No Rainouts Here

[TodaysAction]

Thanks Terry for posting early! Good luck today!

You're welcome dodger33. I do it when there's a better than average chance of not being around come game time.

Good luck tonight TA, thanks for your plays

Belated thank you shakinakin and your welcome.

nice card. rockies team total has fantastic value IMO. FYI, you could have got -113, but 4.5 on pinny... even better for me for obvious reasons

Gee, glad it cashed for you but I've posted why I prefer whole numbers.

came up a little short on my dog pick but had a good day and as usual CONGRATS TA... the blast from gonzalez was QUITE A RUSH!!!

Sorry you came up a little short but on a positive day. Thank you. Know say that like Road Warrior Hawk would (Oh, what rush!).

Congrats on the Sweep TA.

Thank you VP. Saw your message, will get to it Sunday afternoon/evening.

Nice picks today, Terry. Greatness incarnate, along with your CHC/COL Over (which I tailed) I went 5-0 today +8.00 units!

Time to celebrate lightly with some Bombay Sapphire and tonics!

Thank you mebaran and congrats on your and plus eight!

[TodaysAction]

"Most importantly, Zack Greinke is NOT Brad Bergesen, and what few fans the Royals have left should be grateful for that! Bergesen is 3-9 with a 6.95 ERA in 18 appearances (16 starts) for Baltimore this season. He’s lost seven straight decisions dating back to May 17, and over that stretch the Orioles are 1-11 in his 12 appearances (which includes 10 starts). In July alone, Bergeson is 0-5 with a 7.20 ERA in five starts, and on the road this season the right-hander is 1-5 with a 7.90 ERA.

Then again, it’s not like Bergesen is solely to blame for his piss-poor numbers. After all, the O’s have averaged just 3.8 runs per game when he starts, including a pathetic 2.9 runs per game on the road. Those averages don’t figure to improve against Greinke",

Good stuff there dodger33. You should post some picks too! I had SFO and the under today. Are you able to bet against your team? lol. I always find it hard to bet against my Cubbies, but that seems to be where the money always is at haha.

Seriously, you ought to read his thoughts on his team's games. Bookmark his thread because for some STUPID reason, it keeps getting buried. He won't win every time, who does?, but he has good insights and I am grateful he adds them to our thread as well as his own.

My apologies TA. Didn't mean to add fuel to the fire.

Not a problem or an issue Ditalin1. I think someone was hoping/thinking there would be a really bad month. Yes, I've had them but have survived each and everyone over the course of the season.

[TodaysAction]

Hey guys sorry for this long post but would REALLY appreciate some help here:

So when should I be re-calculating my unit size? Should I be doing it every day? Every week? Month? Season?

The reason I ask is because I want to know what way of doing it protects my bankroll, but yet allows it to grow the way it should.

I am using 3% as my unit right now and I have lost a large chunk of my bankroll this past week, so I was wondering if I should re-calculate my unit more often so that I don't lose as much during losing streaks?

I just want to know what way will mathematically be better for my bankroll. I understand that if I re-calculate daily, then when I have a losing day, my next day's wagers will be smaller, so it will take longer to win back losses right? But it will protect my bank better???

So I guess I am asking what YOU do and why you do it that way????

Thanks so much ...look forward to your reply!

jordan

Good evening Jordon,

The way I do things, while not for everyone, keeps things in perspective - I keep the same unit amount for the entire season but adjust the number of units on each action. It also makes keeping track of units +/- much easier.


If you're going to continue going the way you are, here are some guidelines that should help:
* until your original bankroll triples, do not increase the percentage, when it does increase by one percent
* if you drop 50% of your roll, decrease your percentage by one-to-two percent and stay at that amount until until you meet the above condition(triple original bankroll).

Hope that will help. Thanks for posting your question.

