Mr. Crumbs Leans for Monday 5/18/09

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Mr. Crumbs Leans for Monday 5/18/09
    I have been following the A's for a couple of years, and this particular year they are horrid to be sure. But despite that, this is actually a winnable game for them. I am gonna back the kid Gallagher and see if he can cash the ticket. The A's bats were in order yesterday against the Tigers, but they just were overmatched in that game. Niemann hasn't done enough on the big league level to warrant a -150 price tag. The A's are coming into town off of an embarrassing sweep

    A's+120 or more

    Lackey's gonna return in this game. It will not be a free chicken dinner. Washburn with even money at home? Give me the M's and the home crowd edge in a slugfest won by the M's 7-5.

    Mariners-105
    Mariners/Angels over 8.5

    Now I know for a cat that Andy Pettitte is not worth the price tag he got for this game. I have to take the Twinkies in this matchup and hope that they bust out the whoppin' sticks for this game against the wiley veteran with a 80 somethin' fastball

    Twinkies+145 or more


    Florida/Arizona under 8 -125 Haren's pitching, Nolasco is due a correction



    The public is lining up for free breakfast at the shelter this morning, so I will fade them and hope to eat top sirloin and garic rice with my eggs. No doubt about being contrarian on this one, as the public is backing the over to the tune of 84%. I will jump on the side of the 16% which of course is the sharp money. I would not take the 1st half under however.. I think that there will be 8 runs in this game and Toronto looses 5-3 on a saftey when Richmond accidently steps over the end-zone line while scrambling for his life.

    Pale Hose/Blue Birds under 9.5 +100 Crumbs Play-O-The-Day
    Pale Hose+150 Because it looks on paper like they have no chance


    Will also do a small + money parlay with

    Pale Hose+150/Pale Hose and Blue Birds under 9.5 +100
  • khaliagent
    SBR MVP
    • 01-13-08
    • 2117

    #2
    CK

    I would stay away from the twins pick ck.
    Perkins has a 5.00era career against the yanks and petite averages 1.2 strikeouts per game vs. The twinkies and they only hit .263 off him lifetime.
    Perkins gets smacked by yanks (.364 ba)

    if anything i would touch the -1.5 for yanks and i may depending on the probabilty.

    Also i would stay away from the a's and gallagher.
    - the a's have never seen niemann and they are not the hitting lineup that performs well in that situation.
    Comment
    • khaliagent
      SBR MVP
      • 01-13-08
      • 2117

      #3
      Originally posted by cocknocker
      . Niemann hasn't done enough on the big league level to warrant a -150 price tag.
      where did you see -150?
      I got the line from pinnacle at -136
      Comment
      • xxdjstriderxx
        SBR MVP
        • 11-25-08
        • 4740

        #4
        pale hoseeeeee in the am. good writeups ck, thanks

        im feelin that As pick
        Comment
        • Jimbo42
          SBR MVP
          • 01-04-09
          • 2076

          #5
          What up!

          Booked:
          St. Louis -125
          St. Louis -1.5 +160

          Also played small:
          White Sox +145

          GL
          Comment
          • RoagBettor
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 01-20-09
            • 8355

            #6
            Hard to go against Milwaukee and Toronto today.

            Jimbo, why do you like St. Louis RL? I know you wouldn't bet it if you didn't think it had a chance, but the Brewers bats are scorching and the Cards bats are ice cold.
            Comment
            • chucksmith
              SBR Sharp
              • 11-06-08
              • 412

              #7
              ARIZONA -134

              Just saw where ARI has pushed Garland back and will throw Haren today vs Nolasco. Nolasco has been awful after a couple of strong starts at the beginning of the year. Haren has been a hard luck pitcher getting no run support and I have been looking for a spot to play him all year. The Snakes bats will do enough to continue the 1 game streak they started in Atlanta. I am going to lay more vig than I prefer to (-134) but this is a gut play for me and I would be kicking myself all day if I didnt grab it.

