CK's 2025 MLB Thread

[atthehalf]

Big discussion in the discord about the Bombers offensive woes recently against mediocre arms. In my opinion it's not so much the amount of hits which is fine-it's when they are happening that's the cause for concern. Over the last 10 days the Bombers lead the league in a bad category-runners left on base and are 28th in 2 out hits. Without Soto they don't really have guys around Judge that are the quintessential prototypes for hitting for average-also without Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup Judge has not real protection. So he's gonna see a lions share of high and inside 4 seamers and sinkers

[atthehalf]

Don't worry y'all-the UNDERS are going to make a big comeback this week starting today. Fantasy wise I have looked over this week's matchups and found some really good arms in action against one another-which is key.

Tyler Holton ended up starting for the Tigers yesterday which cancelled my move on Gipson-Long. Today I am on Jake Irvin (18% rostership) against the Rox who are fresh off of beating the stuffing out of the Braves Grant Holmes. He's not the best arm around but this is the Rox and I seriously doubt that they can repeat that performance.

My CRUMBS Streamer record stands at 56-23 since yesterday was a cancel. Just need to get straight on these conventional moves LOL! I will post my record at the end of the day today for those once The Action network posts everything

[atthehalf]

Adding on

Astronauts-150 McCullers

Huge arm advantage in this one

[atthehalf]

6/16/25

Blunts/Fish UNDER 8.5 Abel/Alcantara
Rox/Nats UNDER 9 Palmquist/Irvin
Fathers/Dodgers UNDER 9 Cease/Casparius
Halos/Bombers UNDER 8.5 Soriano/Schmidt
Orioles/Rays UNDER 9 Eflin/Pepiot
Red Sox/Sailors UNDER 7.5 Giolito/Gilbert
Dodgers-138 Casparius
Fish+116 Alcantara

CRUMBS POD Jake Irvin (Nats) 18% ownership

[atthehalf]

Strange but true-this is Hard Rock sportsbook backed

Giants+154 Harrison

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Giants/Dodgers UNDER 9 Harrison/May (Bucknor 8.08)

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Alright-first move

12:00 Red Leggins/Tigers UNDER 9 Miley/Gipson-Long (Barrett 8.85)

I didn't have my notes in front of me-I was supposed to go to another site for the umpire CURRENT information after finding the assignment info on swish. Swish gives numbers complied over 3 seasons and not the current season. This was the only one I messed up on

[atthehalf]

Big board has been updated.

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The A's and Royals bullpens are SHOT and this one could hit that over late in the game as desperation sets in for the Royals who don't want to be swept at home

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A's/Royals UNDER 4.5 FF Springs/Cameron

There's a method to the madness yall

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1:30 Bombers/Red Sox OVER 8 Fried/Bello (Conroy 11.15)

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Forgot one-but added it to the big board

2:00 Cardinals/Brews UNDER 8 Mikolas/Priester (Ramos 7.00)

[atthehalf]

1:30 Halos/Orioles UNDER 4.5 FF Kikuchi/Blewitt (Ceja 8.79)
1:30 Rays+135 Baz
1:30 Jays/Blunts OVER 7 Berrios/Wheeler (Hanahan 10.46)
1:30 Bombers/Red Sox OVER 8 Fried/Bello (Conroy 11.15)
1:30 Fish/Nats OVER 7.5 Perez/Gore (Ballou 10.60)
1:30 Halos/Orioles UNDER 9 Kikuchi/Povich (Ceja 8.82)
2:00 Cardinals/Brews UNDER 8 Mikolas/Priester (Ramos 7.00)
2:00 A's/Royals UNDER 4.5 FF Springs/Cameron
2:00 A's/Royals OVER 8.5 Springs/Cameron (DeJesus 10.00)
2:00 Buccos/Cubs OVER 7 Keller/Rea (Cuzzi 7.08)
4:00 Guardians+112 Ortiz 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

Second move

Halos-110 Kikuchi 2 UNITS

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Alright-first move

12:00 Red Leggins/Tigers UNDER 9 Miley/Gipson-Long (Barrett 8.85)

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Trying to find my 3 sides! All should be for + money. Gimme a few hours

[atthehalf]

dodgers too good

I know right?

