2010 MLB Plays

[therber2]

must read for not only fantasy but also betting purposes...

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tom_verducci/02/16/verducci.effect/index.html

So what do you take out of it from a betting perspective?

[Dexter]

So what do you take out of it from a betting perspective?

you can focus on fading verduci pitchers for 2010. i was thinking of starting a thread and seeing if anyone would volunteer to keep track on a 1 unit per game fade of all these pitchers starts. perhaps this can be a nice system to make a few bucks. you'll no doubt get some juicy money lines fading johnson, hernandez, and joba

i no doubt will keep these pitchers in the back of mind when i cap a game - esp if they are trending cold, coming off a 120+ pitch game etc...

[Dexter]

#3 Rick Porcello

#4 Brian Matsusz

[diamondhandicap]

Yea, some good ideas, and system angles to take here. Defiently a site like this is where you can learn from eachother. I have had good success doing it the old fashioned way......knowledge, studying and gut instinct. I look at Last 7, BA, ERA, WHIPS, RPG, Pitchers Last 3, Bullpen, Starting Lineup, each batters tendencies vs starting pitcher, weather, ballpark. Hasnt missed yet.

[Dexter]

welcome diamond....feel free to share your thoughts/plays when the season begins...

[therber2]

Yea, some good ideas, and system angles to take here. Defiently a site like this is where you can learn from eachother. I have had good success doing it the old fashioned way......knowledge, studying and gut instinct. I look at Last 7, BA, ERA, WHIPS, RPG, Pitchers Last 3, Bullpen, Starting Lineup, each batters tendencies vs starting pitcher, weather, ballpark. Hasnt missed yet.

Diamond you've got all the right ideas there buddy. Welcome. Good stuff Dex. I am going to reread that article. Guys I have a thread going where I am just going to track runs scored/innings played per team and innings with run scored/innings played ratings for teams. I am doing it for spring training right now. I don't plan on getting useful info until at least a month into reg. season.

[Dexter]

fantasy baseball main league draft tomorrow online....will be here posting my team live for you fantasy junkies. cant wait..

couldnt continue posting my sleepers here as i forgot some of my friends (jk, mr ed ) read this site sometimes

[Dexter]

2010 MLB Predictions:

American League:

East:

1) Redsox - 97
2) Rays - 94 *
3) Yankees - 90
4) Orioles - 69
5) Bluejays - 63

Central:

1) Twins - 88
2) Whitesox - 87
3) Tigers - 82
4) Royals - 63

West:

1) Mariners - 95
2) Rangers - 83
3) Angels - 77
4) A's - 68

National League:

East:

1) Phillies - 97
2) Marlins - 90
3) Braves - 89
4) Mets - 75
5) Nats - 61

Central:

1) Cards - 93
2) Brewers - 89
3) Astros - 83
4) Cubs - 78
5) Reds - 72
6) Pirates - 59

West:

1) Dodgers - 93
2) Dbacks - 90 *
3) Rockies - 88
4) Giants - 81
5) Padres - 60

World Series ~ DRays over Phillies

[himeshforex]

red sox

[dogcity]

2010 MLB Predictions:

2) Rays - 94 *

Hi Dexter,

Totally agree on the Rays.

-BJ Upton healthy
-Carlos Pena healthy
-A legitimate closer in Soriano
-Young starting staff with upside and depth (Davis/Hellickson)
-arguably the best speed/power lineup in the AL with a bench that will include Hank Blalock, Sean Rodriguez and Matt Joyce

FYI Pinnacle has this prop bet on the board:Tampa Bay over 89.5 Wins@2.230

GL with your thread

[Dexter]

crawford and pena both playing for contracts as well i believe.

yeah, i drafted hellickson, soriano and davis on my fantasy team.

[Dexter]

predictions complete. drays get it done in 2010

[Dexter]

baseball almost here..

[Dexter]

Sunday 4/4:

(1x) redsox -110 - have to fade the yankees here on opening day off the world series win. ny is 2-8 their last 10 at fenway.

[himeshforex]

dexter..... good stats there...can u point me to where i can access such stats ...thnx a ton...

[DuncHen22]

Wow, Mariners with 95?? I'm lovin' it but I wonder how you came up with that? A lot of people like taking the under on 83.5. I don't see them being worse than last year (last year: 85 wins) but I wouldn't have put them over 90. And I know this has been said a lot but their lack of power worries me a bit. They've got good hitters but I think a lot of guys may be LOB.

At any rate, I hope you're right!

[Dexter]

dexter..... good stats there...can u point me to where i can access such stats ...thnx a ton...

http://www.ats411.com/NBA/

Wow, Mariners with 95?? I'm lovin' it but I wonder how you came up with that? A lot of people like taking the under on 83.5. I don't see them being worse than last year (last year: 85 wins) but I wouldn't have put them over 90. And I know this has been said a lot but their lack of power worries me a bit. They've got good hitters but I think a lot of guys may be LOB. At any rate, I hope you're right!

