John Morrison 2011 MLB

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  • Wilba
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-29-10
    • 702

    #5216
    Originally posted by goodone
    Totally agree Wilba, I've got an example of NYM right from the start of this season where they hit 12 straight overs and 1 Push, can't really imagine how to survive a streak like this if you played unders. Unless you would use some kind of stop-loss strategy like stop playing after 3 straight losses and wait untill the trend breaks again.
    04/14/11 O 7.5 -103
    04/14/11 O 7.5 -107
    04/13/11 O 7.5 -107
    04/11/11 O 8.5 -105
    04/10/11 O 8 110
    04/09/11 O 8 111

    04/08/11 O 7.5 101
    04/07/11 O 7.5 111
    04/06/11 O 9.5 114

    04/05/11 P 8 -
    04/03/11 O 8.5 -105
    04/02/11 O 9 -103
    04/01/11 O 7 -118
    yeah mate that's right, mark my words that every year on average at least 1 streak of 16+ und/over will hit! been there done that and got burnt when I was young and hopeful!
    Comment
    • Wilba
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-29-10
      • 702

      #5217
      Originally posted by BetaB
      Some people here might as well worship labby as god as a few comment seem to think that any method that can pick out more than 40% pick will win money with Labby. In fact, the most important part in this is pick quality.

      Basically, playing -EV on labby is like playing -EV large favorite. For example, a certain wager had 90% winning and @ -1100, probability told us that on average flat bet will lost you money. However, for a short while may be first 8 bets could easily went 8-0 and showing profit but variance will catch up eventually.Where as a +EV say 10% hit rate with 1100 odd might as well lost your money on your first 8 bets but in the long run it will show profit. This is precisely why bookmaker give more juice on long odd bet.

      In the case of playing baseball over on labby line, you may be able to stay profitable more the most part but in the long run the juice will kill you. For instance, if you first 60 play went 40w - 20L and then suddenly the next 30 play went 5-25 how would you be able to keep on chasing? Since, 40 win would mean 60 units profit max but 5-25 would be a lot bigger minus.

      In summary, anything that can't be profitable with flat bet won't magically become profitable with any chase system in the long run.
      very well said and very very true. 50% overall hit rate does not mean 50% hit rate for any given sample. VARIANCE!
      Comment
      • goodone
        SBR Hustler
        • 05-15-11
        • 60

        #5218
        Originally posted by Wilba
        yeah in my opinion you always need a stopping point. It might not happen for a year, or even 10 years (!), but eventually any infinite chase will come undone when an unbelievable streak occurs which has not been seen before. This is my belief anyway. No matter how small the probability of something happening in sports, it is still always a non zero probability

        cant really recommend a particular 'stop point' in general for systems, as it would differ on each system based on the long term win % of each bet type

        sorry cant help u more
        No problem, that's for me to figure out then Thanks for the answers mate, it was really helpfull anyway!
        Comment
        • Wilba
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 10-29-10
          • 702

          #5219
          Originally posted by thelimit0310
          I'll be the first to agree that pick and system quality comes first. But to be honest none of your points will come into play when playing a system. Only an absolutely TERRIBLE chase system would lose 45 series in 90 plays. Think about it, Wallco's system is supposed to lose series much more than normal and it only averages 10-15 losses per season, and many other systems here like JM lose much less than that.

          Unless your playing a system where you make practically 10 bets a day with a 50% or so winning %, only in flat betting would a record look like that. But thanks for the input!
          Hey, I think you misunderstood., the 5-25 run was in reference to single bets, not series w/l. If you labby a 5-25 run on single bets you are in a big hole, even if the previous 60 bets went 40-20. What they meant is that even though you are 50% overall (45-45) the 5-25 run will lose you a lot more if you labbyed those 30 picks than they 40-20 run would have made you on a labby

          in summary, good plays are good plays whether played as flat bets or labby,
          bad plays are bad plays wither played as flat bet or labby

          the original post was not talking about a system, just about labbys in general
          Comment
          • Wilba
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 10-29-10
            • 702

            #5220
            Originally posted by ken23lau
            I laugh at anyone who jumped ship after the 4 MLB Plu$$ losses. System is back on track
            exactly. People are so unbelievable short sighted in this forum. They dont understand the concept of variance and long term profitability (most people anyway)
            Comment
            • pagodo
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 05-09-11
              • 669

              #5221
              That was a sweet B-day. Thanks, Wallco!
              Reminding the doubters and haters, that's one D loss made up already

              CC's back on the mound tonight, good news for all of us betting our fortunes on the JM [C] bet.
              Comment
              • BetaB
                SBR MVP
                • 05-07-10
                • 1082

