MLB Leans ~ Sunday 6/07

[jellobiafra]

Alright I'll take a shot at starting one of these....


I'm laying low today fellas. I've got two big events from a personal standpoint to focus on. First and foremost is UVA playing for a berth in the CWS at 3pm ESPN today. I had trouble sleeping with this on the board today. Next is Tommy Hanson's MLB debut in ATL. I've been waiting 2 years for that one..... and my entire life for the other.



That being said I'm playing:

CHC/CIN under 8.5




Leans I really like but will not be playing:

NYM -115
LAA/DET under 8.5 (Cabrera doubtful makes this a stronger lean)



Good luck today fellas (and ladies)......and Go Hoos!

[macadams]

Baltimore 2 units @ 2.06
LAA 2 units @ 2.1

________________________________________ _

June: -5.5 units

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Alright I'll take a shot at starting one of these....


I'm laying low today fellas. I've got two big events from a personal standpoint to focus on. First and foremost is UVA playing for a berth in the CWS at 3pm ESPN today. I had trouble sleeping with this on the board today. Next is Tommy Hanson's MLB debut in ATL. I've been waiting 2 years for that one..... and my entire life for the other.



That being said I'm playing:

CHC/CIN under 8.5




Leans I really like but will not be playing:

NYM -115
LAA/DET under 8.5 (Cabrera doubtful makes this a stronger lean)



Good luck today fellas (and ladies)......and Go Hoos!

What's the skinny on Hanson and why not a play for you?

[jellobiafra]

What's the skinny on Hanson and why not a play for you?

I don't like playing rookies in their first start on anything - totals or sides, tails or fades. You just never know what you're gonna get.

Besides, I don't need action on this one to have an interest. Hanson is the Braves #1 prospect, one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He's completely dominated the minor leagues... not to mention the Arizona Fall league (top minor leaguers) where he was the first pitcher to win MVP.

6'6" right-hander who sits in the low to mid 90's, exceptional curve ball, above average changeup, and developing a nasty slider. 5s I've mentioned him a couple times in your own thread. You don't pay very good attention some times.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

I don't like playing rookies in their first start on anything - totals or sides, tails or fades. You just never know what you're gonna get.

Besides, I don't need action on this one to have an interest. Hanson is the Braves #1 prospect, one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He's completely dominated the minor leagues... not to mention the Arizona Fall league (top minor leaguers) where he was the first pitcher to win MVP.

6'6" right-hander who sits in the low to mid 90's, exceptional curve ball, above average changeup, and developing a nasty slider. 5's I've mentioned him a couple times in your own thread. You don't pay very good attention some times.

Exactly not. I recall you talking in the past about a kid that you have been following. I just wanted to confirm it with you. I am trying to get a contrarian angle on this game. Sunday is a great day to catch the squares pounding a first place team with a rookie on the mound for the opposing team, who is the favorite. Get my contrarian drift?

[jellobiafra]

Exactly not. I recall you talking in the past about a kid that you have been following. I just wanted to confirm it with you. I am trying to get a contrarian angle on this game. Sunday is a great day to catch the squares pounding a first place team with a rookie on the mound for the opposing team, who is the favorite. Get my contrarian drift?

I'm picking up what you're putting down. I would say the Braves have a strong starting pitching advantage today, rookie or not. Parra has struggled for the Brewers and the Braves have been shutout 2 games in a row. Today would be a good day to expect a breakout with the bats, and even though I don't trust rookies in their first start .... this guy is not your typical rookie.

[showtime2000]

I'm picking up what you're putting down. I would say the Braves have a strong starting pitching advantage today, rookie or not. Parra has struggled for the Brewers and the Braves have been shutout 2 games in a row. Today would be a good day to expect a breakout with the bats, and even though I don't trust rookies in their first start .... this guy is not your typical rookie.

Jello great run you are on! Well done!

I believe Jimbo has a system play on Atlanta today. They were shoutout 2x by the same team and they would fall into a system play of his. Pretty sure he'll post Atlanta as a strong play today.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

I'm picking up what you're putting down. I would say the Braves have a strong starting pitching advantage today, rookie or not. Parra has struggled for the Brewers and the Braves have been shutout 2 games in a row. Today would be a good day to expect a breakout with the bats, and even though I don't trust rookies in their first start .... this guy is not your typical rookie.

I hear you. It is my contrarian job to first think like the squares. They won't be able to help themselves with the contrarian setup. I will watch the line as the day develops. I don't know how Bobby Cox handles first time starters. Is he going to give him three innings, then bring in someone or give him a legitimate chance to go at least five. What are your thoughts?

