At least ONE home series win 364-13 record

[stingyrivers]

hey guys... G's comment is typical... no one here proposed we stumbled across the hidden key to unlock the baseball universe... and it was pointless that he felt the need to tell us all we dont have the discipline to be successful system players, quite ironic considering he doesnt have the discipline to maintain impulse control and not make pointless comments on threads that add nothing positive and entirely seek to discourage others... at any rate, the numbers dont lie, and there is good reason this is talked about in 50 different versions... when put together right it wins... if it lost, it would be discussed for three weeks and then disappear...

jolm... that is what I am going with... those best three and worst 3, for the 2 game chase with the option to pull the trigger on a c bet, if it seems like a worthwhile risk.... and I dont think I plan on skipping series against the ace, unless it is like a 1 v 4, or 1 v 5 men in the rotations matchup...

I suppose I can start the thread for picks only and tracking plays... I will put it up by the weekend and start it off with the scedule for the month of april and all plays... we can keep discussing the whole thing here...

Rev, thanks on the research too... I was sold on the other system to play with this one, then I did 2006, it still won all year, but the amount of deep chases had me nervous about it... but I agree, it seemed like the 4 game chase on the -1 RL looks very solid as far as winning, It seems like 6 game chasing would almost never lose... but who can chase 6 games deep risking 65 units to win 1 ??

[G's pks]

hey guys... G's comment is typical... no one here proposed we stumbled across the hidden key to unlock the baseball universe... and it was pointless that he felt the need to tell us all we dont have the discipline to be successful system players, quite ironic considering he doesnt have the discipline to maintain impulse control and not make pointless comments on threads that add nothing positive and entirely seek to discourage others... at any rate, the numbers dont lie, and there is good reason this is talked about in 50 different versions... when put together right it wins... if it lost, it would be discussed for three weeks and then disappear...

jolm... that is what I am going with... those best three and worst 3, for the 2 game chase with the option to pull the trigger on a c bet, if it seems like a worthwhile risk.... and I dont think I plan on skipping series against the ace, unless it is like a 1 v 4, or 1 v 5 men in the rotations matchup...

I suppose I can start the thread for picks only and tracking plays... I will put it up by the weekend and start it off with the scedule for the month of april and all plays... we can keep discussing the whole thing here...

Rev, thanks on the research too... I was sold on the other system to play with this one, then I did 2006, it still won all year, but the amount of deep chases had me nervous about it... but I agree, it seemed like the 4 game chase on the -1 RL looks very solid as far as winning, It seems like 6 game chasing would almost never lose... but who can chase 6 games deep risking 65 units to win 1 ??

I did this last year and won dummy...look up the thread... I already did the research, each series you will have between 8 and 15% chance of losing. But obviously with home teams you will lose quite a bit when a series does get swept. I did not use the morrison money chasing system though... You would be better off doing a 1, 2, 1 style of betting. By that I mean 1 unit first game, 2 units second game and if a third game instead of doubling up again take a loss and go back to one unit. There should be more than enough wins to cover taking a series loss even if the third game wins. I went back 3 years on all teams to make sure the data was recent.

Also you did not even start this thread!

[G's pks]

stinky river...there are eight pages of comments...do not think all of a sudden it is your thread mush.

[jolmscheid]

Thanks for the input everyone.. Let's go get it this year...and lets make sure we all find the thread for this season

[stingyrivers]

G I dont really care whos thread it is... I just dont understand the phenomenon on this site of people chiming in out of no where and threads and leveling all types of insults and sticking their nose up...

makes no sense to me... congrats on the wins last year... maybe we can all have a decent year doing this, thats all we are trying to do here... not win pissing contests, at least Im not

[dvb02]

G I dont really care whos thread it is... I just dont understand the phenomenon on this site of people chiming in out of no where and threads and leveling all types of insults and sticking their nose up...

makes no sense to me... congrats on the wins last year... maybe we can all have a decent year doing this, thats all we are trying to do here... not win pissing contests, at least Im not

[fastpitch_45]

[DMB40]

As I read thru this everything sounds good the one statement I had was what if you didn't play a series that was in your top 5 vs your top 5. For example if your top 5 are NYY BOS TB PHI STL Don't bet any games of the NYY vs BOS series. and so on.

