Opening game home favorite chase, 246-7 last year

**oklahoma** · 07-20-11, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by jcygts6

I hope Florida loses 20-0 so they play harder tomorrow.

i sure hope your right about that. Marlins are 3-0 this year and 2-0 last year after losing a game by 10 or more. and Padres are 1-3 in 2010 after winning a game by 10 or more. anything to help us sleep at night right?

**jcygts6** · 07-20-11, 08:28 PM

Nice stat Oklahoma.... Will be taking the fish tomorrow but won't go crazy on them. I remember padres got hot in the 2nd half of last year.

**on3** · 07-20-11, 11:19 PM

0-1
this one hurt.

System record 124-3*
*BOS (C) vs. tampa bay bet still pending (will be played 8/16)

units: +44

Game 1 win = 72 (56 losses)
Game 2 win = 36 (20 losses)
Game 3 win = 16 (3 losses)
SU record (no chase) = 124-79

7/21

#128 -- san diego @ FLA -155 (C)

Labby Line

10-15-45-51
60-53-33-63
13-13-x-50

FLA to win 63

**mantorras77** · 07-21-11, 10:46 AM

today's line jumped up again!

**jcygts6** · 07-21-11, 11:25 AM

Deja Vu all over again..

**on3** · 07-21-11, 11:57 AM

this has to be the most ridiculous series of the year. line jumps, onslaught of runs by the road team that is 29th in the league in runs scored, and a home team that came in winning 4 out of 5 with an average of 6.2 runs/game.

that's why it's called gambling. if this one loses, sorry fellas.

**G's pks** · 07-21-11, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by on3

this has to be the most ridiculous series of the year. line jumps, onslaught of runs by the road team that is 29th in the league in runs scored, and a home team that came in winning 4 out of 5 with an average of 6.2 runs/game.

that's why it's called gambling. if this one loses, sorry fellas.

But seriously those stats have nothing to do with your picks... just the odds themself...

Because than you would have to remember SD has with combined stats around the 4th best pitching staff in all of baseball Florida 18th...

Amd as pitiful as SD is hitting wise ranked in the bottom ten in most categories in hitting...guess who is just a few spots better also ranked in the bottom 10...yeah Florida...so a stat comparison might not be the best idea...

You still have a shot...(maybe the rain delay will wake a few Marlins up by mistake)but playing crappie teams this time of year you never know what is going to happen...just something I always pass on... Lots of game left...maybe they will wake up and play better for you who knows when you have two teams that are so far out of it...and both stink...

Pulling for you guys GL...

**jcygts6** · 07-21-11, 04:18 PM

I think the system was due for a loss.. Think there is a loss every 20-25 series.

**DANO74** · 07-21-11, 04:50 PM

SD all the sudden became great hitters in this series.AMAZING.

**jphil** · 07-21-11, 05:13 PM

A past 'therizz' quote:

I am considering dropping plays that open at -145 or higher but do not stay above -140??? Especially when there is a reverse line movement where covers shows 60% on ATL and there line is dropping.

-Or also the lines remaining as stable as possible throughout the day while still remaining >-145 close to gametime (again, as long as it OPENED @ >-145).

-He's seemed to have done alright so far w/ just the opening line plays though.

**gofightingirish** · 07-21-11, 06:56 PM

tough break today.....fighting fish never seemed to have a chance or they do not care....did not go crazy today but a bite outta the BT nonetheless......

**gofightingirish** · 07-21-11, 07:16 PM

tomorrow possibilities are diamondbacks, phils, dodgers, yankees, rangers, and YIKES the Cubs.....

**oklahoma** · 07-21-11, 07:30 PM

well its obvious now that playing teams that dont open at -145 isnt the best of ideas. the gambler in us took over this time. and the few series before this

. still lots of baseball to be played and many more chances to make up the loss. and theres 6 series that start tomorrow, so bol to us.

**dlunc3** · 07-21-11, 07:36 PM

never played this system prior to this year and have done 0 backtesting, but I wonder what it would look like if we took sub .500 teams out of the equation? or even last place teams? anyone have on record the losses from this year and the losses from last year as well?

