good luck buddy make that money today
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Comment -
explain to me how taking the angels to win at -182 is a better play then taking them at -1.5 +126. reguardless of the "true line" if you believe the angels are gonna win why bet 182 to win 100 when theyll most likely win by more then 1 and its 100 to win 126. if seattle wins one costs u 100 one costs u 182...i actually wouldnt take this today as i think fister is way better then ppl give him credit for but to me it seems like the right moveComment -
so your taking angels -182 today?Comment -
Blind eye:
San diego
kc
tor
oakland
___________
? Baltimore
? Wsox
? St louis
? Dodgers
? YanksComment -
reservoir dog...bingo! and said in simple direct terms, not like some pseudo-intellectual pompous assComment -
reminds me that pages back the "King of Condescension" aka Lard &Mustard was droning on in convoluted fashion about "value"...here's my attempt to put the essence of the really rather simple concept that he was trying his damndest to have us think was his alone to comprehend. (I'm actually recycling this post from a few days earlier, but thot' it'd help fill the gap till the night games kick in...and do so with ideas, rather than gang-trolling)...here goes...
____________________________
once you research and select your plays...it's up to the players to perform over/at/under their form...
As an analogy, imagine you cap the single-zero roulette at to show a "Black" at 18/37 = 48.64% (ie. at implied "break even" decimal odds of 2.055921 or american odds of +105.5921)...you see there's an edge cuz books are "mistakenly" (perhaps to offset a public fascination with "32red") offering the Black-play at +107. You correctly call our attention to the edge for us to exploit...
Now if Red comes up...you didn't screw up in any way...there was an edge...and whatever happened this time, the next time you see Black (or, in this example, Red as well) offered at +106 or above...you should do/advise just as you did. Over time it is the correct (ie. +EV) play.
Back to the more complex world of sport...Cappers "cap"=call our attention to perceived exploitable mismatches between the probability of an event occurring and the implied probability built into the odds (1/decimal format to be exact)...but then the players play (ie. the real world "spins"). When a capper perceives probability it's a mental simulation of the same game occurring in a thousand parallel universes. Then the real world = this universe somehow spits up but one such result...a "longshot" result occurs a small percentage of the time (when for example the crap team plays its best game of the year...and the great team just can't get it together...a combination much less likely than both teams playing at or near their cappable form.
What profound truths have I overlooked, Lost and Musty...I'd like you to shed light...but you just seem to "shed".Comment -
all great except it's over everyone's head. we're on a forum where people follow a guy who looks at games and then picks a side and they believe that its possible to win doing that
the point i've always tried to make more has to do with an understanding of vig, not so much being results oriented which is what it seems you're getting at. that i know is a losing battle, people see a guy who is 20-10 and they start following him its a jokeLast edited by Lord and Master; 07-07-11, 01:03 PM.Comment -
GG,
Why do you like CWS? Line went from -175 to -150. Seems like you would usually go for the dog in this situation? Minn owns em.
What say you?Comment -
why do you live in this thread then ?
You are saying its not possible...yet ive been ganbling succesfully for 19 yrs now
I won 1000 units in the NBA... Im up 350 units in bases
Yet you continuesly say its impossible
Its not the 2nd or 3rd week of baseball clown... We are in the 4th month and im up 350 units
If it was a fluke I would have lost it all back months agoComment -
paging westcoast
useless without a z-score. i'm really pushing it bringing z-score into a thread where people can't comprehend vig but ok. and your gross units are a ridiculous exaggeration because your bets are always 5+I won 1000 units in the NBA... Im up 350 units in basesComment -
goldengreek i am low on funds and hope we get some winners today
been paying out too much lately
lets goComment -
only thing to add is that bettors who back a winning longshot result are rewarded with a premium somewhat proportional to their taking the riskier result (and if capped properly, the premium more than offsets it)...and bettors who throw in with the favorite actually pay a penalty somewhat proportional to the "safeness" of bet (again, if capped well, the book-line-determined penalty is less than enough to offset the true likelihood of the favorite succeeding).
