The bombCanada MLB Runline Chase

johnolerud9 · 04-11-10, 10:52 PM

Book it!!!
successfull week for me with the system!!!! for now I guess

bombCanada · 04-12-10, 05:55 AM

Originally posted by johnolerud9

Book it!!!
successfull week for me with the system!!!! for now I guess

Hi johnolerud, congratulations to both of us, after a 4 hour rain delay. But are you concerned that the system will stop working (seems unlikely but could happen), or are you thinking about quitting the system after a week of heart-stopping action??

bombCanada · 04-12-10, 08:41 AM

4/11 Win:

ATL 3
SF 6 (4 hour rain delay)

First 2 weeks:
Games 3 - 2 - 2
Chase 3 - 0
Game Profit: $17.32
Season Profit: $24.74

bombCanada · 04-12-10, 09:08 AM

For 4/12

STL ML $6.75 to win $3.25 (-208)
STL RL $3.25 to win $3.51 (+108)

johnolerud9 · 04-12-10, 09:36 AM

That's not the biggest fav, as phi is higher, just wondering how the decision is being made here

bombCanada · 04-12-10, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by johnolerud9

That's not the biggest fav, as phi is higher, just wondering how the decision is being made here

One of the objectives of the -1 RL wager is to try to reduce juice. Therefore I at least want the -1.5 RL portion of the wager to be at least slightly positive. Since to use PHL would require juice on both the ML and RL wagers, I moved one rung down the ladder.

I intend to post an updated set of rules at the end of the 2 week period and I will include this explanation.

johnolerud9 · 04-12-10, 06:56 PM

great, it makes sense that it would be too expensive.
Well cards and phillies both win.

bombCanada · 04-13-10, 02:04 AM

4/12 Win:

HOU 0
STL 5

First 2 weeks:
Games 4 - 2 - 2
Chase 4 - 0
Game Profit: $6.75
Season Profit: $31.49
Largest Single Game Risk: $23.66
Longest Chase: 2 games

bombCanada · 04-13-10, 07:39 AM

For 4/13

SF ML $6.44 to win $3.56 (-181)
SF RL $3.56 to win $4.09 (+115) (line at Bookmaker)

bombCanada · 04-14-10, 06:51 AM

4/13 Game Loss

PIT 6
SF 5

First 2 weeks:
Games 4 - 3 - 2
Chase 4 - 0
Game Profit: $10.00
Season Profit: $21.49

bombCanada · 04-14-10, 07:06 AM

For 4/14

COL ML $14.50 to win $8.29 (-175)
COL RL $8.29 to win $9.53 (+115)

johnolerud9 · 04-14-10, 08:11 PM

damn, got home to late to put it in...........do i use the next one as my second stage?

bombCanada · 04-15-10, 07:06 AM

4/14 Push

NYM 5
COL 6 (10 innings)

First 2 weeks:
Games 4 - 3 - 3
Chase 4 - 0
Game Profit: $0.00
Season Profit: $21.49

bombCanada · 04-15-10, 07:10 AM

Originally posted by johnolerud9

damn, got home to late to put it in...........do i use the next one as my second stage?

Yesterday was a push, so the amount risked will still be a B bet.

If there had been a winner yesterday, I'd eat the loss and move on.

If yesterday had been a loss, I'd play it as a B bet even tho the system would be on a C bet.

bombCanada · 04-15-10, 09:32 AM

For 4/15

PHI ML $19.15 to win $8.40 (-228)
PHI RL $8.40 to win $7.30 (-115)

Going with PHI even tho the RL lays odds.

bombCanada · 04-16-10, 09:25 AM

4/15 Game Loss

WAS 7
PHI 5

First 2 weeks:
Games 4 - 4 - 3
Chase 4 - 0
Game Profit: -$27.53
Season Profit: -$6.04

bombCanada · 04-16-10, 09:27 AM

For 4/16

Chase game 3

PHI ML $41.82 to win $17.28 (-242)
PHI RL $17.42 to win $15.55 (-112)

Petman · 04-16-10, 10:56 AM

Quick question. When you back checked this against history, what kinds of returns were you getting?

bombCanada · 04-17-10, 06:22 AM

4/16 Game Win, Chase Win

FLA 6
PHI 8

First 2 weeks:
Games 5 - 4 - 3
Chase 5 - 0
Game Profit: $32.59
Season Profit: $26.55

bombCanada · 04-17-10, 07:21 AM

Originally posted by Petman

Quick question. When you back checked this against history, what kinds of returns were you getting?

