CappinTerps MLB Thread 2012

EXhoosier10 · 07-16-12, 07:45 AM

Have a question for ya, Cap. Your betting style seems pretty similar to mine (start the season out small, raise the avg bet size as the season progresses to summer), so I was wondering what % of bankroll you use for each unit. I'm using 1% as my base unit, with my average bet since June being ~2%. Trying to decide if I'm being overly aggressive or not.

THanks for the feedback

CappinTerp · 07-16-12, 11:03 AM

Too bad we missed with Houston they were in game all day and at +208 it was a 9.24 swing but a loss is a loss, 2-1 on the day for +1.00 units.........EXhoo got to run but will get to you later.

MLB:107-112
YTD:+3.78 UNITS

CappinTerp · 07-16-12, 05:16 PM

LAA +108 4 UNITS - Line looks a little low to me. Det. is hot winning 7 of 8 and has a team BA of .304 while avg. 6.1 runs per game the last 7. Santana has gotten shelled lately with a 9.42 ERA last 3 starts,his last 2 starts has given up 13 runs,13 hits and 6 walks in just 6.1 innings of work.Porcello in last 4 starts has given up only 6 ER'S in 23.2 innings for a 2.16 ERA. Career Santana is 6-2 with a 3.57 ERA and WHIP of just 1.094 career vs Det. Porcello is 3-1 with a high 5.94 ERA and WHIP of 1.361 career vs LAA.

PHIL -107 2 UNITS
SEA. -103 2 UNITS................................... ......GL

CappinTerp · 07-17-12, 08:38 AM

Went 2-1 on Mon. for +0.00 units.!!

MLB:109-113
YTD:+3.78

CappinTerp · 07-17-12, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Have a question for ya, Cap. Your betting style seems pretty similar to mine (start the season out small, raise the avg bet size as the season progresses to summer), so I was wondering what % of bankroll you use for each unit. I'm using 1% as my base unit, with my average bet since June being ~2%. Trying to decide if I'm being overly aggressive or not.

THanks for the feedback

Sorry it took me so long to get to you,very busy day yesterday.For myself 1 unit is = to 2% of my roll. I do start the season very slow with the amount of $ being risked.I am not ready to "swing away" until the the end of May.From what I know about you I don't think you are being overly aggressive. With me I have problems at times thinking I am too Conservative,but whatever works for you is what you feel good with and that is OK.! One thing for me is that come the post season I bet very little, one may follow MLB the whole season only to find out that betting the playoffs is a different animal to bet.! In fact I only made 2 bets during the 7 game World Series.!! Hope this helps..............................gl

EXhoosier10 · 07-17-12, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by CappinTerp

Sorry it took me so long to get to you,very busy day yesterday.For myself 1 unit is = to 2% of my roll. I do start the season very slow with the amount of $ being risked.I am not ready to "swing away" until the the end of May.From what I know about you I don't think you are being overly aggressive. With me I have problems at times thinking I am too Conservative,but whatever works for you is what you feel good with and that is OK.! One thing for me is that come the post season I bet very little, one may follow MLB the whole season only to find out that betting the playoffs is a different animal to bet.! In fact I only made 2 bets during the 7 game World Series.!! Hope this helps..............................gl

I go one step further and pretty much shut down come september when there's a ton of minor league players involved. my model pretty much goes to sh!t at that point and I mostly follow the NL central, so if I get outside of those 6 teams and I don't have much feel for anything.

I'm glad to hear you use 2%. At 1%, I'm pretty much ignoring half of my br as it's hard to forsee ever getting down 50 - 100 units (I did make it down to -30u, but I was hitting 40% to that point). For that reason, I too feel like I'm being conservative at 1% and have no issue betting 2%.

In the end, the goal should be to make as much use of your entire br as possible and not let any sit idly all season long, so I'm just trying to get a feel for what strategy other cappers employ. Thanks for your insight, Cap.

befus · 07-17-12, 10:55 AM

Good stuff guys. In my case (not that anyone asked me) a unit is from 3-5% depending on my success rate the previous week. I play a lot of half unit plays though, so it is in line with what you all do pretty much. My betting format was taught to me many years ago by a guy who is what I'd call a master gambler and I'd share the basics if anyone is interested. This is Terp's thread so I won't intrude or bore with the details here. GL men.

CappinTerp · 07-17-12, 03:15 PM

TWINS TT UNDER 4.5 -110 2 UNITS - Yesterday the Twins scored 19 runs along with 20 hits. Many times when a team shoots it's load that way the next day they come up empty. Zach Britton makes his 2012 debut after starting the season on the disabled list.Career vs Minn. he is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in 11 innings...........................gl

CappinTerp · 07-17-12, 03:40 PM

Parlay: ATL,CUBS,COL,PHIL,R.SOX and SEA. 1 UNIT - Should pay about 29-1.................................gl

CappinTerp · 07-17-12, 04:42 PM

Adding another unit to the Twins TT UNDER 4.5 for a total of 3 units.On this extra bet I had to lay -115.....Good luck to all.!!

