Pine tar, ummm, where does it come from?
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Pairs, it was great chatting to you about your angles at last years bash - i wish you the very best of luck as we approach the start of the season, as do all the other followers on this thread.
I will be a keen supporter of this thread all season
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Pair, I went out and make what I consider to be a fairly contrarian bet on the UNDER of Milwaukee at 86.5 total wins @ +100. I really like the Crew with their new pitching additions and now Nyjer Morgan (even after a down season, he is still better than Carlos Gomez), but with Marcum having a slight shoulder scare earlier this month, Greinke looking to be out until late April instead of early April, and Hart beginning the year on the DL allll coupled with Rickey Weeks and his checkered health, I had to pull the trigger on what could be a mammoth letdown if there are some injuries.
I'm over running the NL Central thread, hopefully providing some insight for those that are looking to bet those games. If you (or anyone else) ever want to stop by and throw some opinions around, you're more than welcome. I'll be sure to stop in here often and check up on what is hopefully a successful season for ya.Comment -
Great meeting you Smogs last year as well. I appreciate you being an avid supporter of the thread. Looking forward to puzzleing the non-contrarian world with the selections. Your input is always welcomed.Comment -
Tough break for the A's on Andrew B. It's brutal to lose such an effective closer. Worse yet - with his history and the way he throws - this could mean big problems. They'll have to be very careful with him even after the DL as forearm stuff like he has, especially if it's chronic, often warns that the UCL is ready to go. It commonly foretells the elbow blowout to come (ala Wainwright). Then it's 12-18 mos with Tom John.
The deal for Balfour is now looking very big.Comment -
BB, everywhere I read shows Fuentes will probably take over as closer. Do you have any indication that Balfour will take over instead of Bailey? More than likely split duties until someone falters?Comment -
No inside info - and, yes, Geren is saying that Fuentes and Balfour will compete. My main point re Balfour is that the deal provided the necessary insurance against just such an injury. Fuentes was slated for the set-up role and you need both set up and close if you're going to seriously contend.
Personally, I think Balfour is actually better suited to the closer role than is Fuentes. I see the The big Australian as having both the stuff and the attitude. He's had some problems with BBs at times, but last year his BBs per 9 was the best of his career (under 3) and his Ks/9 was still over 9 (he's averaged >10 career). On the other hand - although Fuentes has better command and walks fewer - his FB is not overpowering (89-90). He relies heavily on his change and he pitches to more contact. His Ks/9 is well under 8.
If you have a LHer like Fuentes who you can also trust to pitch to RH hitters - I always like the LHer setting up and RH closer (remember Honeycut/Eckersley). But I think you're right that they'll probably split duty - at least for the beginning of the season.Comment -
I can smell it boys. Where will the Contrarians go on opening day. I am wondering when the lines will be put out tomorrow. Nevertheless, I am stoked.Comment -
Cannot wait either - Pairs, when do you usually have bets in place for the days action? I'm 7 hours ahead in uganda so last chance to follow bets midweek (school night) is roughly 3pm est. I can't remember from last year when you usually post your plays during the day.
CheersComment -
Cannot wait either - Pairs, when do you usually have bets in place for the days action? I'm 7 hours ahead in uganda so last chance to follow bets midweek (school night) is roughly 3pm est. I can't remember from last year when you usually post your plays during the day.
CheersComment -
Nats or possibly tigers on opening day???Comment -
Best o luck for the season ahead pair o 5's
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Selection
Good morning Contrarians, the Contrarian Observation Tower is open for business. It's is exciting to see the numbers on the board this morning. We officially throw out the first selection to the capping world. But where do you go in this "lack of numbers world". For the first few weeks, the Contrarians will look for big betting markets to pound their teams, because as we know, "Our team is going to the World Series". No better candidate for this angle is New York Yankees. ACE to ACE, Verlander to CC, we go with the visitors and the + plus money as CC tries to work off the post season cheeseburgers.
As a reminder we will be establishing a 1-5 unit play for the selections.
Tigers +136 (2 units)
Beware O ContrareComment -
Good morning, 5's!
Perfect timing - I'm in Nevada getting ready to tee it up for Thursday. Just got in from celebrating a profitable NBA night (thanks to friends who know that game far better than myself). Now 3 hours before the stock market opens and the real gambling begins. Will have to sleep fast.
I like your first pick - and will also have a piece of it. I trust Verlander with the money vs CC. The price is right. Biggest question for me with the Tigers is the defense behind him. I hope it doesn't burn us on this one.
Good Luck to all as we kick it off.Comment -
First pick is out - here we goComment -
On DET as well. Looking @ LAD tooComment -
with you guys on the Tigers. Love getting great pitchers at + moneyComment -
Justin Verlander is on a mission to improve on his history of poor April performance. Over his career - his April ERA is over 5 and he's 4 games under .500 (7-11). His career ERA in May is well under 3 and he's 10 games over (18-8).
Jim Leyland yesterday: "I have to compliment Justin on trying to take his game to the next level. He's figured things out himself. I give him a lot of credit. He knows what he's doing."
And Leyland knows when a guy has the fire in the belly. I look for Verlander to be ready to deal on Thursday.
Looking at the Yankees - as they are currently configured - I think it's pretty clear that the way you are going to beat them this year is to have your starter out pitch them. You are not going to out slug them. They return with essentially the same llineup that led the majors in runs scored last year. And their 2011 bullpen is stronger with the addition of Soriano. The key is that the value of that great, late bullpen of Soriano/Mariano is significantly neutralized if you win the rotation matchup and they don't have the lead late. There is not enough bullpen (or lineup) in the world to compensate for a weak starting staff. And even with CC out there - keep in mind that he will be facing a couple of new, significant challenges this year - esp early in the season. 1) He has a new pitching coach in Larry Rothschild (changing leagues, coming from the the Cubbies, no less). 2) He has a new catcher in Russell Martin (also coming from the NL). Neither one of these guys is all that familiar with the AL hitters they'll be trying to beat. One should not underestimate the potentially uncertain impact of those changes on even a veteran pitcher.Comment -
Let's have some winners todayComment -
It appears that the Contrarians are all in concert with the Tigers selection on opening day.
Beware O ContrareComment -
Heres to a great season bud!
TIGERS and ANGELS for me.
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I'm on the Tigers to start the season as well. Verlander has been much better at home in the past, but +140 is worth a shot vs. CC who could blow up. GL.Comment -
Boys we had a last minute change in venue and we will be coming to you live from Bru's Room in Deerfield Beach, FL.
Strap your seat belts on. We go live in less than 12 hours.
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i'm 7 hours ahead of est, thinking of going to bed early and catching these games on espn - i'm buzzingComment -
Smogs, if you are 7 hours ahead of us, can you please let me know who wins the Yankees game before it starts over here.
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good thread, good minds... good luckComment -
Bol on yanksComment