                #5222
                Originally posted by Wilba
                Hey, I think you misunderstood., the 5-25 run was in reference to single bets, not series w/l. If you labby a 5-25 run on single bets you are in a big hole, even if the previous 60 bets went 40-20. What they meant is that even though you are 50% overall (45-45) the 5-25 run will lose you a lot more if you labbyed those 30 picks than they 40-20 run would have made you on a labby

                in summary, good plays are good plays whether played as flat bets or labby,
                bad plays are bad plays wither played as flat bet or labby

                the original post was not talking about a system, just about labbys in general
                Thanks Wilba, that is exactly what i meant.
                Comment
                • goodone
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 05-15-11
                  • 60

                  #5223
                  Originally posted by hagball52
                  [FONT=verdana] [FONT=verdana]

                  Notes: Lucky for us moneyline bettors that they lost by 2. The Yanks are favored today and the juice is not too high so it's actually a decent play. And to all of you who got that wild email from JM on his
                  "champselections" you know I posted his results earlier. He is horrible. His price used to be $500 for a year of picks now it's $2000 dollars a month plus 5% of your winnings. Dang this guy is smoking some good sh*t ! It reminds me of the story of a guy who was being run out of town by it's people and he gets out in front to make it look like a parade. There is no end to the lengths JM will go to. GL all today.[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]
                  LOL!!!
                  Comment
                  • Glada Tartan
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-06-09
                    • 2820

                    #5224
                    Yanks pounded again!
                    Comment
                    • BigOrangeBrother
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-10-10
                      • 1538

                      #5225
                      Yanks "C" bet.....gotta have it!!

                      Comment
                      • Andy3568
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 01-17-10
                        • 615

                        #5226
                        Another example where a series falls out of the system criteria mid-series.

                        The Red Sox are now the #2 ranked team by RPI. That takes tonight's "C" bet out of range. JM will still count it a bet unless it loses. Then he'll use that as a reason we should not have bet it at all.
                        Comment
                        • bauerranch
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 08-01-10
                          • 611

                          #5227
                          You noticed that JM did not give his somtimes speech about making fortunes this C bet----
                          Comment
                          • lawalahmed
                            Restricted User
                            • 11-13-10
                            • 1237

                            #5228
                            I notice the RPI different from the begining of this serie, that is why i dont jump on board....i will only bet 1 unit tonight bcos if Yankee win JM win count the serie but if Yakees lost he will ask public opinion about it after 2 days he will throw it out....

                            ......Therefore bet with caution..... tonight.....
                            Comment
                            • Wallco99
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 01-01-11
                              • 7261

                              #5229
                              Wallco MLB PLU$$$
                              2011 System to date: 87-6
                              System profit/loss: +18.73 units (finished series)
                              Since my first post: -1.54 units (72-6) (fin. series)
                              Current open series: 0

                              (6/8/11) Houston (M/L) (B) – Win
                              (6/8/11) Boston (M/L) (B) – Win


                              (A) 46-43
                              (B) 20-25

                              (C) 12-13
                              (D) 7-6



                              There are no system plays for (6/9/11)


                              ** Do not place any wagers on teams unless the word “Official” appears next to the game. All lines and standings are based on final lines from ScoresandOdds.com. Some of the unofficial plays may change to the other team by game time. Official plays will not change. Keep checking for updated posts until all games are marked “official”. If your book is offering (+1½) on the (-1½) plays above, buy the alternate line for (-1½) on the team I have listed at (-1½), not the other team. NEVER PLAY (+1½) LINE ON ANY GAME IN THIS SYSTEM.
                              System backtest can be found in post #3446.
                              Comment
                              • GoGooners
                                SBR Hustler
                                • 01-28-11
                                • 58

                                #5230
                                Noooooooo it's a No play night today. Any chance we have a 10 plays day on the horizon wallco? Can feel the start of a great run again. thanks for the plays!
                                Comment
                                • thelimit0310
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-24-11
                                  • 1233

                                  #5231
                                  No plays for Wallco and a C bet for JM! Would be terrible for the followers to have a C bet loss so early on, but it could very well happen. The system loses on average 1 or 2 times per season. Still, let's be optimistic and cash this C bet tonight!
                                  Comment
                                  • Wallco99
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 01-01-11
                                    • 7261

                                    #5232
                                    Am I mistaken, or is Detroit also a JM play tonight?
                                    Comment
                                    • thelimit0310
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-24-11
                                      • 1233

                                      #5233
                                      Originally posted by Wallco99
                                      Am I mistaken, or is Detroit also a JM play tonight?
                                      I received an official email this morning and the link only showed the Yankees as a play tonight. Detroit may have not passed a filter or has not met some other official criteria. Or JM could have screwed up, wouldn't be the first time.
                                      Comment
                                      • 020NE
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 04-26-11
                                        • 4