95 may be a bit high now that i see bedard is out till june. lopez, bradley, and gutierez should all have around 20-25 homers. i think bradley will bounce back nicely out of a big market like chi into a small market in sea (where he can also dh to stay healthy).

i just love their 1/2 punch of ichiro and chone figgins.

[himeshforex]

thnx dexter ...

[jolmscheid]

Let's get 'em Dex

[TenBagger]

you can focus on fading verduci pitchers for 2010. i was thinking of starting a thread and seeing if anyone would volunteer to keep track on a 1 unit per game fade of all these pitchers starts. perhaps this can be a nice system to make a few bucks. you'll no doubt get some juicy money lines fading johnson, hernandez, and joba

i no doubt will keep these pitchers in the back of mind when i cap a game - esp if they are trending cold, coming off a 120+ pitch game etc...

as someone that had been a strong advocate of the verducci effect, there has been some research done lately that disproves the verducci effect. the report was done well and it has swayed me to the other side.

[superjeff24]

Ten Bagger, post any links to the counter article of the verducci effect. I'm sure it'd be a good read for all of us! I would fade Joba Chamberlain, because yanks seem to always be a fan favourite, and he was a reliever, maybe the innings will be hard on him. Felix Hernandez has some of the best mechanics I've ever seen (and I'm a nazi for good pitching mechanics) Tim Linceum could be another guy on that list to fade. However, I'd probably wait a couple months into the season in case his arm is hot before it fizzles.

[whatsgood5]

Good luck Sunday man, haven't decided who I'll be on in that one yet.

[Dexter]

as someone that had been a strong advocate of the verducci effect, there has been some research done lately that disproves the verducci effect. the report was done well and it has swayed me to the other side.

you have a link?

[Dexter]

Ten Bagger, post any links to the counter article of the verducci effect. I'm sure it'd be a good read for all of us! I would fade Joba Chamberlain, because yanks seem to always be a fan favourite, and he was a reliever, maybe the innings will be hard on him. Felix Hernandez has some of the best mechanics I've ever seen (and I'm a nazi for good pitching mechanics) Tim Linceum could be another guy on that list to fade. However, I'd probably wait a couple months into the season in case his arm is hot before it fizzles.

joba is going to the pen (hughes is the #5)

lincecum was a verducci guy last year, not this year.

i think hernandez was on a verducci list a few years back and still got better.

if you love good mechanics, im surprised you think lincecum may struggle. hes got perfect mechanics imo

[Dexter]

capping the first full MLB card as i await the easter food fest.

obviously not much to go on this early in the season, so i will focus on historicals and not go more then 1-2x on a game for at least the first week or 2.

[Dexter]

Monday 4/5:

(1x) rockies +110 - jiminez has 7ip and 0 er in his only career start at milw (col 1-0). gallardo has 5ip and 2 er in 1 career home start vs the rockies (hou 0-1). like the sharp opening move for colorado.

(1x) giants -130 - lincecum has given up 1er in 11inn pitcher at hou. have to take advantage of lincecum at a decent price.

(1x) mariners -130 - fading sheets here who hasnt pitched since 9/2008 vs one of the best in the game (king felix) at a decent price.

[Van G]

thanks dexter....i'm going to be tailing you for the 1st few weeks....i'm a rookie when it comes to MLB....i'm hoping to learn from you & others on this board....GL to you

[superjeff24]

joba is going to the pen (hughes is the #5)

lincecum was a verducci guy last year, not this year.

i think hernandez was on a verducci list a few years back and still got better.

if you love good mechanics, im surprised you think lincecum may struggle. hes got perfect mechanics imo

He does have amazing mechanics, probably close to perfect.I think what I meant to say was that his small frame likely won't support throwing so hard for his size. He has a "violent" delivery Kind of like how Kazmir and Krod throw.

[DuncHen22]

Dex, what do you think of fading Marcum and the Blue Jays? Pretty much the same situation as Sheets plus Texas in their home opener should be good.

[Chi_archie]

good luck this year Dex.... looks like you put in some good work/study during the offseason

[DIRTYDIRTY]

get it BOL

[AzNDooM]

Solid picks so far DEXT, good analyszing and hope that to see you at the top for this sport this year. I may suggest an UNDER on the Colorado game according to the stats. However, too early in the season to say, usually it takes first 20 games for pitchers to settle in.

[ojs69]

Good luck Dex

[poker_dummy101]

good luck

[fly fisher]

Dex, good luck and thanks for the NBA info. Wife not excited for baseball but I am.