MLB - Wednesday, 5/15/19

spippen · 05-15-19, 07:04 AM

GL with the picks today LT.

It's refreshing not seeing the Marlins on this list. High school teams would beat them, respectfully.

jimmycage · 05-15-19, 07:58 AM

the marlins have multiple wins over the astros, phillies, braves, cardinals, rays and some good pitchers.

LT Profits · 05-15-19, 08:25 AM

Originally posted by jimmycage

the marlins have multiple wins over the astros, phillies, braves, cardinals, rays and some good pitchers.

Right but they have lost every time I had them, including last night.

Good news is I split the game as I also had the Under. Bad news is it was my only winner last night (1-4).

funnyb25 · 05-15-19, 08:47 AM

BOL today LT

Big Bear · 05-15-19, 08:48 AM

How confident are we LT?

LT Profits · 05-15-19, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

How confident are we LT?

I am all about the numbers and do not get emotional, so confidence level is always the same. I expect to finish + units at the end of the season while accepting there will be some bumpy roads along the way.

LT Profits · 05-15-19, 09:36 AM

1 MLB Addition

5 MLB Plays Wednesday

Pirates +146 (5 Dimes)
Reds -115 (5 Dimes)
Mets +149 (Bookmaker)
Rockies +130 (Heritage)
Cardinals +123 (Heritage)

stackz125 · 05-15-19, 09:42 AM

Thoughts about Minnesota game

LT Profits · 05-15-19, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by stackz125

Thoughts about Minnesota game

Angels or pass, Minnesota 54% (-117)

Big Bear · 05-15-19, 09:58 AM

So we thinking archer has a good game for the buccos?

LT Profits · 05-15-19, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

So we thinking archer has a good game for the buccos?

I am high on both starters, both better than 15% above average with Greinke about 3% better. But everything shakes out to DBacks 55% (-122) so price is right on Buccos.

lakerboy · 05-15-19, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Right but they have lost every time I had them, including last night.

Good news is I split the game as I also had the Under. Bad news is it was my only winner last night (1-4).

I stopped taking the Marlins. I had the same problem

sosawestbrook · 05-15-19, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I am high on both starters, both better than 15% above average with Greinke about 3% better. But everything shakes out to DBacks 55% (-122) so price is right on Buccos.

Why so high on Archer? In my eyes he’s been an average pitcher. Unless you believe he still has some of that 2013-2015 stuff in the tank. He did look good in his first 3 starts though. Until LA tagged em for 6

Big Bear · 05-15-19, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by sosawestbrook

Why so high on Archer? In my eyes he’s been an average pitcher. Unless you believe he still has some of that 2013-2015 stuff in the tank. He did look good in his first 3 starts though. Until LA tagged em for 6

Yeah that’s what I was thinking

I feel like his stuff is not what it once was

LT Profits · 05-15-19, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by sosawestbrook

Why so high on Archer? In my eyes he’s been an average pitcher. Unless you believe he still has some of that 2013-2015 stuff in the tank. He did look good in his first 3 starts though. Until LA tagged em for 6

Once he cuts his walks down, he should return to his normal level. He has never walked more that 3.00/9 in any season, this year so far he is at 4.00, that most likely will not continue as he builds his innings back up. He is still getting his strikeouts, which is a good sign, and his normal level is a career 3.48 xFIP.

LT Profits · 05-15-19, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

I feel like his stuff is not what it once was

He is striking out more than a batter per inning, his stuff is fine.

eaglesfan371 · 05-15-19, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Once he cuts his walks down, he should return to his normal level. He has never walked more that 3.00/9 in any season, this year so far he is at 4.00, that most likely will not continue as he builds his innings back up. He is still getting his strikeouts, which is a good sign, and his normal level is a career 3.48 xFIP.

Do you factor in age for players, so that when players begin to tank with age (lower BAA, higher ERA) your model accounts for that rather than saying “He has had worse numbers than expected but he will return to his normal self soon!”.

At what point do you just consider their current results to be closer to the mean population for their stats than previous years? For example couple of pitchers go 3-4 years with 3.5 ERA or less then all of sudden blow up, next few years 5+ ERA.

LT Profits · 05-15-19, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by eaglesfan371

Do you factor in age for players, so that when players begin to tank with age (lower BAA, higher ERA) your model accounts for that rather than saying “He has had worse numbers than expected but he will return to his normal self soon!”. At what point do you just consider their current results to be closer to the population than previous years? For example couple of pitchers go 3-4 years with 3.5 ERA or less then all of sudden blow up, next few years 5+ ERA.

Recent seasons are weighted a bit heavier so that automatically incorporates age. Plus that are saber indicators that would point to a steep decline, and Archer looks fine, just like I said with Chris Sale when guys said he was "finished" a few weeks ago.

stackz125 · 05-15-19, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Angels or pass, Minnesota 54% (-117)

Wow... only 117
Huge difference

eaglesfan371 · 05-15-19, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Recent seasons are weighted a bit heavier so that automatically incorporates age. Plus that are saber indicators that would point to a steep decline, and Archer looks fine, just like I said with Chris Sale when guys said he was "finished" a few weeks ago.

Make sense, all about those weights.

Sale might’ve done good last night but his team still lost 😛

LT Profits · 05-15-19, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by stackz125

Wow... only 117
Huge difference

Angels became intriguing at +133 as that is 3% variance from model, but passed because I never like to see line run away from model.

LT Profits · 05-15-19, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by eaglesfan371

Make sense, all about those weights.

Sale might’ve done good last night but his team still lost ��

Does not matter that team lost, shit happens. Point is Sale is fine.

Big Bear · 05-15-19, 11:53 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

He is striking out more than a batter per inning, his stuff is fine.

Okay I’m sold taking the Pirates

Please don’t fukk me on this lol

LT Profits · 05-15-19, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

Okay I’m sold taking the Pirates

Please don’t fukk me on this lol

No guarantees, I don't rate plays because I plays them all the same. So don't hate me if I go 4-1 with Pirates only loser.

Big Bear · 05-15-19, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

No guarantees, I don't rate plays because I plays them all the same. So don't hate me if I go 4-1 with Pirates only loser.

lol I was jk but lets hope they win

Big Bear · 05-15-19, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

He is striking out more than a batter per inning, his stuff is fine.

Archer is off to a bit of a rocky start

spippen · 05-15-19, 05:03 PM

You never know when the Pirates just won't score runs. Their run differential always makes me think twice before taking them. Not a bad team, just not a power house. Wishing you luck on the rest of the card tonight LT.

2daBank · 05-15-19, 05:09 PM

Pirates got raped in the archer trade. Not only is Glasnow becoming a beast but they got meadows also!! Sucks for tampons that it sounds like Glasnow could be headed for TJ tho., that the unfortunate thing for rays, with their salary restrictions they can still compete but unlike the big boys when they take injuries they don’t have the resources to overcome them..

Archer has never developed that 3rd pitch he needs to be elite.