[Jimbo42]

Showtime... you been paying attention bro!
The system is this actually... Play on a HOME (very important) team that is facing a team that has thrown two consecutive shutouts..(the shutouts don't necessarily have to be vs. the home team that you are about to play... this just happens to be the case in this game)

Booked:
Atlanta -133
Atlanta -1.5 +155

BIG PLAY for me....

GL

[Jimbo42]

Jello, So really i just get the added benefit of having your boy Hanson... because my play is really a play AGAINST Milwaukee... Let's get the cash bro!

[Jimbo42]

Other games booked:

NY Yankees -1.5 +130

Houston -123
Houston -1.5 +165

GL

and i am looking very hard at the Oakland game...

[jellobiafra]

I hear you. It is my contrarian job to first think like the squares. They won't be able to help themselves with the contrarian setup. I will watch the line as the day develops. I don't know how Bobby Cox handles first time starters. Is he going to give him three innings, then bring in someone or give him a legitimate chance to go at least five. What are your thoughts?

He's not going to pull him after 3 or anything as long as the kid is competing. Bobby will always give his starters a chance to get a "W" if they are in the game. I would, however, expect if the Braves are in the lead after 5 he will pull the kid at the first moment that the tying run gets on base. He won't allow a rookie in his first start any chance of having a loss pinned on him in a game he was once winning as the pitcher of record. Does that make sense? It does to Bobby.

If I had to handicap this one I would say Hanson goes 6+ with 2ER, 8K's and 3BB. I think the Braves score some runs for him and he gets the win.

[cocknocker]

I like these three games

Tigers-120 HEAVY
A's-115 Slight RLM in O's favor, but the A's have all the advantages
Rangers+155 False Favorite in this game
Toronto/KC over 8 +100 The theory is 90% of f*ckers can't be right

I was gonna put down my formula, but I don't have much time today. We are going to the Coliseum and I am finally gonna go to an A's game today (despite being a season ticket holder this is MY first game of the year. The Missus is attending faithfully), complete with tailgating with the family and everything. We will be getting out of here soon, so good luck to everyone today. Get some of that Orlando money fellas!

[macadams]

Hey, Jello, it's your boy!

[peterpan19]

4 plays today that I will go heavy on early....ATL, NYM, DET and CWS...I feel today is the day to make some money guys

GL

[Dbldown11]

I like these three games

Tigers-120 HEAVY
A's-115 Slight RLM in O's favor, but the A's have all the advantages
Rangers+155 False Favorite in this game
Toronto/KC over 8 +100 The theory is 90% of f*ckers can't be right

I was gonna put down my formula, but I don't have much time today. We are going to the Coliseum and I am finally gonna go to an A's game today (despite being a season ticket holder this is MY first game of the year. The Missus is attending faithfully), complete with tailgating with the family and everything. We will be getting out of here soon, so good luck to everyone today. Get some of that Orlando money fellas!

Are you actually saying.....with a straight face.......that Padilla should be favored over Matsuzaka at Fenway Park???? And I'm not being a smart ass. Boston is favored by too much, so Texas is the play I think you're right there. But they should not be the favorite by any means

[macadams]

Added:

Boston 2 units on the -1.5 @ 2.14 I don't even think Padilla's own teammates want him to succeed, it's over for him.

2 units on the cubs @ 1.92

2 units on Chisox @ 1.91

2 units on SanFran @ 1.82

2 units on SEA @ 1.78

________________________________________ ____ _

June: -5.5

[Jimbo42]

added:

Oakland -110
Oakland -1.5 +180

San Diego +140
San Diego -1.5 +310

Kansas City +1.5 +105 (I show TOR offense as possibly having letdow day... whether that can overcome cy young..er Halladay idk)

GL

I had just one play yesterday (DET) and a sh*tload today..lol... I gotta play em when they come up...

[patsfan2727]

did anybody actually see Padilla's last start? dude would be an underdog vs. jamie moyer

[macadams]

Padilla has pitched some good borderline great games, but he just seems unstable atm, his antics in Bronx were unbearable to watch.

[macadams]

Look, texas got the bats for sure, and they stole one from new york, CK prolly playing an angle here with what is essentially a guy pitching for his MLB life in ONE game, albeit at Fenway, and at that line against Dice-K who's been erratic to say the least, why not? It's playing edgy stuff like that has earned CK the rep as steely balls guy (known from time to time even to go against DocTOR Halladay...hell...CK the only one with a winning record against him ) and I respect the shit out of him for that. It's just, I watched Padilla earlier this year were he looked plain gruesome and I just couldn't go with him today and the value to me was the runline. One guy cashes, the other not. At least CK won't show me up when Vicente one hits the Sox over eight.

[mcbaseball10]

GL with all your picks today Jello! And best of luck to your VA boys.

