yANKEES looking good ^^
Reverend's 2010 MLB
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diegoelmestreSBR Wise Guy
- 12-30-09
- 510
#2661Comment -
DustyDiamondSBR Wise Guy
- 12-19-09
- 772
#2662Nice win for the FAV systemtough night for pimike's double play system play
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pistoleroSBR Rookie
- 10-04-08
- 9
#2663Does anyone know abut Reverend? is he going to be back & posting plays? I know he was going to take a break,, any info please drop it here
GreetingsComment -
balls2wallSBR MVP
- 12-20-09
- 2642
#2664Substitute FAV System Record
10-0 (+10 units)
A: 6
B: 3
C: 1
D: 0
Loss: 0
REV's FAV System Record
19-0 (+25 units)Comment -
GGPLAYERSBR MVP
- 03-26-09
- 2981
#2665It's seems it's almost automatic with the Yanks this year when they are the big fav. I keep reading posts where guys keep going against them with crap teams and it just is not happening. Is'nt NY like perfect so far when they are a fav of -200 or more? I dunno but this system is as solid as anything that is out there. Thanks for keeping it going here on Rev's thread Balls2wall.
Whoops..my computer froze and I keep hitting the transfer button on those pointsEnjoy
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JVP3122SBR MVP
- 05-02-09
- 1048
#2666It's seems it's almost automatic with the Yanks this year when they are the big fav. I keep reading posts where guys keep going against them with crap teams and it just is not happening. Is'nt NY like perfect so far when they are a fav of -200 or more? I dunno but this system is as solid as anything that is out there. Thanks for keeping it going here on Rev's thread Balls2wall.Comment -
df1000SBR High Roller
- 05-06-10
- 123
#2667i realize it was only pitt, but 14 strike outs is a great way to start a career.Comment -
balls2wallSBR MVP
- 12-20-09
- 2642
#2668It's seems it's almost automatic with the Yanks this year when they are the big fav. I keep reading posts where guys keep going against them with crap teams and it just is not happening. Is'nt NY like perfect so far when they are a fav of -200 or more? I dunno but this system is as solid as anything that is out there. Thanks for keeping it going here on Rev's thread Balls2wall.
Whoops..my computer froze and I keep hitting the transfer button on those pointsEnjoy
thanks GG
I appreciate the points
I was on the Yanks -1 yesterday and felt comfy with it. I saw several people on the Os, but I liked backing one of the best teams in baseball against the worst team rather than hoping the Os could keep it within a run on the +1.5 or heaven forbid the ML.
I will probably be on them again today on the RL or -1 and probably the next day too.Comment -
balls2wallSBR MVP
- 12-20-09
- 2642
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balls2wallSBR MVP
- 12-20-09
- 2642
#2670back on the Yanks train again today
Wednesday FAV System Play
A Bet: NYY -1RL (-203) 2.03 units to win 1 unitComment -
PetmanSBR Rookie
- 03-19-10
- 42
#2671I am trying to determine if the -1RL is worth it in some cases. For me, it is only a 15% drop in the juice. Seems too small a drop in the juice to give up a run. Thoughts (other than I am getting screwed by my book)....Comment -
balls2wallSBR MVP
- 12-20-09
- 2642
#2672
I know what you are saying, but the problem is when you get to the C and D bets that 15%-20% adds up (multiplies) quickly.Comment -
DustyDiamondSBR Wise Guy
- 12-19-09
- 772
#2673Looks to be Yanks again for another A bet. Opened at -250, this system is doing quite wellComment -
NastyStuffSBR Hustler
- 12-08-09
- 96
#2674Yes..looks like the Yanks...but still waiting to see the opener for SDG/NYM...I doubt that will be higher than -250...but ya never know!Comment -
balls2wallSBR MVP
- 12-20-09
- 2642
#2675Substitute FAV System Record
11-0 (+11 units)
A: 7
B: 3
C: 1
D: 0
Loss: 0
REV's FAV System Record
19-0 (+25 units)Comment -
balls2wallSBR MVP
- 12-20-09
- 2642
#2676nvm
didn't realize NYM game isn't up yet
thanks for the heads up nasty
will repost NYY when the mets line comes out unless it is higher
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NastyStuffSBR Hustler
- 12-08-09
- 96
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df1000SBR High Roller
- 05-06-10
- 123
#2678the red sox this year are such a hit and miss team, its impossible to bet them with any consistency.Comment -
Lazyboy311SBR Sharp
- 05-04-10
- 409
#2679It's seems it's almost automatic with the Yanks this year when they are the big fav. I keep reading posts where guys keep going against them with crap teams and it just is not happening. Is'nt NY like perfect so far when they are a fav of -200 or more? I dunno but this system is as solid as anything that is out there. Thanks for keeping it going here on Rev's thread Balls2wall. Whoops..my computer froze and I keep hitting the transfer button on those pointsEnjoy
Even if they were something like 25-3 on the -1.5 RL (can someone back-check this easily??), a basic analysis would tell you that the <15% of the time that they do NOT cover the -1.5 RL is STILL worth the added value given to you with each individual game line...esp the -1.5 as opposed to -1 RL. Take today for example: NYY are currently (approx avg of top books) -230 SU or -140 -1.5RL. That represents just under a 40% reduction in juice. When comparing this to the (hypothetical) 15% of the time that they will NOT cover -1.5 RL, you still have a nice +EV situation in taking them. Additionally, I would hypothesize that this +EV situation would be magnified in more lopsided matchups as well as by chasing in said matchups.
