Pair of 5s Sir 2011 MLB

**TheLock** · 02-22-11, 02:36 PM

What is FLA's total @ Bookmaker? I'm posting from my phone.

**BeatingBaseball** · 02-22-11, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by TheLock

What is FLA's total @ Bookmaker? I'm posting from my phone.

81.5 at -115 OV or UN

**chemicalbrother** · 02-22-11, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by Pair of 5s Sir

Welcome back boys, Vegas was good for the pocket. Sports and poker yielded positive. I see that some of the books are coming out with the season wins totals. The Philly 96.5 is a big surprise. The balls of the squares are clanging with an over play there.

I usually don't play season wins on teams that I do not have a prop on. What I try to accomplish is to wager the amount of money that I have tied up in the future props, so if my team total wins, I recoup all my investment. The fact that I won't be playing Philly in the futures, would make their total, a no play.

96.5 is a LOT, even with the goat rotation.

that said, they could have two 20-game winners go down and STILL have a top 5 rotation...hmmm.

**jds07v** · 02-23-11, 01:16 PM

Gio Gonzalez would be a good get for the yanks, but at what price? The rest of the LH's mentioned, meh, not too crazy about

**fletch49** · 02-23-11, 03:01 PM

You mentioned in one of your earliest posts that you consider head-to-head records as one factor in finding value plays.
Question......how far back do you go with the head-to-head records? Last season and this season, or just this season, or something else?

**solobass** · 02-23-11, 04:26 PM

greetings, it was great meeting the ring leader of this establishment at the SBR bash! that was a great time and glad i cashed in the poker tournament and am looking forward to this years attendance. something of note to the contrarian mafia, the marlins and cubs will not have a lefty starting pitcher in their respective rotations!

**mebaran** · 02-23-11, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by solobass

greetings, it was great meeting the ring leader of this establishment at the SBR bash! that was a great time and glad i cashed in the poker tournament and am looking forward to this years attendance. something of note to the contrarian mafia, the marlins and cubs will not have a lefty starting pitcher in their respective rotations!

This worries me a lot. Cubs haven't had a solid lefty in forever

**BeatingBaseball** · 02-23-11, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by mebaran

This worries me a lot. Cubs haven't had a solid lefty in forever

Ted Lilly for a little while.

**Pair of 5s Sir** · 02-23-11, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by fletch49

You mentioned in one of your earliest posts that you consider head-to-head records as one factor in finding value plays.
Question......how far back do you go with the head-to-head records? Last season and this season, or just this season, or something else?

There is no hard dates. It is generally the information that is available to the public.

**Pair of 5s Sir** · 02-23-11, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by solobass

greetings, it was great meeting the ring leader of this establishment at the SBR bash! that was a great time and glad i cashed in the poker tournament and am looking forward to this years attendance. something of note to the contrarian mafia, the marlins and cubs will not have a lefty starting pitcher in their respective rotations!

Nice to hear from you again. The Contrarian Mafia will be in full regalia for the opening day. We have been polishing up the Tower for our new guests.

**Pair of 5s Sir** · 02-26-11, 10:57 AM

Just got finished laddering the A's in the Divisional, Pennant and WS. My longie play on the Astros, they have not posted the NL Central on 5D for some reason. The Over play will be on the Astros 72.5, in the amount equal to all my futures wager. Stros go over, all the money is recouped.

**BeatingBaseball** · 02-26-11, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by Pair of 5s Sir

Just got finished laddering the A's in the Divisional, Pennant and WS. My longie play on the Astros, they have not posted the NL Central on 5D for some reason. The Over play will be on the Astros 72.5, in the amount equal to all my futures wager. Stros go over, all the money is recouped.

I think you have a real shot with the A's, 5's. As to the Astros, I hope they come thru with 73 wins for you.

For an Italian guy - your Astros strategy is a bit of a Polish hedge - hedging your Astros plays with more Astros.

BOL

**Pair of 5s Sir** · 02-26-11, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by BeatingBaseball

I think you have a real shot with the A's, 5's. As to the Astros, I hope they come thru with 73 wins for you.

For an Italian guy - your Astros strategy is a bit of a Polish hedge - hedging your Astros plays with more Astros.

BOL

I know BB. Contrarian sometimes reaches the level of insanity. Perhaps this is one of them. The bar is low with the Stros (that kinda rhymes). This one will put me into legendary status

or bafoon

.

Beware O Contrare

**TheJewBear** · 02-27-11, 07:45 AM

Season totals are out, spring training lines are up, were getting so close I can taste it!

Just made this play on dimes:

Boston-under 95 1/2
Fla -over 82 1/2
Philly -under 96 1/2
Sea -over 69 1/2
Tor -over 76 1/2

$20 to win $496.60

I know the your all gonna say the Seattle pick looks like garbage, well maybe, but I guess we'll have to see.

**mebaran** · 02-27-11, 09:14 AM

I don't think Toronto makes it over 76.5 either...but that's just me. Hope it works out. That's an interesting play..

**Pair of 5s Sir** · 02-27-11, 11:54 AM

I see TheJewBear is in the books. Don't fret the M's, my Stros play has them

. Contrarian plays, outhouse to penthouse scenarios pay huge. The Contrarian Observation Tower welcomes you back, JewBear.

**BIGRED12** · 02-27-11, 01:55 PM

excited about baseball & ur picks 5's

**Pair of 5s Sir** · 02-27-11, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by BIGRED12

excited about baseball & ur picks 5's

Thank you Mr Red, welcome to the Tower.

**TheLock** · 02-28-11, 12:34 AM

Today (Sun) was the first day that it felt like baseball was back.

