Betting Favorites - New Trial System

Panekkkk · 08-06-09, 11:44 AM

Nice, Florida up 2-0 took em first five as well

Panekkkk · 08-06-09, 12:06 PM

Wow it took a wild pitch for the Twinkies to finally score. 0-10 with RISP, with 14 LOB in the 4th inning only ...!!!!! This should be 5-0 right now.

Panekkkk · 08-06-09, 12:36 PM

This is one of the saddest ball games I've watched in my life. 18 LOB in the FIFTH INNING and 1 run to show for it, scored on a wild pitch ...

Panekkkk · 08-06-09, 12:46 PM

I also was going to lay HEAVY on Detroit and didn't realize it was a 1 pm game........

DMB40 · 08-06-09, 12:58 PM

6-3 come on fla

keel44 · 08-06-09, 01:05 PM

Twins 3-4-5 hitters combined 9 left on base. Into the Indians bullpen now, should rack in a few runs.

HighVoltage · 08-06-09, 01:16 PM

Florida's manager is a ****ING DUMBASS. He was trying to let Volstad go 5 innings so he could qualify for the win. Volstad is getting "SHELLED"!!! He doesn't deserve to get a win!

Panekkkk · 08-06-09, 01:16 PM

This is crazyness, once again these picks are getting screwed by leaving the starting pitchers in too long!!! Cleveland now takes the lead after Minny leaves 13 RISP. This has been happening a lot lately and is a real pisser!

Panekkkk · 08-06-09, 01:18 PM

High ... I know man. This is literally the 5th game this week that I can remember completely being screwed by leaving pitchers in too long. And Florida did it to me last time with Johnson! I'm literally speechless. What's more important? Winning the game or giving your starting pitcher the W because you risk looking like an absolute TOOL if you blow leads like this over and over again.

Panekkkk · 08-06-09, 01:19 PM

I don't even know what to say anymore. I'm a pessimist at heart but even this is ridiculous.

Barely won my first five bet and am pretty confident florida will now lose. Add to that, same mistake made int he Cleveland game. Let's hope for a turnaround!!!

DMB40 · 08-06-09, 02:09 PM

this is such a joke 8-8

DMB40 · 08-06-09, 02:43 PM

9-8 unreal

Panekkkk · 08-06-09, 03:26 PM

Yah, once they tied it up I basically counted it as a loss. Florida's manager literally deserves to be fired for something like that. Call it harsh but that's a season-ending swing right there. Two terrible calls in the same series is unforgivable. I hope he gets fired.

thegenix · 08-06-09, 03:46 PM

Wow. Should have had a 3-0 start but of course we wind up 1-2. Heartbreaker.

CashMoney · 08-06-09, 05:14 PM

I'm putting the Fish in the same bucket as the damn Jays. No action from here on out

on both of them.

MrMannix · 08-06-09, 05:27 PM

Tough luck today, Panekkk. Total BS- at least you know that you're on the right track by losing these games in conspicous scenarios and not getting blown out. These games should have been winners for you. Don't let it distract you from the goal. Stay focused and keep up the good work.
Thanks for the daily posts.
GLTA

Panekkkk · 08-06-09, 07:34 PM

Yeah that was pretty rough. I actually played the Marlins first five because of bad memories last time, I played the ML as well though so lost some units on the juice! Hit on the Rangers and some other bets. System bets just aren't doing well but ****, can you blame it!!! I shoulda made the Marlins another first five bet and we mighta gone 3-1.

Hopefully the Yanks pull it out and the Sparks pull it out in WNBA and I might actually end up some nice units!

rayt13 · 08-06-09, 08:47 PM

I'm glad unlike everyone else the yanks were smart and pulled jaba early

Panekkkk · 08-07-09, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

August 6, 2009

Yankees -172
Marlins -145

(First Five won though)
Phillies -168

Twins -143

Parlay Marlins x Phils x Twins 1 unit to win 3.4

Another subpar day yesterday. I added some units with other plays. Not sure on parlay yet. Chamberlain has been stellar of late but Red Sox batters really have his number. Smoltz has been terrible but if the Sox bats step up, even his poor play may not be a factor. Blackburn historically owns Cleveland but has been terrible over his last 3. Carmona coming off injury is still a big question mark however. Philliies dominate Cook and Marlins should avoid the sweep.

SU
YTD: 59-24 +22.73 Units

PARLAYS
YTD: 4-12 +9.31 Units

UNDERS
YTD: 2-1 +0.67 units

Well another rough night. Picks were on point, but some shoddy management (Marlins) and the Twins going 0-13 with RISP and more shoddy management ruined what coulda been a good night! Shoulda made Florida a first five bet and woulda been 3-1. I personally played it and turned a nice profit on some other plays. Today the Padres and Jays both qualify, but as you know, NO JAYS is the rule. They never win when they are supposed to (Halladay etc.) and win when they shouldn't. With that said, Jays historically OWN the Orioles. Seriously own. But be warned, the Orioles have STELLAR numbers vs. Romero. Over might be the call in this game. As for the Padres, they are so bad that they should never be heavily favoured. They took a game yesterday and may well do it again today but I won't make either of these system plays. If you like 'em, go ahead and play 'em.

themajormt · 08-07-09, 09:25 AM

Panekkkkkkkkkkkkkkk Whats up mang??