Rose' · 07-17-12, 04:47 PM

I like this play Bol Cap

Smutbucket · 07-17-12, 04:48 PM

Definately like britton and the o's in this spot today

deduno? no way

rumnblack · 07-17-12, 04:48 PM

BOL

CappinTerp · 07-18-12, 09:51 AM

Well had the right idea but just did not happen, 0-2 on the day for -4.35 units.

MLB:109-115
YTD: -0.57

CappinTerp · 07-18-12, 11:26 AM

tor. +152 1 unit.........................gl

CappinTerp · 07-18-12, 12:08 PM

phil/lad - over 6 -105 1 unit.............................gl

befus · 07-18-12, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by CappinTerp

phil/lad - over 6 -105 1 unit.............................gl

Two runs each in the 10th! You kidding me Terp, you've snatched victory from the jaws of defeat! Have to say you were due old friend.

CappinTerp · 07-19-12, 08:40 AM

Originally posted by befus

Two runs each in the 10th! You kidding me Terp, you've snatched victory from the jaws of defeat! Have to say you were due old friend.

IT'S about time for some luck,which we all need. Maybe a precursor for things to turn around.!! Went 1-1 yesterday for +0.00 units.

MLB:110-116
YTD:-0.57

CappinTerp · 07-19-12, 10:41 AM

arz/cin - over 8.5 -110 2 units...............................gl

CappinTerp · 07-19-12, 11:26 AM

Hey trottor I will ask nicely do not come in my thread with this self serving bull shit.!!

Bradfordmiller · 07-19-12, 11:41 AM

G/L Cappin, still dont know how we cashed on the Philly/LA over, it went someway to ease the pain of my bets refunded on the Cubs and Yankees from strong winning positions.

CappinTerp · 07-19-12, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by Bradfordmiller

G/L Cappin, still dont know how we cashed on the Philly/LA over, it went someway to ease the pain of my bets refunded on the Cubs and Yankees from strong winning positions.

Yea buddy luck good and bad do play a part in betting.We hit the over in the ARZ/CIN game,but more importantly there were other games that I was considering that all look like a hit,so maybe time to open the throttle.............gl

MLB:111-116
YTD:+1.43

Bradfordmiller · 07-19-12, 03:26 PM

Could be a good day today, thanks to your zona pick, plus i was on the Mets and Atlanta. If the cubs hang on too yesterday will be forgotten. Keep up the good work mate.

CappinTerp · 07-20-12, 10:31 AM

MIA. -101 4 UNITS - Mia. has Pitt's number. They have won 13 out of the last 16 games and are 6-1 the last 7 at Pitt. Nolasco career vs Pitt. has a 2.28 ERA with a WHIP of just 1.091. Correia career vs Mia. has a high ERA of 8.39 and WHIP of 1.951 with a 2-4 record.The last 3 outings Nolasco has a ERA of 2.95 while Correia has a ERA of 5.29.!............................gl

CappinTerp · 07-20-12, 12:15 PM

balt. +120 1 unit...............................gl

Smutbucket · 07-20-12, 02:18 PM

marlins stuck out to me like a sore thumb too. glad you like them as well.

KC · 07-20-12, 03:17 PM

CappinTerp · 07-20-12, 03:40 PM

Hey nostorius get the fukk out of this thread and sell your bull shit somewhere else.!!

CappinTerp · 07-20-12, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

marlins stuck out to me like a sore thumb too. glad you like them as well.

Good luck buddy, let's get it.!!................................... .gl

EXhoosier10 · 07-20-12, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by CappinTerp

MIA. -101 4 UNITS - Mia. has Pitt's number. They have won 13 out of the last 16 games and are 6-1 the last 7 at Pitt. Nolasco career vs Pitt. has a 2.28 ERA with a WHIP of just 1.091. Correia career vs Mia. has a high ERA of 8.39 and WHIP of 1.951 with a 2-4 record.The last 3 outings Nolasco has a ERA of 2.95 while Correia has a ERA of 5.29.!............................gl

I'm riding with you on these next few plays, 'terp. I agree with you and feel a hot streak on the way!

CappinTerp · 07-21-12, 10:07 AM

Went 1-1 on Fri. for -2.84 units.

MLB:112-117
YTD:-1.41

CappinTerp · 07-21-12, 10:14 AM

lad/mets - under 8.5 -120 2 units.....................gl

CappinTerp · 07-21-12, 11:01 AM

ATL +104 (game #1) 2UNITS.......................GL

CappinTerp · 07-21-12, 11:17 AM

sd -103 4 units.............................gl

CappinTerp · 07-21-12, 11:41 AM

HOUSTON +190 2 UNITS - Not my style to bet on a cold team to win but this one worth a shot. Miley has a high ERA of 8.43 his last 3 outings.This kid Keuchel is a good young lefty. In 25.2 IP he has an ERA of just 2.45 and in night games(I know it's a small sample) has ERA of 1.50.................................... ..gl