Mr. Crumbs Leans for Tuesday 7/7/09

[curious]

Right on curious. Right on.

I will definitely have my eye on your picks for football and basketball at least. Good luck.

By the way, is your avatar a Nick Nolte mug shot?

No, that is not Nolte. A lot of people tell me that he looks like me though.

[cocknocker]

God, I can't see your picks, Tennispro...

It doesn't matter! He livens up the place with choice chickage!

[cocknocker]

Damn curious, I thought all of this time that the avatar was of Nick Nolte as well!

[oda11]

Quote:
Originally Posted by oda11
God, I can't see your picks, Tennispro...

It doesn't matter! He livens up the place with choice chickage!

Haha, I know, that's why I "couldn't" see his picks, LOL

[curious]

Relief pitching WHIP and maybe situational WHIP could pick that up. But you're right, I've never really understood the whole giving the run to the previous pitcher.

I honeslty think the run should be split between both pitchers.

I was thinking more about it this way. The job of a relief pitcher is to improve the situation that they inherit. So, performance should be measured as the difference between the situation when the pitcher entered the game and the situation when the pitcher left the game.

I'm going to paraphrase a post that one of my friends made on Baseball fever discussing this issue, I'll also give the link. http://baseball-fever.com/showpost.p...1&postcount=36

Runners on 1st and 3rd, no one out. The scoring probability is 1.619.

We use that as the reference model.

Now say the reliever gives up a double play ball and the runner on 3rd scores.

Now we have 2 outs with no runners on. The scoring probability is now .095. The next better flies out ending the inning, the scoring probability is now .000.

So, the reliever inherited a situation with a scoring probability of 1.619 and left the game with a scoring probability of .000 with 1 run scored.

So, the relief pitcher would get:
1.619 - 1.00 = .619 runs saved performance points.

The starting pitcher starts the game with no outs, no one one, and a runner at the plate (the batter). This is a scoring probability of .454. When the starter leaves the game with the mess that the relief pitcher inherited, runners at 1st and 3rd with no outs, the starter gets:
.454 - 1.619 = -1.165 performance points.

[Dexter]

tue-

(3x) cubs -110 - cubs are heating up and aram has returned to protect lee. dempster got beat 2-0 to vazquez in atl earlier in the season. dempster gets the nod at home in round 2.

(2x) rays -1.5/+100 - shields has been pitching solid with a 3.43/1.04 in his last 3. revenge angle at play for shields who just lost 5-0 in tor his last start.

(3x) redsox -1.5/-110 (A3)

(1x) whitesox -1.5/+120 - sowers has a 6.75/1.73 in his last 3, and a 7.72/1.64 career vs the whitesox with an 0-5 record. buehrle has a 1.71/1.00 in his last 3 and will be looking to avenge a 5/13 loss at cleav.
added play-

(1x) angels -1.5/+120 - texas took 2 of 3 at home last series to the angels, and la looks locked in now/healthy with their ace lackey on the bump (2.35/1.13 last 3). i can see the angels making this a clean sweep in the battle for first place in the west.

[curious]

Haha, I know, that's why I "couldn't" see his picks, LOL

Tennispro posts picks??

[cocknocker]

Dexter wants blowouts today!

[kmarinouofm]

ck i know you have an account at the greek.. do they not offer team totals in baseball?

[Dexter]

Dexter wants blowouts today!

your friends in the pen (bwilson) helped your cause last night...

[ram1502]

Twins ML +120....Love the Twins in the dome, and they are tearing the cover off the ball winning 4/5
Nats ML +125...I know I know, but Zimmerman is the sh.it and these guys were one hit away from that ever-elusive win last night
Angels RL +125...Lackey is rounding back into form and the Angels bats are hot. WTF is a "Nibbert" anyway?
Giants ML +125..Hate going against JJ, but Zito is showing signs of his former self and the Giants can hit
Royals RL -105...Tailing CK
Mets ML +130...Tailing CK
Orioles ML +125...Tailing CK
Red Sox RL -125...Tailing Dex

A pretty big card, but hopefully all end well. GL ALL

[ram1502]

Yo Dex, I realize it probably doesn't change your play, but did you see that Dempster was scratched? And Zambrano is pitching for the Cubs.

[curious]

Twins ML +120....Love the Twins in the dome, and they are tearing the cover off the ball winning 4/5
Nats ML +125...I know I know, but Zimmerman is the sh.it and these guys were one hit away last night
Angels RL +125...Lackey is rounding back into form and the Angels bars are hot. WTF is a "Nibbert"?
Giants ML +125..Hate going against JJ, but Zito is showing signs of his former self and the Giants can hit
Royals RL -105...Tailing CK
Mets ML +130...Tailing CK
Orioles ML +125...Tailing CK
Red Sox RL -125...Tailing Dex

A pretty big card, but hopefully all end well. GL ALL

Wow, that is a lot of games. Way too many games. You should focus in on one or two games.

