MLB - Wednesday, 5/15/19

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    MLB - Wednesday, 5/15/19
    4 MLB Plays Wednesday

    Pirates +146 (5 Dimes)
    Reds -115 (5 Dimes)
    Rockies +130 (Heritage)
    Cardinals +123 (Heritage)


    YTD: 85-90-5, -2.81
  • spippen
    SBR MVP
    • 03-17-09
    • 3874

    #2
    GL with the picks today LT.

    It's refreshing not seeing the Marlins on this list. High school teams would beat them, respectfully.
    Comment
    • jimmycage
      SBR High Roller
      • 01-01-18
      • 124

      #3
      the marlins have multiple wins over the astros, phillies, braves, cardinals, rays and some good pitchers.
      Comment
      • LT Profits
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-27-06
        • 90963

        #4
        Originally posted by jimmycage
        the marlins have multiple wins over the astros, phillies, braves, cardinals, rays and some good pitchers.
        Right but they have lost every time I had them, including last night.

        Good news is I split the game as I also had the Under. Bad news is it was my only winner last night (1-4).
        Comment
        • funnyb25
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 07-09-09
          • 39663

          #5
          BOL today LT
          Comment
          • Big Bear
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 11-01-11
            • 43253

            #6
            How confident are we LT?
            Comment
            • LT Profits
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-27-06
              • 90963

              #7
              Originally posted by Big Bear
              How confident are we LT?
              I am all about the numbers and do not get emotional, so confidence level is always the same. I expect to finish + units at the end of the season while accepting there will be some bumpy roads along the way.
              Comment
              • LT Profits
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 10-27-06
                • 90963

                #8
                1 MLB Addition

                5 MLB Plays Wednesday

                Pirates +146 (5 Dimes)
                Reds -115 (5 Dimes)
                Mets +149 (Bookmaker)
                Rockies +130 (Heritage)
                Cardinals +123 (Heritage)
                Comment
                • stackz125
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 01-03-16
                  • 6191

                  #9
                  Thoughts about Minnesota game
                  Comment
                  • LT Profits
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 10-27-06
                    • 90963

                    #10
                    Originally posted by stackz125
                    Thoughts about Minnesota game
                    Angels or pass, Minnesota 54% (-117)
                    Comment
                    • Big Bear
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 11-01-11
                      • 43253

                      #11
                      So we thinking archer has a good game for the buccos?
                      Comment
                      • LT Profits
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 10-27-06
                        • 90963

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Big Bear
                        So we thinking archer has a good game for the buccos?
                        I am high on both starters, both better than 15% above average with Greinke about 3% better. But everything shakes out to DBacks 55% (-122) so price is right on Buccos.
                        Comment
                        • lakerboy
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 04-02-09
                          • 94379

                          #13
                          Originally posted by LT Profits
                          Right but they have lost every time I had them, including last night.

                          Good news is I split the game as I also had the Under. Bad news is it was my only winner last night (1-4).
                          I stopped taking the Marlins. I had the same problem
                          Comment
                          • sosawestbrook
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-10-16
                            • 3135

                            #14
                            Originally posted by LT Profits
                            I am high on both starters, both better than 15% above average with Greinke about 3% better. But everything shakes out to DBacks 55% (-122) so price is right on Buccos.
                            Why so high on Archer? In my eyes he’s been an average pitcher. Unless you believe he still has some of that 2013-2015 stuff in the tank. He did look good in his first 3 starts though. Until LA tagged em for 6
                            Comment
                            • Big Bear
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 11-01-11
                              • 43253

                              #15
                              Originally posted by sosawestbrook
                              Why so high on Archer? In my eyes he’s been an average pitcher. Unless you believe he still has some of that 2013-2015 stuff in the tank. He did look good in his first 3 starts though. Until LA tagged em for 6

                              Yeah that’s what I was thinking

                              I feel like his stuff is not what it once was
                              Comment
                              • LT Profits
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 10-27-06
                                • 90963

                                #16
                                Originally posted by sosawestbrook
                                Why so high on Archer? In my eyes he’s been an average pitcher. Unless you believe he still has some of that 2013-2015 stuff in the tank. He did look good in his first 3 starts though. Until LA tagged em for 6
                                Once he cuts his walks down, he should return to his normal level. He has never walked more that 3.00/9 in any season, this year so far he is at 4.00, that most likely will not continue as he builds his innings back up. He is still getting his strikeouts, which is a good sign, and his normal level is a career 3.48 xFIP.
                                Comment
                                • LT Profits
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 10-27-06
                                  • 90963