I didn't do my own backtesting. Like I said in the first post, this system is a synthesis of several ideas others have tested, including:

playing one of the day's favorites
reducing juice with the runline
blending ML and -1.5 RL wagers to create a -1 RL

But if the first couple of weeks, which I am playing with small but real money, are any indication, returns are small and positive, on the order of one to two units per week. Unclear if it's worth the effort. I set the first 2 weeks aside for changes and learning, and I think my learning so far is that money management will make or break this system. While I'm currently operating with a fixed risk unit, I am tracking about a half dozen different ways of using the system.

bombCanada · 04-17-10, 07:26 AM

For 4/17

NYY ML $6.32 to win $3.68 (-172)
NYY RL $3.68 to win $4.08 (111)

bombCanada · 04-18-10, 03:06 AM

4/17 Game Win

TEX 3
NYY 7

First 2 weeks:
Games 6 - 4 - 3
Chase 6 - 0
Game Profit: $7.76
Season Profit: $34.31

bombCanada · 04-18-10, 07:46 AM

For 4/18

PHI ML 6.54 to win 3.46 (-189)
PHI RL 3.46 to win 3.88 (+112)

bombCanada · 04-19-10, 09:31 AM

4/18 Game Loss

FLA 2
PHI 0

First 2 weeks:
Games 6 - 5 - 3
Chase 6 - 0
Game Profit: -$10.00
Season Profit: $24.31

bombCanada · 04-19-10, 09:52 AM

I want to revise the rules this week so that they're more clear cut and understandable. I need specifically to tighten up game selection. It may take me a few days to think through.

But one thing I am changing today is money management. Rather than a chase as classically defined, I'm changing to a system called 2 of 6. I will start with that today, and explain it sometime soon. The dollar amounts I use starting today will use that system.

bombCanada · 04-19-10, 09:54 AM

For 4/19:

SEA ML -146 5.93 to win 4.06
SEA RL +147 4.06 to win 5.97

bombCanada · 04-20-10, 07:35 AM

4/19 Game Win

BAL 2
SEA 8

Regular Season:
Games 1 - 0 - 0
Chase 1 - 0
Game Profit: $10.00
Season Profit: $10.00

bombCanada · 04-20-10, 10:32 AM

For 4/20

ATL ML -157 13.10 to win 8.34
ATL RL +140 8.34 to win 11.68

glassjaw · 04-20-10, 04:31 PM

Thanks..

Hawk007 · 04-20-10, 04:56 PM

You won y'day, yet I see u are increasing the bet amount? More payout I suppose and the -1 rl is far more advanteous to the -1'rl. Might start tailing these. Can u explain the new system? Thanks.

bombCanada · 04-21-10, 09:58 AM

4/20 Push

PHI 3
ATL 4

Regular Season:
Games 1 - 0 - 1
Chase 1 - 0
Game Profit: $0.00
Season Profit: $10.00

bombCanada · 04-21-10, 10:00 AM

For 4/21

SEA ML -190 17.30 to win 9.11
SEA RL +120 9.11 to win 10.93

bombCanada · 04-21-10, 10:00 AM

Originally posted by glassjaw

Thanks..

You're welcome. Thanks for the support.

bombCanada · 04-21-10, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by Hawk007

You won y'day, yet I see u are increasing the bet amount? More payout I suppose and the -1 rl is far more advanteous to the -1'rl. Might start tailing these. Can u explain the new system? Thanks.

I did increase the bet amount, per my new bet sizing plan called 2/6, or 2 of 6.

2/6 uses 6 bet sizes (these are units to win): 1u, 2u, 4u, 6u, 8u, and 12u

After each bet, win or lose, you go to the next size. After 2 winning bets in the series, you go back to 1u. After a push you repeat the bet size.

Example 1:
1u bet wins. Next bet 2u.
2u bet pushes. Next bet 2u.
2u bet loses. Next bet 4u.
4u bet wins. Next bet 1u.

Net of series: 1 - 2.2 + 4 = +2.8u

Example 2:
1u bet loses. next bet 2u.
2u bet wins. Next bet 4u.
4u bet wins. Next bet 1u.

Net of series: -1.1 + 2 + 4 = +4.9u

Example 3:
1u bet wins. Next bet 2u.
2u bet loses. Next bet 4u.
4u bet loses. Next bet 6u.
6u bet loses. Next bet 8u.
8u bet wins. Next bet 1u.

Net of series: 1 - 2.2 - 4.4 - 6.6 + 8 = -4.2u.

You can run through lots of other possibilities yourself. Ideally the system spends most of its time cycling through 1, 2, and 4 unit bet sizes. I wanted something that grew faster than I was seeing in the flat bet version.

Hope this helps.

glassjaw · 04-21-10, 02:59 PM

Thanks..

.. again!