, hope ATL can pull out a win tmr

[airattackers]

angels win!!!

[ifiwaspresident]

My BR can handle a little ground and pound before tapping out so I am employing what I think is a more aggressive recovery system. I've done my gimbal conversions Houston, but I need a check of the arithmetic.

UNFILTERED
100-100-100-100
100-100-100-100
100-100-100-100

4.16 UF plays - WAS 480/200 (W), ATL 332/200 (L), NYY 360/200 (L), LAA 390/200 (W)

X-100-100-X
100-100-446-446
100-100-100-100

4.17 UF plays - ATL 568/546, NYY 1248/546, MIA 344/200

FILTERED
100-100-100-100
100-100-100-100
100-100-100-100

4.16 F plays - NYY 360/200 (L)

100-100-100-100
100-100-100-460
100-100-100-100

4.17 F plays - NYY 1316/560

Does this look right based on my 1U and trying to recover all +1U on each level? For the love of Christ tell me I'm right. I do not want to deal with this anymore. I'm already pissed I have to lay action on ATL against what appears to be a well-recovered Santana. I just want to put these bets down ASAP and start chewing on my Tark towel.

[J.M. Disciple]

Possible Bets for 4/17/2012
Blue Jays vs Rays
mariners vs indians
marlins vs cubs
brewers vs dodgers
cardinals vs reds

Official bets:
NYY (B) (-235) Filtered and unfiltered (2 bets)
ATL (B) (-106)



NOtes:
Mia is at -168 right now so that will be official over / Under 7
Tor is at -139 so might be a play later o/u 8
Sea (+113) no play
Mil (-124) no play
STL (-120) no play

total of 5 bets tomorrow with NYY having 2 bets on them.

Good luck ladies.

[Mosley]

Help on the system?

Is there somewhere that explains the system without asking in the forum? I have been watching the thread and want to understand it more in detail. Thanks in advance!

[nitsuj378]

I've done my gimbal conversions Houston, but I need a check of the arithmetic.

Hilarious. Thank you.

[swordsandtequila]

Is there somewhere that explains the system without asking in the forum? I have been watching the thread and want to understand it more in detail. Thanks in advance!

Links in post #3 and #30.

[oklahoma]

Just to be sure, we're playing this system based on opening lines right? If a game opens around -135 and goes up past -145 I dont think that counts as a play.