MLB Leans~Sunday 5/31

[Panekkkk]

Atl/Ari under 9.5 ... 9.5 just too high for these teams. There have been some good writeups on other threads today touting Atl's starter as being better than he appears. With two subpar outings he may be on the verge of a breakout start.

Tex team total over 3.5 ... 3.5? Are you kidding me. So Braden shut 'em down for 5 innings last outing. Texas has pounded Oakland for an average of 8 runs over the last 3 outings, I see no reason that the trend does not continue. Even with a diluted lineup Texas does not deserve a 3.5.

So I bet Tex team total over 3.5 at pinny. Go back an hour later and check, and the team total is now at 5 and the bet is erased.

Guess it was too good to be true...

UPDATE:

Dear Sir,

As stated in our Web-Site rules, Pinnacle Sports reserves the right to cancel any wager made on an obviously "bad" line.

For this reason we have cancelled your baseball wager(s) MLB Team Total - Texas Rangers Over 3.5 on May 31st 2009.

You may go to your account and replay the event at the correct price.

We apologize for the inconvenience.

[shantystar]

Solid info. Thanks Jello!

nice info!

[jellobiafra]

Just to reiterate on that UVA play, you're going to have about an hour window between games. The 1st one should end around 10pm EST and that's when the line will be released. I just called BetJam to confirm they will have it as soon as the game ends. If there are any sharps betting heavy on college baseball (which I doubt) and that line comes out close to a pick I expect UVA to get hammered at the window. I'm going to treat it like a 2 game chase. If they lose tonight they should be in an equally good situation tomorrow - pitching depth is one of their biggest strengths.

[Panekkkk]

Just to reiterate on that UVA play, you're going to have about an hour window between games. The 1st one should end around 10pm EST and that's when the line will be released. I just called BetJam to confirm they will have it as soon as the game ends. If there are any sharps betting heavy on college baseball (which I doubt) and that line comes out close to a pick I expect UVA to get hammered at the window. I'm going to treat it like a 2 game chase. If they lose tonight they should be in an equally good situation tomorrow - pitching depth is one of their biggest strengths.

So hit it as soon as it comes out you're saying?

Anyone else with college knowledge (yeah I'm a poet) wanna comment?

[macadams]

Jello, man...

that post was so good I'm sure I must'a gained some weight reading it! You sir, have restored my faith in humanity and you came dangerously close to restoring my faith in the internet

[macadams]

Internet troubles kept me from taking part in the early goings on, just couldn't get no internet up in this bit*h. I wanted to look into the DET game, and was feeling strong after a sweet 3-0 yesterday. Guess I need to concentrate on the nightcap.

I wanna just say real quick, I agree that it's bad form coming on someone else's thread with score-settling and negativity. Even as CK explained a short-term hiatus with familial priorities, some took it upon them damn selves to obfuscate and Durant they chests primate style. And s t i l l t h e m a n c o m e s b a c k ! Still free of charge, still with killer insight that inspires others to try and cap the best they can and contribute for all of us.

[macadams]

Like the ROX but haven't had enough time to look at it no play 'till the nightgame for me

[macadams]

For the record, with reference to my reference to Exlamation Kevin (Kevin Durant), I don't have a problem with him pounding his chest. As a matter of fact, I can't think of anything about that guy I could conceiveably find fault with.

[cocknocker]

Seattle's line is way off for a team that has such big advantages, regardless of this being a sweep situation.

Seattle has a better slugging percentage by .182 higher than the Angels (.481 to .299) over their last 3 games. Olson obviously has a better ERA (3.66) than Santana (7.82), who is trying to get himself back into form. Translated, Santana is not worthy of such a line against a good hitting team. Wrong spot for the rehab experiment. All systems point to a Mariners sweep. Never mind the fact that the Mariners haven't swept the Angels on the road in what seems like forever. I see a false favorite in this game. There's too many crumbs being left on the table.

Seattle+172

[baa269]

cin down by 4

[shoebox]

Well after not hitting the Rockies last week, and now the ****king reds my big plays have been total shit. I keep hitting my small bets and choking when I cap a big game

fukken pathetic......

braves +132 2 units
cubs RL +145 2 units
red birds RL +100 2 units

[jellobiafra]

NYY/CLE u10.5




If I were playing other things today I also like:

STL/SFG o7.5
MIL RL +100

NYY/CLE under just cashed. Four in a row for me on these unders....

[cocknocker]

shoe, try the over in the Giants/Cards game. Not too sure aout the other ones. The Cubs do have the better bats right now, but the line is inflated, and the Dodgers should actually be favored -148 in this game. The Braves have good reverse going for them, but Arizona should be a bigger favorite in this matchup, and they are undervalued. Scherzer is the real deal. And Arizona is pounding out a .467 slugging% over their last 3 games compared to the Braves .342, which is not shabby at all. I think the Braves have a good chance though. Just have to hope that the youngster is on top of hisgame early.

