damn.. games started early and i didn't make the bets... arghhh
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Did anyone really bet at these exact odds and amount? Just wondering now while the games are still undecided....
So at this point you are risking 3400 to win 200? Just for the sake of a win?
And 2100 to win 200 ....
SO 5500 to win 400??? Did anyone do this???? You would finish up 4 units while risking 55? Anyone see a problem here?
Obvious where the work is needed guys...
MONEY MANAGEMENT Risk/reward...this should never happen....Comment -
Hopefully Rev mentions something about this when he works on his system. I looked at your money management, and it obviously works well. I'm curious to see what Rev has to say. I still contend we consider using -1RL in the meantime if you don't like the high juice. If you get a push then the system is over.Comment -
Not me, I just got the closing odds at one of my books and figured it up. Only C Bet I would have had would have been Boston. I played Tampa the very first game of the four game set as it was one of your System plays G. Tampa one the first game and that was it for me with Tampa no point in pushing your luck and starting another system series within the same series. Passed on Boston due to the fact that Millwood is a better pitcher than his 0-3 record, he was only gave up 12ER in his starts but the O's have only scored 13 runs in his games. Millwood could easily be 3-1 or 2-1.Comment -
Sounds like no one took on that great a burden...well even if they win...no score in either now...better to be safe than sorry. The rev did not list any bet amounts before the game so i am not going to say he took on that kind of risk either... Seeing he just said be careful...hopefully everyone did that...
When you guys throw out ideas for changes and maybe go back to one system also remember post #1 in my thread on money management and risk/reward......it worked last year and up to now this year... GL guys...Comment -
thx revComment -
Also you cannot be listing 4 plays and be 3 and 1 and be down. I would suggest going back to one system and a complete overhaul in the money management...whether the games win or lose some I am sure some got hammered and did not even play a small "C" bet.
Remember the odds are these plays or at least one of them win...that is why they are the favorites...the problem came in the 55 to win 4 ratio. Well rooting for you guys today...whether you played it or not...
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I know there is a lof og games left, but boston is a team that always seems to scare me(A,B, or C bet )Comment -
I scaled back on my B bets yesterday thinking about how much I would have to play if it went to C. I can still eek out a small profit today if they hit. If they don't, I am down a just a little for the week and can live to see another day.
Starting with my A Bet on Boston: to win 1 unit($30) was a LOSS, so B Bet was ($60) to win $8 profit was a LOSS. C bet today is ($155) to win $10 for series.
Tampa Bay to win 1 unit ($30) LOSS- B Bet ($80) to win $1.00 profit- C bet today is $160 to win $11 for the series.
I'm somewhat conservative as I'm just happy to win my money back basically if I lose an A Bet. Your bets can get up there quickly especially with these high favorite lines. I'm checking out your conservative system G and think I will implement it into my plays as well. You got a good thing going on over there. I know I have got to tweak my money management a little bit and take a loss on a series at the B or C level so you don't give away the gains you made for the week. This is my first week following a progressive style system so you live and learn.
Good luck guys lets end these series on a high note!!Comment -
The fallacy in all chase money management schemes is that they will fail at the worst time (that time being a complete loss of your bankroll). Professional traders know proper risk/reward ratios (your objective is to make more on a trade in terms of multiples than you are risking). That concept is reversed with chase "money management" by many in sports betting and is the very reason that professional sports bettors will not chase. Chase money management (should be called monetary destruction) appeals to those that have never taken a college level course in statistics. Guys wake up before you lose all your bankroll.
A 1/2 Kelly Money Management (which I have on my site) is the safest way to bet on sports and ironically is also the fastest way to compound your bankroll. Throw Martingale in the trash where it belongs.Comment -
Maybe you should post the 1/2 kelly here to help others... Today there were no wager guidelines listed... Hopefully everyone played it safe as suggested... The ratio just became horrible... As I mentioned earlier both or at least one should win..and neither is over but one is winning and the other tied as I write..so hopefully they hold on...
