MLB Leans ~ Sunday 6/07

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  • jellobiafra
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-08-09
    • 6291

    #1
    MLB Leans ~ Sunday 6/07
    Alright I'll take a shot at starting one of these....


    I'm laying low today fellas. I've got two big events from a personal standpoint to focus on. First and foremost is UVA playing for a berth in the CWS at 3pm ESPN today. I had trouble sleeping with this on the board today. Next is Tommy Hanson's MLB debut in ATL. I've been waiting 2 years for that one..... and my entire life for the other.



    That being said I'm playing:

    CHC/CIN under 8.5




    Leans I really like but will not be playing:

    NYM -115
    LAA/DET under 8.5 (Cabrera doubtful makes this a stronger lean)



    Good luck today fellas (and ladies)......and Go Hoos!
  • macadams
    SBR High Roller
    • 04-05-09
    • 242

    #2
    Baltimore 2 units @ 2.06
    LAA 2 units @ 2.1

    ________________________________________ _

    June: -5.5 units
    Comment
    • Pair of 5s Sir
      SBR MVP
      • 04-20-08
      • 4960

      #3
      Originally posted by jellobiafra
      Alright I'll take a shot at starting one of these....


      I'm laying low today fellas. I've got two big events from a personal standpoint to focus on. First and foremost is UVA playing for a berth in the CWS at 3pm ESPN today. I had trouble sleeping with this on the board today. Next is Tommy Hanson's MLB debut in ATL. I've been waiting 2 years for that one..... and my entire life for the other.



      That being said I'm playing:

      CHC/CIN under 8.5




      Leans I really like but will not be playing:

      NYM -115
      LAA/DET under 8.5 (Cabrera doubtful makes this a stronger lean)



      Good luck today fellas (and ladies)......and Go Hoos!
      What's the skinny on Hanson and why not a play for you?
      Comment
      • jellobiafra
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 03-08-09
        • 6291

        #4
        Originally posted by Pair of 5s Sir
        What's the skinny on Hanson and why not a play for you?

        I don't like playing rookies in their first start on anything - totals or sides, tails or fades. You just never know what you're gonna get.

        Besides, I don't need action on this one to have an interest. Hanson is the Braves #1 prospect, one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He's completely dominated the minor leagues... not to mention the Arizona Fall league (top minor leaguers) where he was the first pitcher to win MVP.

        6'6" right-hander who sits in the low to mid 90's, exceptional curve ball, above average changeup, and developing a nasty slider. 5s I've mentioned him a couple times in your own thread. You don't pay very good attention some times.
        Comment
        • Pair of 5s Sir
          SBR MVP
          • 04-20-08
          • 4960

          #5
          Originally posted by jellobiafra
          I don't like playing rookies in their first start on anything - totals or sides, tails or fades. You just never know what you're gonna get.

          Besides, I don't need action on this one to have an interest. Hanson is the Braves #1 prospect, one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He's completely dominated the minor leagues... not to mention the Arizona Fall league (top minor leaguers) where he was the first pitcher to win MVP.

          6'6" right-hander who sits in the low to mid 90's, exceptional curve ball, above average changeup, and developing a nasty slider. 5's I've mentioned him a couple times in your own thread. You don't pay very good attention some times.
          Exactly not. I recall you talking in the past about a kid that you have been following. I just wanted to confirm it with you. I am trying to get a contrarian angle on this game. Sunday is a great day to catch the squares pounding a first place team with a rookie on the mound for the opposing team, who is the favorite. Get my contrarian drift?
          Comment
          • jellobiafra
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 03-08-09
            • 6291

            #6
            Originally posted by Pair of 5s Sir
            Exactly not. I recall you talking in the past about a kid that you have been following. I just wanted to confirm it with you. I am trying to get a contrarian angle on this game. Sunday is a great day to catch the squares pounding a first place team with a rookie on the mound for the opposing team, who is the favorite. Get my contrarian drift?
            I'm picking up what you're putting down. I would say the Braves have a strong starting pitching advantage today, rookie or not. Parra has struggled for the Brewers and the Braves have been shutout 2 games in a row. Today would be a good day to expect a breakout with the bats, and even though I don't trust rookies in their first start .... this guy is not your typical rookie.
            Comment
            • showtime2000
              SBR MVP
              • 11-09-08
              • 1054

              #7
              Originally posted by jellobiafra
              I'm picking up what you're putting down. I would say the Braves have a strong starting pitching advantage today, rookie or not. Parra has struggled for the Brewers and the Braves have been shutout 2 games in a row. Today would be a good day to expect a breakout with the bats, and even though I don't trust rookies in their first start .... this guy is not your typical rookie.