[stingyrivers]

I was thinking that too... good idea... I was thinking it recently, because the first two plays this year, are exactly that scenario Bos v NYY... TB v. NYY it is tough to filter the results with this thoughts because it doesnt improve the results being that they were perfect... it just lessens the play, and gives us the theory that the plays are a bit more safe.... the only upside in making these plays of top 5 v. top 5 is the juice would be low

[Stealinhome]

I will play the the Red Sox vs Yanks I think the sox have a great shot to win one of the two as they did all last year. As you said stingrivers it will be some of lowest juice we will see all year so if you do take a loss it will not be that bad. But again the odds that you take the loss are slim.

[fastpitch_45]

I will play the the Red Sox vs Yanks I think the sox have a great shot to win one of the two as they did all last year. As you said stingrivers it will be some of lowest juice we will see all year so if you do take a loss it will not be that bad. But again the odds that you take the loss are slim.

i agree

[stingyrivers]

I definitely dont see the sox getting swept so I think it is a good play... what do you guys think about the cleveland/whitesox series starting on Monday? I see that as a winner... I was thinking of playing it in addition to the main plays

[fastpitch_45]

I am with you on the CLE/CWS game

[stingyrivers]

good stuff... I really like the whitesox winning at least one in their home opener against the depleted indians... I have seen some great cappers on here in past seasons do this general concept except go series by series and pick the best match up and have close to undefeated season... so is anyone here like me gonna be up all night crunching more numbers all night? looking for a research partner during the wee hours of the night

[reverend]

stingy...i am with ya.

i like that cws/clev series as well. i will be with you on that one.

another series and game i LOVE is the sd/az game. it is the home opener for az and with haren on the mound facing the weak sd lineup, and the fact that jon garland is starting for sd, i think az wins that game big! you heard it from me here...i think az will surprise lots of folks this year. they will put up runs.

i like everyone's participation and input. it is nice going through this with some like minded guys. lets keep this up through the season and just ignore the "negatives" as they come around from time to time.

[mlb]

Rev ... Love where your heads at but you will be paying a heavy penny with harem on the mound at home against the pads ... Just remember that

[mlb]

Stingy ... On my thread I will be doing something of this sort but on a series by series basis ... I won't be following a top 5 rather look at matchups current form current bullpen home away etc. I look forward to stopping in your thread and see what you guys are up to !

[stingyrivers]

nice guys... I like what we got started here for this year, and if he is still out there, I would like to thank the OP for starting this thread... I am going to be back testing all night, variations of this and the other system of the big fav on the RL... if anyone is out there, I will be here all night... and if not, if I find anything significant, I will post some results in the morning

[dyeguy]

Stingy, have you run any numbers to test if it might be more profitable to wait for a first game loss and then bet the second and third games? I know this was discussed some in the middle of this thread but didn't see if there were any conclusions drawn.

[stingyrivers]

got some more numbers for you guys.... it seems we all had a general consensus on the teams... as far as three from each side of the fence...

TB, NYY, BOS and fading Pitt, Wash and KC

at least that is what I am strongly leaning toward... is anyone else a little worried about the idea of going with three from the same division??

at any rate, here is the past three seasons for each of these 6 teams respectively... in short, if you manage your bankroll properly, this sample size is probably big enough to show, you should end up with at the least a modest profit doing this.... for simplicity sake, I used the goal of winning 10 dollars per series, and assume an average of laying -150 odds on each bet.... this means a win would be 10 and a losing series would be a 150 loss... so for each year, I put the net gain based on that... Also, these records are from opening day until september 1 for each year

NYY

2009- 19 - 0 (+190)

2008- 19 - 1 (+40)

2007- 21 - 1 (+60)

3 yr total 59 - 2 (+290)


Boston

2009- 19 - 0 (+190)

2008- 19 - 1 (+40)

