LTA's MLB Plays

[G-manFan]

There is a way to put losers like this on ignore, anyone remember the process or the link?

Its under your account settings, edit ignore list.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/profile.php?do=ignorelist

[WVU9494]

You don't give a shit about all this??? You post on here all day?

Oooooooo, you are soooooo scary. Oh no WVU is going to ruin my little SBR thread.

You act like a give a shit about all this. Go ahead little girl, I dare you. Keep posting because it will be pleasure to embarrass you on a daily basis.

[WVU9494]

Just add the name and hit okay. I do it all the time.

Its under your account settings, edit ignore list.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/profile.php?do=ignorelist

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/29/2012

Play #1

Brewers/Cardinals under (7)(+105) 1x (Locked)

If you like this play, try to get plus odds at 7 instead of the heavy juice at 7.5. I think the risk of a push is minimal in this game as I think this one is a low scoring pitcher's dual or it flies over. We do have some weather concerns with wet weather projected for today, so we will monitor that situation and buy-out if we think rain delays are a possibility. However, my model really loves this starting pitching matchup with big advanced numbers for both pitchers. When you consider that these bullpens are both top ten in a lot of categories and I think we can get out of this series with one under after the first two games went over the posted total. The ump is Cousins who is fairly friendly to the under and the wind is blowing from the right field corner toward third base. I have this game set at 6.01 and it's going to take a total of 8 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals ML (-105) 1x (Locked)

I think we are getting 10 cents of value in this spot and I would much rather back the lefty Gonzales as opposed to the left Capuano. The Dodgers have the better offense with Kemp, but I think the Nationals' Harper could breathe some life into a lineup that needs some more punch. Capuano has not fared well against the Nats lineup, while Gio has the unfamiliarity factor in his favor. When you consider the value we are getting considering that I have this game at -115 and I have to pull the trigger. I am rolling with the Nationals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Tigers/Yankees under (9)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Here's another play that, because of the strength of the lineups, you are better off risking the push at plus odds by taking 9 than paying the heavy juice at 9.5. These lineups are dangerous and could easily push this game over, but I think Scherzer and Sabathia both give us quality starts after the lackluster pitching we have seen in the previous two games between these teams. Both starting pitchers have the ability to limit the lineups and both have found success in the past. Scherzer's numbers actually are better against the Bombers than some of the weaker lineups in the league. When you consider that both Scherzer and Sabathia are elite strikeout guys in terms of K% both in the 23% range, I think we have the advantage because the less contact given up in this game the better. The ump is Rob Drake who is a long time under guy with a strike rate consistently over 63% and in some seasons 64%, while the weather has a mild 6-7 mph wind blowing across the field toward the right field foul line. I have this total set at 7.97 with over a full run of value and it's going to take a total of 10 to beat us. I don't think it gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Devil Rays/Rangers under (9)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Pinny started to drop the juice on the over from -123 to -116, so I'm locking the under in now at +105. I expect the juice to be on the under by game time. My only concern is the weather so I will keep an eye on the wind throughout the day. I have this at 8 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[dshaffe4]

Guys lets give WVU9494 a break. He's obviously from West Virginia, went to West Virginia, or married to his sister. Maybe a parlay of all 3. This would explain his trolling and ridiculous comments.

Keep doin ya thing LTA!

[mirandoce]

Bol guys!! Keep it simple!

[meader99]

Screw you dude, you attacked me more then once. If you want a battle with me I wold be glad to ruin your thread. If you were a tout I would pay for your picks because it's about money, but as a human being you are an ahole.

This right here is priceless!!!!

[WVU9494]

Haha, I know right???

This right here is priceless!!!!

[WVU9494]

So, just this morning, this thread has dehumanized the hard working people and people of west Virginia. Keep it up guys, good work. Btw, spent 4 years in west Virginia, great people. Nice 50's stereotype

Guys lets give WVU9494 a break. He's obviously from West Virginia, went to West Virginia, or married to his sister. Maybe a parlay of all 3. This would explain his trolling and ridiculous comments.

Keep doin ya thing LTA!

[WVU9494]

Let's go nationals. West Virginians and hard working people suck!!!!!

[Love The Action]

So, just this morning, this thread has dehumanized the hard working people and people of west Virginia. Keep it up guys, good work. Btw, spent 4 years in west Virginia, great people. Nice 50's stereotype

The comments of other posters in this thread do not the represents the views or statements of me or this thread. One of my best friends went to WVU and I rather enjoy their football games.

Are you seriously going to waste your time to troll like this? Let's get back to winning money. This is a waste of both our times.

[WVU9494]

I agree dude. Let's get back to winning money and stop the personal attacks.

[Love The Action]

I agree dude. Let's get back to winning money and stop the personal attacks.

