Reverend's 2010 MLB

**reverend** · 04-19-10, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by mizzoujohn

Rev- Are you taking Rays or Sox in that series?

Taking the Rays

Again, those are not final plays yet, but the Marlins, Rays and Twins are pretty much locked in. I still have some work to do on the others.

**mizzoujohn** · 04-19-10, 01:25 PM

ok. I thought so but figured I'd ask since the Sox were such a good home team the last few years- and some were considering using them as a 'no home team sweep' system pick this year.
John

**jolmscheid** · 04-19-10, 01:39 PM

Rev are you going to continue to do the ML on the first bet or are you going to be doing the -1 RL on the first bet like john and then do the last two bets on the ML?

**tokio** · 04-19-10, 01:42 PM

with you on the marlins Rev. G/L today!

**balls2wall** · 04-19-10, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by dickey

foudn it post 336 for others.. but it says i dont have access to the file

Go back to the mlb forum and find this thread. Click on the paper clip to the right of "last page" and it will show all files attached in this thread. Use one of the ones that say RL CALC.

The one that says -1rl calculator is not nearly as good.

**reverend** · 04-19-10, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by mizzoujohn

ok. I thought so but figured I'd ask since the Sox were such a good home team the last few years- and some were considering using them as a 'no home team sweep' system pick this year.
John

It was a good question. To be honest, at the beginning of the year, I thought the White Sox had a solid chance to be a great team, and they still may, but right now, that are not playing well at all!

And as I see it, I would say the Rays are one of the top 2 teams in the league.

**reverend** · 04-19-10, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Rev are you going to continue to do the ML on the first bet or are you going to be doing the -1 RL on the first bet like john and then do the last two bets on the ML?

For today's games, I am sticking with the ML because the juice is lower on all 3. But moving forward, I will say when I am doing the -1 RL. It will usually be with heavier favorites.

**reverend** · 04-19-10, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by dickey

foudn it post 336 for others.. but it says i dont have access to the file

The excel -1 RL calculator is posted in post 337.

Were you not able to open it? If not, I will ask the mods to make sure it is available to everyone.

Thanks for pointing that out.

**khaden** · 04-19-10, 03:42 PM

Rev--put me on the dumb ass list that played the Red Sox on the C bet today--ouch! Oh well-my betting week starts on Mondays so I am obviously starting out in the hole. I will be increasing my unit size this week (this is scheduled not because of the loss) so I can still recover between now and Sunday night.

**Sawyer** · 04-19-10, 04:08 PM

Liked Seattle Chase.. GL Amigo!

**Betting Guru** · 04-19-10, 05:11 PM

i'm with you rev

**linedrivr** · 04-19-10, 05:20 PM

Nice thread reverend and very informational. quick question. if you are playing a $100 a unit, what kind of bankroll would you start out with on just the 'Series' system plays where your goal is $75k by seasons end?

**canepole** · 04-19-10, 06:08 PM

i am glad tofind you on this forum appreciate all your write ups and expertise.

**TNT28** · 04-19-10, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by linedrivr

Nice thread reverend and very informational. quick question. if you are playing a $100 a unit, what kind of bankroll would you start out with on just the 'Series' system plays where your goal is $75k by seasons end?

When I found Rev's thread I was already a little over $2k and that's what Rev started with. So like Rev, I started playing it aggressive at 5% but as the wins add up and you progress by a half unit, it brings the % risked down getting closer to 2-3% I believe. I haven't done the math exactly but $100 units with a $2k roll is 5% and when you get to $4k and have $150 units it is only 3.7-3.8% So I believe it will reduce gradually, huh Rev?

**reverend** · 04-19-10, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by TNT28

When I found Rev's thread I was already a little over $2k and that's what Rev started with. So like Rev, I started playing it aggressive at 5% but as the wins add up and you progress by a half unit, it brings the % risked down getting closer to 2-3% I believe. I haven't done the math exactly but $100 units with a $2k roll is 5% and when you get to $4k and have $150 units it is only 3.7-3.8% So I believe it will reduce gradually, huh Rev?

TNT is correct. I began the season with 2K and was trying to win 5% per series. As the season progresses, the percentage will come down. But at the end of the day, like I have told a number of guys, you need to work through an A, B and C bet and be willing to lose that amount on a given series. Our hope is for that not to happen, but it needs to be on your radar.

**HoldEmHook!!** · 04-19-10, 07:53 PM

well you got me tailing also

**terrortwylight** · 04-19-10, 08:01 PM

REV, or anybody.. will somebody please lay this out for me in an example. i know the instructions are on the first page but i'm not quite clear on how you guys do this.. i'm very intrigued, though.

so here's one of tonights games:
orioles (bergesen R)
mariners (fister R)

if we take mariners -1 RL and we win, what happens next?
if we take mariners -1 RL and we lose, what happens next?
or, what if we took either team just on the ML. what would the next move be?

sorry, i just want to make sure i understand this system. i'd love to give it a shot.

thanks guys!!

**linedrivr** · 04-19-10, 08:04 PM

appreciate it guys. I was thinking $2500 to be safe but wasn't sure. I want to play along side you gentleman beginning Thursday when the next round starts and see where it ends up after Baseball season. I hope you don't mind me tagging along to learn something new. Ive got to figure out which book i want to use for these wagers. I currently have 5Dimes, Diamond and Greek that I use for my regular sports and horse wagering. I think I will go ahead and open a new account with Matchy and use that account for this system so I can track results in one account. Ill be ready to roll by Thursday.

look forward to the ride.