[Jimbo42]

Cincy strands men on first and third one out.... also stranded bases loaded earlier... got seven hits.... they have had their chances...

[Jimbo42]

NYY/CLE under just cashed. Four in a row for me on these unders....

Jello is nice on those unders! and that college ball too!!

[macadams]

Oh, that Santana.

[peterpan19]

lets hope Texas can score some runs soon...Millwood has another solid outing and no help...

ok just took LAA +3.5 +230 for $100 as a nice fun bet to end the day...or maybe not...still thinking about that Cubs game...

[shoebox]

shoe, try the over in the Giants/Cards game. Not too sure aout the other ones. The Cubs do have the better bats right now, but the line is inflated, and the Dodgers should actually be favored -148 in this game. The Braves have good reverse going for them, but Arizona should be a bigger favorite in this matchup, and they are undervalued. Scherzer is the real deal. And Arizona is pounding out a .467 slugging% over their last 3 games compared to the Braves .342, which is not shabby at all. I think the Braves have a good chance though. Just have to hope that the youngster is on top of hisgame early.

Just saw this, game just started Seattle looking good for you...

[shoebox]

You best be on the phone with the pc boys ck, dont be holding out!

[jellobiafra]

I don't like the fact that these two have played to the under 3 straight times this weekend. And I was really having a battle with myself over whether to just sit tight at 2-0 for the day (had Sharapova -115) and wait for that UVA line to come out around 10pm or to look again for something on this game. But every indicator I've been using to cap my unders lately are present here as well. Knowing I might be pressing my luck on the unders (and despite the fact that they've played to the under those 3 straight games against each other), the number here was too high for me to pass on. I went ahead and booked:


LAD/CHC u9.5 -125


BOL everyone

[cocknocker]

You best be on the phone with the pc boys ck, dont be holding out!

Never that. But the basketball season is not over yet. They don't do baseball picks until the basketball season is all the way over. In the mean and between they are playing my other thing exclusively

[Panekkkk]

How about a Texas comeback??? It would make my day

[showtime2000]

Puck play tonight,

Pittsburgh +135 (let's try this again tonight. A couple of fortunate bounces aided in Detroit's win last night, Pit did play well but couldn't capitalize on them. Line looks a bit off for this matchup aswell, Detroit opened at -150 for yesterday's game and today its at -140.)

GLA

[showtime2000]

Jimbo, you'll get'em tomorrow! Shake this one off.

[Vreston]

Never that. But the basketball season is not over yet. They don't do baseball picks until the basketball season is all the way over. In the mean and between they are playing my other thing exclusively

Man CK I wish you and and the PCs would help the brothers out over here! We need it for sure. I almost wish baseball season hadn't started bcs it's eaten away at all my winnings. One of those cool PC plays would be just right, right about now.

[macadams]

Cubs -1.5 and the UNDER booked.

Marshall has really good numbers in these nightgames, @ home he's been extremely solid. LAD shut out for the first game of the season last night, hasn't the sailing been almost too smooth for LA sans Manny? Gotta run into some trouble some time along the way, they're on the road and the CUBS netted 7 last night and are starting to find a little sumt'n sumt'n. They have a lot to play for, too, they gotta stay in the race until Aramis returns. Chitown for all, well some, o'th marbles.

The -1.5 pays 2.55 to 1 and the under [1.66]is a semi-hedge with a fair chance of hitting along with the runline.

Normally, I play the o/u picks at lower stakes, but on this one there is a unit on each proposition.

[Kav]

man now i need a miracle, friggin got texas on the runline!

[DeeWizzle]

U need a 3 run shot Kav.

[RoagBettor]

mac, what book do you use? Bookmaker has the Cubs RL at +145

[ram1502]

Puck play tonight,

Pittsburgh +135 (let's try this again tonight. A couple of fortunate bounces aided in Detroit's win last night, Pit did play well but couldn't capitalize on them. Line looks a bit off for this matchup aswell, Detroit opened at -150 for yesterday's game and today its at -140.)

GLA

Huge RLM for the Wings tonight Show. With the public split 51/49 in favor of the Penguins, the line has gone from -135 to -155. Kinda makes you wonder huh? Good luck nonetheless, but I'm on the Wings ML, PL, and the over for the game. GL show.

[showtime2000]

Should be a good game, the over looks good. GL to you aswell ram.

[cocknocker]

Aardsma lets two guys on in the bottom of the 9th. Let's see how this turns out. Oh how I hate reliever heartburn...

[Jimbo42]

Jimbo, you'll get'em tomorrow! Shake this one off.

Thank you sir!... No worries... I'm not trippin... i win with that system quite often and with it always being +140 or higher I am way up on it already....I take the losing with a steady hand... Its a part of the game right bro!
Now get it tonight with them Penguins!

[cocknocker]

And Vladimir Guerrero is up with two outs..... Game is on the line. 4th and 8....

[macadams]

Roag,

+145 = 2.45 (multiplier), right? So that's about the same as I got. Has dropped to 2.45 now. Eh, guess I should feel good about that