[Love The Action]

Looks like I should have played the Cubbies....damn. I actually like the White Sox as well, but missed the move from +118 and now it's at +109 which is where my model has it. I have to pass though because I just don't know what to expect from Beckett. He could be on his game.

Oh well, I'm out for the day. Will try to post any other plays from my phone. Good luck.

[FaM0us Skins]

What should I pick for the Padres-Giants game?

[2daBank]

What should I pick for the Padres-Giants game?

crazy as it sounds i actually think ov 7 is the best play in that gm..pads tend to be in higher scoring gms during the day, Bumfukker can have some control problems at times, ump behind plate w rather tight kzone, several guys on both teams with decent numbers against opposing pitchers...in the end it still pads/sf so it could be 1-0 but like the chances of this getting to 8...

[SlickRick1382]

If you were a tout I would pay for your picks because it's about money, but as a human being you are an ahole.

If her were a tout you would pay for his picks because it's all about making money

But just the other day you were bitching in Dexter's thread about how you can NEVER get his lines. So why would you pay for a service that you can't get the same lines as them and risk not having the same end result?

Which one is it? He's a good capper and made you money or he's a bullshit capper and tosses out fake lines.

You are too bi-polar for anyone's liking. Make up your mind and stick with it ....

[FaM0us Skins]

crazy as it sounds i actually think ov 7 is the best play in that gm..pads tend to be in higher scoring gms during the day, Bumfukker can have some control problems at times, ump behind plate w rather tight kzone, several guys on both teams with decent numbers against opposing pitchers...in the end it still pads/sf so it could be 1-0 but like the chances of this getting to 8...

I decided to go with the Giants runline. They are doing good so far

[hundredbombs]

Tailed #1 & 3, mixed it in with my picks helped me to go 5-2-1 today.

Debating #4 and the Rays tonight. Thanks LTA!

[No coincidences]

Play #4

Devil Rays/Rangers under (9)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Pinny started to drop the juice on the over from -123 to -116, so I'm locking the under in now at +105. I expect the juice to be on the under by game time. My only concern is the weather so I will keep an eye on the wind throughout the day. I have this at 8 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Given Price's track record vs. Texas, Holland's inconsistency and the fact that these are the top two offenses in baseball vs. lefties at the moment, I'd be interested to see how you capped this at 8 LTA.

[WVU9494]

Even though I can't get his lines his picks still win, just a little extra juice I lose. We have squashed this bro, quit instigating.

If her were a tout you would pay for his picks because it's all about making money

But just the other day you were bitching in Dexter's thread about how you can NEVER get his lines. So why would you pay for a service that you can't get the same lines as them and risk not having the same end result?

Which one is it? He's a good capper and made you money or he's a bullshit capper and tosses out fake lines.

You are too bi-polar for anyone's liking. Make up your mind and stick with it ....

[SlickRick1382]

Even though I can't get his lines his picks still win, just a little extra juice I lose. We have squashed this bro, quit instigating.

Excuse me since I'm not current on all things SBR related when it comes to pettiness and beef. I didn't get the memo it was squashed. I'll take your word for it and hopefully don't have to read anymore disparaging comments coming from you

Good Luck today

[LoneStar]

Given Price's track record vs. Texas, Holland's inconsistency and the fact that these are the top two offenses in baseball vs. lefties at the moment, I'd be interested to see how you capped this at 8 LTA.

See post #6385 & #6388. What track record you looking at?

[WVU9494]

Right back at you with your disparaging comment remark.

Excuse me since I'm not current on all things SBR related when it comes to pettiness and beef. I didn't get the memo it was squashed. I'll take your word for it and hopefully don't have to read anymore disparaging comments coming from you

Good Luck today

[G-manFan]

LTA, Looks like the wind has shifted and is now coming in straight from the South instead of the SouthEast and is forecasted to stay that way for the duration of the game. From your earlier post, this helps our cause, correct?

[LoneStar]

LTA, Looks like the wind has shifted and is now coming in straight from the South instead of the SouthEast and is forecasted to stay that way for the duration of the game. From your earlier post, this helps our cause, correct?

engineers were successful slowing the winds down somewhat in the southeast, they were unsuccessful slowing down the winds to centerfield. Winds roaring out of the concourses create a giant wind tunnel, which kills fly-ball pitchers and rewards power hitters.

Source: http://www.guide-to-baseball-betting...n-weather.html

[LoneStar]

LTA I'm liking this spot at 12:40p.m tomorrow 04/30

Arizona Diamondbacks P Corbin - L
Miami Marlins M Buehrle - L (RL -1.5)&(o7½ -115)

Despite the run support Marlins have giving Buehrle the last couple starts, I believe they own it too him and make it up to him in this position. I know it..... you're gonna tell me the unfamiliar factor, but the Kid Corbin has been knock around in pee-wee ball. They just made the phone call today to him, letting him know that he will toe it up with Buehrle tomorrow and his heartbeat is racing. This kid is gonna be lock into the jumbotron behind him all day...thinking he just arrived at Disney World.