[suicidekings]

TB @ NYY, TB RRL -1.5 (+210)
- Garza is a better pitcher than his 4-4 record indicates, and I like him to come up big today against the Yankees, riding the hot streak Tampa is on right now.

[Dexter]

under cubs 8.5 (Autobet - 2x) - both pitchers have whips of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts.

under dbacks 7 (Autobet - 2x) - both pitchers have whips of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts.

padres +1.5/-110 (Autobet) - i will play on any underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150 and the pitcher I back must have a WHIP of 1.40 or < in his last 3 starts

bluejays -1.5/-120 - halladay has a 2.74/1.04 in his last 3 (2.90/1.08 career vs kc), while davies has a 5.71/1.50 last 3.

under mariners 7 (2x) - slowey has a 2.70/1.15 in his last 3 while bedard has a 2.00/1.00
____________________________

lakers -6.5 (3x)

[showtime2000]

Booked,

Col/St.Louis over 8.5
Det (CK)
Atl (Jimbo)


GLA

[ragiche]

Booked plays.

Det RL (3x)

Tor RL (3x)

Mil ML (3x)

Chw RL (3x)

Cin ML (3x)

Min ML (3x)

GL all for today.

[ram1502]

under cubs 8.5 (Autobet - 2x) - both pitchers have whips of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts.

under dbacks 7 (Autobet - 2x) - both pitchers have whips of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts.

padres +1.5/-110 (Autobet) - i will play on any underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150 and the pitcher I back must have a WHIP of 1.40 or < in his last 3 starts

bluejays -1.5/-120 - halladay has a 2.74/1.04 in his last 3 (2.90/1.08 career vs kc), while davies has a 5.71/1.50 last 3.

under mariners 7 (2x) - slowey has a 2.70/1.15 in his last 3 while bedard has a 2.00/1.00
____________________________

lakers -6.5 (3x)

The dog runline autobet is kind of a for me Dex. It seems, with that low total, you have to be betting against an ace. Wasn't this one of the ones that wasn't doing so well Dex? That being said, I love systems and I hope they all work out for you.

As an aside, I'm on the Magic tonight. I don't think there is any way van Gundy and Howard & Co. will get blown out 2 games in a row. I'm on the Magic and the Over. GL Dex

[hockeytown71]

Det -120 Porcello is still knew to these guys (haven't really seen him yet)
Tex +157 (CK)
Tex RRL +200 (why not)
Cubs/Reds Under 4.5 in 1st 5 innings
SF/Fl Under 4 in the 1st 5 innings (like the pitching)
Minny/Seattle Under 4 in 1st 5 innings (Bedard/Slowey, I'll bite)

[jellobiafra]

under cubs 8.5 (Autobet - 2x) - both pitchers have whips of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts.

under dbacks 7 (Autobet - 2x) - both pitchers have whips of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts.

padres +1.5/-110 (Autobet) - i will play on any underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150 and the pitcher I back must have a WHIP of 1.40 or < in his last 3 starts

bluejays -1.5/-120 - halladay has a 2.74/1.04 in his last 3 (2.90/1.08 career vs kc), while davies has a 5.71/1.50 last 3.

under mariners 7 (2x) - slowey has a 2.70/1.15 in his last 3 while bedard has a 2.00/1.00
____________________________

lakers -6.5 (3x)

LOL at the decreasing font size. Is that something subliminal you are working on?

[peterpan19]

lets hope DET can score some runs here too in the first...

[JamesBrown]

lets hope DET can score some runs here too in the first...

I'll take two...took the RL so now its time to grind back.

[jellobiafra]

Glad I layed off that under. Jeez. 5 in the 1st.

[ram1502]

With you on the Cubs Under jello. Also took a chance on the Braves and Hanson. Took Braves U and Astros U based solely on RLM. Both had more than 60% on the over and both lines dropped. I like my chances.

[Dexter]

The dog runline autobet is kind of a for me Dex. It seems, with that low total, you have to be betting against an ace. Wasn't this one of the ones that wasn't doing so well Dex? That being said, I love systems and I hope they all work out for you.

As an aside, I'm on the Magic tonight. I don't think there is any way van Gundy and Howard & Co. will get blown out 2 games in a row. I'm on the Magic and the Over. GL Dex

my mindset is that the game will be very tight (with a total of 7.5 or <) so +1.5 runs becomes very valuable compared to a total that was say 9/10 etc..

before i added the whip filter this one was 2-5, so you may be right.

[Dexter]

LOL at the decreasing font size. Is that something subliminal you are working on?

lol....i cut and pasted the autobet definition on the padres from my word document with all of my notes. i couldnt figure out how to fix it here...