LTA's MLB Plays

[G-manFan]

Thanks for a profitable day. BOL on tomorrows card.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/29/2012 Recap

3 - 1 = +2.1x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

54 - 38 - 6 = +16.01x

Good luck on Monday.

[yankeekansan]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/29/2012 Recap

3 - 1 = +2.1x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

54 - 38 - 6 = +16.01x

Good luck on Monday.

Thanks LTA! Great way to finish the weekend +

[Jay Harry]

Your Killing it! Haters Gonna Hate!!

[pacocn]

Lta

[bmur714]

Another week in the black

Thank you LTA

[Kurtz]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/29/2012 Recap

3 - 1 = +2.1x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

54 - 38 - 6 = +16.01x

Good luck on Monday.

[absolutkaos]

GREAT weekend LTA! lots of fun with winners in both MLB & NBA! thanks for the hard work!

[SlickRick1382]

Does your bookie allow you to actually play the -1RL? I can do that on 5 Dimes but not on local bookies, at least not yet, shopping for some more locals

Or do you need to do the whole 1 unit on the ML and another on the 1.5 RL?

LTA
Just in case you missed it. Was wondering on how you do it before I book any bets on them since the other way leaves me open to twice as much exposure if they inexplicably lose


Thanks, rick

[taxe91]

LTA
Just in case you missed it. Was wondering on how you do it before I book any bets on them since the other way leaves me open to twice as much exposure if they inexplicably lose


Thanks, rick

creating a synthetic line is how I do it f that helps

[Atlfan12]

Been following you and Dex, but going to start focusing more on your plays because I missed his A3's. Let's get it

[fitguy67]

LTA
Just in case you missed it. Was wondering on how you do it before I book any bets on them since the other way leaves me open to twice as much exposure if they inexplicably lose


Thanks, rick

SlickRick, dlunc just posted a nice explanation (and a handy calculator too) of how to "roll your own" -RL with exactly the same characteristics of a "pre-packaged" one.

see: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-b...iness-p24.html
posts #818-19

[LoneStar]

LTA - TB/TEX UNDER 9+105. It looks good!

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2012/umpire8514.html	3	2-1	4.33	271	170	101	62.7	12.3	4.7	2.64	1.33	0-3

9 of his last 10 have been under

T/B - Price's - last three starts against Texas haven't been awful; he has allowed just 3 runs in each game over at least six innings of work. Josh Hamilton (2-13), Ian Kinsler (3-12), David Murphy (2-8), Mike Napoli (2-11), Yorvit Torrealba (0-6) and Michael Young (2-12) all have poor numbers against

TEX - Holland is 4-1 with a 5.79 ERA in six career starts against the Rays, but Carlos Pena (0-6), Sean Rodriguez (1-7) and Ben Zobrist (3-12)

Alright LTA nice hit for the both of us and your fans; who followed!

[SlickRick1382]

SlickRick, dlunc just posted a nice explanation (and a handy calculator too) of how to "roll your own" -RL with exactly the same characteristics of a "pre-packaged" one.

see: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-b...iness-p24.html
posts #818-19

Appreciate the response bud and thanks for the link.

I'm familiar with how to make a 1RL game betting the ML and RL

Was just curious if LTA bets it the same or if his book Allows -1RL bets.

Although part of my comment was dumb, wasn't thinking. Doesn't leave me over exposed. Was late and didn't think it thru properly...

[taxe91]

Appreciate the response bud and thanks for the link.

I'm familiar with how to make a 1RL game betting the ML and RL

Was just curious if LTA bets it the same or if his book Allows -1RL bets.

Although part of my comment was dumb, wasn't thinking. Doesn't leave me over exposed. Was late and didn't think it thru properly...

my book (bet365) offers -1 run lines but they sneakily offer a third option which is the underdog+1. meaning if you play the -1 run line and the game is decided by -1 you dont get the push. bastards.

[gtboy]

bet365 -1rl is 3way be careful. they r giving tricky bets. i wonder why even offer -1rl and if the team win by 1 u still lose. u might as well bet -1.5. i use b365 only for slack change and live betting. they really suck at odds and most of the advantage is in their favor. it not not equal playing ground. i bet on cricket and if the match tie they still win, taking 1/2 of wager, fkers. my serious mony is with pinn and 5d. both of then offer -1 two-way(push if ur team win by 1)

[IXL]

Good LOOKS on the picks LTA! U DA MAN!

[Clutch423]

REAL Appreciation

Been following your NBA and MLB picks for the past 6 months, and wanted to publicly thank you for your hard work and insightful handicapping. I often notice your references to balancing work/family/SBR and couldn't help but speak up today with my full respect. I had to invent an SBR member name today to pass along my sincere thanks for the way in which you go about your business on here. I am sure that you are a valuable asset to your work and family---without question.