**gofightingirish** · 07-21-11, 08:17 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

never played this system prior to this year and have done 0 backtesting, but I wonder what it would look like if we took sub .500 teams out of the equation? or even last place teams? anyone have on record the losses from this year and the losses from last year as well?

very good points dlunc......I think we were in a bad spot with josh johnson being hurt and san diego scored more in this series than they do in a whole month.....thank GOD that we labby line in here and did not take a big hit as with Morrison....not saying this did not hurt

**dlunc3** · 07-21-11, 08:21 PM

What's scary is that two more last place teams may be on our schedule this weekend too..

**on3** · 07-21-11, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

What's scary is that two more last place teams may be on our schedule this weekend too..

i was thinking about a 2nd half filter of playing teams of either +.500 records overall or +.500 records at home in the event they are -.500. thoughts??

**Dollar Bin** · 07-21-11, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by on3

i was thinking about a 2nd half filter of playing teams of either +.500 records overall or +.500 records at home in the event they are -.500. thoughts??

I'll probably implement my own filter for overall + .500 teams in the second half. I willing to drop a few potential winners to eliminate a few losers.

Interested in other people's thoughts.

**oklahoma** · 07-21-11, 09:18 PM

I ran the system through the sdql site and when playing 3game series and not using the over9filter the system record i got was 114-3(including marlins loss). When only playing teams above .500 the system would be 59-1. both systems with almost identical win%. And playing above .500 teams with the Over9filter would result in 20-0.

so the system doesnt really need changing,(unless you guys think of other filters) its just best not to stray away from the teams that dont open at -145.

**gofightingirish** · 07-21-11, 09:20 PM

dont know if this helps....I live in Vegas and bet Phi...Nyy...Az....Tex as they fell in the filter....overnite lines for cubs and dodgers are below 145.......does this help?

**merikson** · 07-21-11, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by Dollar Bin

I'll probably implement my own filter for overall + .500 teams in the second half. I willing to drop a few potential winners to eliminate a few losers.

Interested in other people's thoughts.

I agree that a .500 filter be put in place. My guess, without backtesting says it will save a loss more times than not.

**merikson** · 07-21-11, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by merikson

I agree that a .500 filter be put in place. My guess, without backtesting says it will save a loss more times than not.

oklahoma's excellent research changes my opinion.....more plays the merrier.....if it won't change our results much.

**jphil** · 07-21-11, 09:55 PM

Originally posted by oklahoma

I ran the system through the sdql site and when playing 3game series and not using the over9filter the system record i got was 114-3(including marlins loss). When only playing teams above .500 the system would be 59-1. both systems with almost identical win%. And playing above .500 teams with the Over9filter would result in 20-0.

so the system doesnt really need changing,(unless you guys think of other filters) its just best not to stray away from the teams that dont open at -145.

was your testing for this yr. only?

**on3** · 07-21-11, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by oklahoma

I ran the system through the sdql site and when playing 3game series and not using the over9filter the system record i got was 114-3(including marlins loss). When only playing teams above .500 the system would be 59-1. both systems with almost identical win%. And playing above .500 teams with the Over9filter would result in 20-0.

so the system doesnt really need changing,(unless you guys think of other filters) its just best not to stray away from the teams that dont open at -145.

hey oklahoma, what if you run it for last year and possibly the year before and see what the difference is for the whole season and then see what the difference is for 1st half of the season without a .500 filter and the 2nd half of the season with a .500 filter?

**oklahoma** · 07-21-11, 10:29 PM

playing teams over 500 without the over9 filter
2011 2010 2009
59-2 157-7 124-10

playing teams over 500 without the over9 filter, splitting seasons in half(apr,may,jun/jul,aug,sep,oct)
2011 2010 2009
first
51-2 72-3 42-6

second
8-0 85-4 82-4

**on3** · 07-21-11, 11:11 PM

0-1
time to start a new streak, i think that was almost a 50 series win streak.