In my system there is very little risk obviously because I am wagering much less on the unit end, but also because I am using just one system. I think this and my system will continue to win but if you have something to help...why not post it here?
Also someone asked earlier about my guidelines of .2 to 2 units...that would also be because realistically we are all betting different amounts too. So you are basing your plays on different wager amounts..Comment -
Tb = bingoComment -
That is the whole idea...preserving winnings and taking a loss once in a while... should be no big deal. The rev received a ton of pressure on the thread because of two games..it should have never got to this point... When your see you risk to win ratios way out of whack work on them! I am sure the corrections will be made hang in their guys....Comment -
congrats to anyone who had the balls to play the TB game
not me...Comment -
I'd just like to congratulate anyone that had the balls to play TB on the C bet. My parlays are looking good...I just need StL and SF to cover the run lines and I'm up about $700 on less than $100 wagered.Comment -
I just hit a 3 team parlay on NYY RL, FLA RL and ARI-CHC over 10. This coming from just gut feelings and totally noob MLB experience. But to be honest, I did check out some info on the ARI-CHC pitchers.
Good luck on the rest of the games!Comment -
Noticed no one posted anything for a while...my thoughts...
Ok guys revs system lost over 32 units total on the red sox loss/series...lets not have everyone start ragging... he is going to work on it...and another "C" loss for him......so be patient losses will happen this is a long season...
At least for those of you playing the TB series did turn a +2 units and a +2 unit probably on Cards? No amounts were listed...
Not a good day for the system unit wise in total due to Boston...but it was a 2-1 day and once the rev makes the risk/reward adjustments which will probably include smaller unit size bets everything should start rolling again...show your support overall most of you should still be up...stay positive its a longgggg season....
So hopefully in the end you all used caution as was suggested...Comment -
Personally, I played TB/BOS as parlays all weekend and ended up losing about 6 units.
Not because I didn't see it coming, but the risk was too great to chase a couple of units.
I never would have thought these 2 series would have gone 2-5 combined although the way Boston has been performing probably influenced my decision. Frankly, I was more concerned about Greinke.
Anyway, BR is still intact and the SAWX will be definitely filtered out of anything I do in the future until they show they can hit and hold a lead. My 2 pennies worth.
Time to move on.
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Noticed no one posted anything for a while...my thoughts...
Ok guys revs system lost over 32 units total on the red sox loss/series...lets not have everyone start ragging... he is going to work on it...and another "C" loss for him......so be patient losses will happen this is a long season...
At least for those of you playing the TB series did turn a +2 units and a +2 unit probably on Cards? No amounts were listed...
Not a good day for the system unit wise in total due to Boston...but it was a 2-1 day and once the rev makes the risk/reward adjustments which will probably include smaller unit size bets everything should start rolling again...show your support overall most of you should still be up...stay positive its a longgggg season....
So hopefully in the end you all used caution as was suggested...
thanks for all the contributions to the thread G
took my first series loss with BOS today
bailed out of the TB series too though so that didn't help
still up a decent amount with these for the year so gonna think about some things and keep plugging away
as we have all said all along, there will be some losses here and there so let's shrug it off
let's make some good decisions and have a good week to rebound for anyone who came out in the red for the weekComment -
Personally, I played TB/BOS as parlays all weekend and ended up losing about 6 units.
Not because I didn't see it coming, but the risk was too great to chase a couple of units.
I never would have thought these 2 series would have gone 2-5 combined although the way Boston has been performing probably influenced my decision. Frankly, I was more concerned about Greinke.
Anyway, BR is still intact and the SAWX will be definitely filtered out of anything I do in the future until they show they can hit and hold a lead. My 2 pennies worth.
