John Morrison 2011 MLB

**Wilba** · 06-09-11, 02:07 AM

Originally posted by goodone

Totally agree Wilba, I've got an example of NYM right from the start of this season where they hit 12 straight overs and 1 Push, can't really imagine how to survive a streak like this if you played unders. Unless you would use some kind of stop-loss strategy like stop playing after 3 straight losses and wait untill the trend breaks again.

04/14/11 O 7.5 -103
04/14/11 O 7.5 -107
04/13/11 O 7.5 -107
04/11/11 O 8.5 -105
04/10/11 O 8 110
04/09/11 O 8 111
04/08/11 O 7.5 101
04/07/11 O 7.5 111
04/06/11 O 9.5 114
04/05/11 P 8 -
04/03/11 O 8.5 -105
04/02/11 O 9 -103
04/01/11 O 7 -118

yeah mate that's right, mark my words that every year on average at least 1 streak of 16+ und/over will hit! been there done that and got burnt when I was young and hopeful!

**Wilba** · 06-09-11, 02:09 AM

Originally posted by BetaB

Some people here might as well worship labby as god as a few comment seem to think that any method that can pick out more than 40% pick will win money with Labby. In fact, the most important part in this is pick quality.

Basically, playing -EV on labby is like playing -EV large favorite. For example, a certain wager had 90% winning and @ -1100, probability told us that on average flat bet will lost you money. However, for a short while may be first 8 bets could easily went 8-0 and showing profit but variance will catch up eventually.Where as a +EV say 10% hit rate with 1100 odd might as well lost your money on your first 8 bets but in the long run it will show profit. This is precisely why bookmaker give more juice on long odd bet.

In the case of playing baseball over on labby line, you may be able to stay profitable more the most part but in the long run the juice will kill you. For instance, if you first 60 play went 40w - 20L and then suddenly the next 30 play went 5-25 how would you be able to keep on chasing? Since, 40 win would mean 60 units profit max but 5-25 would be a lot bigger minus.

In summary, anything that can't be profitable with flat bet won't magically become profitable with any chase system in the long run.

very well said and very very true. 50% overall hit rate does not mean 50% hit rate for any given sample. VARIANCE!

**goodone** · 06-09-11, 02:16 AM

Originally posted by Wilba

yeah in my opinion you always need a stopping point. It might not happen for a year, or even 10 years (!), but eventually any infinite chase will come undone when an unbelievable streak occurs which has not been seen before. This is my belief anyway. No matter how small the probability of something happening in sports, it is still always a non zero probability

cant really recommend a particular 'stop point' in general for systems, as it would differ on each system based on the long term win % of each bet type

sorry cant help u more

No problem, that's for me to figure out then

Thanks for the answers mate, it was really helpfull anyway!

**Wilba** · 06-09-11, 02:16 AM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

I'll be the first to agree that pick and system quality comes first. But to be honest none of your points will come into play when playing a system. Only an absolutely TERRIBLE chase system would lose 45 series in 90 plays. Think about it, Wallco's system is supposed to lose series much more than normal and it only averages 10-15 losses per season, and many other systems here like JM lose much less than that.

Unless your playing a system where you make practically 10 bets a day with a 50% or so winning %, only in flat betting would a record look like that. But thanks for the input!

Hey, I think you misunderstood., the 5-25 run was in reference to single bets, not series w/l. If you labby a 5-25 run on single bets you are in a big hole, even if the previous 60 bets went 40-20. What they meant is that even though you are 50% overall (45-45) the 5-25 run will lose you a lot more if you labbyed those 30 picks than they 40-20 run would have made you on a labby

in summary, good plays are good plays whether played as flat bets or labby,
bad plays are bad plays wither played as flat bet or labby

the original post was not talking about a system, just about labbys in general

**Wilba** · 06-09-11, 02:18 AM

Originally posted by ken23lau

I laugh at anyone who jumped ship after the 4 MLB Plu$$ losses. System is back on track

exactly. People are so unbelievable short sighted in this forum. They dont understand the concept of variance and long term profitability (most people anyway)

**pagodo** · 06-09-11, 02:30 AM

That was a sweet

B-day. Thanks, Wallco!
Reminding the doubters and haters, that's one D loss made up already

CC's back on the mound tonight, good news for all of us betting our fortunes on the JM [C] bet.

