I swear. Time and time again since I have followed this system, the teams that this system are on cant get the key hits with runners on. Its snakebit. Angels just had bases loaded only to see the pitcher come up with 2 out without a chance in hell to get a hit. They should do away with this interleague junk. When this system starts having any luck at all, you guys are gonna roll!
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nice third inning so far angels.....lets clean this up......good luck to everyone
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The way I stated it was add a unit to each new series that wallco starts. As stated before if he has 3 series and on those 3 series A B C all lose but all 3 D bets win you will go 3 wins 9 losses. By the time you get the money back that you lost using labby, wallco will be way ahead of you +3 units. Where as if your using 1 line your betting to win 1 unit correct? I'm not saying start with 3 units on the line, just add 1 unit for each new series.
I understand you will make back all the money you lost for the series and all the money you lost on a "series loss A B C D" and still make up that 1 unit, but it may take a while. I just think you could show a great profit by adding a little bit to your line for each new series. You will well surpass wallco's season profit doing this. It does not have to be a full unit, it could be a 1/2 a unit.
make sense?
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As for "icebets theory" he posted an excel sheet with all the math i believe at beginning of this month. I am unsure of the date, but you would have to go back and look. he posted probably about 6 excel sheets with all different methods.
1) Traditional labby method (worked)
2) Traditional labby method averaging the lines individually (worked)
3) 3 strike labby (worked)
4) 4 strike labby (worked)
5) Global averaging; thats when you average all the lines together & add a unit to each of the cleared lines (Failed)
The 4 strike labby showed the most profit for obvious reasons. Clearing 4#s and only adding 1.
Go through your excel sheets for the plays you have made so far and test the different methods. I can assure you averaging all the lines together, method #5, will be the worst one and is likely to fail. I use to do this and lost about 20 units before i figured out it wasn't going to work. IceBet actually showed me what i was doing wrong. Stick with Single line (individually) averaging. If you do not want to take my word for it, set up a string of wins and losses and see how that works out for you.
--jmd
PS: Angels need to pick up the slack right now.
Alright maybe ill be back on tonight, but most likely not until tomorrow. Ill try to answer whatever questions i have tomorrow about any future post. If someone could go back through the thread and find where ICeBet posted the spread sheets, it would save this thread a lot of clutter cause then we can just refer to those post #s.
Thanks again ICeBet.Comment -
D bet should be interesting with Baltimore versus Cin. on Friday night........I sure we wont be sweating......no offense Wallco....very light sarcasm.....
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Thanks JM. I will take your word for it because I have approached the problems that global presents, but always cleared before I got too deep. Makes sense now that I think about it more. Also, we are all here to help each other. I dont think most have a problem with this sort of clutter because its educational. Its the bickering and food pics that piss people off.Comment -
talk about a nail biter?
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@JMD
The way my labby was set up was not 1 unit per line, it is 2 units per line. I was using a traditional labby but dividing losses like a 4 strike. Is that still not enough? Not sure if you mean to create a new line or to add in a unit to my existing 2 lines for that extra unit per series. But my labby works like 5-5-5-5 (5+5=10)(5+5=10) - 2 units per line, 2 lines.
If you or someone else can clarify this for me it would be appreciated! Thanks!Comment -
Wouldnt you know it, one of only 2 offensive threats for the Angels in Torii Hunter goes down with injury.
OK, changing from negative energy to positive energy. Thats what is missing here! Lets go Angels! Two innings to get 2 runs. I fully expect it to happen.Comment -
This is gonna get done tonight! I feel it! We've got 2 runs to go with the top of the lineup to get it! The perfect scenario is playing out in our favor! Finally, something is going in our favor.
Oh well, another 1/2 run loss for the system, seems like we have had a million of em lately. When this thing turns around it should blow the roof off, but until then I hope everyone survives.Comment -
3 D bets on the horizon.
hopefully they end the same way as texas the other night, bol tomorrow
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I know the system calls for the -1.5 rl.. but why not just play the ml on games like tonight when the juice isnt bad at all? just thinking out loud... im sure the system will take care of things on the D bet best of luck
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Winning 3 D bets is going to be tough.Comment -
Wow another 3 D bets to clearComment -
Wallco MLB PLU$$$
2011 System to date: 106-7
System profit/loss: +25.07 units (finished series)
Since my first post: +4.80 units (91-7) (fin. series)
Current open series: 3 (-22.04 units)
(6/22/11) Baltimore (M/L) (C) – Loss
(6/22/11) Baltimore (-1½) (C) – Loss
(6/22/11) L.A. Angels (-1½) (C) – Loss
(A) 58-58
(B) 25-33
(C) 14-19
(D) 9-7
There are no system plays for (6/23/11)Comment -
Answering the question, these are exactly the options. Creating a new line is allowing yourself more time to clear (safer approach) and adding a unit (or units) to an existing line helps you clear faster with heavier individual bets. It's entirely up to you how you want to tackle this, it will always work and you will make money (if the picks are good
), it's just a matter of how long will it take to clear the lines and how much money you want to put in play. The classic labby approach which you are using at the moment (loss adds a #, win crosses two #'s off) is the safest as it doesn't put as much money in play as the 3- or 4-strike approach.