[TodaysAction]

July Challenge Log

* 1st: 1-5-0, 16.67%, -6.82 units, 1-5-0, 16.67%, -6.82 units
* 2nd: 5-2-1, 71.43%, +10.76 units, 6-7-1, 46.15%, +3.94 units
* 3rd: 4-0-0, 100.00%, +14.00 units, 10-7-1, 58.82%, +17.94 units
* 4th: 2-0-0, 100.00%, +3.20 units, 12-7-1, 63.16%, +21.14 units
* 5th: 1-0-0, 100.00%, +4.00 units, 13-7-1, 65%, +25.14 units
* 6th: 3-0-0, 100.00%, +3.00 units, 16-7-1, 69.57%, +28.14 units
* 7th: 1-1-0, 50.00%, -0.02 units, 17-8-1, 68.00%, +28.12 units
* 8th: 2-1-0, 66.67%, +2.04 units, 19-9-1, 67.86%, +30.16 units
* 9th: 3-1-0, 75.00%, +6.00 units, 22-10-1, 68.75%, +36.16 units
* 10th: 2-3-0, 40.00%, -2.76 units, 24-13-1, 64.86%, +33.40 units
* 11th: 1-1-0, 50.00%, -0.80 units, 25-14-1, 64.10%, +32.60 units
* 12th: 0-0-0, N/A, Even, 25-14-1, 64.10%, +32.60 units
* 13th: 0-0-0, N/A, Even, 25-14-1, 64.10%, +32.60 units
* 14th: 0-0-0, N/A, Even, 25-14-1, 64.10%, +32.60 units
* 15th: 4-3-0, 54.14%, +0.84 units, 29-17-1, 63.04%, +33.44 units
* 16th: 3-3-0, 50.00%, +0.26 units, 32-20-1, 61.54%, +33.70 units
* 17th: 3-2-0, 60.00%, -11.25 units, 35-22-1, 61.40%, +22.45 units
* 18th: 3-2-0, 60.00%, -9.76 units, 38-24-1, 61.29%, +12.69 units
* 19th: 1-1-0, 50.00%, - 6.50 units, 39-25-1, 60.94%, +6.19 units
* 20th: 4-4-0, 50.00%, -10.70 units, 43-29-1, 59.72%, -4.51 units
* 21st: 4-0-0, 100.00%, +14.10 units, 47-29-1, 61.84%, +9.59 units
* 22nd: 2-1-0, 66.67%, +1.33 units, 49-30-1, 62.03%, +10.92 units
* 23rd: 1-0-0, 100.00%, +1.00 unit, 50-30-1, 62.50%, +11.92 units
* 24th: 3-1-0, 75.00%, +3.56 units, 53-31-1, 63.10%, +15.48 units
* 25th: 2-2-0, 50.00%, -0.45 units, 55-33-1, 62.50%, +15.03 units
* 26th: 3-2-0, 60.00%, +3.00 units, 58-35-1, 62.37%, +18.03 units
* 27th: 5-3-0, 62.50%, -8.54 units, 63-38-1, 62.38%, +9.49 units
* 28th: 1-2-0, 33.33%, -5.25 units, 64-40-1, 61.54%, +4.24 units
* 29th: 2-0-0, 100.00%, +3.00 units, 66-40-1, 62.26%, +7.24 units
* 30th: 1-0-0, 100.00%, +1.00 unit, 67-40-1, 62.62%, +8.24 units
* 31st: 3-0-0, 100.00%, +3.00 units, 70-40-1, 63.64%,+11.24 units

August 1, 2010: Pay day!

29 of the 31 days, units have been positive for the month (93.55%).
9 during the month - including the last three days (6-0-0 run).

[TodaysAction]

Special thanks to tonyp0387 for his upcoming 300 SBR point contribution.

[TodaysAction]

Saturdays' log the trio of actions adding 3.00 units to the accounts.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Congrats to those who cashed.
Condolences to those who didn't.
Siggy is current.

[diamond]

good thread, thanks.

