Reverend's 2010 MLB

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  • diegoelmestre
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 12-30-09
    • 510

    #2661
    yANKEES looking good ^^
    Comment
    • DustyDiamond
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 12-19-09
      • 772

      #2662
      Nice win for the FAV system tough night for pimike's double play system play
      Comment
      • pistolero
        SBR Rookie
        • 10-04-08
        • 9

        #2663
        Does anyone know abut Reverend? is he going to be back & posting plays? I know he was going to take a break,, any info please drop it here
        Greetings
        Comment
        • balls2wall
          SBR MVP
          • 12-20-09
          • 2642

          #2664
          Substitute FAV System Record


          10-0 (+10 units)

          A: 6
          B: 3
          C: 1
          D: 0
          Loss: 0



          REV's FAV System Record

          19-0 (+25 units)
          Comment
          • GGPLAYER
            SBR MVP
            • 03-26-09
            • 2981

            #2665
            It's seems it's almost automatic with the Yanks this year when they are the big fav. I keep reading posts where guys keep going against them with crap teams and it just is not happening. Is'nt NY like perfect so far when they are a fav of -200 or more? I dunno but this system is as solid as anything that is out there. Thanks for keeping it going here on Rev's thread Balls2wall.

            Whoops..my computer froze and I keep hitting the transfer button on those points Enjoy
            Comment
            • JVP3122
              SBR MVP
              • 05-02-09
              • 1048

              #2666
              Originally posted by GGPLAYER
              It's seems it's almost automatic with the Yanks this year when they are the big fav. I keep reading posts where guys keep going against them with crap teams and it just is not happening. Is'nt NY like perfect so far when they are a fav of -200 or more? I dunno but this system is as solid as anything that is out there. Thanks for keeping it going here on Rev's thread Balls2wall.
              They lost to the Indians one or two weeks ago as a -320 favorite
              Comment
              • df1000
                SBR High Roller
                • 05-06-10
                • 123

                #2667
                i realize it was only pitt, but 14 strike outs is a great way to start a career.
                Comment
                • balls2wall
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-20-09
                  • 2642

                  #2668
                  Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                  It's seems it's almost automatic with the Yanks this year when they are the big fav. I keep reading posts where guys keep going against them with crap teams and it just is not happening. Is'nt NY like perfect so far when they are a fav of -200 or more? I dunno but this system is as solid as anything that is out there. Thanks for keeping it going here on Rev's thread Balls2wall.

                  Whoops..my computer froze and I keep hitting the transfer button on those points Enjoy



                  thanks GG

                  I appreciate the points


                  I was on the Yanks -1 yesterday and felt comfy with it. I saw several people on the Os, but I liked backing one of the best teams in baseball against the worst team rather than hoping the Os could keep it within a run on the +1.5 or heaven forbid the ML.

                  I will probably be on them again today on the RL or -1 and probably the next day too.
                  Comment
                  • balls2wall
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-20-09
                    • 2642

                    #2669
                    Originally posted by df1000
                    i realize it was only pitt, but 14 strike outs is a great way to start a career.


                    I didn't see any of it, but have been listening to them talk about it on the radio off and on all morning.

                    sounds like he lived up to the hype

                    14 ks
                    Comment
                    • balls2wall
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-20-09
                      • 2642

                      #2670
                      back on the Yanks train again today




                      Wednesday FAV System Play


                      A Bet: NYY -1RL (-203) 2.03 units to win 1 unit
                      Comment
                      • Petman
                        SBR Rookie
                        • 03-19-10
                        • 42

                        #2671
                        I am trying to determine if the -1RL is worth it in some cases. For me, it is only a 15% drop in the juice. Seems too small a drop in the juice to give up a run. Thoughts (other than I am getting screwed by my book)....
                        Comment
                        • balls2wall
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-20-09
                          • 2642

                          #2672
                          Originally posted by Petman
                          I am trying to determine if the -1RL is worth it in some cases. For me, it is only a 15% drop in the juice. Seems too small a drop in the juice to give up a run. Thoughts (other than I am getting screwed by my book)....