Juice/chalk, again is not so mysterious...it's simply a surcharge or "rake" applied on each end of the transaction...so for what the book deems a true "coin flip"...you won't get =100/+100....you'll get -110/+110 with 20-cent juice...or -105/+105 with 10-cent juice. Of course books often "bend" the distribution of the surcharge (mayber 7 cnets on one side/3 on the other), if they want to attract bargain hunters on the side of a play that currently is short of takers...etc. etc. etc....
Sorry L&M to divulge all your secret understandings.
Reader's Digest exposition is overComment -
efficient market theory says that the amorphous general "you" can't make a profit on the stock market...but we all know many many examples of specific skilled individuals who do just that...repeatedly
...ditto in sports...GG being a prime example...
fitguy's law:
1. knuckleheads who haven't a clue about bet-sizing relative to their bankroll
2. bitchnmoaning cherry-pickers, and
3. garden-variety jealous assholes
tend to propogate...
a.the more successful it is in terms of units
b.the longer it continues, AND
c. the more attention they get from the non-idiot majority, including (and especially) the OP
hmmmm....maybe "quick on the ignore button" Boon has been right all alongComment -
full title of that, of course is "fitguy's law regarding season-long sport-betting threads"
(I'm done now...exhausted...promise to recede into non-cluttering mode indefinitely)...the professorComment -
well let's make a distinction here. if you ONLY buy and never short you will make money over the long run. but that is far different from beating the market which is what we have to do in sports betting. the % of people that can beat the market return long term? probably something in the area of .01%. the ones who can are an EXTREME minority.
an analogy to sports betting is beating the stock market, not simply making money by buying stocks. i'm surprised that you failed to make this distinction the first time around
so you think that it's possible for someone to be BETTER at predicting games purely based on looking at some info and picking a side versus pinnacle's computers and a highly efficient market? you seem smart enough to realize how absurd this is...ditto in sports...GG being a prime example...Comment -
actually an even more accurate analogy would be(lets assume long term market return of 7%) that you have to be gaining over 9% a year to be profitableComment -
Lord & Master is a ghost we all know...he cannot even make his own picks..fukkn homoComment -
i am lovin Cincy and ZonaComment -
Well, it looks like everyone still hates each other here but at least there is some actual relevant terminology being used instead of sisters ,moms, or farm animals.Comment -
L&M, you're right, stock market not the best example...Much more akin to sport-bettingt is the foreign exchange market is an almost perfectly fluid market--with those going long (buying) and short (selling) is a much better example...most do get fleeced...but there are many specific individuals who buck this fate, and do so repeatedly
sports-betting is simply a "digital" version of the "analog" world of forex trading...you like the phillies tonight (you win or lose)...you like the yen vs. the dollar (it flows continuously...and the player decides the hop on/off points)...sport betting has one advantage tho...size "bet-"(called "position" in forex)sizing is 100% flexible in sports...and very chunky in forex...so the sport bettor doesn't need stop orders cuz the downside is known at the outset...and the sport-bettor can make much more efficient use of his bankroll/war-chest cuz contract sizes aren't huge quantum-jumps as in forex
forex mkts are super efficient, but skilled disciplined practitioners can and do exist...ditto sports-investing only moreso...
And yes, varied-unit cappers results are inflated relative to flat bettors...but i posted out several pages ago that even if you played GG's the way i do with "super-chicken" one-fifth-of-a-percent units...350 units is still 70%...in three freaking months...bumpy ride...damn sure (so it is with a good forex trader)...GG is the real deal among varied-stake/or flat-stake bettors...
let me close with a simple direct quotation that captures the essence of suburban "Larry, Moe, and Curly" on the one hand, and GG, on the other.
"Any jackass can kick at a barn door...it takes a carpenter to build one!!!"
(game set and match...i'm outa here)Comment -
Good luck today GG great hit on FLA last night!Comment -
liking the dialog between l and m and fitguy its nice to see something sports betting related being discussed hereComment -
Greek, you got any Round Robins you like for the night? The card tonight is ugly as sin but still lets make money.Comment
and this is why the books will always be in business
