Halladay -330 tomorrow.....Buyer Beware!

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  • stikymess
    SBR MVP
    • 05-19-10
    • 3288

    #36
    Nice write up mad, throw us out a winner for Wed.
    Comment
    • gohabsgo
      SBR MVP
      • 03-19-10
      • 1903

      #37
      I don't like paying -355 in baseball where anything can happen, halladay can have a bad day who knows, i think i'll bet on houston for fun
      Comment
      • Power Play
        SBR MVP
        • 02-01-10
        • 1224

        #38
        Originally posted by phillybadboy
        nice read, why didn't post this 5 hours ago?
        I did suggest not playing any of the big favorites today (boston, phillies, or cards) on another thread 6 hours or so ago.
        Comment
        • Sawyer
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 06-01-09
          • 7761

          #39
          Agreed with you %100.

          I don't remember many games when -300 or -250 fav won easily, LoL. (Except yankees)

          I love UNDER in these kind of games. Halladay may give 2 runs but it may not be enough for victory. In addition, Happ will pitch his best game to duel Halo.
          Comment
          • mitote
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 03-29-10
            • 588

            #40
            So what everyone is saying is to bet the house on the Phillies! They are a lock! hahaha j/k
            Comment
            • danrman
              SBR MVP
              • 08-30-08
              • 2696

              #41
              yeah i dont agree in this particular situation.. i think it takes balls to lay that when the stros have shown they can we in philly twice.. one also has the caveat w/ happ being a former philly when myers (another former philly pitcher) has already beaten them in this series.. just an opinion.. everyone has one and this is what makes a market.. it will be interesting to see how many people go w/ the fav. or the dog in this one.. no matter how your choose.. GL
              Comment
              • MadCapper
                SBR MVP
                • 01-27-08
                • 4179

                #42
                Originally posted by stikymess
                Nice write up mad, throw us out a winner for Wed.
                Thanx!

                I will a little later!
                My Blog: http://madcapper.mysbrforum.com/
                Comment
                • dukeblue888
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 01-15-10
                  • 360

                  #43
                  phillies and the over
                  Comment
                  • MadCapper
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-27-08
                    • 4179

                    #44
                    Originally posted by Sawyer
                    Agreed with you %100.

                    I don't remember many games when -300 or -250 fav won easily, LoL. (Except yankees)

                    I love UNDER in these kind of games. Halladay may give 2 runs but it may not be enough for victory. In addition, Happ will pitch his best game to duel Halo.
                    Even the Yankees dont win easily.
                    My Blog: http://madcapper.mysbrforum.com/
                    Comment
                    • MadCapper
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-27-08
                      • 4179

                      #45
                      Originally posted by danrman
                      yeah i dont agree in this particular situation.. i think it takes balls to lay that when the stros have shown they can we in philly twice.. one also has the caveat w/ happ being a former philly when myers (another former philly pitcher) has already beaten them in this series.. just an opinion.. everyone has one and this is what makes a market.. it will be interesting to see how many people go w/ the fav. or the dog in this one.. no matter how your choose.. GL
                      I guarantee many many people will have the Phillies -330 in their parlays.
                      My Blog: http://madcapper.mysbrforum.com/
                      Comment
                      • MadCapper
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-27-08
                        • 4179

                        #46
                        Originally posted by dukeblue888
                        phillies and the over
                        Possibly. But why?
                        My Blog: http://madcapper.mysbrforum.com/
                        Comment
                        • mtltitans2
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 08-06-10
                          • 165

                          #47
                          I like the Phils RL @ -160 I don't see them getting swept at home espicialy with Halladay on the mound
                          Comment
                          • Bo$$ Bet$
                            Restricted User
                            • 07-08-10
                            • 3062