Therefore, I think that: Until NYY disproves the fact that they are an exceptionally talented team, one will find more value in betting them on the -1.5RL (or -1RL) due to the fact that the value given by the reduction in juice is greater than the value taken by the spread or run line. This results in a positive EV situation, and one that seemingly grows inversely to the talent of their opponent.
(Just to clarify....when NYY do lose in these games, you will lose your bet regardless of RL, SU, whatever. Only difference is you lose less betting RL than you would betting them SU. As I said, WHEN they win, they win big. Support them, but don't be afraid to take the lesser juice on the RL.)Comment -
balls2wallSBR MVP
- 12-20-09
- 2642
#2680Thursday FAV System Play
A Bet: NYY -1RL (-210) risking 2.1 units to win 1 unitComment -
balls2wallSBR MVP
- 12-20-09
- 2642
#2682I read about two weeks ago that NYY were something like 23-0 covering the -1.5 RL when they win. Now, I also know that pretty much right after that, they won a game by 1, which busted the streak, but regardless...one "fact" remains to me: When the Yankees are expected to win, not only will they win, they will win big.
Even if they were something like 25-3 on the -1.5 RL (can someone back-check this easily??), a basic analysis would tell you that the <15% of the time that they do NOT cover the -1.5 RL is STILL worth the added value given to you with each individual game line...esp the -1.5 as opposed to -1 RL. Take today for example: NYY are currently (approx avg of top books) -230 SU or -140 -1.5RL. That represents just under a 40% reduction in juice. When comparing this to the (hypothetical) 15% of the time that they will NOT cover -1.5 RL, you still have a nice +EV situation in taking them. Additionally, I would hypothesize that this +EV situation would be magnified in more lopsided matchups as well as by chasing in said matchups.
Therefore, I think that: Until NYY disproves the fact that they are an exceptionally talented team, one will find more value in betting them on the -1.5RL (or -1RL) due to the fact that the value given by the reduction in juice is greater than the value taken by the spread or run line. This results in a positive EV situation, and one that seemingly grows inversely to the talent of their opponent.
(Just to clarify....when NYY do lose in these games, you will lose your bet regardless of RL, SU, whatever. Only difference is you lose less betting RL than you would betting them SU. As I said, WHEN they win, they win big. Support them, but don't be afraid to take the lesser juice on the RL.)
good post
i have been on them on the -1.5 several times as well as -1
the official plays will always be -1 though since that is what rev's system isComment -
docvinnySBR Sharp
- 11-21-09
- 386
#2683gl on your play today, im on them for one unitComment -
DustyDiamondSBR Wise Guy
- 12-19-09
- 772
#2684Looks to be the Yanks again for a B bet, opened at -290Comment -
NastyStuffSBR Hustler
- 12-08-09
- 96
#2685I hate this high juice...ya I know...bet the -1R line....but I still like to bitch about the high juice....I hate it...Gulf oil leak, crooked Wall St,...high juice....I hate it ....
There I'm done for the day....thanks for listening....Comment -
arizona40SBR Hustler
- 05-03-10
- 73
#2686Bitch away nasty, Bitch away. Oh and B2W good job keeping this thread alive....well done!!!Comment -
balls2wallSBR MVP
- 12-20-09
- 2642
#2687
bitch away buddy, it helps relieve the stressComment -
balls2wallSBR MVP
- 12-20-09
- 2642
#2689back on the yanks today with the B bet
Friday FAV System Play
B Bet: NYY -1RL (-215) risking 6.66 units to win 3.1 units (1 unit profit)Comment -
df1000SBR High Roller
- 05-06-10
- 123
#2690one of the things i have noticed is that if the under is 6.5, the game usually is an under. i wonder why that is.Comment -
FireMedic1614SBR MVP
- 03-05-10
- 1255
#2691No concern that the astros just swept the rockies rev? I love the yanks also but almost 300 juice sucksComment -
NastyStuffSBR Hustler
- 12-08-09
- 96
#2692So it's Yanks again today as the FAV...come on...this is getting boring!!!...give somebody else a chance to be the daily FAV...at least they are only at -220 today....juice is still high...bloody high juice...crooked Wall ST....Gulf oil leak...thank you for being there for me...you people are so therapeutic...Comment -
dynamitappletiniRestricted User
- 03-27-10
- 917
#2693hm didn't play but Yanks was a push yesterday right? what happens with the system then?Comment -
NastyStuffSBR Hustler
- 12-08-09
- 96
#2694
a) pretend the game didn't happen and make another "B" bet if you played a -1RL yesterday, or
b) move your chase to a "C" bet (which doesn't make much sense as you didn't lose any money on the -1R L bet if you went that way last night)...if you are betting straight ML on this then you would have won your bet and go back to an "A" bet today.Comment -
balls2wallSBR MVP
- 12-20-09
- 2642
#2695You can either:
a) pretend the game didn't happen and make another "B" bet if you played a -1RL yesterday, or
b) move your chase to a "C" bet (which doesn't make much sense as you didn't lose any money on the -1R L bet if you went that way last night)...if you are betting straight ML on this then you would have won your bet and go back to an "A" bet today.
Yeah, like nasty said
for the official posted system plays it is as though the game never happened and it will be another B bet todayComment
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