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Big Bear
                                  I feel like his stuff is not what it once was
                                  He is striking out more than a batter per inning, his stuff is fine.
                                  Comment
                                  • eaglesfan371
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-08-19
                                    • 4079

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                                    Once he cuts his walks down, he should return to his normal level. He has never walked more that 3.00/9 in any season, this year so far he is at 4.00, that most likely will not continue as he builds his innings back up. He is still getting his strikeouts, which is a good sign, and his normal level is a career 3.48 xFIP.
                                    Do you factor in age for players, so that when players begin to tank with age (lower BAA, higher ERA) your model accounts for that rather than saying “He has had worse numbers than expected but he will return to his normal self soon!”.

                                    At what point do you just consider their current results to be closer to the mean population for their stats than previous years? For example couple of pitchers go 3-4 years with 3.5 ERA or less then all of sudden blow up, next few years 5+ ERA.
                                    Comment
                                    • LT Profits
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 10-27-06
                                      • 90963

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by eaglesfan371
                                      Do you factor in age for players, so that when players begin to tank with age (lower BAA, higher ERA) your model accounts for that rather than saying “He has had worse numbers than expected but he will return to his normal self soon!”. At what point do you just consider their current results to be closer to the population than previous years? For example couple of pitchers go 3-4 years with 3.5 ERA or less then all of sudden blow up, next few years 5+ ERA.
                                      Recent seasons are weighted a bit heavier so that automatically incorporates age. Plus that are saber indicators that would point to a steep decline, and Archer looks fine, just like I said with Chris Sale when guys said he was "finished" a few weeks ago.
                                      Comment
                                      • stackz125
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 01-03-16
                                        • 6191

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by LT Profits
                                        Angels or pass, Minnesota 54% (-117)
                                        Wow... only 117
                                        Huge difference
                                        Comment
                                        • eaglesfan371
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-08-19
                                          • 4079

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by LT Profits
                                          Recent seasons are weighted a bit heavier so that automatically incorporates age. Plus that are saber indicators that would point to a steep decline, and Archer looks fine, just like I said with Chris Sale when guys said he was "finished" a few weeks ago.
                                          Make sense, all about those weights.

                                          Sale might’ve done good last night but his team still lost 😛
                                          Comment
                                          • LT Profits
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 10-27-06
                                            • 90963

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by stackz125
                                            Wow... only 117
                                            Huge difference
                                            Angels became intriguing at +133 as that is 3% variance from model, but passed because I never like to see line run away from model.
                                            Comment
                                            • LT Profits
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 10-27-06
                                              • 90963

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by eaglesfan371
                                              Make sense, all about those weights.

                                              Sale might’ve done good last night but his team still lost ��
                                              Does not matter that team lost, shit happens. Point is Sale is fine.
                                              Comment
                                              • Big Bear
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 11-01-11
                                                • 43253

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                He is striking out more than a batter per inning, his stuff is fine.
                                                Okay I’m sold taking the Pirates

                                                Please don’t fukk me on this lol
                                                Comment
                                                • LT Profits
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 10-27-06
                                                  • 90963

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Big Bear
                                                  Okay I’m sold taking the Pirates

                                                  Please don’t fukk me on this lol
                                                  No guarantees, I don't rate plays because I plays them all the same. So don't hate me if I go 4-1 with Pirates only loser.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Big Bear
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 11-01-11
                                                    • 43253

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                    No guarantees, I don't rate plays because I plays them all the same. So don't hate me if I go 4-1 with Pirates only loser.
                                                    lol I was jk but lets hope they win
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Big Bear
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 11-01-11
                                                      • 43253

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                      He is striking out more than a batter per inning, his stuff is fine.
                                                      Archer is off to a bit of a rocky start
                                                      Comment
                                                      • spippen
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 03-17-09
                                                        • 3874

                                                        #28
                                                        You never know when the Pirates just won't score runs. Their run differential always makes me think twice before taking them. Not a bad team, just not a power house. Wishing you luck on the rest of the card tonight LT.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • 2daBank
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 01-26-09
                                                          • 88966

                                                          #29
                                                          Pirates got raped in the archer trade. Not only is Glasnow becoming a beast but they got meadows also!! Sucks for tampons that it sounds like Glasnow could be headed for TJ tho., that the unfortunate thing for rays, with their salary restrictions they can still compete but unlike the big boys when they take injuries they don’t have the resources to overcome them..

                                                          Archer has never developed that 3rd pitch he needs to be elite.
                                                          Comment
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