                                        #5234
                                        JM just emailed that Detroit will be an "A" bet for today.
                                        Comment
                                        • hagball52
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 09-22-10
                                          • 3053

                                          #5235
                                          JM MLB System

                                          2011 Official season series record 9-0 (v1) (1 series pending)
                                          (A) 6-4
                                          (B) 2-2
                                          (C) 1-0
                                          V2 plays 1-0
                                          V3
                                          system 1-1
                                          Unofficial series 6-0


                                          Official
                                          (6/08/2011) NY Yankees
                                          (.521) v Boston (.523) M/L (B) Loss

                                          Next Plays
                                          Official
                                          (6/09/2011) NY Yankees
                                          (.520) v Boston (.525) M/L (C)
                                          (6/09/2011) Detroit
                                          (.514) v Seattle (.499) M/L (A) ( 6/10 (B), 6/11 (C) & 6/12 (D) if necessary)

                                          Upcoming Plays
                                          (6/14/2011) Detroit
                                          v Cleveland
                                          (6/14/2011) Arizona v San Francisco

                                          Notes: I haven't received an outlandish email from the "champ" making a wild proclamation. I'm sure it will come. Well, we got us a (C) bet, let's hope it cashes. The Yanks can't seem to pitch lately, hopefully they'll get it turned around today. There were 5 possible sweeps yesterday and we got 2. I'll post upcoming at the bottom. There are 3 possible sweeps today. Also on 6/13 we need to track the DET/TAM game because it's a continuation of a series from a rainout and DET is 2-0 in the series. Today the juice is really high (-200) in the Detroit game. It's +110 runline if you decide to play it that way. I'll be at work later so when the JM email comes in would someone please put it up. He's probably praying for a rain delay so he can cancel the series. GL all today.
                                          Future plays from sweeps:
                                          OAK v BAL (8/15)
                                          LAA v TAM No rematch
                                          Comment
                                          • thelimit0310
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-24-11
                                            • 1233

                                            #5236
                                            Speak of the Devil! JM has just sent out another email adding Detroit to the table today! So NYY (C) and Detroit (A) are todays plays, though I'm sure hagball will post them a little more officially then me :P
                                            Comment
                                            • Wallco99
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 01-01-11
                                              • 7261

                                              #5237
                                              Originally posted by thelimit0310
                                              I received an official email this morning and the link only showed the Yankees as a play tonight. Detroit may have not passed a filter or has not met some other official criteria. Or JM could have screwed up, wouldn't be the first time.
                                              I'll wait for Hagball's post. Thanks.
                                              Comment
                                              • thelimit0310
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-24-11
                                                • 1233

                                                #5238
                                                @Hagball, his email was nothing special, like you said no outlandish claims or the such. He sent out 2 emails, the latter one correctly adding Detroit to todays games, the link brings up this:

                                                John Morrison's Sports Betting Champ System Official System Pick(s)
                                                6/9 New York Yankees [C]
                                                Boston Red Sox

                                                6/9 Detroit Tigers [A]
                                                Seattle Mariners
                                                Comment
                                                • BetaB
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-07-10
                                                  • 1082

                                                  #5239
                                                  hey guys, i's been lurking around this thread for a while now and it's seem that many of you have great knowledge on money management and system plays. It would be very kind of you if anyone could lend me a hand on managing labby lines. Think is i got a thread running here on baseball forum for about 2 weeks and but recently i included an additional play on labby and although it went well, i can seem to manage mine lines properly. As you can see in the thread here http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...og-2011-a.html i had 8 labby line running at once and for some reason my streak will keep getting bigger everyday unless i got a sweep. Surely, this is not the right way to do it.

                                                  Note: My general idea on having so many labby lines is to avoid a huge losing streak wipe out my entire BR. E.g. 8 straight lose would not cost me too much since they will be spread out over 8 lines and besides you hardly get a baseball game to end before another start.

                                                  Thank You in advance
                                                  Comment
                                                  • alexknyc
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 03-22-11
                                                    • 861

                                                    #5240
                                                    The juice on Detroit at BetUS is -230. I'd have to risk more than my B bet to win the A bet. Doesn't seem like a good play for me so I'll pass.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • hagball52
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 09-22-10
                                                      • 3053

                                                      #5241
                                                      Originally posted by thelimit0310
                                                      @Hagball, his email was nothing special, like you said no outlandish claims or the such. He sent out 2 emails, the latter one correctly adding Detroit to todays games, the link brings up this:

                                                      John Morrison's Sports Betting Champ System Official System Pick(s)
                                                      6/9 New York Yankees [C]
                                                      Boston Red Sox

