LTA's MLB Plays

**Les_Nuts** · 04-30-12, 10:41 PM

Another push on -1rl lol we can't catch a break with those. Hammel pitched well for the orioles tbf but I was disappointed in bottom of 6th or 7th when the Yankees had runners on the corners with 1 out but gave up a double play, they usually convert those opportunities with their lineup but they didn't hit well today. Looking forward to tomorrows picks

**ronnieseah** · 04-30-12, 10:44 PM

did you bet Play #3 Pirates/Braves under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)???

Originally posted by dlunc3

fun to hit these before the game is even halfway over

**dlunc3** · 04-30-12, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by ronnieseah

did you bet Play #3 Pirates/Braves under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)???

Yes, but i was referring the late game

**meader99** · 04-30-12, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

CRIS and BetOnline still had at O6 -120 close to closing, where Pinny and others had it at 6.5.
Took it earlier not knowing it was under consideration.

Was hoping the Brewers carried the total but looks like the Pads are currently the ones hitting the ball. Not sure where the Brewers offense has gone of late ...

My boy Braun got back on the juice this week. He helped carry the over.

**Love The Action** · 04-30-12, 11:56 PM

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/1/2012

Play #1

Pirates ML (+175) 1x (Locked)

I'lll take another shot with Morton against the redbirds and Wainwright who still does not look like himself. I have this set at +150 giving us a full 25 cents of value so I am definitely running with the value on the Pirates for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Marlins/Giants under (6) 1x (Locked)

I expect this to drop to -120 or more by morning so I'm jumping on this at -110 now. I have this total set at 5.02 so not quite a full run of value, but close enough for this pitching matchups with both guys having good starts to this season. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Diamondbacks/Nationals under (6.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Cahill has unfamiliarity on his side, while Zimmerman has dominated these D-back hitters. I have this game set at 5.5 even giving us one run of value and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Phillies/Braves under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 5.45 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 05-01-12, 06:40 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/1/2012

Play #1

Pirates ML (+175) 1x (Locked)

I'lll take another shot with Morton against the redbirds and Wainwright who still does not look like himself. I have this set at +150 giving us a full 25 cents of value so I am definitely running with the value on the Pirates for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Marlins/Giants under (6) 1x (Locked)

I expect this to drop to -120 or more by morning so I'm jumping on this at -110 now. I have this total set at 5.02 so not quite a full run of value, but close enough for this pitching matchups with both guys having good starts to this season. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Diamondbacks/Nationals under (6.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Cahill has unfamiliarity on his side, while Zimmerman has dominated these D-back hitters. I have this game set at 5.5 even giving us one run of value and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Phillies/Braves under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 5.45 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Indians/White Sox under (7)(+105) 1x (Locked)

I've been waiting for this to drop so as to avoid the heavy juice at 7.5. I would rather risk the push in this game than pay the heavy tax. I have this game set at 6 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 05-01-12, 07:47 AM

Wow.... I'm surprised the mets/astros has not seen more juice on the over. I thought I could get plus odds on the under this morning but it just has not materialized. Two young solid lefties are getting some market love.

**MikeyD323** · 05-01-12, 08:02 AM

Hmmmm one underdog an all unders today? How confident are you today? More or less than other days? I want to start tailing you, i like your style but dont want to start if its a day your not 100% confident.

**Love The Action** · 05-01-12, 08:03 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/1/2012

Play #1

Pirates ML (+175) 1x (Locked)

I'lll take another shot with Morton against the redbirds and Wainwright who still does not look like himself. I have this set at +150 giving us a full 25 cents of value so I am definitely running with the value on the Pirates for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Marlins/Giants under (6) 1x (Locked)

I expect this to drop to -120 or more by morning so I'm jumping on this at -110 now. I have this total set at 5.02 so not quite a full run of value, but close enough for this pitching matchups with both guys having good starts to this season. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Diamondbacks/Nationals under (6.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Cahill has unfamiliarity on his side, while Zimmerman has dominated these D-back hitters. I have this game set at 5.5 even giving us one run of value and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Phillies/Braves under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 5.45 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Indians/White Sox under (7)(+105) 1x (Locked)

I've been waiting for this to drop so as to avoid the heavy juice at 7.5. I would rather risk the push in this game than pay the heavy tax. I have this game set at 6 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Mets/Astros under (8) 1x (Locked)

I might be jumping on this too soon but I thought I could get plus odds and instead the line keeps moving toward the under so I will take -110 while I still can. I have this game set at 7.04 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 05-01-12, 08:11 AM

Originally posted by MikeyD323

Hmmmm one underdog an all unders today? How confident are you today? More or less than other days? I want to start tailing you, i like your style but dont want to start if its a day your not 100% confident.