**Kemalettin** · 04-19-10, 08:12 PM

wow lots of $$$$$ on mariners..i put some money too

**Djtrikee** · 04-19-10, 08:33 PM

I wanna make a 350 dollar bet on two teams tonight. I know Seattle, but unsure about the other games. Angels?? Giants?? Not sure who to take or if I should take over 8 runs in Seattle game Can I have some insight Rev..Thanks!!

**linedrivr** · 04-19-10, 08:40 PM

Originally posted by Djtrikee

I wanna make a 350 dollar bet on two teams tonight. I know Seattle, but unsure about the other games. Angels?? Giants?? Not sure who to take or if I should take over 8 runs in Seattle game Can I have some insight Rev..Thanks!!

Im on St Louis, Mets and Toronto tonight. maybe St Louis?

**khaden** · 04-19-10, 10:07 PM

Rev i really hope this doesn't happen but if it comes down to this are you planning on playing the c bet on the rockies?

**JW Cash** · 04-19-10, 10:20 PM

Originally posted by reverend

TNT is correct. I began the season with 2K and was trying to win 5% per series. As the season progresses, the percentage will come down. But at the end of the day, like I have told a number of guys, you need to work through an A, B and C bet and be willing to lose that amount on a given series. Our hope is for that not to happen, but it needs to be on your radar.

My money management strategy has always been to recover a Bet C loss
by absorbing the loss thru future upcoming series.......

When I lose a C Bet...it was just to recover what was lost at Bet A and Bet B

...so when I win a C Bet.....my W/L for that series is 0$...which is just fine..

I attach a certain pct of a C Bet loss to my upcoming stronger series even though I may have to wait a couple days for the right recover series that I want..... but it has always
worked out in the long run.....

And.............Rev....you are doing a helluva job !!!

**Cosmo213** · 04-19-10, 10:32 PM

I don't mean to brag or shove it in anyone's face, but because of the last Washington series I actually faded Rev this time around. I took the Nats +1.5 for my A bet.

Maybe I have an advantage over you guys in this case, but I live in south-eastern PA. I'm very close to Maryland so I get a mix of PA and MD channels. I have actually SEEN the Nationals play on TV (they share a channel with the O's) and I tell you they are not a team to automatically fade unless they're playing a top-tier team (or Marquis is pitching

). IMO they are a middle-tier team and can contend with just about anyone in that range or lower, at least at home. They've only played the Mets (won the series 2-1) and the Phillies (lost series 1-2) so it remains to be seen how they fare on the road against more diverse competition. But they could be a live dog to chase this year, and a team like that plays extremely well with a chase system as there is only linear growth from A to B to C when betting on +100 or better. Something to think about.

**JW Cash** · 04-19-10, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by Cosmo213

I don't mean to brag or shove it in anyone's face, but because of the last Washington series I actually faded Rev this time around. I took the Nats +1.5 for my A bet.

Maybe I have an advantage over you guys in this case, but I live in south-eastern PA. I'm very close to Maryland so I get a mix of PA and MD channels. I have actually SEEN the Nationals play on TV (they share a channel with the O's) and I tell you they are not a team to automatically fade unless they're playing a top-tier team (or Marquis is pitching

). IMO they are a middle-tier team and can contend with just about anyone in that range or lower, at least at home. They've only played the Mets (won the series 2-1) and the Phillies (lost series 1-2) so it remains to be seen how they fare on the road against more diverse competition. But they could be a live dog to chase this year, and a team like that plays extremely well with a chase system as there is only linear growth from A to B to C when betting on +100 or better. Something to think about.

I will be making money this year in selected 3 game series situations
with the Washington Nationals going OVER....

I see it already shaping up...........stay tuned.......

**khaden** · 04-19-10, 11:22 PM

...

Originally posted by JW Cash

I will be making money this year in selected 3 game series situations
with the Washington Nationals going OVER....

I see it already shaping up...........stay tuned.......

I agree I watched them play several times this year as well. I made a post this weekend when we played against them in the brews series. The nationals are playing very good baseball and appear to much better so far this year. Rev please be careful the nationals are dangerous.

**reverend** · 04-19-10, 11:30 PM

Originally posted by reverend

Monday April 19:

FAV System:

A Bet: Seattle (-1 RL) 1.05 Units to Win 1 Unit

Series System:

A Bet: Angels (ML) 2.63 Units to Win 1.5 Units

A Bet: Seattle (ML) 2.25 Units to Win 1.5 Units

Situational System:

A Bet: Colorado (ML) 2.18 Units to Win 1.5 Units

*Same picks as above, but I included the Units Risked

Monday April 19:

3-0 (+4 Units)

Pending Series: 1

**reverend** · 04-19-10, 11:35 PM

Guys...

I will try to get back and post in a few hours, but if I am not able to to that, I will be posting tomorrow's plays in the morning. All the games tomorrow are in the evening, so we should be alright.

**Cosmo213** · 04-19-10, 11:38 PM

Angels and all Mariners bets cash!

+16 SBR points for me!

**Barroco** · 04-19-10, 11:39 PM

Mariners, NICE. Thanks Rev.

**SkivChef** · 04-19-10, 11:45 PM

Angels, Mariners and Jays here!

**JW Cash** · 04-19-10, 11:48 PM

Nice Day Rev......

**Grosshhit** · 04-20-10, 12:13 AM

Great day Rev! Nats have to drop one of these four games.

**EvergrenMoneyMoB** · 04-20-10, 12:25 AM

great work reverend..keep it up..

**dolphan34** · 04-20-10, 12:43 AM

Yea nice job Rev, I was a little afraid placing them, but definitely paid out. Thanks.