              I think I will end up beating the closing #, as it has moved up from -130.
              Comment
              • cocknocker
                Restricted User
                • 11-06-08
                • 8001

                #8
                Bad movement with the Cards today, Jimbo which of course means that they will cover, lol!

                I agree that the Pale Hose are the call in the AM. I will make that play and also follow it up with the RRL +210. It's high time that the Pales get a road win. They have been stinking up the joint despite oodles of talent on this team.

                The line for Tampa Bay started at -150 at Pinnacle and despite the fact that 85% of bettor are on their side, the line went from an opening of -150 to as low as -136. Te movement is in my favor by playing the A's who are controlling the money with a meager 15% on them.

                Andy Pettitte is NOT a -150 or more pitcher even if he has good numbers against the Twins. The Yanks have had three straight walk off wins against the Twins this series. That tells me that they are leading in all of the games until the final inning. I believe the Twins get far enough ahead in this game to not have that happen again. Gotta play a team that has lost three in a row to the same team. It's the law of averages. New York will burn your money if you play them when they are expected to win. Most over-valued team in MLB
                Comment
                • cocknocker
                  Restricted User
                  • 11-06-08
                  • 8001

                  #9
                  The M's however, have not returned to the board since news of Lackey getting the start surfaced. Whatever the line is I am taking the M's in this game simply because I know that Lackey will be over-valued despite this being for all intents and purposes his first start off the farm (he got dq'd in his actual first game after only 2 pitches). Washburn can get it donein this game, but beware folks. The Angels are the sleeping giant in the west, and they are starting to get healthy now.
                  Comment
                  • peterpan19
                    Restricted User
                    • 11-02-08
                    • 3377

                    #10
                    ck
                    dont you think that the over 9.5 in the TOR-CSW game looks good too..both pitchers struggled as of late...Tor bats are hot and the White Sox bats ...well...they will get hot today here and win it in a slugfest...

                    early pick for me CSW and Over 9.5

                    GL
                    Comment
                    • chucksmith
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 11-06-08
                      • 412

                      #11
                      Originally posted by cocknocker
                      The M's however, have not returned to the board since news of Lackey getting the start surfaced. Whatever the line is I am taking the M's in this game simply because I know that Lackey will be over-valued despite this being for all intents and purposes his first start off the farm (he got dq'd in his actual first game after only 2 pitches). Washburn can get it donein this game, but beware folks. The Angels are the sleeping giant in the west, and they are starting to get healthy now.


                      Very much agree here. The public is going to fall in love with Texas after their recent hot streak and I am going to be right there to fade away. There is no way their SP holds up and their pen will begin to wear down now that everyone has been moved up a slot after their closer Francisco went on the DL.

                      With Santana, Lackey, Guererro all on the way back, the Angels will have the lead back in the AL West by the All Star break. Circle the next Tex/LAA series, I will go ahead and predict LA returns the favor with a sweep.
                      Comment
                      • t-bone
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-18-08
                        • 3732

                        #12
                        The A's are a sharp play, nice find CK
                        Comment
                        • showtime2000
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-09-08
                          • 1054

                          #13
                          Washington will play their 4th game in 3 days and sending a pitcher to the mound with 1 MLB game. If Detwiller gets into trouble early the Washington pen is very tired having to come in relief in all 4 games against Philadelphia. Washington has never faced Ohlendorf. I think advantage goes to Pittsburgh.
                          Comment
                          • cocknocker
                            Restricted User
                            • 11-06-08
                            • 8001

                            #14
                            As game time is approaching, I am going to play the Pale Hose/Blue Birds under 9.5. Richmond is alright, but the Pale Hose have the lowest run production per game in the AL. So maybe the Blue Birds blow them out and they only score 1-2 runs.