[wangichu]

PIT ML

anyone got the stats on the pirates with malholm on the mound, after a loss, and on the road? I know they're good.

CIN ML

good RLM after the public jumped all over the phils. Teams respond to blowouts though and harang is a better pitcher than happ.


MIN ML

pretty damn low line for sabathia, with movement towards minny despite more money on the yanks. Baker is starting to put it together and minny is too good at home to be dogs.

[Dexter]

Wow, that is a lot of games. Way too many games. You should focus in on one or two games.

?? dont you play a ton of games each day yourself?

[ram1502]

Wow, that is a lot of games. Way too many games. You should focus in on one or two games.

Lol Curious. What can I say? I'm an action fiend. Besides, most, if not all, of my bets are + money, so I'm not paying the vig that everybody always bitches about when somebody has too many plays. I almost have as many as you do....

[Dexter]

Yo Dex, I realize it probably doesn't change your play, but did you see that Dempster was scratched? And Zambrano is pitching for the Cubs.

yeah, i see that now....i was playing the cubs on the revenge angle for dempster vs vazquez but also for the fact that i see the cubs starting to roll now. its booked already. we'll see...

im not a huge fan of either zambrano or dumpster...

[spal2811]

i sense some sarcasm from curious..........

[Dexter]

Lol Curious. What can I say? I'm an action fiend. Besides, most, if not all, of my bets are + money, so I'm not paying the vig that everybody always bitches about when somebody has too many plays. I almost have as many as you do....

yeah, baseball is the one sport (where if you consistently play dogs) that i think more bets is actually better....

[maddogmadden86]

CK- good luck on that royals game didnt get it in and to be honest if they pull this one off you truely are the man!

So so far i'm rolling with the Mets Dodgers under 8.5

[ram1502]

yeah, baseball is the one sport (where if you consistently play dogs) that i think more bets is actually better....

I couldn't agree more Dex. Ideally, I have 5-8 plays a day which are all + money. That way, I can still go like 3-5 and break even or even win a little. Don't have to have a very good winning percentage when you are consistently playing dogs for that + money. Now let's all rape the books tonight.

[curious]

The secret to winning big in sports betting...

I couldn't agree more Dex. Ideally, I have 5-8 plays a day which are all + money. That way, I can still go like 3-5 and break even or even win a little. Don't have to have a very good winning percentage when you are consistently playing dogs for that + money. Now let's all rape the books tonight.

Okay, I will give you crackheads the secret to winning big in sports betting. But you have to keep this a SECRET. Promise?










Still Promise?















Okay...here it is:
"Bet more on the winning picks".

[Dexter]

no chipper for atl tonight

[cocknocker]

ck i know you have an account at the greek.. do they not offer team totals in baseball?

I' m no longer at Greek unfortunately. I had to part company wth them. I can't let my book be known over the air, but we can link it up and I'll let you know who and why later on. But not here.

[curious]

I' m no longer at Greek unfortunately. I had to part company wth them. I can't let my book be known over the air, but we can link it up and I'll let you know who and why later on. But not here.

Is it an Italian dude named Rocko? Or a black dude named Lenny? Or a Russian dude named Ivan?

Do you meet in alleys to make your bets and get your pay offs?

[paco]

Bases clearing double by DeJesus!! 3-1 royals

[cocknocker]

Wow, that is a lot of games. Way too many games. You should focus in on one or two games.

I like 4 per day against my OWN better judgement. I do think that it is actually best to wager with 3 games max per day though. I'm just a degenerate. It's harvest time and I have plenty of money so I don't care.

[cocknocker]

Is it an Italian dude named Rocko? Or a black dude named Lenny? Or a Russian dude named Ivan?

Do you meet in alleys to make your bets and get your pay offs?

At the local elementary school. There's a 9 year old guy that has wild lines. I always seem to win!

[ram1502]

Pelfrey walks in a run after having Orlando Hudson down 1 and 2 in the count and now has to face Manny. How gay.

Edit: Manny gets a 2 run single. Great. Freakin Pelfrey

[cocknocker]

No but seriously, my system caused lines to change at my books when I made it public. The one that I use is very discreet. The service is shit, the f*ckers take longer to get you your money than FEMA, but the lines are PRIMO!

[cocknocker]

The Met are gonna be dancing when this one's over. It will happen around the 8th inning. Lady luck is on our side tonight gents! F*ck that! Everybody let's rally for the Mets!


Yay, yay, yay! Let's go Mets!

[paco]

Polanco ties it up at 3

[ram1502]

The Met are gonna be dancing when this one's over. It will happen around the 8th inning. Lady luck is on our side tonight gents! F*ck that! Everybody let's rally for the Mets!


Yay, yay, yay! Let's go Mets!

I hope you're right bro.

[xxdjstriderxx]

I hope you're right bro.

[sportsguy04]

I got tigers/royals under 8.5. Slim hope but both pitchers have settled down. Verlander is dealing with 9k's in 5 innings but is still losing.