Huh? That question makes zero sense. Why would I make a wager I am not confident about? Why would you think i am "unconfident" because i am playing a dog and unders? Would you feel better If I were on a favorite and overs lol? I really don't understand your question but think you are the one lacking confidence about my plays. I don't encourage anyone to tail so if you don't like the plays then don't play them. Its your money so you have to make your own choice. Good luck on whatever you choose.

**Pluthero** · 05-01-12, 08:28 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Wow.... I'm surprised the mets/astros has not seen more juice on the over. I thought I could get plus odds on the under this morning but it just has not materialized. Two young solid lefties are getting some market love.

Good luck LTA. I'm on this play with you and am also surprised that there hasn't been more juice on the over. I've seen a whole lot of Happ since he got traded to Houston and can say that he is neither young nor solid (except for the short stretch last year after he got called back up). Niese is a good 'un though and should be able to shut down Houston's lineup, with or without Lee.

**Love The Action** · 05-01-12, 08:32 AM

Originally posted by Pluthero

Good luck LTA. I'm on this play with you and am also surprised that there hasn't been more juice on the over. I've seen a whole lot of Happ since he got traded to Houston and can say that he is neither young nor solid (except for the short stretch last year after he got called back up). Niese is a good 'un though and should be able to shut down Houston's lineup, with or without Lee.

I disagree. Happ is 28 with a SIERA under 3.9 for the last two seasons. That is young and solid in my book. You need to dig deeperr into the fielding independent numbers to Give a fair evaluation of pitchers and I think all the Astros losses has clouded your mind too negatively about Happ. He could be a consistent 12 game winner on a better team. GL

**MikeyD323** · 05-01-12, 08:37 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Huh? That question makes zero sense. Why would I make a wager I am not confident about? Why would you think i am "unconfident" because i am playing a dog and unders? Would you feel better If I were on a favorite and overs lol? I really don't understand your question but think you are the one lacking confidence about my plays. I don't encourage anyone to tail so if you don't like the plays then don't play them. Its your money so you have to make your own choice. Good luck on whatever you choose.

Makes perfect sense. Some day im feeling amazing about my picks and some days im feelin pretty good and sometimes idk and take a 50/50 shot. Just askin a nice ?, dnt have to get all hostile on me. Idk about baseball and you seem like a pro so id like to follow

**Love The Action** · 05-01-12, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by MikeyD323

Makes perfect sense. Some day im feeling amazing about my picks and some days im feelin pretty good and sometimes idk and take a 50/50 shot. Just askin a nice ?, dnt have to get all hostile on me. Idk about baseball and you seem like a pro so id like to follow

I wasn't being hostile....just being straightforward. I would never make a play unless i am 100% confident. Making a play you only feel 50/50 about is the reason people lose their bankrolls. I don't make a play unless I have a discernible edge as identified by my model. To me, it boggles my mind why others would not be the same way. Again, however, it's your money and you have to do what is in your best interests. Good luck buddy.

**Pluthero** · 05-01-12, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I disagree. Happ is 28 with a SIERA under 3.9 for the last two seasons. That is young and solid in my book. You need to dig deeperr into the fielding independent numbers to Give a fair evaluation of pitchers and I think all the Astros losses has clouded your mind too negatively about Happ. He could be a consistent 12 game winner on a better team. GL

Fair enough. He's actually 29, and I don't have a ton of faith in SIERA so that's probably why we disagree. I can tell you that before he got sent down last year he waa hell of a nibbler and got behind in the count too often to be successful long term. Once he was called back up he was more aggressive and pitched better. Time will tell which Happ we see this year but if he keeps his K rate up and walks down (I realize that's kind of cliche), he'll work out.

**Les_Nuts** · 05-01-12, 10:16 AM

Do you have an opinion on the total in the Bronx LTA? Both pitchers are trash IMO, I think it sails over 10 runs

**No coincidences** · 05-01-12, 10:27 AM

Any opinion on the ATL/PHI side LTA? That should be a good one.

Surprised the over's getting hit in the WAS/ARI game, given the Nats' struggles at the plate right now and their penchant for never hitting when Zimm pitches.

**Lovin'life** · 05-01-12, 10:56 AM

LTA, I have a question I would like your opinion on. If you are "getting value", is it a good idea to increase your risk? I understand risk it all on a sure thing is a sure way to lose it all. In the long term does this hold true for marginal increases?

