April 29: Braves P Alex Wood Total Ks Over 6.5 [-115]
Wood whiifed eleven Marlins in his last start. He has struck out seven or more in three straight. Wood gives you innings which is what you want to rack these up. Seven or more IP in 5/5 starts. MIA ranks 3rd in the league in K rate among offenses.
April 29: Rays-Red Sox Over 8.5 [-110]
Bedard vs. Lackey. Bedard has given up four earned in each of his two starts with both games ending in double digits. Lackey has a 4.37 ERA against TB, but the roster is hitting over .300 against him. Escobar, Joyce, Longoria & Zobrist have robust #s against him. 8/10 overall have hit OVERs for TB & 7/10 for BOS beat tonight's number.
April 29: Rockies-Diamondbacks Over 8.5 [-120] Chatwood vs. Bolsinger. Good OVERs trends for both road vs. home. On the road, COL has seen OVERs now in 9/13. ARZ has seen OVERs in 9/14 at home. Bolsinger was very good against the Cubs last time out, but struggled mightily against the Dodgers & Mets in his first two starts. He gave up nine runs in seven innings in those two starts before going 6.2 IP against CHC and giving up one unearned. Chatwood has seen all three of his starts go OVER. He got double digit run support in his two home starts. He's given up at least four runs in 2/3. ARZ has actually been scoring consistently on this home stand with five runs each in three of their last four. COL has scored at least five in 7/10 overall.
May 1: Dodgers-Twins Over 8-5 [-110]
MIN is still the best OVERs bet in baseball. 19/23 overall & 8/11 @ home. Haren vs. Pelfrey. Haren's last three have gone OVER, thanks in part to the pen that has a 5.11 road ERA. LA has OVERs in five of their last six. Pelfrey's four starts have seen three OVERs. Bit of a gnarly weather day, but I still dig it.
May 1: G1 Pirates-Orioles Under 8.5 [+100]
Morton vs. Norris. Morton hasn't been great, but 4/5 starts have stayed at eight runs or less. Credit that to the struggling PIT offense. Six of their last nine overall have gone UNDERs. BAL has seen 8/10 at home go UNDER and nine of those finish at eight or less. O's average about two runs less at home than their season avg of 4.5 runs per nine innings.
May 1: Mets-Rockies Over 9.5 [+105] Colon vs. Nicasio. Colon has fared well with the comfy confines if Citi Field, but now faces a solid Rockies offense on the road. In two road starts, Colon got crushed by the Angels for nine earned runs in 5 IP and then shut out ATL in 7 IP. So the jury is out a bit, but I'll take my chances with a COL offense that rakes at home to the tune of .366 against righties. They have backed Nicasio with nine runs or more in EACH of his three starts at home this season and re 7/12 in hitting OVERs at Coors. Nicasio has given up at least four runs in 3/5 starts. The Mets are 5/7 in road OVERs with some pushes as well and have scored at least four runs now in five straight overall and 8/10 roadies. Both pens will give it up some, although NYM have been solid over their last ten - but COL should make up for that with an ERA over 5 in their last ten from the pen. If both starters are gone by the sixth, this should have a good shot. Stiff wind blowing in from CF, but strangely that has been conducive to double digit runs at Coors the last couple seasons.
May 2: Cardinals-Cubs Over 8 [-120]
Eainrigjt vs. Wood. Waino has been bueno. His worst outing of the year though came against the Cubs. He allowed 4 ER in that start. 3-4 of the CHC regs have good #s against him. Wood has been beat up at times against STL. Jay, Molina, Holliday & Craig all hitting well over .300 against him. 3/5 starts have seen at least eight runs. 9/13 games @ Wrigley this year have 8+ runs. STL is a heavy toad UNDERs so far, but a lot of that can be looked st as evening out at some point due to the good pitching they have faced. Both pens can be had.
May 2: Orioles-Twins Over 8.5 [-110]
Preached on the Twins OVERs tendencies yestetday. 20-7-1 in favor of OVERs. 9-4-1 at Target Field. BAL scores better on the road, nailing righties at a .305 clip. 10/13 roadies going OVERs. Jimenez vs. Nolasco. Ubaldo has given up at least four runs in 4/5 starts. Nolasco has given up five in 4/5 of his starts.
May3: Orioles-Twins Over 8 [-110]
Chien vs. Correia. More of the same for me. Chien has been good, but worse on the road. Correia = gas can. Worth rolling with this based on alot of the same #s from yesterday on the OVERs.
May 3: Dodgers-Marlins Over 8.5 [-105] Maholm vs. Turner. Maholm been up and down in his four starts this season. His last three have seen two quality starts out of three. He will face a MIA team that kills lefties, .314 BAA so far this season @ home. Home has been an OVERs beacon for the Fish with 12/16 games going that direction. LA is on a decent OVERs run, with 7/10 finishing that way - including three of their four on this road trip. Turner got dumped by COL for five runs in 6 IP in his 1st start of the season and is just coming off the disabled list. The Dodgers who have seen Turner have eight hits in 15 career ABs against him. His lone start vs. LA in 2013 saw him give up ten hits and four runs in 5 IP. Several MIA bats have hit Maholm hard. Baker, McGehee, R.Johnson & Stanton all have had nice success.
May 5: Phillies Team Total Over 4 [-110]
Happ stepping out of the pen for a spot start. He's barely been used since coming off the DL. That means if PHI is patient, they should get dome quality bullpen time against TOR. That Jays' pen is sporting a 5.34 ERA. Phil's hitting lefties @ .279, but lower of late.
Not sure. Overs tempting. Weaver starts 6/6 in Overs and Angels are 11/14 Overs at home. Looking at that and the M's/A's 1st five. Gotta look over a few more things.
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