              Jello great run you are on! Well done!

              I believe Jimbo has a system play on Atlanta today. They were shoutout 2x by the same team and they would fall into a system play of his. Pretty sure he'll post Atlanta as a strong play today.
              Comment
              • Pair of 5s Sir
                SBR MVP
                • 04-20-08
                • 4960

                #8
                Originally posted by jellobiafra
                I'm picking up what you're putting down. I would say the Braves have a strong starting pitching advantage today, rookie or not. Parra has struggled for the Brewers and the Braves have been shutout 2 games in a row. Today would be a good day to expect a breakout with the bats, and even though I don't trust rookies in their first start .... this guy is not your typical rookie.
                I hear you. It is my contrarian job to first think like the squares. They won't be able to help themselves with the contrarian setup. I will watch the line as the day develops. I don't know how Bobby Cox handles first time starters. Is he going to give him three innings, then bring in someone or give him a legitimate chance to go at least five. What are your thoughts?
                Comment
                • Jimbo42
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-04-09
                  • 2076

                  #9
                  Showtime... you been paying attention bro!
                  The system is this actually... Play on a HOME (very important) team that is facing a team that has thrown two consecutive shutouts..(the shutouts don't necessarily have to be vs. the home team that you are about to play... this just happens to be the case in this game)

                  Booked:
                  Atlanta -133
                  Atlanta -1.5 +155

                  BIG PLAY for me....

                  GL
                  Comment
                  • Jimbo42
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-04-09
                    • 2076

                    #10
                    Jello, So really i just get the added benefit of having your boy Hanson... because my play is really a play AGAINST Milwaukee... Let's get the cash bro!
                    Comment
                    • Jimbo42
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-04-09
                      • 2076

                      #11
                      Other games booked:

                      NY Yankees -1.5 +130

                      Houston -123
                      Houston -1.5 +165

                      GL

                      and i am looking very hard at the Oakland game...
                      Comment
                      • jellobiafra
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 03-08-09
                        • 6291

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Pair of 5s Sir
                        I hear you. It is my contrarian job to first think like the squares. They won't be able to help themselves with the contrarian setup. I will watch the line as the day develops. I don't know how Bobby Cox handles first time starters. Is he going to give him three innings, then bring in someone or give him a legitimate chance to go at least five. What are your thoughts?
                        He's not going to pull him after 3 or anything as long as the kid is competing. Bobby will always give his starters a chance to get a "W" if they are in the game. I would, however, expect if the Braves are in the lead after 5 he will pull the kid at the first moment that the tying run gets on base. He won't allow a rookie in his first start any chance of having a loss pinned on him in a game he was once winning as the pitcher of record. Does that make sense? It does to Bobby.

                        If I had to handicap this one I would say Hanson goes 6+ with 2ER, 8K's and 3BB. I think the Braves score some runs for him and he gets the win.
                        Comment
                        • cocknocker
                          Restricted User
                          • 11-06-08
                          • 8001

                          #13
                          I like these three games

                          Tigers-120 HEAVY
                          A's-115 Slight RLM in O's favor, but the A's have all the advantages
                          Rangers+155 False Favorite in this game
                          Toronto/KC over 8 +100 The theory is 90% of f*ckers can't be right

                          I was gonna put down my formula, but I don't have much time today. We are going to the Coliseum and I am finally gonna go to an A's game today (despite being a season ticket holder this is MY first game of the year. The Missus is attending faithfully), complete with tailgating with the family and everything. We will be getting out of here soon, so good luck to everyone today. Get some of that Orlando money fellas!
                          Comment
                          • macadams
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 04-05-09
                            • 242

                            #14
                            Hey, Jello, it's your boy!
                            Comment
                            • peterpan19
                              Restricted User
                              • 11-02-08
                              • 3377

                              #15
                              4 plays today that I will go heavy on early....ATL, NYM, DET and CWS...I feel today is the day to make some money guys

                              GL
                              Comment
                              • Dbldown11
                                SBR MVP
                                • 08-17-06
                                • 3605

                                #16
                                Originally posted by cocknocker
                                I like these three games

                                Tigers-120 HEAVY
                                A's-115 Slight RLM in O's favor, but the A's have all the advantages
                                Rangers+155 False Favorite in this game
                                Toronto/KC over 8 +100 The theory is 90% of f*ckers can't be right