                            The Pale Hose have been alternating over/under for 5 games straight following a 4 game under streak with one sandwiched in between. It's the bet that was taken the least for this game, so with it being an early game I think that it is a good way to sart things off! fade the public. 84% is awhole lot of early money for the books to pick up off the public...


                            Pale Hose/Blue Birds under 9.5 +100 Crumbs Play-O-The-Day

                            Comment
                            • IfDntmk$itDntmkc
                              SBR Rookie
                              • 04-17-09
                              • 31

                              #15
                              I am rolling with you CK. Last week we started off good on Monday. Lets do it again. By the way " You have pickles in your ears Chuck" if you think the Red Shoed Rangers will fade by the All Star break.

                              As long as the AL MVP, "yes i said it," Ian Kinsler stays healthy and in the lineup the Rangers will be battling it out with the Angels who struggle to score runs and have gapping holes in the bullpen. Especially with no K-Rod.

                              I am loving my + 1125 odds for the Rangers to win the AL West.

                              Keep in mind the Rangers have gone to the playoffs 3 times in their history, what was the primary color in their uniforms? Answer "RED"!!!!!

                              2009- Primary Color RED.

                              Go Red Shoed Rangers!!!!
                              Comment
                              • cocknocker
                                Restricted User
                                • 11-06-08
                                • 8001

                                #16
                                Originally posted by peterpan19
                                ck
                                dont you think that the over 9.5 in the TOR-CSW game looks good too..both pitchers struggled as of late...Tor bats are hot and the White Sox bats ...well...they will get hot today here and win it in a slugfest...

                                early pick for me CSW and Over 9.5

                                GL
                                Ah, wow! I didn't see your entry. But I disagree with the over as it is too public of a play for me to take. When 84% of bettors see the same thing, the line should have gone up to 10. But it didn't move. And then the price of taking the over 9.5 went up to -120 on most books. The line was inflated to begin with. Scott Richmond is 4-1 under at home with a totals line of 8.5 or more. I can't be the one to put a stop to that streak
                                Comment
                                • cocknocker
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 11-06-08
                                  • 8001

                                  #17
                                  Dye (suspension) and Quentin out with heel problem can't hurt the cause for the under either. The Pales are only hitting .251 with them in the lineup anyway.
                                  Comment
                                  • chucksmith
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 11-06-08
                                    • 412

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by IfDntmk$itDntmkc
                                    I am rolling with you CK. Last week we started off good on Monday. Lets do it again. By the way " You have pickles in your ears Chuck" if you think the Red Shoed Rangers will fade by the All Star break.

                                    As long as the AL MVP, "yes i said it," Ian Kinsler stays healthy and in the lineup the Rangers will be battling it out with the Angels who struggle to score runs and have gapping holes in the bullpen. Especially with no K-Rod.

                                    I am loving my + 1125 odds for the Rangers to win the AL West.

                                    Keep in mind the Rangers have gone to the playoffs 3 times in their history, what was the primary color in their uniforms? Answer "RED"!!!!!

                                    2009- Primary Color RED.

                                    Go Red Shoed Rangers!!!!
                                    I am the biggest Josh Hamilton fan around but I dont see their pitching holding up in the hot Texas sun all summer.

                                    Interesting angle about the jersey color.

                                    GL with your prop bet tho. That would be a helluva payout.
                                    Comment
                                    • peterpan19
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 11-02-08
                                      • 3377

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by cocknocker
                                      Dye (suspension) and Quentin out with heel problem can't hurt the cause for the under either. The Pales are only hitting .251 with them in the lineup anyway.
                                      ...yeah true...but I think the White Sox should score 3-4 runs against Richmond and the Blus Jays should do the same against Richard too...and since we wont see a pitchers duel here today...I just have to go with the Over...White Sox just have to break out of the slump sooner or later...so why not here today...when noone expects them to win anyway...ok 86% are on the over but 97% are on the ML and even 74% are on the RL...the books just have to give one to the public here early on and I think they can make more money when the White Sox win...