I use 4-strike lines and keep to two rules: never spread the losses through all lines and #'s (no global averaging) and never change the total of #'s on the lines (loss adds a #, win crosses four off). A starting line consists of four #'s, so the total amount on the starting line is my expected unit won. I have six lines (which is six units to be won) and I assign C and D bets to the lines with the most #'s (to collect more on plus money and because C and D have a better strike rate). My unit was 1.2% of bankroll at first, but since I started playing different systems at the same time and putting more money in play, I took the unit size down to 0.7%. When I clear all six lines, I expect to have a 4.2% roi on my roll plus the gain from the +money bets plus the additional units put on the lines in case new series start. The success depends on the system performing and there's still so much baseball to be played! We can still lose it all (hopefully, not).
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There is nothing to say you can't do that but remember you will lose more money if they lose the game and win less when it hits. That's the trade off. I have actually done it a few times and it is nice when they win but sucks if they lose. Again the real success to Wallco's system is the + odds. I still think a lot of people don't get that based on some of the comments I read here. What I have started to do is "guard" myself on some of the C and D bets by doing a -1RL bet. I first determine what would be the pay out if I just did my normal -1.5 bet and then take that number and make my -1RL bet. I risk a little bit more but last night I got a push and now have less risk in the D bet. If it won I would have won the same amount as my normal C bet. Again the bigger risk for me was if LAA lost the game I would have lost more money than if I just stuck with the units for a -1.5 RL wager.Comment -
JM MLB System
2011 Official season series record 11-1 (v1)
(A) 8-4
(B) 2-2
(C) 1-1
V2 plays 2-1
V3 system 2-1
Unofficial series 8-0
Upcoming Plays
(7/01/2011) Cincinnati v Cleveland
(7/01/2011) San Diego @ Seattle
Notes: Out of 4 possible sweeps yesterday there was 1 and it will be no future play. There are 3 possible sweeps today. I finally got an email from Morrison yesterday. He's "shocked" that I haven't purchased his wnba system yet. He offered me a huge $10 discount for only 24 hrs. After that it will never be offered again at that low of a price. He's never done anything like this before. I wrote back and told him he wasn't trying hard enough. I'll mark that as 1 on the over/under for solicited emails before the next system bet. Man are we having an exciting year or what ? The JM system plays just keep coming, one after another. GL allComment -
To be sure I understand correctly - if my lines are:Answering the question, these are exactly the options. Creating a new line is allowing yourself more time to clear (safer approach) and adding a unit (or units) to an existing line helps you clear faster with heavier individual bets. It's entirely up to you how you want to tackle this, it will always work and you will make money (if the picks are good), it's just a matter of how long will it take to clear the lines and how much money you want to put in play. The classic labby approach which you are using at the moment (loss adds a #, win crosses two #'s off) is the safest as it doesn't put as much money in play as the 3- or 4-strike approach.
I use 4-strike lines and keep to two rules: never spread the losses through all lines and #'s (no global averaging) and never change the total of #'s on the lines (loss adds a #, win crosses four off). A starting line consists of four #'s, so the total amount on the starting line is my expected unit won. I have six lines (which is five units to be won) and I assign C and D bets to the lines with the most #'s (to collect more on plus money and because C and D have a better strike rate). My unit was 1.2% of bankroll at first, but since I started playing different systems at the same time and putting more money in play, I took the unit size down to 0.7%. When I clear all six lines, I expect to have a 4.2% roi on my roll plus the gain from the +money bets plus the additional units put on the lines in case new series start. The success depends on the system performing and there's still so much baseball to be played! We can still lose it all (hopefully, not).
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5
and let's say that day there's a new A bet for Wallco, because of this new series I should add a unit to my lines, so I do
5-5-5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5
Or just add a third line of 2 5s...is this correct? And is this necessary when you have 2 units to win per line instead of only one? I think JMD thought I only had 1 unit to gain per line, 2 total, instead of 4 total.
???
Thanks for helping me out Pagodo, and JMD, much appreciated and I'm sure a lot of other people can benefit from the information.Comment -
I would suggest to flush the Hoodini numbers (or all lines) and put them in "overflow". This way you can start with "fresh" smaller lines and add 1 number to the total of your lines and divide by 4 every time you start a new line.