                          I know what you are saying, but the problem is when you get to the C and D bets that 15%-20% adds up (multiplies) quickly.
                          Comment
                          • DustyDiamond
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 12-19-09
                            • 772

                            #2673
                            Looks to be Yanks again for another A bet. Opened at -250, this system is doing quite well
                            Comment
                            • NastyStuff
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 12-08-09
                              • 96

                              #2674
                              Yes..looks like the Yanks...but still waiting to see the opener for SDG/NYM...I doubt that will be higher than -250...but ya never know!
                              Comment
                              • balls2wall
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-20-09
                                • 2642

                                #2675
                                Substitute FAV System Record


                                11-0 (+11 units)

                                A: 7
                                B: 3
                                C: 1
                                D: 0
                                Loss: 0



                                REV's FAV System Record

                                19-0 (+25 units)
                                Comment
                                • balls2wall
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-20-09
                                  • 2642

                                  #2676
                                  nvm


                                  didn't realize NYM game isn't up yet


                                  thanks for the heads up nasty


                                  will repost NYY when the mets line comes out unless it is higher
                                  Comment
                                  • NastyStuff
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 12-08-09
                                    • 96

                                    #2677
                                    Originally posted by balls2wall
                                    nvm didn't realize NYM game isn't up yet thanks for the heads up nasty will repost NYY when the mets line comes out unless it is higher
                                    Welcome

                                    2 books are posted with NYM @ -114...so I doubt we will get any surprises....it should be NYY today.
                                    Comment
                                    • df1000
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 05-06-10
                                      • 123

                                      #2678
                                      the red sox this year are such a hit and miss team, its impossible to bet them with any consistency.
                                      Comment
                                      • Lazyboy311
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 05-04-10
                                        • 409

                                        #2679
                                        Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                                        It's seems it's almost automatic with the Yanks this year when they are the big fav. I keep reading posts where guys keep going against them with crap teams and it just is not happening. Is'nt NY like perfect so far when they are a fav of -200 or more? I dunno but this system is as solid as anything that is out there. Thanks for keeping it going here on Rev's thread Balls2wall. Whoops..my computer froze and I keep hitting the transfer button on those points Enjoy
                                        I read about two weeks ago that NYY were something like 23-0 covering the -1.5 RL when they win. Now, I also know that pretty much right after that, they won a game by 1, which busted the streak, but regardless...one "fact" remains to me: When the Yankees are expected to win, not only will they win, they will win big.

                                        Even if they were something like 25-3 on the -1.5 RL (can someone back-check this easily??), a basic analysis would tell you that the <15% of the time that they do NOT cover the -1.5 RL is STILL worth the added value given to you with each individual game line...esp the -1.5 as opposed to -1 RL. Take today for example: NYY are currently (approx avg of top books) -230 SU or -140 -1.5RL. That represents just under a 40% reduction in juice. When comparing this to the (hypothetical) 15% of the time that they will NOT cover -1.5 RL, you still have a nice +EV situation in taking them. Additionally, I would hypothesize that this +EV situation would be magnified in more lopsided matchups as well as by chasing in said matchups.

                                        Therefore, I think that: Until NYY disproves the fact that they are an exceptionally talented team, one will find more value in betting them on the -1.5RL (or -1RL) due to the fact that the value given by the reduction in juice is greater than the value taken by the spread or run line. This results in a positive EV situation, and one that seemingly grows inversely to the talent of their opponent.

                                        (Just to clarify....when NYY do lose in these games, you will lose your bet regardless of RL, SU, whatever. Only difference is you lose less betting RL than you would betting them SU. As I said, WHEN they win, they win big. Support them, but don't be afraid to take the lesser juice on the RL.)
                                        Comment
                                        • balls2wall
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-20-09
                                          • 2642

                                          #2680
                                          Thursday FAV System Play



                                          A Bet: NYY -1RL (-210) risking 2.1 units to win 1 unit
                                          Comment
                                          • balls2wall
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-20-09
                                            • 2642

                                            #2681
                                            Originally posted by df1000
                                            the red sox this year are such a hit and miss team, its impossible to bet them with any consistency.


                                            yeah it is usually when I am on them that they tank, like last night
                                            Comment
                                            • balls2wall
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-20-09
                                              • 2642

                                              #2682
                                              Originally posted by Lazyboy311
                                              I read about two weeks ago that NYY were something like 23-0 covering the -1.5 RL when they win. Now, I also know that pretty much right after that, they won a game by 1, which busted the streak, but regardless...one "fact" remains to me: When the Yankees are expected to win, not only will they win, they will win big.

                                              Even if they were something like 25-3 on the -1.5 RL (can someone back-check this easily??), a basic analysis would tell you that the <15% of the time that they do NOT cover the -1.5 RL is STILL worth the added value given to you with each individual game line...esp the -1.5 as opposed to -1 RL. Take today for example: NYY are currently (approx avg of top books) -230 SU or -140 -1.5RL. That represents just under a 40% reduction in juice. When comparing this to the (hypothetical) 15% of the time that they will NOT cover -1.5 RL, you still have a nice +EV situation in taking them. Additionally, I would hypothesize that this +EV situation would be magnified in more lopsided matchups as well as by chasing in said matchups.

                                              Therefore, I think that: Until NYY disproves the fact that they are an exceptionally talented team, one will find more value in betting them on the -1.5RL (or -1RL) due to the fact that the value given by the reduction in juice is greater than the value taken by the spread or run line. This results in a positive EV situation, and one that seemingly grows inversely to the talent of their opponent.