[mebaran]

July Challenge Log

* 1st: 1-5-0, 16.67%, -6.82 units, 1-5-0, 16.67%, -6.82 units
* 2nd: 5-2-1, 71.43%, +10.76 units, 6-7-1, 46.15%, +3.94 units
* 3rd: 4-0-0, 100.00%, +14.00 units, 10-7-1, 58.82%, +17.94 units
* 4th: 2-0-0, 100.00%, +3.20 units, 12-7-1, 63.16%, +21.14 units
* 5th: 1-0-0, 100.00%, +4.00 units, 13-7-1, 65%, +25.14 units
* 6th: 3-0-0, 100.00%, +3.00 units, 16-7-1, 69.57%, +28.14 units
* 7th: 1-1-0, 50.00%, -0.02 units, 17-8-1, 68.00%, +28.12 units
* 8th: 2-1-0, 66.67%, +2.04 units, 19-9-1, 67.86%, +30.16 units
* 9th: 3-1-0, 75.00%, +6.00 units, 22-10-1, 68.75%, +36.16 units
* 10th: 2-3-0, 40.00%, -2.76 units, 24-13-1, 64.86%, +33.40 units
* 11th: 1-1-0, 50.00%, -0.80 units, 25-14-1, 64.10%, +32.60 units
* 12th: 0-0-0, N/A, Even, 25-14-1, 64.10%, +32.60 units
* 13th: 0-0-0, N/A, Even, 25-14-1, 64.10%, +32.60 units
* 14th: 0-0-0, N/A, Even, 25-14-1, 64.10%, +32.60 units
* 15th: 4-3-0, 54.14%, +0.84 units, 29-17-1, 63.04%, +33.44 units
* 16th: 3-3-0, 50.00%, +0.26 units, 32-20-1, 61.54%, +33.70 units
* 17th: 3-2-0, 60.00%, -11.25 units, 35-22-1, 61.40%, +22.45 units
* 18th: 3-2-0, 60.00%, -9.76 units, 38-24-1, 61.29%, +12.69 units
* 19th: 1-1-0, 50.00%, - 6.50 units, 39-25-1, 60.94%, +6.19 units
* 20th: 4-4-0, 50.00%, -10.70 units, 43-29-1, 59.72%, -4.51 units
* 21st: 4-0-0, 100.00%, +14.10 units, 47-29-1, 61.84%, +9.59 units
* 22nd: 2-1-0, 66.67%, +1.33 units, 49-30-1, 62.03%, +10.92 units
* 23rd: 1-0-0, 100.00%, +1.00 unit, 50-30-1, 62.50%, +11.92 units
* 24th: 3-1-0, 75.00%, +3.56 units, 53-31-1, 63.10%, +15.48 units
* 25th: 2-2-0, 50.00%, -0.45 units, 55-33-1, 62.50%, +15.03 units
* 26th: 3-2-0, 60.00%, +3.00 units, 58-35-1, 62.37%, +18.03 units
* 27th: 5-3-0, 62.50%, -8.54 units, 63-38-1, 62.38%, +9.49 units
* 28th: 1-2-0, 33.33%, -5.25 units, 64-40-1, 61.54%, +4.24 units
* 29th: 2-0-0, 100.00%, +3.00 units, 66-40-1, 62.26%, +7.24 units
* 30th: 1-0-0, 100.00%, +1.00 unit, 67-40-1, 62.62%, +8.24 units
* 31st: 3-0-0, 100.00%, +3.00 units, 70-40-1, 63.64%,+11.24 units

August 1, 2010: Pay day!

29 of the 31 days, units have been positive for the month (93.55%).
9 during the month - including the last three days (6-0-0 run).

Congrats on the July Challenge. This was actually a very tough month for a lot of cappers I know and you came out very nicely.

On a side note, fading the Cubs (barring certain situations) looks like a GREAT idea soon. Signing away Lilly basically sends a message to the team that management wants to start the rebuilding process, and that they consider this season a lost cause. I'm looking for them to start "giving up" out there (aka a few more errors, a few more blown saves, and a general lack of interest). Couple that with the fact that the Cubs are a publicly bet team, there will be some value there indeed.

Just some food for thought...

[dee_jas]

well played TA

[danrman]

sun:
sd 2 units
laa 1 unit
st.louis-cubs-sd-laa.. small parlay

[tonyp0387]

Special thanks to tonyp0387 for his upcoming 300 SBR point contribution.

[Tommy_de1st]

Congrats

[shoebox]

good luck to everyone today!

[mebaran]

From me to you, TonyP...I appreciate you being a good sport, and now that it's over, we move on. I'm sure TA will be the first one to say the same.

