Good work, thank you and good luck
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Great fellas for working together. Shout out to mebaren for his work. Mebaren is awarded a lunch certificate to be redeemed Opening Day at Gulfstream Park.Comment -
Opening Night is 10 days away if I'm not mistaken.
You started this thread way to early pal. Start this thing up in February next year. It feels like it's been 4 years since the last baseball season.Comment -
We have not received any complaints thus far. Perhaps we go 365 next year. LolComment -
Saw my first baseball game here 37 years ago:
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This is the kind of thing that I think is important to our understanding of the overall dynamic of betting MLB. It's a great question and thanks to mebaran for contributing those numbers. Do you know the database from which they are drawn, mebaran?
The MLB regular season is 2,430 games - so your data would cover approx 2 seasons.
I looked over my own data from the 2010 season and I can say for sure that:
Of the 2,430 MLB games - Home teams overall played at .559 going 1358-1072.
The average implied break even price for home teams overall would have been -1.26 (actually -126.66)
If you flat bet every home team all year for 1 Unit you came up -10.35 Units.
If you flat bet every road team all year for 1 Unit you came up -173.03 Units.
If you flat bet every favorite all year to win 1 Unit you came up -125.53 Units
If you flat bet every dog all year laying 1 Unit you came up -57.85 Units.
These figures demonstrate just how tough it is to be profitable against efficient 10-cent lines in MLB.
With the possible exception of home dogs - there is no way one is going to be profitable randomly betting simple formulas like all home teams, road teams, favorites or dogs.
I don't have any further disaggregation of the categories immediately available from my own data - but I would strongly suspect, as mebaran's figures indicate, that the best specific category would be home dogs. I'm a little surprised, however, that even they would be randomly profitable over 2 years. Are you comfortable with the source and reliablity of the data, mebaran? As mlb said, you would think these breakdowns would be readily accessible today but it's hard to find reliable free data like this and given the many variables I find that some of the numbers that are out there are conflicting. Personally, I have come to discount a lot of it and rely on what I know from my own work to be true.
It would be really great to find a super reliable database that we could all share.Comment -
BB brings up some good points. Number one, if you notice, the average line over the 5200+ games equates to a 12 cent line. So if you are consistently getting 20 cent lines, you won't be getting these numbers.
I got the data from killersports. It is just a database I used to play around with, but from what I've seen, their data is pretty accurate. BB brings up another good point: always test data that isn't yours to test validity, use it with a grain of salt.Comment -
mebaran -
It looks like killersports gets their data from SportsDataBase.com which I believe to be a highly reliable source.
If anyone wants to take the time to master SDQL (Sports Data Query Language) - you can create extremely sophisticated queries specific to an incredibly wide range of parameters.
I'm sure it's currently used primarily by sabermetricians, fantasy baseballers and pimple-faced computer geeks - but there is little doubt it is also the future of baseball handicapping. It's important information and we better begin using it - because it's already being used against us.
Our greatest ally is what we know. Our greatest enemies are what we don't know - and what we think we know.Comment -
BB, it will be interesting to see the contrarian selection matching up against the stat purists. As you know, the contrarians make the purists scratch their heads. Nevertheless, it will be exciting to go at it.Comment -
Pair of 5's, is the contrarian pick web site yours? If so, I can't imagine your paid picks
will be the same as you post here. Maybe the free picks?
GL this season. I've already started, +11 units so far playing preseason. I lost my ass
last year, this year I discovered lab lines and I'm only playing two winning teams from
last year. I hope they continue their winning ways.Comment -
One thing's for sure, 5's. The black box modelers will never have as much fun.
As you know - I don't consider myself a stat purist whatsoever. I've spent too much time around the tobacco juice fraternity to not appreciate the value of crusty old baseball men's assessment of a winning player, a pitcher or a ballclub - even when the numbers "on paper" contravene that assessment. After all, there was no better numbers guy than Albert Einstein, and even he declared that "not everything that can be counted counts - and not everything that counts can be counted." If it only went by what you can measure - some of the greatest champions in all sports wouldn't even have been given a shot - Pete Rose and Joe Montana chief among them. Hell, when they put Babe Ruth on a scale every morning there was probably some guy standing there with a clipboard and a pencil who didn't like his numbers.