                                              (Just to clarify....when NYY do lose in these games, you will lose your bet regardless of RL, SU, whatever. Only difference is you lose less betting RL than you would betting them SU. As I said, WHEN they win, they win big. Support them, but don't be afraid to take the lesser juice on the RL.)


                                              good post


                                              i have been on them on the -1.5 several times as well as -1


                                              the official plays will always be -1 though since that is what rev's system is
                                              Comment
                                              • docvinny
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 11-21-09
                                                • 386

                                                #2683
                                                gl on your play today, im on them for one unit
                                                Comment
                                                • DustyDiamond
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 12-19-09
                                                  • 772

                                                  #2684
                                                  Looks to be the Yanks again for a B bet, opened at -290
                                                  Comment
                                                  • NastyStuff
                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                    • 12-08-09
                                                    • 96

                                                    #2685
                                                    Originally posted by DustyDiamond
                                                    Looks to be the Yanks again for a B bet, opened at -290
                                                    I hate this high juice...ya I know...bet the -1R line....but I still like to bitch about the high juice....I hate it...Gulf oil leak, crooked Wall St,...high juice....I hate it ....

                                                    There I'm done for the day....thanks for listening....
                                                    Comment
                                                    • arizona40
                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                      • 05-03-10
                                                      • 73

                                                      #2686
                                                      Bitch away nasty, Bitch away. Oh and B2W good job keeping this thread alive....well done!!!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • balls2wall
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-20-09
                                                        • 2642

                                                        #2687
                                                        Originally posted by NastyStuff
                                                        I hate this high juice...ya I know...bet the -1R line....but I still like to bitch about the high juice....I hate it...Gulf oil leak, crooked Wall St,...high juice....I hate it ....

                                                        There I'm done for the day....thanks for listening....





                                                        bitch away buddy, it helps relieve the stress
                                                        Comment
                                                        • balls2wall
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-20-09
                                                          • 2642

                                                          #2688
                                                          Originally posted by arizona40
                                                          Bitch away nasty, Bitch away. Oh and B2W good job keeping this thread alive....well done!!!


                                                          thanks AZ
                                                          Comment
                                                          • balls2wall
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-20-09
                                                            • 2642

                                                            #2689
                                                            back on the yanks today with the B bet




                                                            Friday FAV System Play


                                                            B Bet: NYY -1RL (-215) risking 6.66 units to win 3.1 units (1 unit profit)
                                                            Comment
                                                            • df1000
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 05-06-10
                                                              • 123

                                                              #2690
                                                              one of the things i have noticed is that if the under is 6.5, the game usually is an under. i wonder why that is.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • FireMedic1614
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 03-05-10
                                                                • 1255

                                                                #2691
                                                                No concern that the astros just swept the rockies rev? I love the yanks also but almost 300 juice sucks
                                                                Comment
                                                                • NastyStuff
                                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                                  • 12-08-09
                                                                  • 96

                                                                  #2692
                                                                  So it's Yanks again today as the FAV...come on...this is getting boring!!!...give somebody else a chance to be the daily FAV...at least they are only at -220 today....juice is still high...bloody high juice...crooked Wall ST....Gulf oil leak...thank you for being there for me...you people are so therapeutic...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • dynamitappletini
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 03-27-10
                                                                    • 917

                                                                    #2693
                                                                    hm didn't play but Yanks was a push yesterday right? what happens with the system then?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • NastyStuff
                                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                                      • 12-08-09
                                                                      • 96

                                                                      #2694
                                                                      Originally posted by dynamitappletini
                                                                      hm didn't play but Yanks was a push yesterday right? what happens with the system then?
                                                                      You can either:
                                                                      a) pretend the game didn't happen and make another "B" bet if you played a -1RL yesterday, or

                                                                      b) move your chase to a "C" bet (which doesn't make much sense as you didn't lose any money on the -1R L bet if you went that way last night)...if you are betting straight ML on this then you would have won your bet and go back to an "A" bet today.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • balls2wall
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 12-20-09
                                                                        • 2642

                                                                        #2695
                                                                        Originally posted by NastyStuff
                                                                        You can either:
                                                                        a) pretend the game didn't happen and make another "B" bet if you played a -1RL yesterday, or

                                                                        b) move your chase to a "C" bet (which doesn't make much sense as you didn't lose any money on the -1R L bet if you went that way last night)...if you are betting straight ML on this then you would have won your bet and go back to an "A" bet today.



                                                                        Yeah, like nasty said


                                                                        for the official posted system plays it is as though the game never happened and it will be another B bet today
                                                                        Comment
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