In all sincerity, I hope things go well for you from here on out. I would also like to see what your take on 'capping is. Honestly, that's what this forum is for: sharing ideas and collaboration.

[danrman]

cubs 1 unit

[TodaysAction]

Welcome to August 2010! Things are going to be very different this go around.

1:10pm, Mets,
2:15pm, STL,
2:05pm, CWS,
2:10pm, MN,
2:10pm, KC,

to those on these teams and wagers.

[TodaysAction]

Special thanks to tonyp0387, they are appreciated.

[fenek]

good luck TA ! i chased yesterday at tennis and got burnedwith "only" ~200€ , so i´ve got to take a break for a week or two. what about the octoberfest this year, are you planning to visit munich or won´t you find time for it? would be great seeing you here.

btw, you mentioned that today is payday, so you will withdraw xy% of your roll and play now with the won money a bit more aggressive ?



best of TA !

[Tommy_de1st]

Welcome to August 2010! Things are going to be very different this go around.

1:10pm, Mets,
2:15pm, STL,
2:05pm, CWS,
2:10pm, MN,
2:10pm, KC,

to those on these teams and wagers.

Why is that? What difference will it be?

[TodaysAction]

Congrats on the July Challenge. This was actually a very tough month for a lot of cappers I know and you came out very nicely.

On a side note, fading the Cubs (barring certain situations) looks like a GREAT idea soon. Signing away Lilly basically sends a message to the team that management wants to start the rebuilding process, and that they consider this season a lost cause. I'm looking for them to start "giving up" out there (aka a few more errors, a few more blown saves, and a general lack of interest). Couple that with the fact that the Cubs are a publicly bet team, there will be some value there indeed.

Just some food for thought...

Thank you mebaran. Three or four bad days in a row did damage, but we survived. July historically is a tricky month and I've found a few things that are being back tested for next season as this is being typed. FYI, as soon as SBR Escrow pays me, when I log in the next time, I will gladly forward you the graders amount agreed upon, fifty SBR points. If you need it sooner, let me know and I'll send it without issue or concern. Again, thanks for grading/scoring the July Challenge.

well played TA

Thank you dee_jas.

sun:
sd 2 units
laa 1 unit
st.louis-cubs-sd-laa.. small parlay

Congrats

Thank you Tommy. How old is the little one in your avatar now?

good luck to everyone today!

Thank you Professor and to you as well.

[TodaysAction]

good luck TA ! i chased yesterday at tennis and got burnedwith "only" ~200€ , so i´ve got to take a break for a week or two. what about the octoberfest this year, are you planning to visit munich or won´t you find time for it? would be great seeing you here.

btw, you mentioned that today is payday, so you will withdraw xy% of your roll and play now with the won money a bit more aggressive ?

best of TA !

Good afternoon fenek,

Sorry you dropped 200 on the tennis court. Uncertain at this point if will be able to attend Octoberfest as things have changed since we last spoke. It's still one of the things I want to do & the sooner the better.

Yes, today is payday (July Challenge). July plays one way, August another. Adjustments were made and back tested to improve the cash flow. Thank you and to you as well.

Why is that? What difference will it be?

August had some adjustments put into the processes that provided more cash flow.

[sweethook]

very nice card , makin $$ GL.

[TodaysAction]

tonyp0387,

The past is the past. Let's see what you got.

[TodaysAction]

very nice card , makin $$ GL.

Thank you sweethook and to you as well.

[JVP3122]

I was too lazy to make plays yesterday, so here goes for today.
TOR - 1 unit @-200
DET/BOS O8.5 - 1 unit @-105
BAL - 0.5 units @+205
NYY - 1 unit @+100
STL TT O5 - 1 unit @+100

DET/BOS U8 - 1 unit @-115
TB - 1 unit @+125
PHI - 1 unit @-175
STL RL - 1 unit @-145
SD - 1 unit @+130
LAD - 1 unit @+102

Up just under 7 units so far this season. I guess it's just beginner's luck so far.

Here's to a great second half, TA

[dodger33]

Good stuff there dodger33. You should post some picks too! I had SFO and the under today. Are you able to bet against your team? lol. I always find it hard to bet against my Cubbies, but that seems to be where the money always is at haha.