I just strive to have the best of both worlds - grab any and every edge I can get. I expect every one of NASA's astronauts is a great seat of the pants pilot - but you can't fly the Shuttle by the seat of your pants. Modern technology is a powerful thing if you know what to do with it.
Like you, I can't wait to tee it up. Gotta love the competition. Competing is what it's all about.Comment -
Yes, the site is mine. The SBR people decided to turn off the signature portion of the site. You can track the selection on the site easily. As for picks, whatever is posted here is for the SBR community to profit from. You won't be disappointed. The purpose of the site is to be a monitored handicapper. As you know from the site, all my plays are monitored and documented with no ability for me to change, alter or delete selections.
Oh yes, welcome to the Contrarian Observation TowerComment -
We are getting close ContrariansComment -
Aboard an Alaska Airline flight to the Sunshine State.Comment -
thanks for the info mebraren and BB ... looking forward to the season just interested in those numbersComment -
Bol , I will be following you, lets make some moneyComment -
Trumbo likely to open as Angels' 1B
LAA manager Mike Scioscia acknowledged Wednesday that Kendry Morales (1B, LAA) has hit a "plateau" in recovering from his broken leg and will not likely be ready for the start of the season. Prospect Mark Trumbo (1B, LAA) has had an excellent spring, and at the present time it appears that he will open at 1B.
Trumbo has certainly been impressive in the early going. He's currently hitting .348 in 46 AB, with five homers and 13 RBI, and he's leading both the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues in total bases. The only downside to his performance has been 12 strikeouts, for a 74% contact rate. However, a look at Trumbo's MLEs for the past two seasons says to temper our expectations.
Year/Level AB HR BA bb% ct% PX
========== === == ==== === === ===
2009 AA 533 13 .272 6% 83% 97
2010 AAA 532 25 .247 7% 83% 119
From these numbers, it appears that Trumbo could supply some power, but with BA downside. While he had a respectable contact rate in the minors, his initial contact rate in the majors might be his Achilles heel. His current 74% contact rate against less than front-line pitching is not impressive. And in a September cup of coffee last season, he hit .067 in 15 AB, with a 47% contact rate. He's far from a sure thing. [Late note: While Trumbo was pulled from Wednesday's game in the third inning due to tightness in his right groin, this looks like a precautionary measure for now.]Comment -
Steve Nash belting it out for the Contrarians.Comment -
Whatever Pair. Your plays will never be as sharp as the Season Long Winning Conservative Chase System. Did you hear he went 143-3 in 2010?
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Gio Gonzalez
A friend from another thread - the best NBA capper on the planet BTW (seriously) - asked me my take on Gio Gonzalez. I figured I’d put it here on a baseball thread where it belongs and just direct him here.
From the day Gonzalez was a first round pick of the WSOX about 6 yrs ago - he had the live 4-seam FB and a great 12-6 curve with big vertical movement. Everyone knew he had a chance to be a top tier big league LH pitcher if he could (1) develop his control/command* and (2) add one more pitch. But it’s not a simple process. A lot of great prospects with his kind of wicked strikeout stuff stall out or break down along the way.
It took Gonzalez more than a few years and three organizations to come of age as Chicago (where he was rated their #1 pitching prospect) traded him to Philly (where he was #2 behind only Cole Hamels). The Phils eventually traded him back and the Sox finally shipped him to Oakland. But all along you could tell there was still great regard for his potential because every one of those deals was major and involved big league names like Thome and Swisher.