**BetaB** · 06-09-11, 02:53 AM

Originally posted by Wilba

Hey, I think you misunderstood., the 5-25 run was in reference to single bets, not series w/l. If you labby a 5-25 run on single bets you are in a big hole, even if the previous 60 bets went 40-20. What they meant is that even though you are 50% overall (45-45) the 5-25 run will lose you a lot more if you labbyed those 30 picks than they 40-20 run would have made you on a labby

in summary, good plays are good plays whether played as flat bets or labby,
bad plays are bad plays wither played as flat bet or labby

the original post was not talking about a system, just about labbys in general

Thanks Wilba, that is exactly what i meant.

**goodone** · 06-09-11, 02:53 AM

Originally posted by hagball52

[FONT=verdana] [FONT=verdana]

Notes: Lucky for us moneyline bettors that they lost by 2. The Yanks are favored today and the juice is not too high so it's actually a decent play. And to all of you who got that wild email from JM on his
"champselections" you know I posted his results earlier. He is horrible. His price used to be $500 for a year of picks now it's $2000 dollars a month plus 5% of your winnings. Dang this guy is smoking some good sh*t ! It reminds me of the story of a guy who was being run out of town by it's people and he gets out in front to make it look like a parade. There is no end to the lengths JM will go to. GL all today.[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]

LOL!!!

**Glada Tartan** · 06-09-11, 04:44 AM

Yanks pounded again!

**BigOrangeBrother** · 06-09-11, 05:51 AM

Yanks "C" bet.....gotta have it!!

**Andy3568** · 06-09-11, 05:58 AM

Another example where a series falls out of the system criteria mid-series.

The Red Sox are now the #2 ranked team by RPI. That takes tonight's "C" bet out of range. JM will still count it a bet unless it loses. Then he'll use that as a reason we should not have bet it at all.

**bauerranch** · 06-09-11, 06:14 AM

You noticed that JM did not give his somtimes speech about making fortunes this C bet----

**lawalahmed** · 06-09-11, 07:30 AM

I notice the RPI different from the begining of this serie, that is why i dont jump on board....i will only bet 1 unit tonight bcos if Yankee win JM win count the serie but if Yakees lost he will ask public opinion about it after 2 days he will throw it out....

......Therefore bet with caution..... tonight.....

**Wallco99** · 06-09-11, 08:10 AM

Wallco MLB PLU$$$
2011 System to date: 87-6
System profit/loss: +18.73 units (finished series)
Since my first post: -1.54 units (72-6) (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

(6/8/11) Houston (M/L) (B) – Win
(6/8/11) Boston (M/L) (B) – Win

(A) 46-43
(B) 20-25
(C) 12-13
(D) 7-6

There are no system plays for (6/9/11)

** Do not place any wagers on teams unless the word “Official” appears next to the game. All lines and standings are based on final lines from ScoresandOdds.com. Some of the unofficial plays may change to the other team by game time. Official plays will not change. Keep checking for updated posts until all games are marked “official”. If your book is offering (+1½) on the (-1½) plays above, buy the alternate line for (-1½) on the team I have listed at (-1½), not the other team. NEVER PLAY (+1½) LINE ON ANY GAME IN THIS SYSTEM.
System backtest can be found in post #3446.

**GoGooners** · 06-09-11, 08:19 AM

Noooooooo it's a No play night today. Any chance we have a 10 plays day on the horizon wallco? Can feel the start of a great run again. thanks for the plays!

**thelimit0310** · 06-09-11, 08:31 AM

No plays for Wallco and a C bet for JM! Would be terrible for the followers to have a C bet loss so early on, but it could very well happen. The system loses on average 1 or 2 times per season. Still, let's be optimistic and cash this C bet tonight!

**Wallco99** · 06-09-11, 08:34 AM

Am I mistaken, or is Detroit also a JM play tonight?