                                I was gonna put down my formula, but I don't have much time today. We are going to the Coliseum and I am finally gonna go to an A's game today (despite being a season ticket holder this is MY first game of the year. The Missus is attending faithfully), complete with tailgating with the family and everything. We will be getting out of here soon, so good luck to everyone today. Get some of that Orlando money fellas!
                                Are you actually saying.....with a straight face.......that Padilla should be favored over Matsuzaka at Fenway Park???? And I'm not being a smart ass. Boston is favored by too much, so Texas is the play I think you're right there. But they should not be the favorite by any means
                                Comment
                                • macadams
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 04-05-09
                                  • 242

                                  #17
                                  Added:

                                  Boston 2 units on the -1.5 @ 2.14 I don't even think Padilla's own teammates want him to succeed, it's over for him.

                                  2 units on the cubs @ 1.92

                                  2 units on Chisox @ 1.91

                                  2 units on SanFran @ 1.82

                                  2 units on SEA @ 1.78

                                  ________________________________________ ____ _

                                  June: -5.5
                                  Comment
                                  • Jimbo42
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-04-09
                                    • 2076

                                    #18
                                    added:

                                    Oakland -110
                                    Oakland -1.5 +180

                                    San Diego +140
                                    San Diego -1.5 +310

                                    Kansas City +1.5 +105 (I show TOR offense as possibly having letdow day... whether that can overcome cy young..er Halladay idk)

                                    GL

                                    I had just one play yesterday (DET) and a sh*tload today..lol... I gotta play em when they come up...
                                    Comment
                                    • patsfan2727
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 10-28-07
                                      • 579

                                      #19
                                      did anybody actually see Padilla's last start? dude would be an underdog vs. jamie moyer
                                      Comment
                                      • macadams
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 04-05-09
                                        • 242

                                        #20
                                        Padilla has pitched some good borderline great games, but he just seems unstable atm, his antics in Bronx were unbearable to watch.
                                        Comment
                                        • macadams
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 04-05-09
                                          • 242

                                          #21
                                          Look, texas got the bats for sure, and they stole one from new york, CK prolly playing an angle here with what is essentially a guy pitching for his MLB life in ONE game, albeit at Fenway, and at that line against Dice-K who's been erratic to say the least, why not? It's playing edgy stuff like that has earned CK the rep as steely balls guy (known from time to time even to go against DocTOR Halladay...hell...CK the only one with a winning record against him ) and I respect the shit out of him for that. It's just, I watched Padilla earlier this year were he looked plain gruesome and I just couldn't go with him today and the value to me was the runline. One guy cashes, the other not. At least CK won't show me up when Vicente one hits the Sox over eight.
                                          Comment
                                          • mcbaseball10
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-11-09
                                            • 2866

                                            #22
                                            GL with all your picks today Jello! And best of luck to your VA boys.
                                            Comment
                                            • suicidekings
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 03-23-09
                                              • 9962

                                              #23
                                              TB @ NYY, TB RRL -1.5 (+210)
                                              - Garza is a better pitcher than his 4-4 record indicates, and I like him to come up big today against the Yankees, riding the hot streak Tampa is on right now.
                                              Comment
                                              • Dexter
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 12-24-08
                                                • 25829

                                                #24
                                                under cubs 8.5 (Autobet - 2x) - both pitchers have whips of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts.

                                                under dbacks 7 (Autobet - 2x) - both pitchers have whips of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts.

                                                padres +1.5/-110 (Autobet) - i will play on any underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150 and the pitcher I back must have a WHIP of 1.40 or < in his last 3 starts

                                                bluejays -1.5/-120 - halladay has a 2.74/1.04 in his last 3 (2.90/1.08 career vs kc), while davies has a 5.71/1.50 last 3.

                                                under mariners 7 (2x) - slowey has a 2.70/1.15 in his last 3 while bedard has a 2.00/1.00
                                                ____________________________

                                                lakers -6.5 (3x)




                                                Comment
                                                • showtime2000
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-09-08
                                                  • 1054

                                                  #25
                                                  Booked,

                                                  Col/St.Louis over 8.5
                                                  Det (CK)
                                                  Atl (Jimbo)


                                                  GLA
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ragiche
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-09-08
                                                    • 3110

                                                    #26
                                                    Booked plays.