**odog11** · 02-28-11, 01:19 AM

New to the thread and fairly new to the site, been concentraiting on the NHL and having some success there recently. I am a firm believer in logic, and being contrarian(sucssesfully at least) really must involve finding the flaw in someone's logic. For us it ultimately starts with the bookmakers logic(which is based upon their perception not only of the game involved, but also how the betting public will preceive it). Find the flaw in logic and find the money.

In regards to futures I don't like to make a play unless I see something that is going to make the odds change soon, but that has not been recognized or acted upon by the puplic/bookmakers yet. That being said, lets keep an eye out for any injuries, sup par or stellar spring training performances that could give us an eye to the future.

**Pair of 5s Sir** · 02-28-11, 06:50 AM

Originally posted by odog11

New to the thread and fairly new to the site, been concentraiting on the NHL and having some success there recently. I am a firm believer in logic, and being contrarian(sucssesfully at least) really must involve finding the flaw in someone's logic. For us it ultimately starts with the bookmakers logic(which is based upon their perception not only of the game involved, but also how the betting public will preceive it). Find the flaw in logic and find the money.

In regards to futures I don't like to make a play unless I see something that is going to make the odds change soon, but that has not been recognized or acted upon by the puplic/bookmakers yet. That being said, lets keep an eye out for any injuries, sup par or stellar spring training performances that could give us an eye to the future.

Welcome Odog. You are officially the first dog in the Tower. From what I understand, TheJewBear is allergic to dogs and cats. TheLock will have to provide him with some pharmaceuticals to aid his discomfort

Beware O Contrare

**shinnman** · 02-28-11, 12:39 PM

new to the site as well, but this place is like a good book, just cant put it down , great info in here , running test with a labby, never heard of it until now, seems pretty effective.... what you guys think

**Pair of 5s Sir** · 02-28-11, 04:29 PM

Originally posted by shinnman

new to the site as well, but this place is like a good book, just cant put it down , great info in here , running test with a labby, never heard of it until now, seems pretty effective.... what you guys think

Welcome aboard the Contrarian Observation Tower. Love the name, shinnman, there is probably a story behind. Not sure what you are referring to with this test thing, please clarify. Nevertheless, the Contrarian Mafia awaits your participation in clearly the most entertaining of threads, if I say so myself. Insight, analysis, winners, and a good time.

The Contrarian

**shinnman** · 02-28-11, 09:07 PM

man i dont evn know you and i already like you, i have answered most of my questions by my nonstop testing, btw last name is shinn so been shinnman since i came out

**BeatingBaseball** · 02-28-11, 09:18 PM

It's Opening Day at Busch Stadium. The weather is unseasonably mild - real baseball weather.

As the pitcher tosses the rosin bag aside and the first hitter gets ready to enter the batter's box, a man carrying a tall, cold beer and 2 perfect hot dogs makes his way down to his seat in the second row right near the Cardinals' on deck circle. He sits down, noticing that the seat next to him is empty. He leans over and asks his neighbor if someone will be sitting there. "No" says the neighbor. "The seat will be empty."

"That's incredible," said the man. "Who in their right mind would have a seat like this for Opening Day and not use it?"

The neighbor says, "Well, actually, the seat belongs to me. I always come with my wife, but she passed away. This is the first Opening Day we haven't been to together since we were married over 40 years ago."

"Oh, I'm so sorry to hear that. That's really terrible... But couldn't you find someone else, a friend or relative, or even a neighbor to take the seat?"

The man shakes his head. "No,” he says, “They're all at the funeral."

**BeatingBaseball** · 02-28-11, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by shinnman

new to the site as well, but this place is like a good book, just cant put it down , great info in here , running test with a labby, never heard of it until now, seems pretty effective.... what you guys think

Good luck with the Labouchere, shin - but I have to say there are probably better bases for varying your wagers in baseball than following a split Martingale progression. I'd suggest you be cautious with it because it was originally designed for more even money propositions like Roulette or Baccarat.

**shinnman** · 02-28-11, 10:48 PM

thanks for the insite beatingbaseball, love your previous post as well, i think i will use the labby on totals ( i like playin unders) not a big fan of layin big juice, but thats part of baseball, also i think i will use the 2 line labby which will keep bets lower

**xelance** · 02-28-11, 10:51 PM

love it BB! hahaha!

**Pair of 5s Sir** · 03-01-11, 01:16 AM

As leader of the Contrarian Mafia, I bestow upon BeatingBaseball, the title of Toastmaster General. How bout a toast to start the season my friend.

**BeatingBaseball** · 03-01-11, 11:50 AM

To 2011

Let our smiles be big and wide
as we cash on every side.

Here’s to countless drinks and dinners
after nailing all our winners.

Let our hearts be light and cheerful
as the bookies grow more fearful.

Here’s to getting’ to October
with our bankroll spillin’ over.

Good Luck To All

may your prices be right and your bloopers find grass

**Pair of 5s Sir** · 03-01-11, 04:36 PM

The season props and futures are in.

Astros and A's are laddered from Divisional, Pennant and World Series.

Additionally, Over 72.5 Astros to recoup all the prop and future monies.

**BeatingBaseball** · 03-01-11, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by xelance

love it BB! hahaha!

Thanks for sending over the points, your xelancey. Appreciate it and BOL this season.

**TheLock** · 03-02-11, 09:06 AM

Pair of 5's, myself and The Jew Bear will be boozing and gamboling on bases all day on March 31st @ Gulfstream Park.

All are welcome to join us if you're in the South Florida area.

**Pair of 5s Sir** · 03-02-11, 04:29 PM

All attendees for the Contrarian Mafia Opening Day Bash, please RSVP asap.

**freakydave** · 03-02-11, 04:40 PM

This thread is intriguing-hopefully it will be happy trails.