Panekkkk · 08-07-09, 09:30 AM

Picks (Unofficial) with discussion:

Angels -126 - Angels scored in six or more innings last game and now return home. Anyone following SBR knows this is a strong system (25-12 this system last 5 years).
Angels TT over 4.5 or maybe the total over - Both are + money in these situations, more confident in TT
CWS -200 (a lot of juice but everything favours the White Sox here, -1 or -1.5 might be better but prolly stayin away)
Padres/Mets Over/Under at 7.5? -- Why is the total only 7.5 with Perez pitching? The books are really counting on a 3-1 Padres win here, either way it might be a squeeker. But with such a low number how do you not go over? Sounds fishy. Yesterday total was 7.5 and it sailed over. Not sure about this.

themajormt · 08-07-09, 09:35 AM

I am contemplating LAA, Kinsler being out makes this enticing and LAA has eaten up righties...

Panekkkk · 08-07-09, 09:39 AM

What's up major! Glad to have you back. At that low juice don't be afraid to bet LAA. Feldman has been great but you can't go against a trend like that (16-6 last 5 years when a team scored in six or more innings in their previous game on the road and returned home as a favourite -120 or heavier)

themajormt · 08-07-09, 09:46 AM

Exactly... Also really like Philly after the Marlins getting swept by the Nats. Also looking at Detroit at home...

I needed a vacation after the weekend from hell

Panekkkk · 08-07-09, 10:03 AM

Hah well win some nice cake and take some time off!

themajormt · 08-07-09, 10:07 AM

Took the Angels and Phils... Laying off Detroit for now, also took Cubs over, I am not sure why but it was a gut call, didnt even do any research on it, just looked good

Panekkkk · 08-07-09, 10:10 AM

Yeah I think the Phillies get it done but Nolasco is tough to go against right now. And stay away from Galaraga he has been terrible lately!

themajormt · 08-07-09, 10:31 AM

I know but I think the major difference in the Phils game is the bullpens and coaching! After yesterdays debacle I gotta go with the Phils. I also thing Gallaraga at home gets back to form today but cant do it vs the Twins...

Panekkkk · 08-07-09, 11:06 AM

Well, I'm working on analyzing a fading system for teams that leave more than 20 runners on base (batters total LOB, not team LOB). Twins batters stranded 23, and results are in the plus for fading these teams their next game. A little more to it than that but still. Galaragga has decent numbers vs. the Twinkies and they went 0 for 13 with RISP. Actually, Phillies and Yankees are both plays using this system.

DMB40 · 08-07-09, 11:56 AM

What about betting against the nationals today panekkk?

Panekkkk · 08-07-09, 12:25 PM

Yeah, I do like Arizona to win today as well. They lit up the bats last night but Washington has been hitting heavy too!

MrMannix · 08-07-09, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Well, I'm working on analyzing a fading system for teams that leave more than 20 runners on base (batters total LOB, not team LOB). Twins batters stranded 23, and results are in the plus for fading these teams their next game. A little more to it than that but still. Galaragga has decent numbers vs. the Twinkies and they went 0 for 13 with RISP. Actually, Phillies and Yankees are both plays using this system.

Nice- keep us posted!
No plays on your favorites system today?
I was already on LAA and NYY(think I am playing the Yanks for the rest of this series).
GL on all your plays.

Panekkkk · 08-07-09, 07:34 PM

Jays and Padres were a play but I officially hate betting on the Jays although they will probably win tonight -- of course -- and I just can't bet two games in a row on the Padres. We'll see. I have a lot of plays going today so if they go well I might throw some cash on the Padres.

MrMannix · 08-07-09, 10:33 PM

You were good to filter those plays out today. Need LAA to start scoring

Panekkkk · 08-08-09, 10:56 AM

August 8, 2009

Lots of juice today so not much going. Yesterday ended in the plus as long as Winnipeg and Calgary stay under 57 to finish of my CFL teaser!!!

Dodgers -176 (I like this game for a lot of reasons, Chipper Jones is also expected to be out)
Arizona -133 First Five -0.5
Blue Jays -171 First Five PK
KC -133 First Five -0.5
(Might also throw on the KC First Five pk)
KC Under 9 -137

SU
YTD: 59-24 +22.73 Units

PARLAYS
YTD: 4-12 +9.31 Units

UNDERS
YTD: 2-1 +0.67 units

Also contemplating the Padres - Latos has been a stud but will the Mets really let another one slide after yesterday's debacle!?

Diamondbacks also seem like a decent play but with Upton out and the juice pretty high makes it a tough call. Mock is terrible though.

Verlander and Tigers also a play and fit another system but Pavano surprisingly has the pitching edge on this one, his numbers vs. the Twins are stellar and the Twins will really be out for revenge. Not sure what to make of tihs game either! Tough stuff lately!

Well I hit it hard with the first fives today, we'll see how they pay out though. I like them all. Greinke had a bad game -- he will rebound and shut Oakland down for once. He's better at home, he's better at night and he eats up righties.