**thelimit0310** · 06-09-11, 08:37 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Am I mistaken, or is Detroit also a JM play tonight?

I received an official email this morning and the link only showed the Yankees as a play tonight. Detroit may have not passed a filter or has not met some other official criteria. Or JM could have screwed up, wouldn't be the first time.

**020NE** · 06-09-11, 08:45 AM

JM just emailed that Detroit will be an "A" bet for today.

**hagball52** · 06-09-11, 08:45 AM

JM MLB System

2011 Official season series record 9-0 (v1) (1 series pending)
(A) 6-4
(B) 2-2
(C) 1-0
V2 plays 1-0
V3 system 1-1
Unofficial series 6-0

Official
(6/08/2011) NY Yankees (.521) v Boston (.523) M/L (B) Loss

Next Plays
Official
(6/09/2011) NY Yankees (.520) v Boston (.525) M/L (C)
(6/09/2011) Detroit (.514) v Seattle (.499) M/L (A) ( 6/10 (B), 6/11 (C) & 6/12 (D) if necessary)

Upcoming Plays
(6/14/2011) Detroit v Cleveland
(6/14/2011) Arizona v San Francisco

Notes: I haven't received an outlandish email from the "champ" making a wild proclamation. I'm sure it will come. Well, we got us a (C) bet, let's hope it cashes. The Yanks can't seem to pitch lately, hopefully they'll get it turned around today. There were 5 possible sweeps yesterday and we got 2. I'll post upcoming at the bottom. There are 3 possible sweeps today. Also on 6/13 we need to track the DET/TAM game because it's a continuation of a series from a rainout and DET is 2-0 in the series. Today the juice is really high (-200) in the Detroit game. It's +110 runline if you decide to play it that way. I'll be at work later so when the JM email comes in would someone please put it up. He's probably praying for a rain delay so he can cancel the series. GL all today.
Future plays from sweeps:
OAK v BAL (8/15)
LAA v TAM No rematch

**thelimit0310** · 06-09-11, 08:46 AM

Speak of the Devil! JM has just sent out another email adding Detroit to the table today! So NYY (C) and Detroit (A) are todays plays, though I'm sure hagball will post them a little more officially then me :P

**Wallco99** · 06-09-11, 08:46 AM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

I received an official email this morning and the link only showed the Yankees as a play tonight. Detroit may have not passed a filter or has not met some other official criteria. Or JM could have screwed up, wouldn't be the first time.

I'll wait for Hagball's post. Thanks.

**thelimit0310** · 06-09-11, 08:48 AM

@Hagball, his email was nothing special, like you said no outlandish claims or the such. He sent out 2 emails, the latter one correctly adding Detroit to todays games, the link brings up this:

John Morrison's Sports Betting Champ System Official System Pick(s)
6/9 New York Yankees [C]
Boston Red Sox

6/9 Detroit Tigers [A]
Seattle Mariners

**BetaB** · 06-09-11, 08:50 AM

hey guys, i's been lurking around this thread for a while now and it's seem that many of you have great knowledge on money management and system plays. It would be very kind of you if anyone could lend me a hand on managing labby lines. Think is i got a thread running here on baseball forum for about 2 weeks and but recently i included an additional play on labby and although it went well, i can seem to manage mine lines properly. As you can see in the thread here http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...og-2011-a.html i had 8 labby line running at once and for some reason my streak will keep getting bigger everyday unless i got a sweep. Surely, this is not the right way to do it.

Note: My general idea on having so many labby lines is to avoid a huge losing streak wipe out my entire BR. E.g. 8 straight lose would not cost me too much since they will be spread out over 8 lines and besides you hardly get a baseball game to end before another start.

Thank You in advance

**alexknyc** · 06-09-11, 08:56 AM

The juice on Detroit at BetUS is -230. I'd have to risk more than my B bet to win the A bet. Doesn't seem like a good play for me so I'll pass.

