Durito v St. Andrew Bet

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  • durito
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 07-03-06
    • 13173

    #1
    Durito v St. Andrew Bet
    Terms:

    1) St. Andrew will make 40 2-team parlay selections at payout odds of no lower than +140 in the MLB season.
    2) Plays will be posted in this thread, listing the odds for each team and the payout odds. Odds will be used from the Greek sportsbook at the time of the post (to be verified by SBR Odds if necessary).
    3) Editing of posts is not permitted and results in an auto loss.

    If St. Andrew wins 24 or more out of 40 parlays (60%) he wins the bet. If he wins 23 or less Durito wins.

    St. Andrew gets +300 odds on a bet of $300 (ie. Durito will pay $900 if he wins)

    Good luck, I estimate a 1.1% chance of winning.
  • ryanXL977
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-24-08
    • 20615

    #2
    if st andy wins this, he is a bad ass
    i dont think its possible
    not in baseball
    hard to get one game right
    Comment
    • St. Andrew
      SBR MVP
      • 02-23-08
      • 2265

      #3
      Durito is smart. He'll lose the bet and still cash by playing my picks.
      Comment
      • wallym
        SBR Hustler
        • 02-12-08
        • 89

        #4
        shouldn't it be measured on the profit/loss rather than % win? a lower % win might still result into profit because of its risk-reward ratio...just a thought...

        anyways, all the best! this thread will surely be closely followed.
        Comment
        • rake922
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 12-23-07
          • 11692

          #5
          sub'd
          Comment
          • durito
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 07-03-06
            • 13173

            #6
            Originally posted by St. Andrew
            Durito is smart. He'll lose the bet and still cash by playing my picks.
            I don't play random posters "picks".

            This isn't a hobby for me. The estimates I gave you on winning this bet are reasonably accurate.
            Comment
            • St. Andrew
              SBR MVP
              • 02-23-08
              • 2265

              #7
              Durito what is the action on tonight's bet, in or out?
              Comment
              • St. Andrew
                SBR MVP
                • 02-23-08
                • 2265

                #8
                I need an answer before these games progress further.
                Comment
                • durito
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 07-03-06
                  • 13173

                  #9
                  Originally posted by St. Andrew
                  Durito what is the action on tonight's bet, in or out?
                  I don't recall which games you played, but let's start tomorrow.
                  Comment
                  • St. Andrew
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-23-08
                    • 2265

                    #10
                    Fantastic. I'm losing both at the moment.
                    Comment
                    • FreeFall
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-20-08
                      • 3365

                      #11
                      so we still have yet to see durito post winning picks out of all eight of those pages? St. Andrew my hat is tipped to you sir.
                      Comment
                      • rake922
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 12-23-07
                        • 11692

                        #12
                        most can't win 60% of straight bets....... and this is for 60% on parlays

                        Should be interesting
                        Comment
                        • durito
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 07-03-06
                          • 13173

                          #13
                          Originally posted by FreeFall
                          so we still have yet to see durito post winning picks out of all eight of those pages? St. Andrew my hat is tipped to you sir.

                          I just made the biggest +EV bet you will see in your lifetime.
                          Comment
                          • BuddyBear
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 08-10-05
                            • 7233

                            #14
                            Originally posted by FreeFall
                            St. Andrew my hat is tipped to you sir.

                            I can book your bets too if you want?
                            Comment
                            • Kingctb27
                              SBR MVP
                              • 07-16-08
                              • 2258

                              #15
                              GL my friend...
                              Comment
                              • FreeFall
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-20-08
                                • 3365

                                #16
                                Originally posted by BuddyBear
                                I can book your bets too if you want?
                                No, I want you to post picks of your "sample size" proving that your opinion is valid. I'd like to listen to you, but you have nothing that backs you.
                                Comment
                                • BuddyBear
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 08-10-05
                                  • 7233

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by FreeFall
                                  No, I want you to post picks of your "sample size" proving that your opinion is valid. I'd like to listen to you, but you have nothing that backs you.
                                  Today I took FLA (2 units), MIL/STL U 10, COL, and CLEV +1.5
                                  Comment
                                  • durito
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 07-03-06
                                    • 13173

                                    #18
                                    nm
                                    Comment
                                    • smitch124
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 05-19-08
                                      • 12566

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by durito
                                      It doesn't take a lot of skill to figure out that hitting 60% at +140 is virtually impossible.

                                      Have you all taken middle school math?
                                      Of course 60% success at +140 is ridiculous, we just give St. Andrew credit for throwing his picks out there. Anybody can come in here tell everybody they suck, takes no skill...
                                      Comment
                                      • St. Andrew
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-23-08
                                        • 2265

                                        #20
                                        Tuesday

                                        Tampa (-160) / St. Louis (-130)

                                        Payoff +188

                                        $85 to win $159
                                        Comment
                                        • HedgeHog
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 09-11-07
                                          • 10128

                                          #21
                                          I see the bets were trimmed down to 40, so once loss #17 occurs it's over. A fair Over/Under for the end of this match is 28.5 games. I lean toward the Under. I say this gets decided on the 26th pick. Any other thoughts?