Example:
Overflow = 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 ......
New Line = 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 = 4 ==> Add 1 Number From Overflow: 4 + 5 = 9 ==> Divide By Strike Method (4) And New Line Is:
2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25
Continue that until you clear your overflow and go back to normal new lines.
My 2 Cents,
IceBetComment -
Keep in mind with using a labby and a 4 game chase system that if every game went to D (I know it doesn't) but that would be 1 win in 4 games or 25% win ratio. This is why 2 strike labby players are having a hard time using that on Wallco's system as C and D are quite common.
IceBetComment -
That is my old labby talking, I planned on starting a new method from scratch after the open series finish. The way my method above works should win 51.5% on Line 1 and 49.5% on Line 2, based on the 5 year sample. More than what the labby needs to clear I believe. However I'm glad you responded as I wanted to ask you what your labby set up is for this system, if you are playing it? I had thought about doing a 4 strike labby on 4 lines which is being suggested here, but my method seemed a lot easier and still produces good clearing results (my way was to use a 2 line labby, A/C for Line 1 and B/D for Line 2, for every loss I would add a number slot to the end and average out the line individually).
Thanks for any help you provide!Comment -
Look at Icebet's post just below yours, thelimit
He's giving an example of putting overflow back in current labby lines, that is exactly how you add units to the lines. Choose a line, figure out the amount and spread it through the #'s on that line.
Never add #'s to an existing line, because you make that line harder to clear. With every system I play several lines and I don't mind, so when asked, I would always tell you to add a line with a new unit (not really the way to go either, slows you down), but I have the least experience of all the guys who post here and I'm still testing/backtesting and analyzing options.
These would be your options when adding a unit:
this is the way to go >> add a unit to a line
Your lines before new series start:
9-9-9-9-9-9
7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5
let's say line 2 (adding $10 unit):
9-9-9-9-9-9
10-10-10-10
optional: create a new line
Your lines before new series start:
9-9-9-9-9-9
7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5
new $10 unit, new line:
9-9-9-9-9-9
7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5
5-5
The more lines you have, the longer it obviously takes to clear. I decided to not go for more than six lines, so if I have seven bets pending, I play two bets on one line.
Enjoying the discussion
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Ah! I see what you mean now, divide it through. I'm not sure if I'd be comfortable dividing through another whole unit especially after the line is a little inflated. I can't see myself putting on more than 1 extra unit per line too, if i add a unit every new series i'd be wagering huge amounts and my lines could triple very easily, seeing as there are days with 7 A bets. Not sure how that ends up being a practical method? Maybe half a unit on new series days or something.
Thanks for the response, I enjoy the discussion too! All this information and learning is a nice break from pictures of sandwhiches and bickering
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I concur with everything that IceBet has responded to so far.
Thelimit3010 i think you missunderstood the point a little bit again.
Labby line: 5 5 5 5
I understand with traditional 2 strike labby that its fine to start with 2 units on the line. i was suggesting starting with 1 unit on the line for the 4 strike method. Either way your first bet will be the same for the 2 methods.
When you are using wallco's sstem with traditional 2 strike labby method, do not add extra #s to the line to avoid making bigger bets. This is what you would be doing with how you explained it.
If your line is 5 5 5 5 and you lose (2 strike method) -10 then your new line is
5 5 5 5 10, DO NOT!!! DO NOT bring that $10 loss down into a new line of 5 5. At 50% win rate that means you will be adding 2#s when lose and crossing off 2 #s when you win. You will just be losing money long run due to Juice or hoping for a heater.
As Icebet described you can bring that # down as 1# if you like and treat it as an "over flow pool." Which is similar how you were doing your labby before where you start with 4 #s if you lose keep the same 4#s and divide that loss over those 4 #s.
For example your previous labby method:
5 5 5 5 Loss - $10
new line: 7.5 / 7.5 / 7.5 / 7.5
Traditional labby method
5 5 5 5 Loss - $10
new line: 5 5 5 5 10
4 strike method:
2.5 / 2.5 / 2.5 / 2.5 *note the unit size is still the same. Both bets are trying to win $10. Just one method bets 4#s other one bets 2 #s. One starts with 2 units on the line, other one starts with 1 unit on the line. Its just have a series of losses where the 4 strike method comes in handy.
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I suggested adding a unit to the line (diviiding among the #s)
*adding a unit to the line is way different then adding a unit as a # to the line.
if your line is 5 5 5 5 and you are on your D bet, say D bet loses ($10)
your new line is 5 5 5 5 10, however wallco is on a new series. For the next series to start add another $10 to the line.