                                      anyway

                                      GL
                                      Comment
                                      • peterpan19
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 11-02-08
                                        • 3377

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by chucksmith
                                        I am the biggest Josh Hamilton fan around but I dont see their pitching holding up in the hot Texas sun all summer.

                                        Interesting angle about the jersey color.

                                        GL with your prop bet tho. That would be a helluva payout.

                                        I think there was even a study about team colors...and teams with red were the most sucessfull ones...let alone my Arizona Cardinals, but hey they did it last year...so RED = WINNER = TRUE ...well we will see...but all teams have the same problems in Texas and as long as they can hit well, hell they have a chance...
                                        Comment
                                        • chucksmith
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 11-06-08
                                          • 412

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by chucksmith
                                          ARIZONA -134

                                          Just saw where ARI has pushed Garland back and will throw Haren today vs Nolasco. Nolasco has been awful after a couple of strong starts at the beginning of the year. Haren has been a hard luck pitcher getting no run support and I have been looking for a spot to play him all year. The Snakes bats will do enough to continue the 1 game streak they started in Atlanta. I am going to lay more vig than I prefer to (-134) but this is a gut play for me and I would be kicking myself all day if I didnt grab it.

                                          I think I will end up beating the closing #, as it has moved up from -130.
                                          I was wrong. Should of waited on this one. Down to -122 at 5 Dimes. Oh well, I still feel very confident it's a winner so I wont worry too much about the bad price tag I got.
                                          Comment
                                          • cocknocker
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 11-06-08
                                            • 8001

                                            #22
                                            3-4 runs apiece would create an under, peterpan, lol! But good luck to you anyway.
                                            Comment
                                            • chucksmith
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 11-06-08
                                              • 412

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by cocknocker
                                              Ah, wow! I didn't see your entry. But I disagree with the over as it is too public of a play for me to take. When 84% of bettors see the same thing, the line should have gone up to 10. But it didn't move. And then the price of taking the over 9.5 went up to -120 on most books. The line was inflated to begin with. Scott Richmond is 4-1 under at home with a totals line of 8.5 or more. I can't be the one to put a stop to that streak
                                              Total just moved to 10 at 5 Dimes
                                              Comment
                                              • peterpan19
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 11-02-08
                                                • 3377

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                3-4 runs apiece would create an under, peterpan, lol! But good luck to you anyway.
                                                thats for the starters only...and since i dont believe we will see either one long today...add in 4 runs given up by the bullpens...and the game goes over...

                                                but hell...I am ice cold right now...just look at the baseball contest right now...so you should be fine ...and the game ends something like 3-1 for the Blue Jays or something like that...

                                                just 90 min until first pitch... at least we have an early baseball match today and hopefully some offense...I can only watch one hour...so they better score some runs early on...

                                                GL
                                                Comment
                                                • SlicWilly3
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 11-05-08
                                                  • 607

                                                  #25
                                                  Early Leans for Monday:

                                                  Toronto -1 1/2 +120 Both pitchers have been garbage lately....But Toronto is the better team, and has a better bullpen to boot. I'm looking for a nice high run scoring Toronto thrashing.

                                                  CWS/Tor OVER 9 1/2 -115
                                                  See above

                                                  Pitt -108
                                                  Ohlendor has been money and is facing the Nats and a pitcher making his debut this yr

                                                  Arizona -1 1/2 +135
                                                  Haren gets the start in place of Garland....And Florida is cold

                                                  LA Dodgers -1 1/2 +145
                                                  Wolf going against a garbage Mets pitcher....LA is rested too with 3 os their normal starters getting the day off today (Sunday)

                                                  TB/Oak OVER 9 1/2 +105
                                                  2 Bums on the mound-Both with high whips last 3 starts as well.

                                                  LA/Seattle UNDER "whatever" 1st 5 innings
                                                  only.....Both bullpens are garbage, both starters pitching GREAT of late.