Time to move on.
yeah, I have been avoiding the sox all year in these chases, but bit on it this time
I won't be back on them for a while for sure
glad to see you only lost 6 units on those 2
wish I could say the sameComment -
Rev has done a good job even though the units took a good hit today. The system is up a decent amount even with two C loss bets this week. I never would of thought Boston would get swept by Baltimore. It's the first time Baltimore has swept a three-game set against the Red Sox in Baltimore since Sept. 2-4, 1974. The Orioles did sweep a four-game series from Boston at Camden Yards in 1998.Comment -
Pretty pathetic showing by the Sox. It's gonna be awhile before I feel comfortable chasing themComment -
Yeah they certainly don't look like the Red Sox of old. Sickening to see how they blew it today. Papelbon walked Markakis then threw the ball away to first allowing him to move to second. He then gives up a double...game over. Read Papelbon came in with a 0.87 ERA against Baltimore in 33 career appearances.Comment -
I think part of the Red Sox problems is Ortiz's attitude...Comment -
The Red Sox aren't playing like they are capable of! Rev can't help that! Great System, terrible play by SoxComment -
BoSox
BoSox weekend hurt quite a bit ... That team has tekn me down a couple times, but this time .vs Baltimore!!! Wow!! off of them for a LONG timeComment -
The sad thing is that today and Friday they were playing exactly like they're capable of. Decent pitching, although it should get better, but the Red Sox can't hit. If their pitching has an off night then they're in trouble, because they can't hit their way out of a paper bag.Comment -
Guys I lost my first system series of the year on Seattle tonight As i said on friday I did not bet any games this weekend but the loss would count in the system totals as did the two wins......they went into the 9th up 1-0 and a 3 hitter by Fister...enter Aardsma another blown save... 11th inning SF and a pass ball to seal the deal for texas... guys you cannot control the horrible play of these teams you can cap these games right and the players just decide they do not want to play sometimes...that is life time to move on...
GL this week to the rev and everyone here....there is no such thing as a perfect system unless you are John Morrison and you just invent a filter to eliminate losses you already have...Comment -
Ok guys it's been a fun ride but Im done. With the 3 C losses in one week (Houston, RedSox with Rev, and Seattle with G's system) that literally wiped out the profits from the first 3 weeks. I maintained strict money management as outlined and I don't think anyone can convince me this will be profitable over a season. As I have stated in previous posts this was the first year I played this type of system. I followed this thread weeks/months before the season started and it seemed very realistic to go through the season without a series loss (based on several years of back testing). Without looking at the stats I believe the last few years only had one or two series losses for the entire season. There have been (3) in one week and as we all know they sting a little. I wish you all well and hopefully these will be the only series losses for the year and you guys can rebound from this week and hit another long streak
Good Luck.Comment -
Khaden in my thread if you ever took the time to read it...I said to expect a series loss one out of every fourteen series, or approximately seven percent of the time. So obviously at that pace the rev and I are way ahead of pace...and both easily showing a positive cash flow. I think the rev needs to adjust his risk/reward ratios and unfortunately that will mean it gets much harder you have to weed out teams that are not -300 in every game in late May and June... this will cause some losses but that should be fine. A series loss once in a while with proper money management is to be expected... But good luck with your plays...
The revs picks have been great and maybe a system or two less and smaller risk amounts will make it easier to handle a loss... I am sure not everyone is down...in fact I actually received a few pm's and a few posts in my thread after the loss showing support.
More than when I win actually...that is great...the rev will work through it...and this thread should continue to be a plus thread...GL with your plays the rest of the year.
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I am a newbie and love the work u guys put in. My feeling from researching seasons past is that as the season goes on and we develop a feel for the teams, wont this system be even more successful? In april we have somewhat of an idea of what teams will play well, but who would have predicted nats would be over .500 for example? I am thrilled to be showing a profit. i would think june and july will be awesome for this system. I am pleased with how well i did monetary wise for april. I know my opinion isn't worth a sh*t, just want to thank G and Reverend for their excellent work and hope to be in this thread in august flush with cash along with everyone else!!
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