                                                    Det RL (3x)

                                                    Tor RL (3x)

                                                    Mil ML (3x)

                                                    Chw RL (3x)

                                                    Cin ML (3x)

                                                    Min ML (3x)

                                                    GL all for today.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ram1502
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 12-26-08
                                                      • 822

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Dexter
                                                      under cubs 8.5 (Autobet - 2x) - both pitchers have whips of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts.

                                                      under dbacks 7 (Autobet - 2x) - both pitchers have whips of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts.

                                                      padres +1.5/-110 (Autobet) - i will play on any underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150 and the pitcher I back must have a WHIP of 1.40 or < in his last 3 starts

                                                      bluejays -1.5/-120 - halladay has a 2.74/1.04 in his last 3 (2.90/1.08 career vs kc), while davies has a 5.71/1.50 last 3.

                                                      under mariners 7 (2x) - slowey has a 2.70/1.15 in his last 3 while bedard has a 2.00/1.00
                                                      ____________________________

                                                      lakers -6.5 (3x)




                                                      The dog runline autobet is kind of a for me Dex. It seems, with that low total, you have to be betting against an ace. Wasn't this one of the ones that wasn't doing so well Dex? That being said, I love systems and I hope they all work out for you.

                                                      As an aside, I'm on the Magic tonight. I don't think there is any way van Gundy and Howard & Co. will get blown out 2 games in a row. I'm on the Magic and the Over. GL Dex
                                                      Comment
                                                      • hockeytown71
                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                        • 02-21-09
                                                        • 95

                                                        #28
                                                        Det -120 Porcello is still knew to these guys (haven't really seen him yet)
                                                        Tex +157 (CK)
                                                        Tex RRL +200 (why not)
                                                        Cubs/Reds Under 4.5 in 1st 5 innings
                                                        SF/Fl Under 4 in the 1st 5 innings (like the pitching)
                                                        Minny/Seattle Under 4 in 1st 5 innings (Bedard/Slowey, I'll bite)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • jellobiafra
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 03-08-09
                                                          • 6291

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Dexter
                                                          under cubs 8.5 (Autobet - 2x) - both pitchers have whips of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts.

                                                          under dbacks 7 (Autobet - 2x) - both pitchers have whips of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts.

                                                          padres +1.5/-110 (Autobet) - i will play on any underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150 and the pitcher I back must have a WHIP of 1.40 or < in his last 3 starts

                                                          bluejays -1.5/-120 - halladay has a 2.74/1.04 in his last 3 (2.90/1.08 career vs kc), while davies has a 5.71/1.50 last 3.

                                                          under mariners 7 (2x) - slowey has a 2.70/1.15 in his last 3 while bedard has a 2.00/1.00
                                                          ____________________________

                                                          lakers -6.5 (3x)




                                                          LOL at the decreasing font size. Is that something subliminal you are working on?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • peterpan19
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 11-02-08
                                                            • 3377

                                                            #30
                                                            lets hope DET can score some runs here too in the first...
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JamesBrown
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 04-07-08
                                                              • 3860

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by peterpan19
                                                              lets hope DET can score some runs here too in the first...
                                                              I'll take two...took the RL so now its time to grind back.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • jellobiafra
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 03-08-09
                                                                • 6291

                                                                #32
                                                                Glad I layed off that under. Jeez. 5 in the 1st.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ram1502
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 12-26-08
                                                                  • 822

                                                                  #33
                                                                  With you on the Cubs Under jello. Also took a chance on the Braves and Hanson. Took Braves U and Astros U based solely on RLM. Both had more than 60% on the over and both lines dropped. I like my chances.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Dexter
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 12-24-08
                                                                    • 25829

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by ram1502
                                                                    The dog runline autobet is kind of a for me Dex. It seems, with that low total, you have to be betting against an ace. Wasn't this one of the ones that wasn't doing so well Dex? That being said, I love systems and I hope they all work out for you.

                                                                    As an aside, I'm on the Magic tonight. I don't think there is any way van Gundy and Howard & Co. will get blown out 2 games in a row. I'm on the Magic and the Over. GL Dex
                                                                    my mindset is that the game will be very tight (with a total of 7.5 or <) so +1.5 runs becomes very valuable compared to a total that was say 9/10 etc..

                                                                    before i added the whip filter this one was 2-5, so you may be right.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Dexter
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 12-24-08
                                                                      • 25829

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by jellobiafra
                                                                      LOL at the decreasing font size. Is that something subliminal you are working on?
                                                                      lol....i cut and pasted the autobet definition on the padres from my word document with all of my notes. i couldnt figure out how to fix it here...
                                                                      Comment
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