Hotcross MLB 2019 Thread

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Background: my first ongoing thread at SBR was when I joined in August 2017. Did MLB thread which went down -30.78 units within 3 weeks time, but stuck with it, ending the World Series at -1.08 units overall.

Then 2018, did a season long MLB thread in which I lost approximately -100 units.

I do in fact play all of my posted wagers for real money. I do not 'flat bet' meaning the amount of units per pick are spread generally in a range of 1 to 5.

My reasoning for posting in terms of Units is anybody can fade or follow (or simply read for entertainment) based on the dollar amount they wish to assign to a unit. That is personal. I will say each unit for me is no less than $100, and I am playing for real. Sometimes I go on a good run, but the overall results speak for itself.

So I will attempt to improve this season, and endeavor to minimize the downswings.

Some picks might look stupid whether they win or lose. I will probably not be posting many write-ups this year, but maybe some along the way.

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Saturday March 30

MIAMI +119 ML // 3 units to win 3.57

OK a mini write-up on this pick. Pablo Lopez the young Miami pitcher looked real good in Spring Training, sporting a 3-0 W/L record which I realize means jack diddly. He struggled mightily last season in his rookie campaign, of course being on a bad team doesn't help him win games. But here are the Marlins today hosting this 4-game home opener season, and have lost the first 2 games to the visiting Rockies. Whether stupid, nonsensical, or whatever, my money is on Miami today as a spot pick for the reasons I mentioned, plus a couple more.

[2daBank]

Gl brotha.

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man, I just looked around the threads today, everyone seems to be on Miami.....

well lemme stay positive thinking we are all smart today

[pimike]

Good luck this year!!

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Record keeping gonna be simplified in this thread, going to try to keep an ongoing record, without always listing the final scores.

Miami got the home win Saturday 7-3, for that matter also won 3-0 on Sunday.

So thread is 1-0 for +3.57 units

My head is still mostly on hockey. Gonna ease into baseball. My plan for this year = is some days I won't have any plays, and others could be heavy volume. I will also be trying to double-up sometimes on the same team after they win one day...that would have worked Sat. and Sun. with Miami, for example. So I might have some double-up plays risking higher than 5 units. I will try not to chase a team when they lose a game that I picked them to win.

In other words, try to hit winning streak teams, while avoiding losing streaks.

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Tuesday April 2

OVER 9 -105 HOU@TEX // 1.05 units to win 1


still looking at the later games....

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some clutch fielding by both teams just thru top 2nd is limiting the scoring so far... Astros up 2-0

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there we go, Asdrubal Cabrera with a 2-run blast off Verlander in bottom 2nd, ties score at 2-2

just like to make notes sometimes to help me track

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adding ::

SAN DIEGO -117 ML // 1.17 units to win 1

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Results: Apr.2 = -0.17 units (1-1 W/L)
OVERALL: +3.40 units (2-1 W/L)

Wed. April 3

HOUSTON -1 -110 first five innings // 3.30 units to win 3

I don't know how many books offer this -1 spread for the first five innings. But I have it available. Helps to reduce the juice on a heavy favorite, and obviously a push is possible if favorite leads by just one run after 5 innings.

If anyone viewing could confirm, do they offer this at 5dimes?? just curious

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adding ::

UNDER 5 -110 first five inn. HOU@TEX // 3.30 units to win 3



By the way, nobody answered my question yet, but the book I have also offers the underdog alternative spreads for the first five innings. So for TEX tonight...

-0.5 @ +225
-1 @ +342

just interesting

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Results: Apr.3 = -0.30 units (1-1 W/L)
OVERALL: +3.10 units (3-2 W/L)


Under cashes in the first five innings, but Houston does not. Texas leads 3-0 score. So in my above post, either of those reverse spreads would have won big on Texas.

I will say in hindsight Houston was a bad pick, given they haven't played in good form this season. But it played out tonight even stranger than expected, as the Houston manager and one of the assistants got themselves ejected from the game in the 2nd or 3rd inning for arguing with the home plate ump Ron Kulpa. That's beyond frustration on their part.

Oh well, moving on. I'll try harder.

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Thursday April 4

TORONTO +175 ML // 1 unit to win 1.75

Odds seem way out of whack here. Two good pitchers going at it on a cool/cold 6pm start time in Cleveland, for Toronto's first road game of the season.

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Cleveland is still getting late money, looks like could have got up to +190 on Toronto had I waited. Not super-confident in this pick, but I see a few factors aligning making it worthwhile. Cleveland has nothing going on so far this season.

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adding ::

CHICAGO CUBS +110 ML // 5 units to win 5.50

Cubs are 1-4 W/L on the season and having big problems. I don't care tonight. Atlanta has some issues going on also. OK in part this is one of those "Cubs ain't getting swept" picks, but more to it than that. Darvish got knocked out of his first start in Texas, but has previous good numbers against some of these Braves. Atlanta meantime is starting Max Fried - that's the dude's name!!! So how can you not fade that? Is this a bullpen gameplan for Atlanta, or they hoping to get something from Fried? He's a lefty, going against the mostly right-hitting Cubs lineup. Whatever, I'm gambling it up with the Cubs tonight. Game starts in 15-minutes.