[atthehalf]

CRUMBS POD Streamer Sawyer Gipson-Long (Tigers) with only 4% rostership I am in disbelief that I have an opportunity to cash a robust 96% share. I went on and ranked him at #5. I don't grasp why he's rostered in so few leagues. Is it because he's been limited thus far? That won't last. He may have an opener here which helps him for a Win chance. I am trying to rob the ATM in broad daylight with this one.

[Greg4Keno]

dodgers too good

[atthehalf]

So look for the publishing this evening late-then check back say an hour or so before the time slots to see if there are any arbitrage moves tomorrow during the day. The locking in is clever because the good number must be captured-then if it doesn't need any more work or beats the closer then it's all good and I can buy more if necessary or get off of it. Some totals will end up being bridged to higher moves

[atthehalf]

Dang-now that I know this stuff there are a few early moves that I wouldn't have made despite the number being right-this is an ever evolving game-a work in progress.

So I am gonna lock in the good numbers for tomorrow tonight and then research them tomorrow when the umpire assignments are scheduled and bet out where necessary. Got it

[atthehalf]

Alright-I think that I've got it.

Y'all please bear with me on this-or just watch it and see as I try out what this guy was telling me with exploiting the errors and I looked up what he was betting this evening with that money in his backpack LOL! But I wanted to look things up the way that he was telling me to so that I can see what he is seeing. This is sort of the proverbial teach a am an how to fish and he eats for a lifetime. SO I am to look up the secret numbers the night before and list them-but in this case I am doing it on gameday; then I am to go to swishanalytics and get the listed umpire assignments 1-3 hours before the game; then i look up what the umpire does against the actual total line and then pull the trigger-avoiding a number that rises or lowers and BECOMES an 8 or a 7 at all costs. A game that opens at a 7 and stays that way is fine. No 8 is good whatsoever. Got it

James Hoye is the ump for the Fathers/Snakes. He averages 9 RPG and is 0-1 for the 9.5 which means that I got that one right. In terms of exploitation the FF is also a must


Giants/Dodgers UNDER 5 +100 FF Roupp/Kershaw
Fathers/Snakes UNDER 5 +100 FF Bergert/Gallen

Now for the Guardians/Sailors Mike Muchlinski is 0-0 in games with a line of 7 or less and RPG is 9.75

Guardians/Sailors OVER 7 Bibee/Kirby

I guess that everyone is going to learn this stuff as i do. I have been a fantasy streamer and now I am learning how to master the conventional side of betting

[atthehalf]

Ok so looking into the Giants/Dodgers now. Dan Issogna is 1-1 for the O/U 9 line and averages 8.18 RPG, so let's go

Giants/Dodgers UNDER 9

[atthehalf]

Translated I shouldn't have taken the Cubs RL for today's game. It may hit-but going forward I have been educated

[atthehalf]

Oh wow! Ok so the boys won a nailbiter and now we have to hit the road and drive to Miami for the tournament finals.

I went on and dropped my moves for tomorrow on our runner because of the time needed to drive this evening. Interesting conversation with a stranger has my head in the right place.

My moves come with specific orders. Anything that becomes an 8 or a 7 just bet out of it(middling number). More about that later.

So my envelope was delivered. There's a guy in the car with our runner holding a backpack-but he's seated in front on the passenger side. I asked our runner "Who's this guy in front of my home?" He tells me that it's one of the pros who blasts Hard Rock on the weekends. His car is at the dealer being worked on and needs a ride-and then asks if I want to meet him and I said no prob.

I meet the guy and we chat for a few minutes-before I knew it the minutes turned into an hour. During that hour I found out that the same sequence given to me by the counter person at the Hard Rock is the same sequence that this guy is making moves on and further he tells me that i should go fully off into the sequence and stop looking for reasons to make several moves on sides (he got my attention wit that one) and to limit them to "returners" and oddities and blast away on totals; more specifically the unders; which I have been making moves on recently. And stay at those numbers exclusively and bet out of a number if it goes bad.