**hagball52** · 06-09-11, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

@Hagball, his email was nothing special, like you said no outlandish claims or the such. He sent out 2 emails, the latter one correctly adding Detroit to todays games, the link brings up this:

John Morrison's Sports Betting Champ System Official System Pick(s)
6/9 New York Yankees [C]
Boston Red Sox

6/9 Detroit Tigers [A]
Seattle Mariners

Yeah if he's not jumping up and down and boldly proclaiming a win on the (C) bet then he doesn't feel warm and fuzzy about it. I just got an email from him. Only got one but it had both plays. Play that Yankee game with caution today. And to whoever mentioned BOS being #2 in the rpi you're probably right about him scratching it if it loses. All that being said I will play the (C) bet today. I started it softly from the (A) bet so I don't have a lot out on it. The Yanks have lost 5 in a row to the Sox at home. Something's gotta give.

**BigBlue77** · 06-09-11, 09:17 AM

Originally posted by alexknyc

The juice on Detroit at BetUS is -230. I'd have to risk more than my B bet to win the A bet. Doesn't seem like a good play for me so I'll pass.

Bet it -1.5 RL at around +110. Ill bet half of what I normally do for A bets and if Detroit ends up winning by 1 run I could handle a small loss. Plenty of more series to bet on after.

**thelimit0310** · 06-09-11, 10:30 AM

Eh, I think i'll pass on todays plays too. I didn't play too hard on NYY so I can afford it, but I'd rather not place it. The Sox have torn them up 5 games now. Detroit is over -200 and I'm not going to play outside the system rules, it makes me uncomfortable. Think I'll just kick back and relax today and pick it up tomorrow.

To all of you that placed wagers today, best of luck!

**Wallco99** · 06-09-11, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

Eh, I think i'll pass on todays plays too. I didn't play too hard on NYY so I can afford it, but I'd rather not place it. The Sox have torn them up 5 games now. Detroit is over -200 and I'm not going to play outside the system rules, it makes me uncomfortable. Think I'll just kick back and relax today and pick it up tomorrow.

To all of you that placed wagers today, best of luck!

Took Yanks -1 1/2 +171 and Detroit -1 1/2 +115. Been playing this way all season, so far only 1 loss. However, even with that loss I am 1.1 units ahead of JM traditional method betting this way, and I skipped two of the bets, both would have won. +money bets is where I live. I can afford the loss if it happens, and if an actual loss happens, I will recoup much much faster. Never have more than 7 total units on any series, unless runline odds become negative, or both teams are -105....

**hagball52** · 06-09-11, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

Eh, I think i'll pass on todays plays too. I didn't play too hard on NYY so I can afford it, but I'd rather not place it. The Sox have torn them up 5 games now. Detroit is over -200 and I'm not going to play outside the system rules, it makes me uncomfortable. Think I'll just kick back and relax today and pick it up tomorrow.

To all of you that placed wagers today, best of luck!

I did step outside the rules. I parlayed NYY and DET and I played DET -1 1/2.
Could lose both could win both but either way I'll survive and move on.

**GGPLAYER** · 06-09-11, 11:01 AM

Yanks moneyline is sky rocketing. Not sure if it is a good sign or not.

**oklahoma** · 06-09-11, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

Yanks moneyline is sky rocketing. Not sure if it is a good sign or not.

prob based solely on the same reason we're betting them. will the public favorite yanks really get swept twice in a row?

**thelimit0310** · 06-09-11, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Took Yanks -1 1/2 +171 and Detroit -1 1/2 +115. Been playing this way all season, so far only 1 loss. However, even with that loss I am 1.1 units ahead of JM traditional method betting this way, and I skipped two of the bets, both would have won. +money bets is where I live. I can afford the loss if it happens, and if an actual loss happens, I will recoup much much faster. Never have more than 7 total units on any series, unless runline odds become negative, or both teams are -105....

good idea, i actually took them both like this after I thought about it. now i'm considering playing the system this way as an alternative if the lines get too big. thanks

**esaldivar** · 06-09-11, 12:53 PM

hey h00dini is there a play for today?

thanks bro

**BCC585** · 06-09-11, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by esaldivar

hey h00dini is there a play for today?

thanks bro

nope, there is a play tomorrow.