5 5 5 5 10 becomes 7 7 7 7 12.
Or if you average that out it becomes 8 8 8 8 8
Notice i added a unit to the line, but the line stayed at five (5) #s. That is what i meant by adding a unit to the line.
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Quick break down of different methods and lingo:
Individual line averaging: The sum of all #s on one particular line added together then divided by total # on the line. Each # would then Equal that amount.
4 strike Labby: Start with 1 unit per line, bet the first 3 #s and last # on the line.
3 strike labby: bET FIRST 2 #s on the line and last # on the line. Start with 3 #s on your labby line.
2 stirke labby I.E. (traditional labby) Betting fist and last # on the line.
*note individual line averaging can be applied to any of these methods. Its not just part of the 4 strike method. It helps reduce the size of your bets and clears lines at the same rate.
Global averaging: sum of all #s on all your lines divided by Total #s in play. Each # would then equal that amount.
*This is a bad way of using the labby.
*this Global averaging only works if you never replace cleared lines with new units. Basically, just throw global averaging in the trash.
Tip: With wallco's system because it goes to C and D so frequently lower your unit size, yes that includes labby players.
Tip #2: using labby add a unit or even 1/2 a unit to your line (not another # to the line) but divide a unit among the #s already ont he line for each new series.
Tip #3: if you do not want to run multiple lines with this system, then only bet C & D for like 2-3 units using whatever labby method you prefer.
--jmdComment -
optional: create a new line
Your lines before new series start:
9-9-9-9-9-9
7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5
new $10 unit, new line:
9-9-9-9-9-9
7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5
5-5
I didn't know how to quote this individually, but DONT DO THIS!!!! do not start a new line with your loss as 2 #s, espcially when using traditional method. As explained in my previous post if you add #2s when you LOSE, even if its a new line, @ 50% you are adding 2 #s when you lose and crossing off 2 #s when you win. You are hoping for a heater in order to clear your lines.
this way is VERY VERY BAD!!
--JMDComment -
The bet size you are comfortable with is always up to the individual and also a big part of what the indivuduals bankroll is. You could even start with a 1/2 a unit on your 2 strike labby if you want. If your unit size is $10 start with:Ah! I see what you mean now, divide it through. I'm not sure if I'd be comfortable dividing through another whole unit especially after the line is a little inflated. I can't see myself putting on more than 1 extra unit per line too, if i add a unit every new series i'd be wagering huge amounts and my lines could triple very easily, seeing as there are days with 7 A bets. Not sure how that ends up being a practical method? Maybe half a unit on new series days or something.
Thanks for the response, I enjoy the discussion too! All this information and learning is a nice break from pictures of sandwhiches and bickering
1.25 / 1.25 / 1.25 / 1.25
I know this seems really small, but if you add a 1/2 a unit for every series, your labby line will not inflate that much. Sure it may double or even tripple in size, but not likely. Even if it does triple in size, then your labby line will only have 2 units on it correct? Then it becomes no worries.
Because Wallco's system has a lot of losses, but is based on plus odds, it goes to C and D frequently. The labby method in general is hard to use for Wallco's system unless you are running multiple lines.
OH before my advice is taken the wrong way. when i state that people should add 1/2 a unit or even a unit to their line for each new series; I am not talking about if you have 1 labby line and there are 6 series the next day to add 6 units to that one line. I am assuming you are running multiple ines 4-6 lines for this system and just add 1 unit or 1/2 a unit to each line.
--jmd
PS: I have another system that works, but im in the moving process. I would like to start a new thread on it, but im unable to get on the computer as much as i need to. I was wondering if someone wants to help run my thread or keep track of the bets for me. Right now im on my room mates laptop for the time being and I am doing all my labby work on lined paper, so i dont have excel files or anything any more.
If someone could volunteer to help run my thread and keep track of the bets i would greatly appreciate it. The money you make off it, would be my payment to you for running the thread
I'll start a new thread now and post a link when i have it set up. I will rely on you guys though to help me run the thread. Its for people using Labby method.Comment -
Of course, jmd, that's why I said 'optional' and suggested dividing the amount through one line
Whenever I add a unit (or a fraction of a unit) and decide not to spread it through an existing line, I'm putting it in place of an already cleared line. Does work with 3- and 4-strike though, not with traditional.
thelimit, that is true, adding money to already existing lines does inflate them and may look kinda scary (ok, especially with adding six-units worth to two lines), but you can always decide how much you'd like to add, a unit, 0.5x unit or 0.1x unit -- it just makes sense to do it whenever new series come up with that +money to tap on.
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I'd love to take a look at it, jmd!Comment