You know the sad thing is he pitched awesome. It was Broxton that blew it (shocker). Barring an offensive explosion or Kershaw going 8 innings and giving up 2 or less runs I can't see the Dodgers winning tonight. I was looking to see Kershaw favored tonight and the fact that he is now a dog that tells me all I need to know. I've said it many times before and I should have just stuck to it but when Manny is out of the line up take the under and go against the Dodgers. For whatever reason opposing pitchers pitch a completely different game when he is not in the line up.

[TodaysAction]

Special thanks to dodger33, they are appreciated.

[TodaysAction]

DET/BOS U8 - 1 unit @-115
TB - 1 unit @+125
PHI - 1 unit @-175
STL RL - 1 unit @-145
SD - 1 unit @+130
LAD - 1 unit @+102

Up just under 7 units so far this season. I guess it's just beginner's luck so far.

Here's to a great second half, TA

Right back at you.

[dodger33]

Seriously, you ought to read his thoughts on his team's games. Bookmark his thread because for some STUPID reason, it keeps getting buried. He won't win every time, who does?, but he has good insights and I am grateful he adds them to our thread as well as his own.

Thanks Terry! Anxiously awaiting Manny's return. But if they can't figure out how to win by mid August, when manny is set to return, it wont matter how hot they get because it could be to late.

[dodger33]

5 strong wagers to start off August! Lets make some money today!

[lovetobet]

Thanks dude...had to allow myself a "vanity" pat on the back for that one..I have posted stuff that has been off in here as well.....does not always work...Happ shut out the Brewers last nite......anyway...value is value ...win or lose...

Oh yeah bro, you deserved the pat on the back. It's one of those things that I like about TA's thread, we can discuss and disagree about games without people getting their panties in a bunch. I like being able to discuss games. One of the reasons I put the question back to you, is I truly didn't see the value, I thought the line looked about right, so I wanted to understand if you were seeing something I wasn't. You listed your facts and I always find that helpful. I really like the collaboration and discussion in this thread, I find it very helpful.

Keep up the good work gentlement, BOL today to all of us and congratulations on the solid day yesterday, couldn't chime in yesterday, I was busy fishing all night, or should I say catching all night

[lovetobet]

Dodger 33 - are you chasing this thing today. I hope not but I think you probably are, I'd like to say good luck but like I said against my Giants I can't go there for ya. I hope you lose your chase and the Giants sweep but I hope you go on a tear for the next week or two and win it all back plus some.

We'll see what happens tonight but like I said I didn't see the value going on a chase against the hottest team in the MLB, at home, with their 1-2-3 pitchers going.

But like I said, if you lose, I seriously hope you go on a tear starting tomorrow, you seem like a good guy, despite the fact you're a Dodger fan

[dodger33]

I appreciate it lovetobet. I did not play them yesterday i ended up backing out so i dont think i am going to today. Ely was supposed to start and then even after Torre said he wouln't mess with Billingsly, because he has been pitching great lately, he moved Billingsly up on 4 days rest and I just did not like the match up. The Dodgers are truly sad against lefties this year. I think they should be able to score a couple of runs tonight but I cannot decide which Kershaw is going to show up. My prediction is Dodgers 3 SF 2. If Kershaw is walking people in the first inning though it will be a long night for him.

[mebaran]

Thank you mebaran. Three or four bad days in a row did damage, but we survived. July historically is a tricky month and I've found a few things that are being back tested for next season as this is being typed. FYI, as soon as SBR Escrow pays me, when I log in the next time, I will gladly forward you the graders amount agreed upon, fifty SBR points. If you need it sooner, let me know and I'll send it without issue or concern. Again, thanks for grading/scoring the July Challenge.

I actually forgot about that haha. Whenever's convenient for you, sir. Thank you, I appreciate them.

[Tommy_de1st]

How old is the little one in your avatar now?

She was born on May 31 this year of course. She's 2 months old.

August had some adjustments put into the processes that provided more cash flow.

Ok, I'll have a look at your plays. Do you pick them studying stats or computer does it for you?