2007- 19 - 0 (+190)

3 yr total 57 - 1 (+420)

TBay

2009- 18 - 0 (+180)

2008- 22 - 0 (+220)

2007- 20 - 3 (-250)

3 yr total 60 - 3 (+150) ** in all fairness, TB would not have been selected in 2007, they were a bottom of the league team, pre- Longoria, Pena and the young guns in the staff

3 best team 3 yr total 176 - 6 (+860)


Washington

2009- 20 - 0 (+200)

2008- 20 - 1 (+50)

2007- 21 - 1 (+60)

3 yr total 61 - 2 (+310)


Pitt

2009- 21 - 0 (+210)

2008- 19 - 1 (+40)

2007- 18 - 2 (-120)

3 yr total 58 - 3 (+130)


KC

2009- 20 - 0 (+200)

2008- 17 - 3 (-280)

2007- 21 - 1 (+60)

3 yr total 58 - 4 (-20)


those are the past three years for these 6 teams for and against... this tells me that... If you avoid a sweep all year, you have a huge year... if you get hit by one sweep, you show a modest profit on the season... if you catch 2 sweeps you break even - juice essentially... and if you get 3 or 4 sweeps you lose money... in other words, I think this would be an at worst break even system year in and year out if you are doing your homework, and if you have a year like last year, you have a big year... I still like it, and our chances... if we want a huge year, we just have to avoid a sweep happening, we use the core system, but that is probably where some in the moment filters come in

[DeHoyos]

What If you had a 3 game series, your base bet to win was $100,Game 1 odds were -300 and you lost... Then let's say Game 2 was -300 also, you would have to win back your 300 plus an additional 100 so you would have to bet $1200 on Game 2 right?????
Then what if you chose to chase Game 3 and it was -200 you would have to bet $3200 right????


That scenario took place last year with the Pirates they were slated to play the Cubs...

gm1 Zambrano -250
gm2 Lilly -234
gm3 Dempster -240

If you were trying to win $100 on this bet it played out like this...
Pirates won the 1st game(-$250)....so game 2 would require a bet of $819...Pirates also won game 2(-$1069) so game 3 would have been a bet of $2500...The Cubs scored 3 in the 1st and 3 in the 4th and Dempster went 9inn 6-0 Cubs....Pirates had 3 errors that led to 3 runs....

[stingyrivers]

that is the model yes... your example I think is the extreme... it would be say the pirates going into yankee stadium and winning all three against Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte... those factors would present the odds you listed... and that extreme scenario is what it would take to make us chase that deep and heavy.... but yes that is the plays that would have to be made on that series

[DeHoyos]

Let's say I wanted to win 50K over the season doing this. What would be a realistic bankroll that could get that accomplished??? What if you increase your bet size for the top 2 and bot 2????? the numbers show they usually win game 1....Then let's say you add a few teams and decrease the amount bet on those teams....you would then be able to reach the 4 game chase with less risk to your roll and maybe add some units...

[stingyrivers]

Dehoyos... I looked up the series you mentioned and it was at Pittsburgh... that is outside the system,...

The system is fading the bad teams when and only when they are on the road... fading pittsburg in this system last year was 21 - 0

It is funny you just mentioned bankroll and a progressive theory as I was just working out that on paper.... if you didnt catch a sweep the whole year... and you started with 400 dollars with a starting goal per series of 20 dollars and after 10 wins you up your unit size by 50 percent progressively after each 10 wins.... after 200 wins you would have 50 K.... however, in order to do this in this baseball season, you would have to first not catch a sweep against you between now and sept. 1 and, you would have to average about a net of 9 wins per week

aside from that, I am trying to figure the right ratio for unit size based on what a starting bankroll would be considering you may have multiple chases at the same time.... my best guess right now is 20 dollar starting unit based on a 400 dollar bankroll.... but, that actually might be too high... not sure yet... you have to factor in that at any given time you may have 3 chases going into a game 2 or 3

[DeHoyos]

Check that again there Stingy it was the series on 09/30 @ Chicago...
No way Zambrano is -250 on the road...