**befus** · 05-01-12, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/1/2012

Play #1

Pirates ML (+175) 1x (Locked)

I'lll take another shot with Morton against the redbirds and Wainwright who still does not look like himself. I have this set at +150 giving us a full 25 cents of value so I am definitely running with the value on the Pirates for 1x. Good luck.

Unfortunately that is exactly what I had and will have to play against my Cards. If Waino goes well tonight I'll accept he's back, but he still has little movement on the cutter and basically gutted it in his last start. Going opposite on one of the other plays tho. GL to you in any case, I enjoy your comments.

**Pick'nParlays** · 05-01-12, 12:10 PM

Matt Cain kills it tonight watch n see

**CHAZ** · 05-01-12, 03:27 PM

Fyi lta

[ATTACH]41688[/ATTACH]

**BeardedTaco** · 05-01-12, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by CHAZ

Fyi lta

[ATTACH]41688[/ATTACH]

The play is already locked in... It's not like LTA can predict exact weather conditions the day before.

**SlickRick1382** · 05-01-12, 04:00 PM

Heard the wind in the Giants / Marlins game was blowing out. Anyone heard anything of the same?

**SlickRick1382** · 05-01-12, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by BeardedTaco

The play is already locked in... It's not like LTA can predict exact weather conditions the day before.

Not entirely true. You can buy out due to weather conditions

**paco** · 05-01-12, 07:28 PM

GL lta, looks like u are doing some good work in here. Keep up the good work.

**Vinnie Paz** · 05-01-12, 11:20 PM

Thanks for the unders pal

**Love The Action** · 05-01-12, 11:51 PM

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/1/2012 Recap

3 - 3 = -0.1x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

58 - 43 - 7 = +14.80x

Just gotta grind...

**Love The Action** · 05-01-12, 11:53 PM

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/2/2012

Play #1

Rangers/Blue Jays under (8.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Phillies/Braves under (6)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Too tired for writeups. Good luck.

**adrenalinerush** · 05-01-12, 11:53 PM

Originally posted by Pick'nParlays

Matt Cain kills it tonight watch n see

You're right; he did, but the Giants just don't score against Nolasco. Glad it covered, but would have rather seen a 3-2 SF victory.

**Love The Action** · 05-01-12, 11:59 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/2/2012

Play #1

Rangers/Blue Jays under (8.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Phillies/Braves under (6)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Too tired for writeups. Good luck.

Play #3

Dodgers ML (-150) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

**No coincidences** · 05-02-12, 12:01 AM

Aren't you surprised to see the TEX/TOR total at 8.5? I figured it'd open at 8.

**taxe91** · 05-02-12, 04:30 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Aren't you surprised to see the TEX/TOR total at 8.5? I figured it'd open at 8.

i think lines are trying to account for harrisons poor start last time out. also hamilton may play

**Love The Action** · 05-02-12, 06:07 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Aren't you surprised to see the TEX/TOR total at 8.5? I figured it'd open at 8.

No. Why would you think it would open at 8? Texas has not had one total all year open that low and they are playing a good offense today. The lowest total they have seen all year has been 8.5, but they've only seen that four times not including today. All other Texas totals have been at 9 or more. We won't see a Texas total open at 8 unless they play at the Trop with top level pitchers going for both teams and even then we might not see it. Those high totals are one reason why Texas has been such a great under bet all year going 7-15 o/u. The books know people love betting Texas overs, especially at home. Consequently, you can usually find some value in ranger totals on the under. GL buddy.

**No coincidences** · 05-02-12, 09:41 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

No. Why would you think it would open at 8? Texas has not had one total all year open that low and they are playing a good offense today. The lowest total they have seen all year has been 8.5, but they've only seen that four times not including today. All other Texas totals have been at 9 or more. We won't see a Texas total open at 8 unless they play at the Trop with top level pitchers going for both teams and even then we might not see it. Those high totals are one reason why Texas has been such a great under bet all year going 7-15 o/u. The books know people love betting Texas overs, especially at home. Consequently, you can usually find some value in ranger totals on the under. GL buddy.

Just assumed either Hamilton and/or Beltre would be resting. As it turns out, both are.

Harrison and Romero -- lefty/lefty matchup -- day game, etc. Seems ripe for an under.

**Love The Action** · 05-02-12, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/2/2012

Play #1

Rangers/Blue Jays under (8.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Phillies/Braves under (6)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Too tired for writeups. Good luck.

Play #3

Dodgers ML (-150) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

Play #4

Brewers -1RL (-116) 1x (Locked)

Gallardo has not been sharp so I would rather risk the push than pay the heavy juice. However, this a great bounce back spot for Gallardo and I expect the brewers to beat up on Suppan. I am rolling with the Brewers on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.