                                                  Good luck everybody
                                                  "Success doesn't just happen, it happens for those that take action"
                                                  -Donald J. Trump
                                                  Comment
                                                  • cocknocker
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 11-06-08
                                                    • 8001

                                                    #26
                                                    You did the right thing chucksmith. Nolasco is to be faded until he wins one. And then you take him in his next two once the correction is made. The movement is a horror movie though. There is late money being poured in on Florida and the line is down to -118 on Skybook.

                                                    Dye is gonna play and is appealing his suspension.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • cocknocker
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 11-06-08
                                                      • 8001

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by chucksmith
                                                      Total just moved to 10 at 5 Dimes
                                                      It's too late. The books already got everyone's money by now. 10 runs is really way too many for Richmond n a home game, and a play for the under is the way to go
                                                      Comment
                                                      • chucksmith
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 11-06-08
                                                        • 412

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                        You did the right thing chucksmith. Nolasco is to be faded until he wins one. And then you take him in his next two once the correction is made. The movement is a horror movie though. There is late money being poured in on Florida and the line is down to -118 on Skybook.

                                                        Dye is gonna play and is appealing his suspension.
                                                        Wow, dropping like a lead balloon. I am going to trust my instincts on this one bc I have been looking for a spot to play Haren.

                                                        Wanted action early so I am rolling with under in the CWS/Tor game as a small play. GL.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • napalmrain
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 02-13-09
                                                          • 183

                                                          #29
                                                          Hi guys,
                                                          Been reading and following you for a while now and it's time for me to contribute something.
                                                          For today I'm playing European Basketball. ACB Liga in Spain.

                                                          DKV Joventut vs Real Madrid
                                                          Pick: Under 157 @ -110
                                                          Comment
                                                          • peterpan19
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 11-02-08
                                                            • 3377

                                                            #30
                                                            now that is really something...ARZ at -110 with Haren pitching ? against a bad FLorida team...oh boy that game looks too good to be true...
                                                            Comment
                                                            • xmrblueduckyx
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 03-11-09
                                                              • 300

                                                              #31
                                                              I'm going to go with you on this one CK.
                                                              Too much of the public on BJ's,(74%) BJ's RL,(96%) and the over. (80%)

                                                              Let's go SOX! Take some early money here.
                                                              WSOX win 7-1

                                                              Also adding small:
                                                              NO score 1st inning (+105)
                                                              UNDER 5.5 Runs first 5 innings (-105)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • D.J.
                                                                SBR Rookie
                                                                • 12-28-08
                                                                • 11

                                                                #32
                                                                Should a guy making his first start really be favored over a guy with a sub 4 ERA? Ohlendorf has had his struggles on the road, but the Nationals are the worst team in baseball in my mind. It isn't like they are loaded on the mound and logic leads me to believe if this kid was good, he would have been in the bigs already. Thoughts anyone?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • michiganstatefan
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 10-26-08
                                                                  • 100

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                                  Dye (suspension) and Quentin out with heel problem can't hurt the cause for the under either. The Pales are only hitting .251 with them in the lineup anyway.

                                                                  Dont you think with dye and quentin being gone the right pick here is the jays on victoria day?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • cocknocker
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 11-06-08
                                                                    • 8001

                                                                    #34
                                                                    There's a fellow that Dexter was talking about that is supposed to be lights out when he hits the bigs. I wonder if it's this guy...But it's a good thing to back teams that bring hot unknowns down from the minors.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • cocknocker
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 11-06-08
                                                                      • 8001

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by michiganstatefan
                                                                      Dont you think with dye and quentin being gone the right pick here is the jays on victoria day?
                                                                      I never base my plays upon injuries, but if it helps my cause, then why not? Dye is actually playing while appealing his suspension. He took Cecil yard in this same series so who knows? Quentin wasn't doing shit when he was healthy.
                                                                      Comment
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