Starting with $400 does not sound risky at all when your talking about making 50K....
Sportsbetting 150% bonus is sounding awfully nice.....but would i get screwed by the juice?????

[stingyrivers]

espn has it at pittsburgh I will check on both their schedules though

[stingyrivers]

okay I was looking at the series on september 7 that was at Pittsburgh... the one in Chicago started on Sept 29 and espn has chicago winning game one? the other thing is, we kind of figured this is a system to play from opening day until Sept 1... the system ends on sept 1 based on the unpredictibilty and odd occurences in MLB in september (teams being mathematically eliminated, minor leagers debuts, etc....) so even if Pitt swept the cubs at wrigley in that last series, the system ended after august... if you look, the nationals swept the braves on the last series of the year too... the nats, royals and pirates didnt sweep any away series between opening day and sept 1

[DeHoyos]

All excellent points....
Dam all this switching back and forth between sites has got me all twisted lmao....

Well if it's true what you said about starting with $400 and making 50K wouldnt it be possible to make twice that amount if I went for a big 150% bonus on my 400???

[stingyrivers]

none of that is to dismiss your point though.... the occurence we are betting against happening could certainly happen at any given time, the trick for us is to minimize risk and try to dodge anytime that it might....

what were you thinking in terms of the bankroll issue? That is what I came up with in terms of a progressive approach, do the system straight up, dont catch any sweeps and proprtionally increase your unit size based on bankroll after about every ten wins....

[stingyrivers]

not sure what you mean there by 150% bonus off your 400.... but to be honest, bumping your unit by 50% after your bankroll increases 50% (after ten wins) is probably way too risky... it is just what it would take to get to 50K in a season, aside from never lose.... if you meant increase the unit by 150% after ten wins... you couldnt do that, you wouldnt be able to chase in the next series, you would be all in and short on the bet in the next game two...

I can chart the progression out for you in a next reply.... to most it is going to look silly, but if you applied the approach to last years results with the system, you actually would have turned 400 into about 50K

[DeHoyos]

Yeah but will I be better off with lines at MB or taking 150% on my 400 to start????

What about Team vs. Team series records like, When was the last time KC swept the RedSox in Fenway????
Maybe other strong home teams can be added based on those scenarios for extra profit...

[stingyrivers]

I got you I think now, you mean start with 600? if that were the case and you started with a 30 dollar unit and progressively increased your unit to bankroll after every ten wins, yes you would hit more than 50 K on a perfect year, not quite twice that, but a lot more yes.... I am still struggling with if 20 dollar unit is approriate for a 400 dollar BR doing this... my gut kid of tells me that is a reckless amount

[DeHoyos]

reckless??? it could cover 2-3 series at a time.....i would think alot of game 1's would hit early on in the year....especially for that bottom 3, maybe an increase for the bottom 3 early on is called for.....just the fact that we'd be chasing before opening day doesnt sit well with me....ill take 3 to 1 that sea/sf game is the most bet on spring training game this year...

[stingyrivers]

if you only played the strongest matchups, like KC at Boston.... it would probably almost never lose... as a KC sweep in fenway probably hasnt happened in years... but playing just those would only give you about 35 plays total on the year, I looked into that....

as far as other teams, the thread started with at least 6 best teams... there are other very solid ones that could be included...

LAA is 51 - 0 in the past two seasons at home

CWS is 41 - 0 in the past 2 years and 58 -2 in the past 3 years

[stingyrivers]

20 may be way too high for 400 bankroll... I wish that it wasnt, but it may be.... lets say you have 3 series starting and a 400 dollar bankroll

you lay 30 to win 20 on game one of all three series.... a total of 90 out of your 400, lets say the away team wins in all three series on game one... now you have to lay 75 to win 50 on all the game 2's a total of 225, plus the 90 you laid on game 1, a total you are in for is 315 of your 400, right out of the gate.... that is an example of how the unit size was simply too big based on bankroll and the system... see what I am saying... you could make it 20, but you would be banking on multiple daily losses happening infrequently