Love this quote from [I believe] Winston Churchill: "Leadership is a potent combination of both strategy and character. But if you must be without one, be without the strategy" ... How much you actually know about someone from following their sports wager advice? Quite a bit, actually!


The quote above is posted prominently in my office and home, and I found it very fitting when complimenting you for always sticking fervently to the Golden Rule when speaking with others on this site.

Please please keep up the good work, you're helping me KILL my local on the baseball books. Nothing but love from Chattanooga, TN, my friend

[taxe91]

bet365 -1rl is 3way be careful. they r giving tricky bets. i wonder why even offer -1rl and if the team win by 1 u still lose. u might as well bet -1.5. i use b365 only for slack change and live betting. they really suck at odds and most of the advantage is in their favor. it not not equal playing ground. i bet on cricket and if the match tie they still win, taking 1/2 of wager, fkers. my serious mony is with pinn and 5d. both of then offer -1 two-way(push if ur team win by 1)

i play the cricket markets heavily too (i use bet365 obviously from my post above) i find it a good site for cricket they have some of the best live markets ive come across. have never had an issue with a tie though since that only happens once every blue moon

[CHAZ]

Play #3

Pirates/Braves under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I expect this one to drop to 7 tomorrow morning. McDonald is coming off a nice efficient start and generally faces Atlanta tough. Minor has a chance to be really good and has some unfamiliarity working for him in this game. The wind is projected to blow out at 7 mph, but that's not really a concern at that speed. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Sweet! You and Dex are both on this play. I liked it as soon a I found out Nauert was umping it. Unfortunately, for me right now I can't get 7.5. I'll just wait around and hope it moves back

Goodluck today!

[bmur714]

Sweet! You and Dex are both on this play. I liked it as soon a I found out Nauert was umping it. Unfortunately, for me right now I can't get 7.5. I'll just wait around and hope it moves back

Goodluck today!

Just a FYI....

There were a few other posters discussing other cappers picks in my thread today. The only reason I commented about that is because I do not like to know what other cappers are on until my card is final. This is a superstition of mine to avoid any sub-conscience influence on my decision making from knowing what other cappers are taking before I am done with my picks.

[CHAZ]

superstition of mine to avoid any sub-conscience influence on my decision making from knowing what other cappers are taking before I am done with my picks.

Hes already made his decision on this particular play. If he wants me to delete it I will, but I in no way tried to influence his play.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/30/2012

Play #1

Mariners ML (+114) 1x (Locked)

I have the Mariners set at +107 and I could be wrong, but I don't think this one goes up more than a couple more cents before dropping in our favor. At some point, Hellickson's .218 BABIP is going to rise and his 87% LOB% is bound to go down. Hellickson will regress at some point and the Mariners have been a hitting a bit better of late. I like King Felix at this price and I am rolling with the Mariners for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Yankees -1RL (-125) 1x (Locked)

This will be the first time I've backed the Yankees all season and I like the price on the RL. This is available at -169 on the ML and I have NY set at -180. I would rather risk the push in this game that play the ML because I just don't see it happening. Kuroda is a solid #3 in this league and I am not a believer in Hammel. We are actually getting value on the Yanks, so I'm going to roll with them on the -1RL. Good luck.

Play #3

Pirates/Braves under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I expect this one to drop to 7 tomorrow morning. McDonald is coming off a nice efficient start and generally faces Atlanta tough. Minor has a chance to be really good and has some unfamiliarity working for him in this game. The wind is projected to blow out at 7 mph, but that's not really a concern at that speed. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Looks like I jumped the gun on the Mariners play. I regret not waiting as I could get that now for ten cents better at +124. That is the first play in the last 12 that I have not gotten at or close to the best available price. I suppose there's always a chance we beat the closer if sharps by up Seattle at some point, but that was not one of my better plays seeing as I lost out on all that value. Oh well, we are way ahead of the market in the other two plays by about ten cents so let's hope those plays keep moving in our direction. GL

[Love The Action]

Been following your NBA and MLB picks for the past 6 months, and wanted to publicly thank you for your hard work and insightful handicapping. I often notice your references to balancing work/family/SBR and couldn't help but speak up today with my full respect. I had to invent an SBR member name today to pass along my sincere thanks for the way in which you go about your business on here. I am sure that you are a valuable asset to your work and family---without question.

Love this quote from [I believe] Winston Churchill: "Leadership is a potent combination of both strategy and character. But if you must be without one, be without the strategy" ... How much you actually know about someone from following their sports wager advice? Quite a bit, actually!


The quote above is posted prominently in my office and home, and I found it very fitting when complimenting you for always sticking fervently to the Golden Rule when speaking with others on this site.