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^^ most frustrating game to be on the Cubs. They just broke up a 'perfect game' Max Fried had going thru 5 and 2/3 innings. But go back earlier in the game, Darvish seemed to be fighting himself a little, but then finding a rhythm, but then he blew it like 3 batters in a row against the lower half of the lineup, on counts he was ahead 1-2, another 0-2, etc.

Right there it was 4th inning I believe and although his pitch count wasn't high, you could see right there Darvish didn't have it again tonight. But after allowing 1 run that inning then they bring him out for the 5th, and the first 2 Braves reach base, so then it was like hurry and get Edwards on the mound - he wasn't prepared and could hardly throw a strike. Braves go up 6-0 on a bases clearing double, and this thing is done by the end of 5th. And to top it off, its been raining basically from the start but both teams had to play thru it.

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Results: Apr.4 = -6.00 units (0-2 W/L)
OVERALL: -2.90 units (3-4 W/L)


Swing and a miss

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Friday Apr.5

CHW WHITE SOX +115 ML // 1 unit to win 1.15

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adding ::

SAN FRANCISCO +100 ML // 1 unit to win 1

TORONTO +127 ML // 1 unit to win 1.27

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adding ::

UNDER 4.5 -112 TEX@LAA first five innings // 2.24 units to win 2

I may never do this again if it loses, play an Under anything for an American League game. Of course, I've said those words before.

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Results: Apr.5 = +1.15 units (2-2 W/L)
OVERALL: -1.75 units (5-6 W/L)


Coulda just played the one pick, first pick posted yesterday on White Sox and went 1-0 for the same +1.15 units

That was a wild game against the Mariners on Friday

Meantime SF got behind 4 runs in the top of the first, then the rest of that game went 2-1 scoring to the Giants.

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Saturday April 6

TEAM TOTAL ARIZONA OVER 3.5 -135 // 3 units to win 2.22

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adding ::

COLORADO +111 ML // 2 units to win 2.22

UNDER 10 +104 LAD@COL // 1 unit to win 1.04

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Arizona scored 4 runs off David Price in the bottom of the 2nd, so they remain hot and that was easy.

Meantime, the game in Denver was probably not smart. Those Rockies home games usually feel like increased luck factor.

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Results: Apr.6 = +1.26 units (2-1 W/L)
OVERALL: -0.49 units (7-7 W/L)


Clarifying what I said earlier, the better, hotter team won tonight in Denver. Just meant to say the thin air and big field increase the randomness there. Dodgers won 7-2 score.

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Sunday April 7

KANSAS CITY -110 ML // 1.10 units to win 1

MIAMI +145 first five inn. ML // 2 units to win 2.90
*push if tied after five inn.

TEAM TOTAL MIAMI OVER 3.5 +100 // 3 units to win 3

TEAM TOTAL BALTIMORE OVER 3.5 -110 // 2.20 units to win 2

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Results: Apr.7 = -8.30 units (0-4 W/L)
OVERALL: -8.79 units (7-11 W/L)

What a lovely way to end the week. OK so a good wake-up call not to burn money on bad teams.


Monday April 8

UNDER 5.5 -115 OAK@BALT // 1.15 units to win 1


sorry for the last-minute posts before game-time. I will make a better effort to post sooner for those fading or tailing.

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I meant to clarify that is obviously a First Five innings Under 5.5

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adding ::

KANSAS CITY +100 ML // 3 units to win 3

LA ANGELS -105 ML // 1.05 units to win 1

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adding ::

SAN DIEGO +122 ML // 2 units to win 2.44


that's it for today

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Results: Apr.8 = -0.71 units (2-2 W/L)
OVERALL: -9.50 units (9-13 W/L)

A little better yesterday. But man the Royals bullpen was terrible, they had an early lead in that game until getting bombed, including one inning Encarnacion hit 2 homeruns...in the same inning!


Tuesday April 9

TORONTO +234 ML // 1.50 units to win 3.51

Blue Jays offense has been miserable, and this pick would appear stupid, facing Chris Sale and the World Champion Boston Red Sox in their home opener on the season. But I've got 2 angles to this game. 1. Might catch Boston un-focused. 2. Boston offense has also not been clicking, and on a cool day game with two good pitchers going, this might be the type of game Toronto can hang-in.

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adding ::

TAMPA BAY -162 ML // 1.62 units to win 1

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Results: Apr.9 = +4.51 units (2-0 W/L)
OVERALL: -4.99 units (11-13 W/L)

Gonna take the 2-0 winning day that I need and move on. Nothing jumping out at me on tonight's card anyway.

[pimike]

Results: Apr.9 = +4.51 units (2-0 W/L)
OVERALL: -4.99 units (11-13 W/L)

Gonna take the 2-0 winning day that I need and move on. Nothing jumping out at me on tonight's card anyway.

Nice day bud! Let’s get the NHL Playoffs.