"Since you don't like vig then this is right down your alley" He says "anything that becomes an 8 or a 7 get off of it and rescue your money by going the other way. He said that the under is basically the side that the books are rooting for 90% of the time-keep going in that direction"

He tells me "you're right there with us-you just have to give in. You've got the mass exploiting thing down-you're just doing too many sides per week-should be around 2 or so per day and each and every one of the numbers that you are betting already because they have been saving your ass when the sides haven't been good-I've been there. Straights on totals is the pro's bread and butter for baseball and football betting. This isn't gonna pay you in lump sums like that fantasy stuff you do-but it's slow and steady money like stocks"

So I went inside and looked for my totals numbers for Sunday-without even looking at the sides-just the totals numbers-trying to stick to the information. It looked like almost every total line on the board was in my wheelhouse. I just have to remember to bet out if an 8 or a 7 appears. I am doing this experiment on my hard Rock app so I can get in and out of moves faster

[atthehalf]

Brutal day yesterday for conventional. I did manage a HUGE profit with my Thunder and Horton moves because of the size of the moves. I made so many CRUMBS off of Horton yesterday that I totally made an ignorant profit despite a poor conventional betting day where bullpens did me in. If it's any consolation-the books got hit HARD yesterday as the OVERS were cashing. In most if not all cases the OVER is the joes side and the UNDER is the books side. As shoebox used to say "onward and upward" #shithappens

CRUMBS POD

Jose Quintana (Brews) I know-it's the CRUMBS tho-he only has 18% rostership. He does however have an xwOBA of .261 and historically 19.8% of Cardinals batters get K'd up against him. 82% share split? Sounds wonderful to me.

2:00 Buccos/Cubs UNDER 7.5 -110 Burrows/Boyd
2:00 Cubs-1.5 -115 RL Boyd
4:00 Pale Hose/Wanderers UNDER 7.5 Vasil/deGrom
4:00 Cardinals/Brews UNDER 8.5 Pallante/Quintana
4:00 Rox/Braves UNDER 9 Dollander/Strider
4:00 Jays/Blunts UNDER 8.5 Francis/Sanchez
4:00 Halos/Orioles UNDER 9 Anderson/Sugano
7:00 Bombers/Red Sox UNDER 8.5 Rodon/Dobbins
7:00 Rays/Metropolitans UNDER 7.5 Rasmussen/Megill
7:00 Fathers/Snakes UNDER 9.5 Bergert/Gallen


I may get involved with the Giants/Dodgers game. You know I love me some Landen Roupp

[atthehalf]

Get off of Ottawa if you want to-they now have a bad number (+6). Dru Brown has been listed as OUT and it caused the line to move-may be alright. I can't get off of them-I made my move at the sportbook with our runner

[atthehalf]

That's gonna do it for this evening-I just made a pissload of Horton money and it's cocktail time

[atthehalf]

Stay close to home and BET OUT of Nats with

Fish-108 Cabrera

[atthehalf]

Mlodzinski's in! Egads! I feel like running through downtown naked with a propellor hat on

[atthehalf]

And with Skenes having a 5/2 split it sure would be nice if he were to get another walk and leave the game and Horton win the head to head for a bonus

[atthehalf]

Whew! Had to sweat that one out! So Horton goes 5 2/3rds with 4 K's and one walk and I get a treat of an 83% share winnings! Good stuff

Now let's root the OVER home now that both of them starters are out or close to being out of the game

[atthehalf]

At some point during today I am gonna get me some Royals, Snakes and Red Leggins to balance out my forthcoming Nats loss. Just waiting for the right time and my buy in price to be met. And don't trip about the Nats-it's part of the process.

We will all end up with .500 or so records so just get your units in when you can and exploit mistakes-the books will get some and so will you

[atthehalf]

The 6.5 is 6-3 for the OVER so far this MLB season-so do it man

Buccos/Cubs OVER 6.5 Skenes/Horton

[atthehalf]

TOTALS

6:30 Jays/Blunts UNDER 8 Gausman/Suarez 2 UNITS
6:30 Fish/Nats UNDER 9 Cabrera/Irvin
7:00 Rox/Braves UNDER 9 Marquez/Elder
7:00 Bombers/Red Sox UNDER 8.5 Yarbrough/Crochet
7:00 Rays/Metropolitans UNDER 8 Bradley/Holmes 2 UNITS
8:00 Cardinals/Brews UNDER 7.5 Fedde/Peralta
8:00 A's/Royals UNDER 8 Severino/Wacha
10:00 Giants/Dodgers UNDER 7.5 Webb/Yamamoto
10:00 Dodgers-1.5 +135 Yamamoto

SIDES

6:30 Nats-1.5 +165 RL Parker
6:30 Jays+102 Gausman
7:00 Orioles-1.5 +116 RL Morton
7:30 (CFL) Ottawa+4.5
8:30 NBA Thunder-6 LARGE
10:00 Guardians+118 Williams