Going to the A’s gave him a chance to work with Curt Young - who I rate among the top pitching coaches in the game – and he developed a low 80’s straight change to fit between his low 90’s FB and high 70’s curve. He made it to the bigs in ‘09 and then last year he had his huge breakout year when he finally started spotting his FB for strikes, getting ahead in counts where he could more effectively use his plus curve and also started mixing in the straight change for about 10% of his pitches. The other big thing he did last year was he began to finesse the curve and when necessary rein in the big breaker so he could throw it for a strike more consistently. With all that - he dropped his BBs per 9 from over 5 down to 4. Everything in baseball is a tradeoff and although he gave up more contact he was a far better pitcher. He was still almost 8Ks/9 (down from about 10) – and much more importantly his ERA went from the 5’s to the 3’s and he won 15 games. On top of that - his ground ball percentage went over the big 50% mark for the first time in his career so he is now officially not only a strikeout guy but a ground ball pitcher as well. He keeps it in the park.
He also proved to be durable in 2010 - going 200 innings. Bottom line – although he may never be mistaken for Cliff Lee in terms of command/control* - the kid is now a big league stud and he’s still only 25.
As we’ve said before - there’s a lot to like about the A’s pitching overall – and I like Gio Gonzalez A LOT. The great young arms in Oakland also have the advantage of pitching in the big old Coliseum with its huge foul territory and where the cool July-August nights help keep A’s pitchers strong down the stretch (vis a vis a place like Texas).
There are also other things to like about the 2011 A’s in terms of the overall team dynamic with the addition of Matsui to the lineup and Balfour to the pen. Personally, I have them a lot closer to the Rangers in the AL West than most.
The one cautionary note I see goes back to my respect for Curt Young. He’s no longer their pitching coach. Since Francona and the Red Sox offered him a deal he could not refuse – he now gets his mail in Boston. It is now the former bullpen coach who is running the pitching for the A’s and you can’t overstate the importance of that role on a big league club. It is huge. The big edge for the new guy is that he knows these pitchers well and they say he has a good relationship with them. The A’s have to hope so. A lot will be riding on it.
*BTW - a lot of people think "control" and "command" are synonymous terms when it comes to pitching. They are not. Control is the ability to throw strikes. Command is the ability to spot a pitch exactly where you want it within (or just outside) the zone.Comment -
Very nice writeup. Only things I can add were that Gio throughout his life would always get himself into trouble with walks. It wasn't really the fact that a guy got on base that was the problem, it was that Gio mentally would lose it. He is a perfectionist and wants to throw the perfect pitch every time and strike out every player. He has harnessed that now though and keeps his cool much better.
Gio did say that this year he doesn't want to strike out as many people and that he wants to give up more contact. What was funny was after his first spring training game, a reporter asked him about his 5 strikeouts in 6 inning and he said, "I really don't want to strike out so many people but this just couldn't hit anything I threw".Scared money don't make money
182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFSComment -
Thanks, SJ. Part of the maturation process for a big league pitcher is coming to the realization that you don't have to do it all yourself. You don't have to make every pitch perfect or strike out every guy. You have the greatest defensive players in the world out there behind you and you have to learn to trust them to make plays. Every major league pitching coach in the game can be heard telling some young pitcher to "trust your defense" at least 10 times a day.Comment -
we do not follow baseball in europe,,, so i will follow you,,, good luck with yr season...Comment -
Another incredible post by BB, he is well deserved of his own thread. The most knowledgeable man I know on MLB. At this point, he has been given full authority, by yours truly, to post at his discretion. BB takes a ton of time to analyze, and it is his opinion that a daily thread complicates matters during the season.
Again, he will be posting here.Comment -
Glove is earled, that's how it's said in Brooklyn
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Great analysis. Thank you. I'll checkComment -
Have you considered using a chase system this year, Pair?
I hear you can have a record of like 143-3 if you do.Comment -
Pretty sure Martingale was hired by the casinos back in the day to convince people he had a plan....Comment -
Yanks just signed Millwood. Scott Boras couldn't get him the 4 million guaranteed major league contract he wanted - but a low seven figure deal was apparently agreed to.
A desperate move, I'd say. NY probably sees him as an innings eater if he can make the club - but the way the balls fly out of the new Stadium off LH bats and with his over 3 walks per 9, almost 1.5 HRs per 9 and the unbelievably high fly ball % he gave up last year in Baltimore (only 37% ground balls) - the Yankee grounds crew better drag the warning track instead of the infield if and when he pitches there.
Bottom line on Millwood - take the OVER.Comment