Please please keep up the good work, you're helping me KILL my local on the baseball books. Nothing but love from Chattanooga, TN, my friend

[Love The Action]

Sweet! You and Dex are both on this play. I liked it as soon a I found out Nauert was umping it. Unfortunately, for me right now I can't get 7.5. I'll just wait around and hope it moves back

Goodluck today!

Good luck Chaz

[bmur714]

Hes already made his decision on this particular play. If he wants me to delete it I will, but I in no way tried to influence his play.

No pun intended chaz... I'm glad they are both on the same as well. Just didn't want other people to open that door up again.

BOL

[TxBulldog]

In reference to post #6460

Heavily juiced (-130) but still 7.5 at 5dimes. If 5dimes is not one of you MLB outs and you reside in the USA, I think you are giving away $. They get a LARGE % of my totals plays due to low juice

[fitguy67]

Further to the "-1RL" discussion...I just discovered something very interesting (and potentially long-term exploitable) about -1RLs: "roll your own" vs. "pre-packaged"

I just discovered at Pinny that the book charges you a "tax/surcharge/premium", call it what you will, for providing the convenience of a -1RL. I would not be surprised at all if most others do the same. So next time you have the opportunity to directly hit a -1RL...i suggest investigating the "roll your own option" with the same book first.

Last night for the NYY-1, ML was -168 and RL was +121...so to win 100, doing it yourself involves
*ML..................-76.02/+45.25
*RL-1.5.............-45.25/+54.75
Total.................-121.27/+100
meaning the -1RL has odds of -121.27

Here's the kicker...if you hit -1RL from the pull down menu it clearly shows -123 for the "pre-packaged" equivalent bet.

The 1-2 cents charge here is not insignificant over a season. From now on, when it comes to -1RL bets, I'll no longer just take the "convenient" ones, just cuz they're there...at least not until i've taken a few secs to calculate and compare the odds on the synthetic vs. the available -1RL line.

[fitguy67]

I just started a new thread over in "players talk" section about the "hidden cost" of the prepackaged -1RLs, cuz i'm curious just how widespread (and how expensive is the convenience vs the DIY option) at other books...so anyone wishing to pipe in on this "cents-saving" topic could do so over there, rather than clutter LTA's "dollar-making" thread.

[alamo]

Great to know that info Fitguy. Thanks for the writeup

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Nice job in here LTA!! Thanks for your time and effort, truly a class act!

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/30/2012

Play #1

Mariners ML (+114) 1x (Locked)

I have the Mariners set at +107 and I could be wrong, but I don't think this one goes up more than a couple more cents before dropping in our favor. At some point, Hellickson's .218 BABIP is going to rise and his 87% LOB% is bound to go down. Hellickson will regress at some point and the Mariners have been a hitting a bit better of late. I like King Felix at this price and I am rolling with the Mariners for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Yankees -1RL (-125) 1x (Locked)

This will be the first time I've backed the Yankees all season and I like the price on the RL. This is available at -169 on the ML and I have NY set at -180. I would rather risk the push in this game that play the ML because I just don't see it happening. Kuroda is a solid #3 in this league and I am not a believer in Hammel. We are actually getting value on the Yanks, so I'm going to roll with them on the -1RL. Good luck.

Play #3

Pirates/Braves under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I expect this one to drop to 7 tomorrow morning. McDonald is coming off a nice efficient start and generally faces Atlanta tough. Minor has a chance to be really good and has some unfamiliarity working for him in this game. The wind is projected to blow out at 7 mph, but that's not really a concern at that speed. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Brewers/Padres over (6.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Debated this all day and should have taken it at 6 -120 when I had the chance, but I do think we have some value on this play despite Wieland's unfamiliarity factor and the ball park. The ump is neutral overall but does have an average strike rate under 63% and the wind is blowing out gently to right field. I have this game set 7.48 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[SlickRick1382]

CRIS and BetOnline still had at O6 -120 close to closing, where Pinny and others had it at 6.5.
Took it earlier not knowing it was under consideration.

Was hoping the Brewers carried the total but looks like the Pads are currently the ones hitting the ball. Not sure where the Brewers offense has gone of late ...

[dlunc3]

Play #4

Brewers/Padres over (6.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Debated this all day and should have taken it at 6 -120 when I had the chance, but I do think we have some value on this play despite Wieland's unfamiliarity factor and the ball park. The ump is neutral overall but does have an average strike rate under 63% and the wind is blowing out gently to right field. I have this game set 7.48 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

fun to hit these before the game is even halfway over

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/30/2012 Recap

1 - 2 - 1 = -1.15x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

55 - 40 - 7 = +14.90x

Tough extra inning loss with Seattle to take a winning day away from us....time for a rebound tomorrow. Good luck.