                                                      6/9 Detroit Tigers [A]
                                                      Seattle Mariners
                                                      Yeah if he's not jumping up and down and boldly proclaiming a win on the (C) bet then he doesn't feel warm and fuzzy about it. I just got an email from him. Only got one but it had both plays. Play that Yankee game with caution today. And to whoever mentioned BOS being #2 in the rpi you're probably right about him scratching it if it loses. All that being said I will play the (C) bet today. I started it softly from the (A) bet so I don't have a lot out on it. The Yanks have lost 5 in a row to the Sox at home. Something's gotta give.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • BigBlue77
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 02-26-09
                                                        • 200

                                                        #5242
                                                        Originally posted by alexknyc
                                                        The juice on Detroit at BetUS is -230. I'd have to risk more than my B bet to win the A bet. Doesn't seem like a good play for me so I'll pass.
                                                        Bet it -1.5 RL at around +110. Ill bet half of what I normally do for A bets and if Detroit ends up winning by 1 run I could handle a small loss. Plenty of more series to bet on after.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • thelimit0310
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-24-11
                                                          • 1233

                                                          #5243
                                                          Eh, I think i'll pass on todays plays too. I didn't play too hard on NYY so I can afford it, but I'd rather not place it. The Sox have torn them up 5 games now. Detroit is over -200 and I'm not going to play outside the system rules, it makes me uncomfortable. Think I'll just kick back and relax today and pick it up tomorrow.

                                                          To all of you that placed wagers today, best of luck!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Wallco99
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 01-01-11
                                                            • 7261

                                                            #5244
                                                            Originally posted by thelimit0310
                                                            Eh, I think i'll pass on todays plays too. I didn't play too hard on NYY so I can afford it, but I'd rather not place it. The Sox have torn them up 5 games now. Detroit is over -200 and I'm not going to play outside the system rules, it makes me uncomfortable. Think I'll just kick back and relax today and pick it up tomorrow.

                                                            To all of you that placed wagers today, best of luck!
                                                            Took Yanks -1 1/2 +171 and Detroit -1 1/2 +115. Been playing this way all season, so far only 1 loss. However, even with that loss I am 1.1 units ahead of JM traditional method betting this way, and I skipped two of the bets, both would have won. +money bets is where I live. I can afford the loss if it happens, and if an actual loss happens, I will recoup much much faster. Never have more than 7 total units on any series, unless runline odds become negative, or both teams are -105....
                                                            Comment
                                                            • hagball52
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 09-22-10
                                                              • 3053

                                                              #5245
                                                              Originally posted by thelimit0310
                                                              Eh, I think i'll pass on todays plays too. I didn't play too hard on NYY so I can afford it, but I'd rather not place it. The Sox have torn them up 5 games now. Detroit is over -200 and I'm not going to play outside the system rules, it makes me uncomfortable. Think I'll just kick back and relax today and pick it up tomorrow.

                                                              To all of you that placed wagers today, best of luck!
                                                              I did step outside the rules. I parlayed NYY and DET and I played DET -1 1/2.
                                                              Could lose both could win both but either way I'll survive and move on.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • GGPLAYER
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 03-26-09
                                                                • 2981

                                                                #5246
                                                                Yanks moneyline is sky rocketing. Not sure if it is a good sign or not.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • oklahoma
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 11-22-10
                                                                  • 602

                                                                  #5247
                                                                  Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                                                                  Yanks moneyline is sky rocketing. Not sure if it is a good sign or not.
                                                                  prob based solely on the same reason we're betting them. will the public favorite yanks really get swept twice in a row?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • thelimit0310
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-24-11
                                                                    • 1233

                                                                    #5248
                                                                    Originally posted by Wallco99
                                                                    Took Yanks -1 1/2 +171 and Detroit -1 1/2 +115. Been playing this way all season, so far only 1 loss. However, even with that loss I am 1.1 units ahead of JM traditional method betting this way, and I skipped two of the bets, both would have won. +money bets is where I live. I can afford the loss if it happens, and if an actual loss happens, I will recoup much much faster. Never have more than 7 total units on any series, unless runline odds become negative, or both teams are -105....
                                                                    good idea, i actually took them both like this after I thought about it. now i'm considering playing the system this way as an alternative if the lines get too big. thanks
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • esaldivar
                                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                                      • 05-06-10
                                                                      • 37

                                                                      #5249
                                                                      hey h00dini is there a play for today?

                                                                      thanks bro
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • BCC585
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 04-27-11
                                                                        • 603

                                                                        #5250
                                                                        Originally posted by esaldivar
                                                                        hey h00dini is there a play for today?

                                                                        thanks bro
                                                                        nope, there is a play tomorrow.
                                                                        Comment
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