Durito v St. Andrew Bet

[durito]

Terms:

1) St. Andrew will make 40 2-team parlay selections at payout odds of no lower than +140 in the MLB season.
2) Plays will be posted in this thread, listing the odds for each team and the payout odds. Odds will be used from the Greek sportsbook at the time of the post (to be verified by SBR Odds if necessary).
3) Editing of posts is not permitted and results in an auto loss.

If St. Andrew wins 24 or more out of 40 parlays (60%) he wins the bet. If he wins 23 or less Durito wins.

St. Andrew gets +300 odds on a bet of $300 (ie. Durito will pay $900 if he wins)

Good luck, I estimate a 1.1% chance of winning.

[ryanXL977]

if st andy wins this, he is a bad ass
i dont think its possible
not in baseball
hard to get one game right

[St. Andrew]

Durito is smart. He'll lose the bet and still cash by playing my picks.

[wallym]

shouldn't it be measured on the profit/loss rather than % win? a lower % win might still result into profit because of its risk-reward ratio...just a thought...

anyways, all the best! this thread will surely be closely followed.

[rake922]

sub'd

[durito]

Durito is smart. He'll lose the bet and still cash by playing my picks.

I don't play random posters "picks".

This isn't a hobby for me. The estimates I gave you on winning this bet are reasonably accurate.

[St. Andrew]

Durito what is the action on tonight's bet, in or out?

[St. Andrew]

I need an answer before these games progress further.

[durito]

Durito what is the action on tonight's bet, in or out?

I don't recall which games you played, but let's start tomorrow.

[St. Andrew]

Fantastic. I'm losing both at the moment.

[FreeFall]

so we still have yet to see durito post winning picks out of all eight of those pages? St. Andrew my hat is tipped to you sir.

[rake922]

most can't win 60% of straight bets....... and this is for 60% on parlays

Should be interesting

[durito]

so we still have yet to see durito post winning picks out of all eight of those pages? St. Andrew my hat is tipped to you sir.

I just made the biggest +EV bet you will see in your lifetime.

[BuddyBear]

St. Andrew my hat is tipped to you sir.

I can book your bets too if you want?

[Kingctb27]

GL my friend...

[FreeFall]

I can book your bets too if you want?

No, I want you to post picks of your "sample size" proving that your opinion is valid. I'd like to listen to you, but you have nothing that backs you.

[BuddyBear]

No, I want you to post picks of your "sample size" proving that your opinion is valid. I'd like to listen to you, but you have nothing that backs you.

Today I took FLA (2 units), MIL/STL U 10, COL, and CLEV +1.5

[durito]

nm

[smitch124]

It doesn't take a lot of skill to figure out that hitting 60% at +140 is virtually impossible.

Have you all taken middle school math?

Of course 60% success at +140 is ridiculous, we just give St. Andrew credit for throwing his picks out there. Anybody can come in here tell everybody they suck, takes no skill...

[St. Andrew]

Tuesday

Tampa (-160) / St. Louis (-130)

Payoff +188

$85 to win $159

[HedgeHog]

I see the bets were trimmed down to 40, so once loss #17 occurs it's over. A fair Over/Under for the end of this match is 28.5 games. I lean toward the Under. I say this gets decided on the 26th pick. Any other thoughts?

Good Luck, Andy. If you need more action, I'll offer you 5-1 on this same arrangement. I'm good for it.

[pat venditto]

Durito definately got the best of it on this bet. +300 odds is clearly not good value for this proposition.

[Wilforth]

shouldn't it be measured on the profit/loss rather than % win? a lower % win might still result into profit because of its risk-reward ratio...just a thought...

anyways, all the best! this thread will surely be closely followed.

You said it all.

[Ganchrow]

I see the bets were trimmed down to 40, so once loss #17 occurs it's over. A fair Over/Under for the end of this match is 28.5 games. I lean toward the Under. I say this gets decided on the 26th pick.

A few descriptive stats (all assuming St. Andrew places every parlay at +140):

Assuming all singles are taken at -182 off a 20¢ unbiased line, the expected number of games until decision is about 28.07 with a fair total of about 27½o-108.45. This corresponds to a 0.70% probability of Andrew winning his bet for an EV of -97.22%.

Assuming 0 house edge, the expected number of games until decision is about 29.08 with a fair total of about 28½o-108.81. This corresponds to a 1.48% probability of Andrew winning his bet for an EV of -94.08%.

Assuming a player EV of +20% per parlay, the expected number of games until decision is about 33.13 with a fair total of 33½+102.74. This corresponds to a 13.41% probability of Andrew winning his bet for an EV of -46.36%.

Assuming a player EV of +28.18% per parlay, the expected number of games until decision is about 34.56 with a fair total of about 34o-108.27. This corresponds to a 25% probability of Andrew winning his bet for an EV of 0.

Good luck to both parties.

[durito]

Upon waking up a little soberer this morning, I feel really bad about letting Andrew take this bet.

If you want out, feel free. Otherwise, BuddyBear will track the results in this thread, as I won't be around much the next month or so. Good luck.

[max_asdf]

You said it all.

using %'s because i think this stemmed from a disagreement earlier?


dont think this is about money anyways... saint trying to show up the world...

[HedgeHog]

Andy,

Take Durito up on his generous offer. This is a sucker bet.

[durito]

using %'s because i think this stemmed from a disagreement earlier?


dont think this is about money anyways... saint trying to show up the world...

It's not about the money, I would have had him send it to charity as sending me money is difficult. BuddyBear said he needed it, so he's gonna monitor it and get the money.

The bet was offered in jest after Andrew wrote his 15 rules and then got upset when people offered constructive criticism. He said he hits 60% on his two team parlays at +160. Even after I told him the approximate odds of winning the bet, he still insisted on making it.

As Ganchrow's post shows, even if St. Andrew is perhaps the best baseball handicapper ever and can find parlays with EV of 28.18% each, only then is this even a fair bet for both parties. As such, St. Andrew could in fact be a great handicapper, and still would need to be quite lucky to win this bet.

So while several people have said he'd be a "bad ass" if he wins this, that's really not the case. As I suggested in the other thread, the bigger the sample size the even more impossible this bet becomes and his only chance was running lucky over a small sample size.

[max_asdf]

yes.. with only 40 bets, is the only reason i think this is somewhat possible.

[durito]

yes.. with only 40 bets, is the only reason i think this is somewhat possible.

Sure, I mean the no-vig chances of doing this over 500 plays drops to .00000000000001276%.

[BuddyBear]

I haven't worked in about 3 months. My funding at the university dried up. I am sure I'll have a job somewhere come fall, but I've been relying on gambling winnings to get by the past few months. This could come in handy. I am willing to take this bet. But don't worry, if I lose the bet, my word is as good as gold you'll get paid....

[Ganchrow]

A few descriptive stats (all assuming St. Andrew places every parlay at +140)

I just realized that these over/under and expected-time-to-completion numbers don't take into account the possibility of an early win by St. Andrew. (The EV and win probabilities are nevertheless correct.)

EDIT: Above figures have been corrected.

[accuscoresucks]

Tuesday

Tampa (-160) / St. Louis (-130)

Payoff +188

$85 to win $159

those their negetive lines come with an advantage i say both of you win 75% of all your bets

[pokernut9999]

I can lose 60% of parlays .

[accuscoresucks]

I can lose 60% of parlays .

right on im a little off keel today going insane for some reason im craving golf think ill go for a round in a little bit.

mabye i should voulenteer to be a lab rat for one of the new fema camps