                            #48
                            Originally posted by MadCapper
                            I always give this warning to bettors during late August and September: "BEWARE OF THE HUGE FAVORITES AGAINST TEAMS THAT HAVE YOUNG GUYS PLAYING FOR THEIR LIVELYHOOD!" And year in and year out bettors don't listen and end up losing too much on the -300 favorite. Teams that are out of it and have their young prospects up are DANGEROUS! These kids seem to be a bit quicker than the veterans. They are playing with a chip on their shoulder. They are showcasing themselves for the next season. Furthermore, the huge favorites often "look past" these inferior teams. The veterans on the huge favorite teams do not even know who 90% of the underdog roster is. They probably go to sleep late, wake up late, and say all we have to do is get on the field and we will win. But, more often than not, that is not the case. As we saw last night with the big bad -300 Cardinals, with their ace - Wainwright- on the mound, against the inferior Pirates. The gashouse gang were only able to must 3 runs. They scored 2 in the first and then seemed to turn off the switch. And players like Tabata, Walker, and McCutchen beat Wainwright. Also, the big bad hitting Phillies only got up for the game enough to score 2 runs against the putrid Astros...IN PHILLY!

                            For today, luckilly, there is only 1 huge favorite on the board: Phillies (Halladay) -330 vs Happ and the Astros. Square logic tells us that its a sure thing, a lock, that Halladay will handle, if not shut-out the lowly, weak hitting Astros. The Phillies are pissed about last night. Theres no way they can lose again, Right? Wrong! Its never that easy. The Phillies bats have been dormant, to say the least. It seems as if Utley and Howard have both come back too soon from their injuries. The rest of the lineup seems to have flamed out as well. Werth, Victorino, Polanco, Rollins (besides his huge homerun last night) are not hitting consistently enough. The Astros are playing with nothing to lose. This is their World Series.....facing Doc Halladay and the mighty Phillies. This is J.A. Happ's Hall of Fame game. He will be up for this one...playing against his former team.

                            By no means am I telling you that Houston will win. But what I am telling you is not to tie up your money on a -330 favorite in this situation. As I tell fellow bettors: "Even the best teams in baseball lose 60+ games" and "even the best pitchers in baseball barely win 50% of the games they start".


                            I wish you luck with whatever you decide to do. Hopefully you learned something today
                            very nice thank you i learned something today
                            Comment
                            • MadCapper
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-27-08
                              • 4179

                              #49
                              Originally posted by mtltitans2
                              I like the Phils RL @ -160 I don't see them getting swept at home espicialy with Halladay on the mound
                              Square talk?

                              And run-lines at home are very risky. Plus its a -160 runline. Stay away.
                              My Blog: http://madcapper.mysbrforum.com/
                              Comment
                              • MadCapper
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-27-08
                                • 4179

                                #50
                                Originally posted by Bo$$ Bet$
                                very nice thank you i learned something today
                                My Blog: http://madcapper.mysbrforum.com/
                                Comment
                                • Prey
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 02-10-10
                                  • 457

                                  #51
                                  I'm on phillies -1.5 in a parlay for 140 sbr

                                  Astros for real money. Really think halladay will have another 1-0 win? doubt it. Phillies either win big or lose, leaning towards the first so I'm betting the opposite.
                                  Comment
                                  • MadCapper
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-27-08
                                    • 4179

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by Prey
                                    I'm on phillies -1.5 in a parlay for 140 sbr

                                    Astros for real money. Really think halladay will have another 1-0 win? doubt it. Phillies either win big or lose, leaning towards the first so I'm betting the opposite.
                                    Runlines at home are very tricky with one less AB. Also the way Philly has been hitting..why take a JUICY runline?
                                    My Blog: http://madcapper.mysbrforum.com/
                                    Comment
                                    • thebestthereis
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 03-01-09
                                      • 11459

                                      #53
                                      halladay is good matchup (in his favor) vs the astros, being a right handed sinker ball type pitcher. astros average 3.6 runs and their average is .242, against halladay that will be worse. problems for me is that the phillies are not hitting and happ used to pitch for them so he knows the hitters well (always in the pitchers favor). with all of this being said there is no justification whatsoever to lay -340 in this game. true line should be half that in my opinion.
                                      Comment
                                      • ChileCheese
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-07-09
                                        • 1957

                                        #54
                                        What about Phils TT over?
                                        Comment
                                        • WvGambler
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 04-19-10
                                          • 11618