Check out his numbers (Corbin) not impressive. I'm really confidence with the time, place, situation and match-up here. I wanted too take the RL -1.5 parlayed with the over 7.5 however 5dimes won't let me, so I had to settle with -160 ML (YIKES) and OVER 7.5 (-115). Its a double-up! I have a strong feeling this will get juiced up and then moved up to 8.

ADDED: I'm feeling a 6-2/6-3 type of game here

[SlickRick1382]

engineers were successful slowing the winds down somewhat in the southeast, they were unsuccessful slowing down the winds to centerfield. Winds roaring out of the concourses create a giant wind tunnel, which kills fly-ball pitchers and rewards power hitters.

Source: http://www.guide-to-baseball-betting...n-weather.html

Not entirely sure that the winds are totally against us. Didn't research where the winds came from, lack of time, but saw that the Under moved in our favor so not buying out of the play just yet. Got the under at U9 +105 and looked to be at U9 at -115 with steam moves on the Under on 9.5 at -120 right before the 8pm mark.

[Love The Action]

Given Price's track record vs. Texas, Holland's inconsistency and the fact that these are the top two offenses in baseball vs. lefties at the moment, I'd be interested to see how you capped this at 8 LTA.

Stats. GL

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/30/2012

Play #1

Mariners ML (+114) 1x (Locked)

I have the Mariners set at +107 and I could be wrong, but I don't think this one goes up more than a couple more cents before dropping in our favor. At some point, Hellickson's .218 BABIP is going to rise and his 87% LOB% is bound to go down. Hellickson will regress at some point and the Mariners have been a hitting a bit better of late. I like King Felix at this price and I am rolling with the Mariners for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/30/2012

Play #1

Mariners ML (+114) 1x (Locked)

I have the Mariners set at +107 and I could be wrong, but I don't think this one goes up more than a couple more cents before dropping in our favor. At some point, Hellickson's .218 BABIP is going to rise and his 87% LOB% is bound to go down. Hellickson will regress at some point and the Mariners have been a hitting a bit better of late. I like King Felix at this price and I am rolling with the Mariners for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Yankees -1RL (-125) 1x (Locked)

This will be the first time I've backed the Yankees all season and I like the price on the RL. This is available at -169 on the ML and I have NY set at -180. I would rather risk the push in this game that play the ML because I just don't see it happening. Kuroda is a solid #3 in this league and I am not a believer in Hammel. We are actually getting value on the Yanks, so I'm going to roll with them on the -1RL. Good luck.

[SlickRick1382]

Play #2

Yankees -1RL (-125) 1x (Locked)

This will be the first time I've backed the Yankees all season and I like the price on the RL. This is available at -169 on the ML and I have NY set at -180. I would rather risk the push in this game that play the ML because I just don't see it happening. Kuroda is a solid #3 in this league and I am not a believer in Hammel. We are actually getting value on the Yanks, so I'm going to roll with them on the -1RL. Good luck.

Does your bookie allow you to actually play the -1RL? I can do that on 5 Dimes but not on local bookies, at least not yet, shopping for some more locals

Or do you need to do the whole 1 unit on the ML and another on the 1.5 RL?

[taxe91]

Surprised to see you fading hellboy LTA, I thought you were a fan of his. Do you see any value in the run total for that particular game? Im getting a horrible price for Under 7 at the moment so im waiting for it to move

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/30/2012

Play #1

Mariners ML (+114) 1x (Locked)

I have the Mariners set at +107 and I could be wrong, but I don't think this one goes up more than a couple more cents before dropping in our favor. At some point, Hellickson's .218 BABIP is going to rise and his 87% LOB% is bound to go down. Hellickson will regress at some point and the Mariners have been a hitting a bit better of late. I like King Felix at this price and I am rolling with the Mariners for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Yankees -1RL (-125) 1x (Locked)

This will be the first time I've backed the Yankees all season and I like the price on the RL. This is available at -169 on the ML and I have NY set at -180. I would rather risk the push in this game that play the ML because I just don't see it happening. Kuroda is a solid #3 in this league and I am not a believer in Hammel. We are actually getting value on the Yanks, so I'm going to roll with them on the -1RL. Good luck.

Play #3

Pirates/Braves under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I expect this one to drop to 7 tomorrow morning. McDonald is coming off a nice efficient start and generally faces Atlanta tough. Minor has a chance to be really good and has some unfamiliarity working for him in this game. The wind is projected to blow out at 7 mph, but that's not really a concern at that speed. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Surprised to see you fading hellboy LTA, I thought you were a fan of his. Do you see any value in the run total for that particular game? Im getting a horrible price for Under 7 at the moment so im waiting for it to move

Nope, not a fan of Hell boy. I think he's been getting a lot of luck that won't continue.