System record 124-4*
*BOS (C) vs. tampa bay bet still pending (will be played 8/16)

units: +39

Game 1 win = 72 (56 losses)
Game 2 win = 36 (20 losses)
Game 3 win = 16 (4 losses)
SU record (no chase) = 124-80

7/22

#129 -- san diego @ PHI -185 (A) o/u 7.5
#130 -- colorado @ ARI -168 (A) o/u 8.5
#131 -- oakland @ NYY -160 (A) o/u 9
#132 -- toronto @ TEX -182 (A) o/u 10

Labby Line

40-45-45-41
60-53-33-63
13-13-50-50

PHI to win 41
ARI to win 40
TEX to win 45
NYY to win 45

**Richta Bean** · 07-21-11, 11:13 PM

thanks for the backtests oklahoma rough stuff with the marlins loss

**oklahoma** · 07-21-11, 11:22 PM

so it looks like the second half does better when playing teams over 500. but it also looks like we're due for 6 more losses based on 2010 and 2009. playing this way and we still have 4 games tomorrow, so bol

**Dollar Bin** · 07-22-11, 05:33 AM

Originally posted by oklahoma

so it looks like the second half does better when playing teams over 500. but it also looks like we're due for 6 more losses based on 2010 and 2009. playing this way and we still have 4 games tomorrow, so bol

Looks good to me. Good luck everyone!

**madmiek** · 07-22-11, 05:34 PM

Keep your head up fellas! there is still almost the entire second half of the season to be played.. BOL!

**therizz** · 07-22-11, 06:03 PM

I set this system up based on the belief that the odds makers are smarter than I am and that using these opening game criteria would help to select good teams to chase. I am always leery of series where the public drives the lines way up, which is why I switched to just opening lines this year. That being said, I backtested this both ways for 4-5 years or so and the results were about the same as far as wins and losses. However, the key to this system's success lies in the use of the labby and winning percentages at the three levels of plays that allow us to cross off lines quickly and make profits. Game 1's have killed us this year vs. last year. This has been the biggest problem this year. Lets hope we have a sweep tonight

**SUPEREAGLE43** · 07-22-11, 08:40 PM

If you win an amount in excess of your labby line 1 total, do you guys use the excess to trim down line 2 and 3, or do you just let them take care of themselves over time?

**on3** · 07-23-11, 01:53 AM

3-1

System record 127-4*
*BOS (C) vs. tampa bay bet still pending (will be played 8/16)

units: +42

Game 1 win = 75 (57 losses)
Game 2 win = 36 (20 losses)
Game 3 win = 16 (4 losses)
SU record (no chase) = 127-81

7/23

#130 -- colorado @ ARI -146 (B)

Labby Line

40-x-x-35
60-53-68-63
13-13-50-50

ARI to win 63

**on3** · 07-24-11, 12:58 AM

1-0

System record 128-4*
*BOS (C) vs. tampa bay bet still pending (will be played 8/16)

units: +45

Game 1 win = 75 (57 losses)
Game 2 win = 37 (20 losses)
Game 3 win = 16 (4 losses)
SU record (no chase) = 128-81

7/24

no plays

Labby Line

40-x-x-35
60-53-68-x
13-13-50-50

**G's pks** · 07-24-11, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by therizz

I set this system up based on the belief that the odds makers are smarter than I am and that using these opening game criteria would help to select good teams to chase. I am always leery of series where the public drives the lines way up, which is why I switched to just opening lines this year. That being said, I backtested this both ways for 4-5 years or so and the results were about the same as far as wins and losses. However, the key to this system's success lies in the use of the labby and winning percentages at the three levels of plays that allow us to cross off lines quickly and make profits. Game 1's have killed us this year vs. last year. This has been the biggest problem this year. Lets hope we have a sweep tonight

Maybe I am misreading this..if so excuse me...if not...variations of the chase have been around forever...

The version it seems you are saying you "set up" has been around forever. Back in the 70's a friend of mine introduced me to chasing... The version used here which is one of the most basic...was used back then by several people I knew. A guy that went by the name "Red" was the first one I saw using it. I actually lost over 30 units on a series back then when the brewers were still in the AL playing Texas...

Since then...I have modified worked with many versions of chases... just wanted to clarify what you are saying here..hopefully you are not claiming to have invented this version...