                                          Good Luck, Andy. If you need more action, I'll offer you 5-1 on this same arrangement. I'm good for it.
                                          Comment
                                          • pat venditto
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 05-07-07
                                            • 14347

                                            #22
                                            Durito definately got the best of it on this bet. +300 odds is clearly not good value for this proposition.
                                            Comment
                                            • Wilforth
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 05-10-08
                                              • 16309

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by wallym
                                              shouldn't it be measured on the profit/loss rather than % win? a lower % win might still result into profit because of its risk-reward ratio...just a thought...

                                              anyways, all the best! this thread will surely be closely followed.
                                              You said it all.
                                              Comment
                                              • Ganchrow
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 08-28-05
                                                • 5011

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by HedgeHog
                                                I see the bets were trimmed down to 40, so once loss #17 occurs it's over. A fair Over/Under for the end of this match is 28.5 games. I lean toward the Under. I say this gets decided on the 26th pick.
                                                A few descriptive stats (all assuming St. Andrew places every parlay at +140):

                                                Assuming all singles are taken at -182 off a 20¢ unbiased line, the expected number of games until decision is about 28.07 with a fair total of about 27½o-108.45. This corresponds to a 0.70% probability of Andrew winning his bet for an EV of -97.22%.

                                                Assuming 0 house edge, the expected number of games until decision is about 29.08 with a fair total of about 28½o-108.81. This corresponds to a 1.48% probability of Andrew winning his bet for an EV of -94.08%.

                                                Assuming a player EV of +20% per parlay, the expected number of games until decision is about 33.13 with a fair total of 33½+102.74. This corresponds to a 13.41% probability of Andrew winning his bet for an EV of -46.36%.

                                                Assuming a player EV of +28.18% per parlay, the expected number of games until decision is about 34.56 with a fair total of about 34o-108.27. This corresponds to a 25% probability of Andrew winning his bet for an EV of 0.

                                                Good luck to both parties.
                                                Comment
                                                • durito
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 07-03-06
                                                  • 13173

                                                  #25
                                                  Upon waking up a little soberer this morning, I feel really bad about letting Andrew take this bet.

                                                  If you want out, feel free. Otherwise, BuddyBear will track the results in this thread, as I won't be around much the next month or so. Good luck.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • max_asdf
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 07-22-08
                                                    • 1362

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Wilforth
                                                    You said it all.

                                                    using %'s because i think this stemmed from a disagreement earlier?


                                                    dont think this is about money anyways... saint trying to show up the world...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • HedgeHog
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 09-11-07
                                                      • 10128

                                                      #27
                                                      Andy,

                                                      Take Durito up on his generous offer. This is a sucker bet.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • durito
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 07-03-06
                                                        • 13173

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by max_asdf
                                                        using %'s because i think this stemmed from a disagreement earlier?


                                                        dont think this is about money anyways... saint trying to show up the world...
                                                        It's not about the money, I would have had him send it to charity as sending me money is difficult. BuddyBear said he needed it, so he's gonna monitor it and get the money.

                                                        The bet was offered in jest after Andrew wrote his 15 rules and then got upset when people offered constructive criticism. He said he hits 60% on his two team parlays at +160. Even after I told him the approximate odds of winning the bet, he still insisted on making it.

                                                        As Ganchrow's post shows, even if St. Andrew is perhaps the best baseball handicapper ever and can find parlays with EV of 28.18% each, only then is this even a fair bet for both parties. As such, St. Andrew could in fact be a great handicapper, and still would need to be quite lucky to win this bet.

                                                        So while several people have said he'd be a "bad ass" if he wins this, that's really not the case. As I suggested in the other thread, the bigger the sample size the even more impossible this bet becomes and his only chance was running lucky over a small sample size.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • max_asdf
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 07-22-08
                                                          • 1362

                                                          #29
                                                          yes.. with only 40 bets, is the only reason i think this is somewhat possible.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • durito
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 07-03-06
                                                            • 13173

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by max_asdf
                                                            yes.. with only 40 bets, is the only reason i think this is somewhat possible.

                                                            Sure, I mean the no-vig chances of doing this over 500 plays drops to .00000000000001276%.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BuddyBear
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 08-10-05
                                                              • 7233

                                                              #31
                                                              I haven't worked in about 3 months. My funding at the university dried up. I am sure I'll have a job somewhere come fall, but I've been relying on gambling winnings to get by the past few months. This could come in handy. I am willing to take this bet. But don't worry, if I lose the bet, my word is as good as gold you'll get paid....
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Ganchrow
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 08-28-05
                                                                • 5011

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Ganchrow
                                                                A few descriptive stats (all assuming St. Andrew places every parlay at +140)
                                                                I just realized that these over/under and expected-time-to-completion numbers don't take into account the possibility of an early win by St. Andrew. (The EV and win probabilities are nevertheless correct.)

                                                                EDIT: Above figures have been corrected.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • accuscoresucks
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 11-03-07
                                                                  • 7160

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by St. Andrew
                                                                  Tuesday

                                                                  Tampa (-160) / St. Louis (-130)

                                                                  Payoff +188

                                                                  $85 to win $159

                                                                  those their negetive lines come with an advantage i say both of you win 75% of all your bets
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • pokernut9999
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 07-25-07
                                                                    • 12757

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I can lose 60% of parlays .
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • accuscoresucks
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 11-03-07
                                                                      • 7160

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by pokernut9999
                                                                      I can lose 60% of parlays .
                                                                      right on im a little off keel today going insane for some reason im craving golf think ill go for a round in a little bit.

                                                                      mabye i should voulenteer to be a lab rat for one of the new fema camps
                                                                      Comment
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