                                          #55
                                          Originally posted by ChileCheese
                                          What about Phils TT over?
                                          They can't hit water from a boat right now...their offense is what's making them suspect.
                                          Comment
                                          • jacky
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 04-16-10
                                            • 217

                                            #56
                                            PHI might win only 1 point so don't play on rl.
                                            Bookies love to stay on underdog side 'cause they're aware that bettors love to play on favorite side.
                                            Comment
                                            • MadCapper
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-27-08
                                              • 4179

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by ChileCheese
                                              What about Phils TT over?
                                              Only way you could bet that is if you believe in the "due theory". And thats a very flawed theory, to say the least.
                                              My Blog: http://madcapper.mysbrforum.com/
                                              Comment
                                              • fjordo
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 11-26-09
                                                • 1298

                                                #58
                                                Whenever I see a game with a line -300 or more, I always like to put a tiny play on the reverse runline. Is it likely the Astros win by 2, probably not, but with +640 odds is it not worth a shot?
                                                Comment
                                                • Sportsbetting123
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 03-01-08
                                                  • 1400

                                                  #59
                                                  Unbelievable line on this, especially considering Happ is a decent pitcher. Wouldn't touch this game. Best of luck!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • MadCapper
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-27-08
                                                    • 4179

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by fjordo
                                                    Whenever I see a game with a line -300 or more, I always like to put a tiny play on the reverse runline. Is it likely the Astros win by 2, probably not, but with +640 odds is it not worth a shot?
                                                    True...but thats being greedy. I'd be happy with +300
                                                    My Blog: http://madcapper.mysbrforum.com/
                                                    Comment
                                                    • MadCapper
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-27-08
                                                      • 4179

                                                      #61
                                                      Originally posted by Sportsbetting123
                                                      Unbelievable line on this, especially considering Happ is a decent pitcher. Wouldn't touch this game. Best of luck!
                                                      And still how many people will use the Phillies as one leg, or worse the anchor, of their parlays?

                                                      Just like Hamels and Wainwright and Beckett last night.

                                                      I warned everyone about it last night.
                                                      My Blog: http://madcapper.mysbrforum.com/
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Betting Guru
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 11-24-09
                                                        • 648

                                                        #62
                                                        No doubt buyer shall be ware! I've seen Halladay lose a game where he was favored by more! No doubt he is a stud but a little to rich for my blood.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • SR
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 09-10-08
                                                          • 1317

                                                          #63
                                                          I always throw a little bit on lines like these, especially when the astros have been playing hot in philly.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • MadCapper
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-27-08
                                                            • 4179

                                                            #64
                                                            I see -350 now.
                                                            My Blog: http://madcapper.mysbrforum.com/
                                                            Comment
                                                            • bradleysnyder
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 04-18-07
                                                              • 6662

                                                              #65
                                                              going to parlay houston and kc
                                                              Comment
                                                              • MadCapper
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-27-08
                                                                • 4179

                                                                #66
                                                                And how many people will be taking Boston -220 @ home with Beckett against Seattle and D. Paulie at 1pm?

                                                                This is another "lock" that everyoone will parlay.

                                                                You will see tons of 2,3,4 team parlays with Philly and Boston involved.

                                                                Buyer Beware!
                                                                My Blog: http://madcapper.mysbrforum.com/
                                                                Comment
                                                                • thirtytwo
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-07-10
                                                                  • 1784

                                                                  #67
                                                                  i like tha under in this one
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • HoulihansTX
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 02-12-09
                                                                    • 30566

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Houston +1.5 is the only play.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • MadCapper
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-27-08
                                                                      • 4179

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Originally posted by stikymess
                                                                      Nice write up mad, throw us out a winner for Wed.
                                                                      Braves -125 (3 units)
                                                                      Rays +110 (2 units)
                                                                      Astros +310 (1 unit)
                                                                      Royals +175 (1 unit)

                                                                      My Blog: http://madcapper.mysbrforum.com/
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Bsters
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 11-16-09
                                                                        • 146

                                                                        #70
                                                                        I would rather lay a small bet on the other side of that line just to see if I can get a big payout....you never know. Look at the Cardinals last night vs the Pirates
                                                                        Comment
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